Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (23 September 2016)
TwitterLinked In

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

2010 WCQ: A quick look at the pots (II)

Take a look at the table below to see how the pots shape up before the last matchday. Only the values for the first 13 countries and Poland are 99% correct (I would say 100% correct, but you never know), being based on official data released by FIFA (Lusankya managed to find the document on the German version of FIFA.com -> pdf file). The other values are computed using historical rankings, different from the ones used by FIFA. For more info, read this. But they're pretty close to the official values (the error should be less than 3,4%) and will help you see what pot your country will end up in.

The third column contains the number of points after the November 20th matches.

I did a bit of reverse engineering - starting from the points gained in each match for the top 20 countries (according to the official data) and calculating the actual (not historical) ranking used by FIFA. Then I used these rankings to perform the calculations for the other countries.

R Country L D W
-----------------------------------------
1 Italy 1537 1461 1473 1498
2 Germany 1321 1267 1296 1355
3 Spain 1309 1247 1281 1349
4 Portugal 1258 1208 1241 1306
5 France 1251 1206 1243 1318
6 Czech Republic 1250 1183 1219 1290
7 Netherlands 1217 1170 1192 1236
8 England 1151 1113 1152 1231
9 Greece 1065 1010 1045 1114
-----------------------------------------
10 Romania 1055 1007 1034 1088
11 Croatia 1054 1000 1043 1129
12 Scotland 990 990 990 990
13 Russia 870 824 836 861
14 Turkey 856 819 851 914
15 Poland 854 824 855 916
16 Northern Ireland 842 784 838 946
17 Bulgaria 841 794 823 879
18 Serbia 840 792 842 942
-----------------------------------------
19 Norway 835 788 802 831
20 Sweden 826 803 823 864
21 Israel 806 764 792 849
22 Ukraine 789 766 811 900
23 Ireland 739 739 739 739
24 Denmark 737 711 736 786
25 Finland 693 651 699 795
26 Switzerland 663 663 663 663
27 Bosnia-Herzegovina 622 578 625 721
-----------------------------------------
28 Hungary 612 581 619 697
29 Macedonia 589 555 600 691
30 Slovakia 578 560 571 592
31 Moldova 573 573 573 573
32 Belgium 564 532 553 595
33 Wales 540 513 553 634
34 Cyprus 529 502 545 632
35 Lithuania 478 454 483 542
36 Belarus 438 420 464 552
-----------------------------------------
37 Georgia 431 407 430 475
38 Albania 419 397 439 525
39 Slovenia 416 396 433 509
40 Latvia 413 392 428 502
41 Iceland 413 384 432 527
42 Armenia 396 370 387 419
43 Austria 352 341 354 378
44 Azerbaijan 262 248 274 326
45 Liechtenstein 261 261 261 261
-----------------------------------------
46 Kazakhstan 249 239 257 294
47 Estonia 225 225 225 225
48 Malta 192 185 223 297
49 Luxembourg 127 127 127 127
50 Montenegro 65 65 65 65
51 Andorra 60 59 110 212
52 Faroe Islands 13 13 75 198
53 San Marino 6 6 48 131


Hats off to Sport365.ro , Sport1.bg, B92.net, NogoNet.com and Sportal.bg - the only websites using info from my blog and actually mentioning the source.

7 comments:

  1. Hi Lucian Marin!
    I'm from Sofia, i read the article leading to your blog post.
    Very nice post.. By the way, i was interested, because of the outcome, that we have chances to get into/remain in the pot 2 for the draw on the 25.th November..
    To be honest with you, we performed very very bad lately, so i could not believe my eyes, as i saw the ranking :)))

    I want to wish Romaina great success on the EURO finals. All the unpleasant things that were written in papers were a very lousy journailst fluff.
    I will 100% support Romania on EURO08. :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Yosif!

    Lucian Marin is the guy who wrote the "Journalist" theme for Wordpress, ported to Blogger by Thur Broeders. But that's an honest mistake :)
    Thank you for your nice words and best of luck to your team!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi again Edgar. Sorry for the confusion, i though Lucian is the blogger's name :)

    I read you're saying that the data about the countries after Poland in the current ranking are not so detailed calculated like the others. How many points could the states differ from what's given in the table now? As you may imagine this is crucial for out team :DDD

    ReplyDelete
  4. The greatest relative difference in October between my calculations and the totals published by FIFA was 3.4% - for Austria, followed by Andorra - 3.28% and Serbia - 2,93%.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Edgar, thanks for your great work! Really interesting.

    Seems that my country (Norway) gave up the chance to be in pot two as well with their choking against Turkey :( Then again, pot 2 and pot 3 seem pretty even to me, so it should not make that much difference.

    ReplyDelete
  6. hey Edgard, just to tell u that a newspaper from Macedonia is into your blog ;)

    ReplyDelete