Hi everyone, just a short message to set the expectation. I'm currently working through the 200 or so matches that have been played recently collating match information, something I have done for many years. For now that takes priority before I intend to publish the provisional July 2025 FIFA ranking, a provisional November 2025 FIFA ranking prediction and simulation updates for tournaments where the recent matches have had significant effect (2026 World Cup Qualifying - Europe) and where matchups are known (2026 World Cup Qualifying - CONCACAF). For the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup I fear I'll be too late, but I also don't expect many differences given recent matches, apart perhaps for slight weakening for the US and Mexico, and a slight strengthening for Panama, Canada to mention the nations with the biggest chances of lifting the title. Quick spoiler, because the predictions/simulations use the FIFA ranking as a basis, US to beat Mexico in the final, and Canada/Panama to be the losing semi finalists, but in reality I wouldn't be surprised if the finalists are those losing semi finalists. So please bear with me for now, I expect to start publishing updates in just over a week.
Saturday, June 14, 2025
Saturday, May 31, 2025
FIFA Ranking - July 2025 - Expected Ranking
Hi everyone, with a lot of tournament activity to happen in the coming days and weeks here's a prediction for how things might end up in terms of the 10 July FIFA ranking. The biggest shift is likely to happen in the Americas where the United States, Mexico, Canada and Panama are expected to gain most points and positions. In Europe Spain are expected to gain the most points, but they're still relatively far behind Argentina. In fact, most of the top 20 are expected to gain points this time around.
1 Argentina 1898.12 0 11.96
2 Spain 1869.99 0 15.36
3 France 1862.95 0 10.24
4 England 1823.36 0 4.16
5 Brazil 1789.53 0 13.49
6 Netherlands 1758.12 0 5.68
7 Portugal 1755.53 0 5.46
8 Belgium 1748.62 0 12.86
9 Italy 1727.42 0 9.11
10 Germany 1717.78 0 0.79
11 Croatia 1707.51 0 8.85
12 United States 1703.73 4 54.91
13 Morocco 1698.76 -1 4.52
14 Mexico 1696.92 3 49.97
15 Uruguay 1695.23 -2 15.74
16 Colombia 1679.20 -3 0.16
17 Japan 1665.71 -2 13.07
18 Iran 1648.88 0 11.49
19 Senegal 1630.06 0 -0.26
20 Switzerland 1625.23 0 0.48
21 Denmark 1621.29 0 3.76
22 Austria 1591.24 0 11.03
23 South Korea 1587.08 0 12.15
24 Canada 1576.04 6 44.46
25 Ecuador 1570.68 -1 2.73
26 Ukraine 1562.10 -1 2.29
27 Panama 1558.36 6 40.71
28 Australia 1554.14 -2 -0.41
29 Türkiye 1543.33 -2 -8.14
30 Sweden 1535.47 -2 -0.57
30 Serbia 1535.42 1 11.51
32 Wales 1529.20 -3 -6.37
33 Poland 1527.40 1 10.04
34 Egypt 1518.79 0 0.00
35 Russia 1518.55 0 2.28
36 Algeria 1508.75 0 1.59
37 Hungary 1505.74 0 2.39
38 Norway 1494.80 0 -2.37
39 Greece 1492.90 1 3.08
40 Czechia 1492.40 -1 0.97
41 Côte d'Ivoire 1490.81 0 3.55
42 Nigeria 1485.50 1 4.16
43 Scotland 1484.66 1 4.36
44 Slovakia 1481.52 2 3.74
45 Tunisia 1478.56 4 4.46
46 Venezuela 1477.54 1 0.70
47 Romania 1474.38 -2 -4.84
48 Cameroon 1472.05 2 6.33
49 Costa Rica 1469.80 5 10.67
50 Slovenia 1469.76 1 7.10
51 Chile 1466.62 1 4.71
52 Peru 1464.97 -10 -18.50
53 Mali 1464.72 0 4.49
54 Paraguay 1462.35 -6 -13.59
55 South Africa 1455.30 1 10.29
56 Qatar 1448.25 -1 -8.33
56 Uzbekistan 1448.22 1 11.20
58 Saudi Arabia 1432.37 0 13.41
59 Ireland 1412.80 1 0.57
60 Democratic Republic of Congo 1404.96 1 -1.63
61 Iraq 1404.54 -2 -8.85
62 Jordan 1400.25 0 11.09
63 Jamaica 1394.47 0 7.81
64 Burkina Faso 1383.94 0 -1.13
65 United Arab Emirates 1380.40 0 -2.30
66 North Macedonia 1378.54 1 2.96
67 Georgia 1375.26 1 2.21
68 Albania 1373.29 -2 -2.66
69 Honduras 1354.48 6 20.98
70 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1349.11 0 -1.74
71 Cape Verde Islands 1346.67 1 2.30
72 Finland 1346.55 -3 -13.24
73 Northern Ireland 1345.91 -2 -2.75
74 Ghana 1333.33 2 0.20
74 Iceland 1333.02 0 -3.53
76 Montenegro 1332.32 -3 -5.04
77 Israel 1326.56 1 4.78
78 Oman 1325.33 -1 1.42
79 Gabon 1315.92 0 6.10
80 El Salvador 1311.04 1 10.23
81 Guinea 1292.89 1 0.26
82 Bolivia 1290.71 -2 -17.41
83 Zambia 1290.18 5 13.84
83 Haiti 1290.16 0 -1.38
85 Bulgaria 1289.34 0 0.31
86 Angola 1288.46 1 8.91
87 Bahrain 1280.06 -3 -9.94
88 New Zealand 1278.97 -2 -5.71
89 Uganda 1274.28 0 0.45
90 China 1261.37 4 10.42
91 Syria 1260.82 2 7.01
92 Equatorial Guinea 1256.51 0 0.76
93 Luxembourg 1255.13 -2 -6.76
94 Curaçao 1248.99 -4 -15.79
95 Thailand 1247.07 4 12.76
96 Mozambique 1242.71 0 3.37
97 Benin 1238.97 -2 -1.48
98 Kosovo 1237.75 -1 -0.63
99 Belarus 1237.24 -1 1.88
100 Palestine 1223.91 1 -0.75
101 Tajikistan 1215.04 3 11.62
102 Kyrgyzstan 1208.03 1 2.35
103 Armenia 1204.73 -1 -3.58
104 Comoros 1203.24 0 0.11
105 Trinidad and Tobago 1195.15 -5 -34.37
106 Vietnam 1194.85 3 11.01
107 Namibia 1194.31 1 2.02
108 Tanzania 1193.26 -1 -2.77
109 Lebanon 1184.94 3 6.99
110 Mauritania 1183.81 0 4.26
111 Kenya 1178.53 0 0.00
112 Guatemala 1178.19 -6 -18.92
113 Sudan 1173.60 1 0.01
114 Kazakhstan 1165.23 -2 -12.43
115 Madagascar 1159.90 0 -2.96
116 Libya 1155.19 0 0.00
117 Zimbabwe 1153.48 -1 -7.03
117 Azerbaijan 1153.00 2 2.37
119 Togo 1145.73 1 -3.77
120 Sierra Leone 1140.06 0 0.00
121 Niger 1139.77 1 -3.47
122 North Korea 1138.97 -4 -14.41
123 India 1138.34 4 6.31
124 Congo 1136.31 0 0.00
125 Estonia 1130.95 -4 -13.52
126 Indonesia 1130.08 -3 -12.84
127 Gambia 1126.45 -1 -6.97
128 Rwanda 1125.47 2 -1.89
129 Guinea-Bissau 1124.58 -1 -3.70
130 Nicaragua 1122.43 3 8.15
131 Cyprus 1119.44 -3 -8.77
131 Malawi 1119.26 1 0.91
133 Malaysia 1110.54 -2 -13.03
134 Kuwait 1098.87 0 -13.25
135 Central African Republic 1097.54 0 -4.26
136 Surinam 1097.11 1 0.50
137 Botswana 1095.50 -1 -5.70
138 Faroe Islands 1089.74 3 4.62
139 Burundi 1086.70 1 0.37
140 Latvia 1081.66 -2 -10.83
141 Lithuania 1081.65 2 9.09
142 Dominican Republic 1076.38 -3 -10.83
143 Turkmenistan 1067.40 -1 -8.73
144 Liberia 1061.52 0 -6.78
145 St. Kitts and Nevis 1060.92 0 -4.07
146 Ethiopia 1060.62 0 0.00
147 Philippines 1053.85 -2 -9.16
148 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
149 Fiji 1043.44 0 0.00
150 New Caledonia 1039.55 0 0.00
151 Lesotho 1037.44 -3 -8.91
151 Guyana 1037.11 1 -0.80
153 Moldova 1028.41 1 -2.96
154 Hong Kong 1026.79 -1 -6.26
155 Eswatini 1019.16 0 -3.71
155 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
157 Singapore 1012.29 4 10.03
158 Yemen 1008.75 0 -8.81
159 Puerto Rico 1005.67 -2 -13.31
160 Antigua and Barbuda 1004.67 -1 -6.30
161 Myanmar 1004.06 1 8.85
162 Afghanistan 1001.37 -2 -7.01
163 Maldives 995.64 1 9.22
164 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
165 Taiwan 988.83 1 8.99
166 Bermuda 987.24 2 9.71
167 Cuba 980.63 0 0.92
168 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 979.63 4 13.58
169 St. Lucia 978.49 -4 -7.23
170 South Sudan 975.60 0 0.00
171 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
172 Malta 964.99 -3 -11.37
173 Grenada 954.91 1 0.46
174 Andorra 954.06 -1 -3.35
175 Barbados 944.67 1 11.38
176 Nepal 943.37 -1 7.08
177 Chad 929.56 0 4.43
178 Belize 916.85 1 -2.40
179 Mauritius 915.33 -1 -6.28
180 Cambodia 910.21 1 -2.47
181 Bhutan 906.56 1 -0.24
182 Montserrat 904.54 -2 -9.71
183 Dominica 901.33 1 1.33
184 Brunei 898.00 1 4.65
185 Bangladesh 894.01 -2 -10.15
186 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
187 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
188 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
189 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
190 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
190 Laos 865.23 -1 -11.17
190 São Tomé and Príncipe 865.09 3 0.01
193 Djibouti 861.31 -1 -4.44
194 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
195 Cayman Islands 853.37 -4 -13.34
196 Aruba 848.82 -1 -14.76
197 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
198 Gibraltar 835.18 -1 -8.02
199 Somalia 832.13 0 0.00
200 Timor Leste 830.47 -2 -9.06
201 Pakistan 829.41 -2 -8.85
202 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
203 Seychelles 820.71 0 0.00
204 Sri Lanka 820.36 -3 -13.42
205 Liechtenstein 811.68 1 -2.18
206 Bahamas 807.40 -1 -11.18
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 766.81 -1 -13.48
210 Anguilla 759.56 0 -9.75
211 San Marino 738.24 0 -3.12
FIFA Ranking - July 2025 - Expected Results
Below are the point exchanges for matches that have already been played, and the expected results. For the COSAFA Cup matches please don't expect too much from the predictions because for now my software doesn't handle situation very well yet where countries send their "A" ("B") teams.
Actual Results
Date Tournament I R WExp Pts1
2025-04-17 Anguilla v British Virgin Isl Friendly 2025 5 X 0.49 0.05
2025-04-20 Anguilla v British Virgin Isl Friendly 2025 5 1 0.49 2.55
2025-05-03 Gambia v Algeria African Nations Champ 2024 Q 5 X 0.19 1.54
2025-05-03 Malawi v South Africa African Nations Champ 2024 Q 5 1 0.22 3.89
2025-05-08 Dominica v Barbados Friendly 2025 5 X 0.47 0.16
2025-05-09 Algeria v Gambia African Nations Champ 2024 Q 5 1 0.81 0.97
2025-05-11 Dominica v Barbados Friendly 2025 5 X 0.47 0.16
2025-05-11 South Africa v Malawi African Nations Champ 2024 Q 5 1 0.77 1.14
2025-05-20 St. Kitts & Nevis v St. Vincent & Gren Friendly 2025 5 2 0.59 -2.97
2025-05-25 St. Vincent & Gren v St. Kitts & Nevis Friendly 2025 5 1 0.41 2.94
2025-05-27 Trinidad and Tobago v Jamaica Friendly 2025 5 2 0.35 -1.77
2025-05-28 Nigeria v Ghana Friendly 2025 5 1 0.64 1.81
2025-05-28 Oman v Lebanon Friendly 2025 5 1 0.64 1.82
2025-05-29 Malaysia v Cape Verde Islands Friendly 2025 5 X 0.30 1.00
2025-05-29 St. Vincent & Gren v British Virgin Isl Friendly 2025 5 X 0.68 -0.89Expected Results
Date Tournament I R WExp Win Draw Loss PW1 PL1 PW2 PL2 2025-05-31 Grenada v Anguilla Friendly 2025 5 1 0.67 1.66 -0.84 -3.34 2025-05-31 Guatemala v El Salvador Friendly 2025 5 2 0.40 2.99 0.49 -2.01 2025-05-31 Nigeria v Jamaica Friendly 2025 5 1 0.59 2.05 -0.45 -2.95 0.80 -0.45 1.70 0.45 2025-05-31 Ghana v Trinidad and Tobago Friendly 2025 5 1 0.60 2.01 -0.49 -2.99 0.76 -0.49 1.74 0.49 2025-06-01 Puerto Rico v Nicaragua Friendly 2025 5 2 0.41 2.95 0.45 -2.05 2025-06-02 Tunisia v Burkina Faso Friendly 2025 10 1 0.58 4.15 -0.85 -5.85 2025-06-03 Malaysia v Cape Verde Islands Friendly 2025 10 2 0.30 6.98 1.98 -3.02 2025-06-04 Bangladesh v Bhutan Friendly 2025 10 X 0.50 5.03 0.03 -4.97 2025-06-04 Barbados v Aruba World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.57 10.85 -1.65 -14.15 2025-06-04 Bermuda v Cayman Islands World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.60 9.88 -2.62 -15.12 2025-06-04 Dominica v British Virgin Isl World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.61 9.63 -2.87 -15.37 2025-06-04 Germany v Portugal UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 25 X-PL 0.47 13.29 0.79 0.00 7.04 0.79 5.46 0.00 2025-06-04 Grenada v Bahamas World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.63 9.28 -3.22 -15.72 2025-06-04 Mauritius v Zimbabwe COSAFA Cup 2025 10 2 0.29 7.14 2.14 -2.86 2025-06-04 Montserrat v Belize World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.50 12.62 0.12 -12.38 2025-06-04 South Africa v Mozambique COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.69 3.15 -1.85 -6.85 2025-06-04 St. Vincent & Gren v Anguilla World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.68 7.91 -4.59 -17.09 2025-06-04 Thailand v India Friendly 2025 10 1 0.60 4.03 -0.97 -5.97 2025-06-05 Algeria v Rwanda Friendly 2025 10 1 0.81 1.89 -3.11 -8.11 2025-06-05 Angola v Namibia COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.58 4.17 -0.83 -5.83 2025-06-05 Australia v Japan World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.41 14.83 2.33 -10.17 2025-06-05 Bahrain v Saudi Arabia World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.38 15.53 3.03 -9.47 2025-06-05 Belarus v Kazakhstan Friendly 2025 10 1 0.56 4.45 -0.55 -5.55 2025-06-05 Cambodia v Tajikistan Friendly 2025 10 2 0.25 7.53 2.53 -2.47 2025-06-05 Chile v Argentina World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.16 20.90 8.40 -4.10 2025-06-05 Ecuador v Brazil World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.31 17.24 4.74 -7.76 2025-06-05 Georgia v Faroe Islands Friendly 2025 10 1 0.75 2.49 -2.51 -7.51 2025-06-05 Hong Kong v Nepal Friendly 2025 10 1 0.59 4.08 -0.92 -5.92 2025-06-05 Indonesia v China World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.40 15.05 2.55 -9.95 2025-06-05 Iraq v South Korea World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.35 16.25 3.75 -8.75 2025-06-05 Kuwait v Palestine World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.39 15.16 2.66 -9.84 2025-06-05 Malawi v Lesotho COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.57 4.29 -0.71 -5.71 2025-06-05 Mali v Democratic Republic Congo Friendly 2025 10 1 0.55 4.49 -0.51 -5.51 2025-06-05 North Korea v Kyrgyzstan World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.45 13.75 1.25 -11.25 2025-06-05 Oman v Jordan World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.44 14.01 1.51 -10.99 2025-06-05 Paraguay v Uruguay World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.31 17.15 4.65 -7.85 2025-06-05 Qatar v Iran World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.33 16.67 4.17 -8.33 2025-06-05 Singapore v Maldives Friendly 2025 10 X 0.52 4.85 -0.15 -5.15 2025-06-05 Spain v France UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 25 X-PW 0.50 12.45 0.00 0.00 6.20 0.00 6.30 0.05 2025-06-05 Sri Lanka v Brunei Friendly 2025 10 2 0.44 5.57 0.57 -4.43 2025-06-05 United Arab Emirates v Uzbekistan World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.45 13.80 1.30 -11.20 2025-06-06 Antigua and Barbuda v Cuba World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.53 11.75 -0.75 -13.25 2025-06-06 Bulgaria v Cyprus Friendly 2025 10 1 0.65 3.50 -1.50 -6.50 2025-06-06 Burkina Faso v Zimbabwe Friendly 2025 10 1 0.70 3.03 -1.97 -6.97 2025-06-06 Cameroon v Uganda Friendly 2025 10 1 0.68 3.24 -1.76 -6.76 2025-06-06 Colombia v Peru World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.68 8.02 -4.48 -16.98 2025-06-06 Curaçao v St. Lucia World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.74 6.38 -6.12 -18.62 2025-06-06 Czechia v Montenegro World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.64 8.91 -3.59 -16.09 2025-06-06 Equatorial Guinea v Gambia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.61 3.85 -1.15 -6.15 2025-06-06 Estonia v Israel World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.34 16.60 4.10 -8.40 2025-06-06 Gabon v Guinea-Bissau Friendly 2025 10 1 0.67 3.33 -1.67 -6.67 2025-06-06 Gibraltar v Croatia World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.04 24.10 11.60 -0.90 2025-06-06 Guatemala v Dominican Republic World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.60 9.95 -2.55 -15.05 2025-06-06 Guinea v Niger Friendly 2025 10 1 0.64 3.60 -1.40 -6.40 2025-06-06 Hungary v Sweden Friendly 2025 10 X 0.47 5.31 0.31 -4.69 2025-06-06 Ireland v Senegal Friendly 2025 10 2 0.30 6.98 1.98 -3.02 2025-06-06 Kosovo v Armenia Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.71 -0.29 -5.29 2025-06-06 Luxembourg v Slovenia Friendly 2025 10 2 0.32 6.84 1.84 -3.16 2025-06-06 Mauritania v Central African Rep Friendly 2025 10 1 0.57 4.26 -0.74 -5.74 2025-06-06 Morocco v Tunisia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.70 3.04 -1.96 -6.96 2025-06-06 Nicaragua v Guyana World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.57 10.63 -1.87 -14.37 2025-06-06 North Macedonia v Belgium World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.20 19.98 7.48 -5.02 2025-06-06 Norway v Italy World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.30 17.51 5.01 -7.49 2025-06-06 Poland v Moldova Friendly 2025 10 1 0.87 1.34 -3.66 -8.66 2025-06-06 Russia v Nigeria Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.70 -0.30 -5.30 2025-06-06 Scotland v Iceland Friendly 2025 10 1 0.63 3.65 -1.35 -6.35 2025-06-06 South Africa v Tanzania Friendly 2025 10 1 0.72 2.77 -2.23 -7.23 2025-06-06 Sudan v Liberia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.60 4.00 -1.00 -6.00 2025-06-06 Surinam v Puerto Rico World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.58 10.60 -1.90 -14.40 2025-06-06 Trinidad and Tobago v St. Kitts & Nevis World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.65 8.63 -3.87 -16.37 2025-06-06 Venezuela v Bolivia World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.66 8.59 -3.91 -16.41 2025-06-06 Wales v Liechtenstein World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.94 1.47 -11.03 -23.53 2025-06-06 Zambia v Comoros COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.57 4.30 -0.70 -5.70 2025-06-06 Zambia v Togo Friendly 2025 10 1 0.62 3.77 -1.23 -6.23 2025-06-07 Albania v Serbia World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.36 15.96 3.46 -9.04 2025-06-07 Andorra v England World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.04 24.12 11.62 -0.88 2025-06-07 Anguilla v El Salvador World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.11 22.21 9.71 -2.79 2025-06-07 Aruba v Haiti World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.16 21.09 8.59 -3.91 2025-06-07 Austria v Romania World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.60 10.11 -2.39 -14.89 2025-06-07 Bahamas v Costa Rica World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.08 23.09 10.59 -1.91 2025-06-07 Belize v Panama World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.09 22.72 10.22 -2.28 2025-06-07 Bosnia & Herzegovina v San Marino World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.91 2.20 -10.30 -22.80 2025-06-07 British Virgin Isl v Jamaica World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.09 22.86 10.36 -2.14 2025-06-07 Canada v Ukraine Friendly 2025 10 X 0.47 5.27 0.27 -4.73 2025-06-07 Cayman Islands v Honduras World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.14 21.54 9.04 -3.46 2025-06-07 Denmark v Northern Ireland Friendly 2025 10 1 0.74 2.63 -2.37 -7.37 2025-06-07 Djibouti v São Tomé & Príncipe Friendly 2025 10 X 0.50 4.99 -0.01 -5.01 2025-06-07 Finland v Netherlands World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.18 20.46 7.96 -4.54 2025-06-07 Greece v Slovakia Friendly 2025 10 X 0.51 4.88 -0.12 -5.12 2025-06-07 Latvia v Azerbaijan Friendly 2025 10 2 0.44 5.56 0.56 -4.44 2025-06-07 Malta v Lithuania World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.41 14.78 2.28 -10.22 2025-06-07 Mexico v Switzerland Friendly 2025 10 X 0.52 4.79 -0.21 -5.21 2025-06-07 Mozambique v Mauritius COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.77 2.28 -2.72 -7.72 2025-06-07 New Zealand v Côte d'Ivoire Friendly 2025 10 2 0.31 6.85 1.85 -3.15 2025-06-07 South Africa v Zimbabwe COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.75 2.49 -2.51 -7.51 2025-06-07 United States v Türkiye Friendly 2025 10 1 0.59 4.08 -0.92 -5.92 2025-06-08 Angola v Lesotho COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.72 2.83 -2.17 -7.17 2025-06-08 Democratic Republic Congo v Madagascar Friendly 2025 10 1 0.71 2.85 -2.15 -7.15 2025-06-08 Georgia v Cape Verde Islands Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.72 -0.28 -5.28 2025-06-08 Germany v France UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 25 2 0.37 15.67 3.17 -9.33 9.42 3.17 3.08 0.00 2025-06-08 Namibia v Malawi COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.56 4.40 -0.60 -5.60 2025-06-08 Portugal v Spain UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 25 2 0.40 14.99 2.49 -10.01 8.74 2.49 3.76 0.00 2025-06-09 Belgium v Wales World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.69 7.85 -4.65 -17.15 2025-06-09 Cameroon v Equatorial Guinea Friendly 2025 10 1 0.69 3.09 -1.91 -6.91 2025-06-09 Comoros v Botswana COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.59 4.07 -0.93 -5.93 2025-06-09 Croatia v Czechia World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.68 7.94 -4.56 -17.06 2025-06-09 Estonia v Norway World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.20 19.88 7.38 -5.12 2025-06-09 Faroe Islands v Gibraltar World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.72 7.11 -5.39 -17.89 2025-06-09 Gabon v Liberia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.72 2.78 -2.22 -7.22 2025-06-09 Guinea-Bissau v Burundi Friendly 2025 10 X 0.54 4.63 -0.37 -5.37 2025-06-09 Italy v Moldova World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.94 1.62 -10.88 -23.38 2025-06-09 Kazakhstan v North Macedonia World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.32 17.02 4.52 -7.98 2025-06-09 Kosovo v Comoros Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.66 -0.34 -5.34 2025-06-09 Liechtenstein v Scotland Friendly 2025 10 2 0.07 9.29 4.29 -0.71 2025-06-09 Madagascar v Eswatini COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.63 3.71 -1.29 -6.29 2025-06-09 Montenegro v Armenia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.61 3.87 -1.13 -6.13 2025-06-09 Morocco v Benin Friendly 2025 10 1 0.85 1.48 -3.52 -8.52 2025-06-09 Uganda v Gambia Friendly 2025 10 1 0.63 3.68 -1.32 -6.32 2025-06-10 Afghanistan v Syria Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.28 17.99 5.49 -7.01 2025-06-10 Argentina v Colombia World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.69 7.86 -4.64 -17.14 2025-06-10 Azerbaijan v Hungary Friendly 2025 10 2 0.21 7.92 2.92 -2.08 2025-06-10 Bangladesh v Singapore Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.41 14.82 2.32 -10.18 2025-06-10 Belarus v Russia Friendly 2025 10 2 0.26 7.43 2.43 -2.57 2025-06-10 Bolivia v Chile World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.35 16.18 3.68 -8.82 2025-06-10 Brazil v Paraguay World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.77 5.74 -6.76 -19.26 2025-06-10 Brunei v Bhutan Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 X 0.49 12.72 0.22 -12.28 2025-06-10 Canada v Côte d'Ivoire Friendly 2025 10 X 0.54 4.60 -0.40 -5.40 2025-06-10 Chad v Djibouti Friendly 2025 10 1 0.56 4.43 -0.57 -5.57 2025-06-10 China v Bahrain World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.48 12.97 0.47 -12.03 2025-06-10 Costa Rica v Trinidad and Tobago World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.70 7.38 -5.12 -17.62 2025-06-10 Cuba v Bermuda World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.49 12.67 0.17 -12.33 2025-06-10 Denmark v Lithuania Friendly 2025 10 1 0.89 1.13 -3.87 -8.87 2025-06-10 Dominican Republic v Dominica World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.66 8.62 -3.88 -16.38 2025-06-10 El Salvador v Surinam World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.68 7.96 -4.54 -17.04 2025-06-10 England v Senegal Friendly 2025 10 1 0.67 3.28 -1.72 -6.72 2025-06-10 Finland v Poland World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.35 16.30 3.80 -8.70 2025-06-10 Greece v Bulgaria Friendly 2025 10 1 0.68 3.19 -1.81 -6.81 2025-06-10 Guyana v Montserrat World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.61 9.83 -2.67 -15.17 2025-06-10 Haiti v Curaçao World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.52 11.92 -0.58 -13.08 2025-06-10 Honduras v Antigua and Barbuda World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.78 5.55 -6.95 -19.45 2025-06-10 Hong Kong v India Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.41 14.66 2.16 -10.34 2025-06-10 Iran v North Korea World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.87 3.16 -9.34 -21.84 2025-06-10 Jamaica v Guatemala World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.67 8.27 -4.23 -16.73 2025-06-10 Japan v Indonesia World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.88 2.89 -9.61 -22.11 2025-06-10 Jordan v Iraq World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.50 12.61 0.11 -12.39 2025-06-10 Kyrgyzstan v United Arab Emirates World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.36 16.10 3.60 -8.90 2025-06-10 Laos v Nepal Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.45 13.83 1.33 -11.17 2025-06-10 Latvia v Albania World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.26 18.62 6.12 -6.38 2025-06-10 Luxembourg v Ireland Friendly 2025 10 2 0.36 6.40 1.40 -3.60 2025-06-10 Malaysia v Vietnam Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.44 13.99 1.49 -11.01 2025-06-10 Mexico v Türkiye Friendly 2025 10 1 0.59 4.06 -0.94 -5.94 2025-06-10 Mozambique v Zimbabwe COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.58 4.23 -0.77 -5.77 2025-06-10 Netherlands v Malta World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.95 1.15 -11.35 -23.85 2025-06-10 New Zealand v Ukraine Friendly 2025 10 2 0.26 7.44 2.44 -2.56 2025-06-10 Northern Ireland v Iceland Friendly 2025 10 X 0.51 4.87 -0.13 -5.13 2025-06-10 Pakistan v Myanmar Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.35 16.15 3.65 -8.85 2025-06-10 Palestine v Oman World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.42 14.41 1.91 -10.59 2025-06-10 Panama v Nicaragua World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.82 4.53 -7.97 -20.47 2025-06-10 Peru v Ecuador World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.42 14.51 2.01 -10.49 2025-06-10 Philippines v Tajikistan Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.37 15.84 3.34 -9.16 2025-06-10 Puerto Rico v St. Vincent & Gren World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.53 11.84 -0.66 -13.16 2025-06-10 Romania v Cyprus World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.79 5.26 -7.24 -19.74 2025-06-10 San Marino v Austria World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.04 24.08 11.58 -0.92 2025-06-10 Saudi Arabia v Australia World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.39 15.24 2.74 -9.76 2025-06-10 Serbia v Andorra World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.90 2.47 -10.03 -22.53 2025-06-10 Slovakia v Israel Friendly 2025 10 1 0.64 3.62 -1.38 -6.38 2025-06-10 Slovenia v Bosnia & Herzegovina Friendly 2025 10 1 0.61 3.93 -1.07 -6.07 2025-06-10 South Africa v Mauritius COSAFA Cup 2025 10 1 0.89 1.14 -3.86 -8.86 2025-06-10 South Korea v Kuwait World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.86 3.40 -9.10 -21.60 2025-06-10 Sri Lanka v Taiwan Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.36 16.01 3.51 -8.99 2025-06-10 St. Kitts & Nevis v Grenada World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.58 10.48 -2.02 -14.52 2025-06-10 St. Lucia v Barbados World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.53 11.65 -0.85 -13.35 2025-06-10 Sweden v Algeria Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.74 -0.26 -5.26 2025-06-10 Timor Leste v Maldives Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.36 15.94 3.44 -9.06 2025-06-10 Tunisia v Guinea Friendly 2025 10 1 0.67 3.35 -1.65 -6.65 2025-06-10 Turkmenistan v Thailand Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.35 16.27 3.77 -8.73 2025-06-10 United States v Switzerland Friendly 2025 10 X 0.53 4.73 -0.27 -5.27 2025-06-10 Uruguay v Venezuela World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.68 7.89 -4.61 -17.11 2025-06-10 Uzbekistan v Qatar World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.50 12.50 0.00 -12.50 2025-06-10 Yemen v Lebanon Asian Cup 2027 Q 25 2 0.35 16.19 3.69 -8.81 2025-06-10 Zambia v Sudan Friendly 2025 10 1 0.60 3.99 -1.01 -6.01 2025-06-10 Zimbabwe v Niger Friendly 2025 10 X 0.51 4.87 -0.13 -5.13 2025-06-11 Botswana v Zambia COSAFA Cup 2025 5 2 0.32 3.38 0.88 -1.62 2025-06-11 Malawi v Angola COSAFA Cup 2025 5 2 0.35 3.27 0.77 -1.73 2025-06-11 Namibia v Lesotho COSAFA Cup 2025 5 1 0.64 1.79 -0.71 -3.21 2025-06-13 Angola v Madagascar COSAFA Cup 2025 5 1 0.62 1.91 -0.59 -3.09 0.66 -0.59 1.84 0.59 2025-06-13 South Africa v Zambia COSAFA Cup 2025 5 1 0.65 1.75 -0.75 -3.25 0.50 -0.75 2.00 0.75 2025-06-14 Mexico v Dominican Republic CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.90 3.59 -13.91 -31.41 2025-06-15 Costa Rica v Surinam CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.80 6.83 -10.67 -28.17 2025-06-15 Haiti v Saudi Arabia CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 2 0.38 21.58 4.08 -13.42 2025-06-15 South Africa v Angola COSAFA Cup 2025 5 1 0.65 1.74 -0.76 -3.26 0.49 -0.76 2.01 0.76 2025-06-15 United States v Trinidad and Tobago CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.84 5.72 -11.78 -29.28 2025-06-15 Zambia v Madagascar COSAFA Cup 2025 5 1 0.62 1.90 -0.60 -3.10 0.65 -0.60 1.85 0.60 2025-06-16 Jamaica v Guatemala CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.68 11.10 -6.40 -23.90 2025-06-17 Canada v Honduras CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.67 11.42 -6.08 -23.58 2025-06-17 Curaçao v El Salvador CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 X 0.46 18.90 1.40 -16.10 2025-06-18 Costa Rica v Dominican Republic CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.82 6.34 -11.16 -28.66 2025-06-18 Surinam v Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 2 0.10 31.37 13.87 -3.63 2025-06-19 Trinidad and Tobago v Haiti CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 2 0.44 19.51 2.01 -15.49 2025-06-19 United States v Saudi Arabia CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.70 10.35 -7.15 -24.65 2025-06-20 Guatemala v Panama CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 2 0.21 27.51 10.01 -7.49 2025-06-21 Curaçao v Canada CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 2 0.26 25.83 8.33 -9.17 2025-06-21 Honduras v El Salvador CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 X 0.52 16.86 -0.64 -18.14 2025-06-22 Dominican Republic v Surinam CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 X 0.49 17.93 0.43 -17.07 2025-06-22 Mexico v Costa Rica CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.66 11.79 -5.71 -23.21 2025-06-22 Saudi Arabia v Trinidad and Tobago CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.70 10.64 -6.86 -24.36 2025-06-22 United States v Haiti CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.81 6.78 -10.72 -28.22 2025-06-23 Canada v El Salvador CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.71 9.99 -7.51 -25.01 2025-06-23 Honduras v Curaçao CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.56 15.28 -2.22 -19.72 2025-06-24 Panama v Jamaica CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 35 1 0.62 13.41 -4.09 -21.59 2025-06-28 Canada v Jamaica CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.66 13.78* -6.22* -26.22* 3.78 0.00 16.22 6.22 2025-06-28 Mexico v Saudi Arabia CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.71 11.47* -8.53* -28.53* 1.47 0.00 18.53 8.53 2025-06-29 Panama v Honduras CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.68 12.69* -7.31* -27.31* 2.69 0.00 17.31 7.31 2025-06-29 United States v Costa Rica CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.69 12.49* -7.51* -27.51* 2.49 0.00 17.51 7.51 2025-07-02 Mexico v Panama CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.62 15.36* -4.64* -24.64* 5.36 0.00 14.64 4.64 2025-07-02 United States v Canada CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 1 0.61 15.76* -4.24* -24.24* 5.76 0.00 14.24 4.24 2025-07-06 United States v Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 40 X-PW 0.51 19.73* -0.27* -20.27* 9.73 0.00 10.27 0.27
Column information:I = Importance
R = Result
WExp = (FIFA) Win Expectancy
Pts1 = Points exchanged for team 1, inverse for team 2
Win = Points gained if team 1 wins, inverse for team 2 (loss) Draw = Points gained in case of draw, inverse for team 2 Loss = Points gained if team 1 loses, inverse for team 2 (win)
PW1/2 = Penalty win for team 1/2
PL21/2 = Penalty loss for team 1/2
X-PW = A draw, but team 1 expected to win penalty shoot-out (based on FIFA ranking win expectancy)
X-PL = A draw, but team 1 expected to lose penalty shoot-out (based on FIFA ranking win expectancy)
* = Losing team cannot lose points, but points are left as indication for team 2 (inverse it though!)
Sunday, April 27, 2025
2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA 10000 Simulations (update 27 April 2025)
Qualifying Groups
With this post I've now also included the playoffs in the simulation, and as such I can give a total qualifying percentage for each country.
NOTE: The "Pl-off" column suggests the chance to have to play the playoff, the "Q-Totl" suggest the total chance to qualify either as group winner or as playoff path winner, and the "NotQual" column suggest the chances of not qualifying, including via the playoffs.
Group A
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Germany 69.34% 21.27% 7.18% 2.21% 30.66% 82.40% 17.60%
Slovakia 21.05% 43.53% 23.50% 11.92% 43.53% 31.96% 68.04%
Luxembourg 5.73% 19.23% 30.96% 44.08% 19.23% 7.62% 92.38%
Northern Ireland 3.88% 15.97% 38.36% 41.79% 85.02% 13.45% 86.55%
Group B
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Switzerland 49.54% 29.26% 16.42% 4.78% 29.26% 61.00% 39.00%
Sweden 29.88% 34.12% 26.39% 9.61% 69.47% 49.20% 50.80%
Slovenia 17.91% 27.98% 35.98% 18.13% 27.98% 24.29% 75.71%
Kosovo 2.67% 8.64% 21.21% 67.48% 8.64% 3.39% 96.61%
Group C
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Denmark 50.54% 28.87% 16.80% 3.79% 29.59% 62.06% 37.94%
Greece 24.19% 32.74% 31.54% 11.53% 32.74% 33.00% 67.00%
Scotland 23.11% 31.74% 33.02% 12.13% 33.09% 32.01% 67.99%
Belarus 2.16% 6.65% 18.64% 72.55% 6.65% 2.77% 97.23%
Group D
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
France 83.99% 13.62% 2.24% 0.15% 16.01% 93.92% 6.08%
Ukraine 12.81% 55.54% 24.78% 6.96% 55.45% 32.27% 67.73%
Iceland 2.78% 24.33% 49.06% 23.83% 24.33% 6.52% 94.48%
Azerbaijan 0.42% 6.60% 23.92% 69.06% 6.60% 0.80% 99.20%
Group E
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Spain 81.56% 14.62% 3.24% 0.58% 18.44% 92.38% 7.62%
Türkiye 12.67% 49.19% 25.61% 12.53% 49.19% 29.21% 70.79%
Georgia 3.67% 21.34% 38.58% 36.41% 21.34% 6.71% 93.29%
Bulgaria 2.10% 14.85% 32.57% 50.48% 14.85% 3.73% 96.27%
Group F
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Portugal 72.00% 20.53% 6.13% 1.34% 28.00% 86.50% 13.50%
Hungary 18.31% 43.70% 27.38% 10.61% 44.01% 32.12% 67.88%
Ireland 8.06% 26.54% 41.13% 24.27% 26.54% 12.66% 87.34%
Armenia 1.63% 9.23% 25.36% 63.78% 9.23% 2.42% 97.58%
Group G
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Netherlands 73.50% 21.89% 4.33% 0.28% 0.00% 22.08% 84.34% 15.66%
Poland 22.38% 56.02% 19.93% 1.64% 0.03% 56.06% 37.92% 62.08%
Finland 4.04% 21.06% 63.26% 10.82% 0.82% 21.06% 7.47% 92.53%
Lithuania 0.07% 0.84% 9.58% 58.72% 30.79% 0.84% 0.11% 99.89%
Malta 0.01% 0.19% 2.90% 28.54% 68.36% 0.19% 0.01% 99.99%
Group H
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Austria 56.65% 25.08% 15.55% 2.69% 0.03% 25.08% 65.36% 34.64%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 24.63% 38.85% 32.20% 4.20% 0.12% 38.85% 28.56% 71.44%
Romania 18.05% 32.59% 39.06% 10.19% 0.11% 81.84% 36.90% 63.10%
Cyprus 0.67% 3.45% 13.04% 79.66% 3.18% 3.45% 0.82% 99.18%
San Marino 0.00% 0.03% 0.15% 3.26% 96.56% 25.01% 0.01% 99.99%
Group I
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Italy 68.49% 27.16% 3.74% 0.59% 0.02% 27.32% 81.91% 18.09%
Norway 29.61% 58.44% 10.19% 1.75% 0.01% 70.39% 45.51% 54.49%
Israel 1.62% 10.37% 58.37% 24.37% 5.27% 10.52% 2.87% 97.13%
Estonia 0.28% 3.84% 23.81% 59.00% 13.07% 3.84% 0.47% 99.53%
Moldova 0.00% 0.19% 3.89% 14.29% 81.63% 61.15% 1.17% 98.83%
Group J
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Belgium 71.03% 20.88% 7.03% 1.05% 0.01% 21.16% 81.64% 18.36%
Wales 22.48% 51.24% 22.34% 3.91% 0.03% 77.52% 45.65% 54.35%
North Macedonia 5.73% 23.17% 51.29% 19.59% 0.22% 91.77% 16.84% 83.16%
Kazakhstan 0.76% 4.71% 19.31% 73.06% 2.16% 4.71% 1.08% 98.92%
Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 2.39% 97.58% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Group K
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
England 88.03% 10.91% 1.04% 0.02% 0.00% 11.97% 94.18% 5.82%
Serbia 9.87% 54.47% 28.42% 6.63% 0.61% 54.95% 26.86% 73.14%
Albania 2.04% 30.52% 51.65% 14.88% 0.91% 30.52% 6.73% 93.27%
Latvia 0.06% 3.99% 17.85% 66.86% 11.24% 3.99% 0.18% 99.82%
Andorra 0.00% 0.11% 1.04% 11.61% 87.24% 0.11% 0.00% 100.00%
Group L
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Croatia 64.61% 26.23% 8.55% 0.59% 0.02% 26.66% 76.31% 23.69%
Croatia 64.61% 26.23% 8.55% 0.59% 0.02% 26.66% 76.31% 23.69%
Czechia 27.04% 47.62% 23.98% 1.36% 0.00% 72.96% 43.04% 56.96%
Montenegro 8.25% 25.33% 60.15% 6.10% 0.17% 25.33% 11.54% 88.46%
Faroe Islands 0.10% 0.78% 6.78% 73.58% 18.76% 0.78% 0.13% 99.87%
Gibraltar 0.00% 0.04% 0.54% 18.37% 81.05% 0.04% 0.00% 100.00%
Montenegro 8.25% 25.33% 60.15% 6.10% 0.17% 25.33% 11.54% 88.46%
Faroe Islands 0.10% 0.78% 6.78% 73.58% 18.76% 0.78% 0.13% 99.87%
Gibraltar 0.00% 0.04% 0.54% 18.37% 81.05% 0.04% 0.00% 100.00%
Playoffs
Likelihood
The following shows how likely a country ends up in the playoffs.
NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, and "Playoff" suggests the percentage chance of qualifying for the playoff round.
FRnk Grp Playoff
North Macedonia 67 J 91.77%
Northern Ireland 71 A 85.02%
Romania 45 H 81.84%
Wales 29 J 77.52%
Czechia 39 L 72.96%
Norway 38 I 70.39%
Sweden 28 B 69.47%
Moldova 154 I 61.15%
Poland 34 G 56.06%
Ukraine 25 D 55.45%
Serbia 31 K 54.95%
Türkiye 27 E 49.19%
Hungary 37 F 44.01%
Slovakia 46 A 43.53%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 70 H 38.85%
Scotland 44 C 33.09%
Greece 40 C 32.74%
Germany 10 A 30.66%
Albania 66 K 30.52%
Denmark 21 C 29.59%
Switzerland 20 B 29.26%
Portugal 7 F 28.00%
Slovenia 51 B 27.98%
Italy 9 I 27.32%
Croatia 11 L 26.66%
Ireland 60 F 26.54%
Montenegro 73 L 25.33%
Austria 22 H 25.08%
San Marino 210 H 25.01%
Iceland 74 D 24.33%
Netherlands 6 G 22.08%
Georgia 68 E 21.34%
Belgium 8 J 21.16%
Finland 69 G 21.06%
Luxembourg 91 A 19.23%
Spain 2 E 18.44%
France 3 D 16.01%
Bulgaria 85 E 14.85%
England 4 K 11.97%
Israel 78 I 10.52%
Armenia 102 F 9.23%
Kosovo 97 B 8.64%
Belarus 98 C 6.65%
Azerbaijan 119 D 6.60%
Kazakhstan 113 J 4.71%
Latvia 138 K 3.99%
Estonia 121 I 3.84%
Cyprus 129 H 3.45%
Lithuania 143 G 0.84%
Faroe Islands 141 L 0.78%
Malta 169 G 0.19%
Andorra 173 K 0.11%
Gibraltar 196 L 0.04%
Liechtenstein 205 J 0.00%Results
The following shows if a country ends up in the playoffs, what their chances are of winning in each round.
NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, "Win-Fin" suggests the chances to win the final, "Lose-Fi" suggests the chance to lose the final, "Win-Sem" suggests the chance to win the semi final, "Lose-Sem" suggests the chance to lose the semi, and "Playoff" is the percentage chance that the country ends up playing in the playoff round.
NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.
FRnk Grp Win-Fin Lose-Fi Win-Sem Lose-Sem Playoff
France 3 D 62.02% 20.36% 82.39% 17.61% 16.01%
Spain 2 E 58.68% 21.26% 79.93% 20.07% 18.44%
Portugal 7 F 51.79% 23.93% 75.71% 24.29% 28.00%
England 4 K 51.38% 25.65% 77.03% 22.97% 11.97%
Belgium 8 J 50.14% 27.74% 77.88% 22.12% 21.16%
Italy 9 I 49.12% 26.39% 75.51% 24.49% 27.32%
Netherlands 6 G 49.09% 27.22% 76.31% 23.69% 22.08%
Croatia 11 L 43.89% 28.69% 72.58% 27.42% 26.66%
Germany 10 A 42.60% 25.93% 68.53% 31.47% 30.66%
Switzerland 20 B 39.17% 29.46% 68.63% 31.37% 29.26%
Denmark 21 C 38.93% 29.64% 68.57% 31.43% 29.59%
Ukraine 25 D 35.09% 30.60% 65.70% 34.30% 55.45%
Austria 22 H 34.73% 31.02% 65.75% 34.25% 25.08%
Türkiye 27 E 33.62% 31.53% 65.16% 34.84% 49.19%
Hungary 37 F 31.38% 31.29% 62.67% 37.33% 44.01%
Serbia 31 K 30.92% 30.61% 61.53% 38.47% 54.95%
Wales 29 J 29.89% 28.29% 58.18% 41.82% 77.52%
Sweden 28 B 27.81% 27.65% 55.46% 44.54% 69.47%
Poland 34 G 27.72% 31.81% 59.53% 40.47% 56.06%
Greece 40 C 26.91% 30.33% 57.24% 42.76% 32.74%
Scotland 44 C 26.90% 27.92% 54.82% 45.18% 33.09%
Slovakia 46 A 25.06% 29.47% 54.54% 45.46% 43.53%
Romania 45 H 23.03% 25.94% 48.97% 51.03% 81.84%
Slovenia 51 B 22.80% 25.70% 48.50% 51.50% 27.98%
Norway 38 I 22.59% 28.11% 50.70% 49.30% 70.39%
Czechia 39 L 21.93% 26.15% 48.08% 51.92% 72.96%
Ireland 60 F 17.33% 25.06% 42.39% 57.61% 26.54%
Finland 69 G 16.29% 21.04% 37.32% 62.68% 21.06%
Iceland 74 D 15.37% 21.50% 36.87% 63.13% 24.33%
Albania 66 K 15.37% 23.30% 38.66% 61.34% 30.52%
Georgia 68 E 14.25% 21.09% 35.33% 64.67% 21.34%
Montenegro 73 L 12.99% 19.86% 32.85% 67.15% 25.33%
North Macedonia 67 J 12.11% 20.89% 33.00% 67.00% 91.77%
Israel 78 I 11.88% 21.01% 32.89% 67.11% 10.52%
Northern Ireland 71 A 11.26% 21.09% 32.35% 67.65% 85.02%
Bulgaria 85 E 10.98% 19.73% 30.71% 69.29% 14.85%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 70 H 10.12% 19.90% 30.01% 69.99% 38.85%
Luxembourg 91 A 9.83% 19.08% 28.91% 71.09% 19.23%
Belarus 98 C 9.17% 18.65% 27.82% 72.18% 6.65%
Armenia 102 F 8.56% 16.58% 25.14% 74.86% 9.23%
Kosovo 97 B 8.33% 19.56% 27.89% 72.11% 8.64%
Kazakhstan 113 J 6.79% 17.62% 24.42% 75.58% 4.71%
Azerbaijan 119 D 5.76% 17.42% 23.18% 76.82% 6.60%
Estonia 121 I 4.95% 17.71% 22.66% 77.34% 3.84%
Lithuania 143 G 4.76% 7.14% 11.90% 88.10% 0.84%
Cyprus 129 H 4.35% 16.81% 21.16% 78.84% 3.45%
Faroe Islands 141 L 3.85% 16.67% 20.51% 79.49% 0.78%
Latvia 138 K 3.01% 13.28% 16.29% 83.71% 3.99%
Moldova 154 I 1.91% 10.24% 12.15% 87.85% 61.15%
San Marino 210 H 0.04% 2.20% 2.24% 97.76% 25.01%
Andorra 173 K 0.00% 9.09% 9.09% 90.91% 0.11%
Gibraltar 196 L 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.04%
Malta 169 G 0.00% 15.79% 15.79% 84.21% 0.19%
Liechtenstein 205 J n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Overall Qualifying
This table is interesting because it shows the relative randomness of the group draw and the effect of using the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League Overall Ranking, giving Moldova and San Marino bigger changes to qualify. Other notables include Bosnia and Herzegovina and Luxembourg whose chances are currently higher than would be expected, and for countries like Ukraine, Türkiye and Israel the chances are smaller.
NOTE: "FRnk" is the current FIFA ranking of the team, "Grp" is the qualifying group the country is allocated to, "Qual" suggests the percentage chance to qualify, either by winner the group or the playoff path, and "NotQual" suggests the percentage change to not qualify.
NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.
FRnk Grp Qual NotQual
England 4 K 94.18% 5.82%
France 3 D 93.92% 6.08%Spain 2 E 92.38% 7.62%
Portugal 7 F 86.50% 13.50%
Netherlands 6 G 84.34% 15.66%
Germany 10 A 82.40% 17.60%
Italy 9 I 81.91% 18.09%
Belgium 8 J 81.64% 18.36%
Croatia 11 L 76.31% 23.69%
Austria 22 H 65.36% 34.64%
Denmark 21 C 62.06% 37.94%
Switzerland 20 B 61.00% 39.00%Sweden 28 B 49.20% 50.80%Wales 29 J 45.65% 54.35%Norway 38 I 45.51% 54.49%Czechia 39 L 43.04% 56.96%Poland 34 G 37.92% 62.08%Romania 45 H 36.90% 63.10%Greece 40 C 33.00% 67.00%Ukraine 25 D 32.27% 67.73%Hungary 37 F 32.12% 67.88%Scotland 44 C 32.01% 67.99%Slovakia 46 A 31.96% 68.04%Türkiye 27 E 29.21% 70.79%Bosnia and Herzegovina 70 H 28.56% 71.44%Serbia 31 K 26.86% 73.14%Slovenia 51 B 24.29% 75.71%North Macedonia 67 J 16.84% 83.16%Northern Ireland 71 A 13.45% 86.55%Ireland 60 F 12.66% 87.34%Montenegro 73 L 11.54% 88.46%Luxembourg 91 A 7.62% 92.38%Finland 69 G 7.47% 92.53%Albania 66 K 6.73% 93.27%Georgia 68 E 6.71% 93.29%Iceland 74 D 6.52% 93.48%Bulgaria 85 E 3.73% 96.27%Kosovo 97 B 3.39% 96.61%Israel 78 I 2.87% 97.13%Belarus 98 C 2.77% 97.23%Armenia 102 F 2.42% 97.58%Moldova 154 I 1.17% 98.83%Kazakhstan 113 J 1.08% 98.92%Cyprus 129 H 0.82% 99.18%Azerbaijan 119 D 0.80% 99.20%Estonia 121 I 0.47% 99.53%Latvia 138 K 0.18% 99.82%Faroe Islands 141 L 0.13% 99.87%Lithuania 143 G 0.11% 99.89%Malta 169 G 0.01% 99.99%San Marino 210 H 0.01% 99.99%Andorra 173 K 0.00% 100.00%Gibraltar 196 L 0.00% 100.00%Liechtenstein 205 J 0.00% 100.00%
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