The final fight for the first pot

This analysis is based on official data released by FIFA, so it's 99% correct.

Remaining matches:

CQ - Continental Qualifier
F - Friendly
H - Home
A - Away

Italy: Scotland (CQ, A), Faroe Islands (CQ, H)
France: Morocco (F, H), Ukraine (CQ, A)
Germany: Cyprus (CQ, H), Wales (CQ, H)
Spain: Sweden (CQ, H), Northern Ireland (CQ, H)
Netherlands: Luxembourg (CQ, H), Belarus (CQ, A)
Portugal: Armenia (CQ, H), Finland (CQ, H)
Czech Republic: Slovakia (CQ, H), Cyprus (CQ, A)
Croatia: Macedonia (CQ, A), England (CQ, A)
England: Austria (F, A), Croatia (CQ, H)
Romania: Bulgaria (CQ, A), Albania (CQ, H)
Scotland: Italy (CQ, H)
Greece: Malta (CQ, H), Hungary (CH, A)
Russia: Israel (CQ, A), Andorra (CQ, A)
Poland: Belgium (CQ, H), Serbia (CQ, A)

The columns are pretty easy to understand.

RU Country         LL   LD   LW   DL   DD   DW   WL   WD   WW
--------------------------------------------------------------
 1 Italy          1320 1333 1358 1367 1380 1405 1461 1473 1498
 2 France         1194 1231 1305 1206 1243 1318 1231 1268 1342
 3 Germany        1177 1207 1266 1207 1237 1296 1267 1296 1355
 4 Spain          1137 1171 1239 1174 1208 1276 1247 1281 1349
 5 Netherlands    1139 1161 1205 1149 1171 1215 1170 1192 1236
 6 Portugal       1135 1167 1232 1159 1192 1257 1208 1241 1306
 7 Czech Republic 1071 1106 1178 1108 1144 1215 1183 1219 1290
 8 Croatia        1000 1043 1129 1029 1072 1158 1086 1128 1214
 9 England        1085 1124 1203 1094 1134 1213 1113 1152 1231
--------------------------------------------------------------
10 Romania        1007 1034 1088 1041 1068 1123 1110 1138 1192
11 Scotland        990  990  990 1039 1039 1039 1137 1137 1137
12 Greece          967 1002 1071  982 1016 1085 1010 1045 1114
13 Russia          824  836  861  864  877  902  946  958  983
14 Poland          746  776  838  772  803  864  824  855  916

- Russia and Poland can't reach the first pot
- Romania will be in the first pot with 2 wins against Bulgaria and Albania (even a win against Bulgaria and a draw against Albania - amirbachar pointed this out), because Croatia and England have to play each other.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.