EURO 2008 impact on the NT coefficient

Column order

Country - Coefficient after EURO 2008 - Coefficient before EURO 2008 - Difference

Spain          39172 33922 5250
Germany        39121 35769 3352
Italy          36695 36876 -181
Croatia        35927 33989 1938
Netherlands    35741 33672 2069
Portugal       33765 32789 976
Czech Republic 33751 34607 -856
France         32751 34218 -1467
Russia         32543 30182 2361
Romania        32441 33724 -1283
Turkey         32311 30367 1944
Sweden         32225 32681 -456
Greece         31140 33557 -2417
Poland         30199 31211 -1012
Switzerland    29657 29651 6
Austria        24667 25152 -485

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Probable top 50 after EURO 2008

Point totals for teams in blue should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Current rank (June 29th, 2008)
Team
Current points (June 29th, 2008)
+/- Ranking (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)
+/- Points (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)

1	Spain	1557	3	254
2	Italy	1404	1	-20
3	Germany	1364	2	90
4	Brazil	1344	-2	-169
5	Netherlands	1299	5	188
6	Argentina	1298	-5	-261
7	Croatia	1282	8	265
8	Czech Republic	1146	-2	-100
9	Portugal	1104	2	10
10	France	1053	-3	-90
11	Russia	1023	13	177
12	Romania	1021	0	-48
13	Cameroon	1015	0	-26
14	Turkey	1009	6	132
15	England	1003	-6	-120
16	Scotland	988	1	10
17	Bulgaria	930	1	-19
18	Greece	911	-10	-222
19	Mexico	906	-5	-114
20	Colombia	883	-1	-21
21	Ghana	879	-5	-107
22	Israel	877	0	5
23	Uruguay	870	3	53
24	Egypt	841	-1	-7
25	Paraguay	835	3	30
26	Sweden	802	4	3
27	Nigeria	801	7	92
28	Côte d'Ivoire	797	-3	-41
29	Ukraine	787	2	-4
30	USA	780	-9	-94
31	Norway	778	-4	-36
32	Poland	773	-4	-32
33	Northern Ireland	749	-1	-3
34	Japan	742	4	47
35	Serbia	740	4	46
36	Denmark	721	-3	-29
37	Morocco	689	3	-1
38	Iran	683	10	80
39	Australia	672	-4	-36
40	Guinea	671	1	-8
41	Republic of Ireland	663	1	-11
41	Senegal	663	2	-4
43	Chile	652	4	29
43	Finland	652	-7	-45
45	Switzerland	649	-1	5
46	Belgium	638	3	38
47	Mali	632	-1	2
48	Tunisia	627	2	33
49	Honduras	624	-12	-72
50	Moldova	623	1	40
50	Saudi Arabia	623	4	50

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (29 June 2008)

Update after the final.

Spain takes first place from Germany.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams. Poland (30199) and Ukraine (26943) - automatically qualified as hosts.

Rank - Rank before EURO 2008 - Country - Current coefficient

 1  6 Spain              39172
 2  2 Germany            39121
 3  1 Italy              36695
 4  5 Croatia            35927
 5  8 Netherlands        35741
 6 10 Portugal           33765
 7  3 Czech Republic     33751
 8  4 France             32751
 9 14 Russia             32543
------------------------------
10  7 Romania            32441
11 12 England            32430
12 13 Turkey             32311
13 11 Sweden             32225
14  9 Greece             31140
15 15 Switzerland        29657
16 16 Bulgaria           29196
17 17 Israel             29085
18 18 Norway             28599
------------------------------
19 19 Scotland           27951
20 20 Serbia             27884
21 21 Denmark            27669
22 22 Finland            26045
23 23 Ireland            25312
24 24 Slovakia           25312
25 25 Austria            24667
26 26 Northern Ireland   24062
27 27 Belgium            22608
------------------------------
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440
29 29 Lithuania          22151
30 30 Hungary            21012
31 31 Wales              20890
32 32 Latvia             20737
33 33 Belarus            20357
34 34 Macedonia          20098
35 35 Slovenia           19868
36 36 Albania            19432
------------------------------
37 37 Cyprus             18718
38 38 Estonia            18154
39 39 Georgia            18099
40 40 Moldova            17956
41 41 Armenia            16473
42 42 Liechtenstein      15334
43 43 Iceland            15090
44 44 Kazakhstan         14483
45 45 Azerbaijan         12834
------------------------------
46 46 Malta              12728
47 47 Luxembourg         10486
48 48 Andorra             9861
49 49 Faroe Islands       8867
50 50 San Marino          7839
51 51 Montenegro             0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Regarding Moldova (a reply to Steve)

I just read this post written by Steve in May 2008.

"My first thought was, how in the world did Moldova come to be ranked 37, above nations like Nigeria, Australia, South Korea, etc.? They've beaten Kazakhstan (122), Malta (135), Bosnia (62), Hungary (57) and Latvia (72), and had a draw with Turkey (25) in the last couple of years so they're not exactly beating world powers. FIFA rankings just don't make sense to me sometimes."

Moldova also won against Bosnia and Herzegovina - ranked 25th at the time of the match. See the August 2007 ranking. That win and the ones against Hungary and Malta (all three in the EURO 2008 qualifiers) brought them more than 50% of their total points.

Nigeria had an unsuccessful ACN 2008. On top of that, they failed to play 5 matches between May 2007 - May 2008. They only played 4 matches and that's basically another loss for them as FIFA's ranking algorithm requires a minimum of 5 matches in every 12 months frame.

Australia and Korea Republic - it's basically the same thing. Both rich federations, they can afford to play friendlies against top opposition and most of the time, they lose - that's 0 points and the average goes down.

Moldova on the other hand only plays against average to weak opposition and will get the win more often than not.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Probable top 50 in July 2008

With only 2 matches left here's the probable top 50 of the July 2008 FIFA Rankings. Point totals for teams in blue should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Gabon - Lesotho won't affect the top 50.
Then there's Germany - Spain. Germany will take over the top spot with a non-PSO win. A Spain win will see Germany drop to 3rd place.

Current rank (June 27th, 2008)
Team
Current points (June 27th, 2008)
+/- Ranking (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)
+/- Points (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)

1	Spain	1510	3	207
2	Germany	1405	3	131
3	Italy	1404	0	-20
4	Brazil	1344	-2	-169
5	Netherlands	1299	5	188
6	Argentina	1298	-5	-261
7	Croatia	1282	8	265
8	Czech Republic	1146	-2	-100
9	Portugal	1104	2	10
10	France	1053	-3	-90
11	Russia	1023	13	177
12	Romania	1021	0	-48
13	Cameroon	1015	0	-26
14	Turkey	1009	6	132
15	England	1003	-6	-120
16	Scotland	988	1	10
17	Bulgaria	930	1	-19
18	Greece	911	-10	-222
19	Mexico	906	-5	-114
20	Colombia	883	-1	-21
21	Ghana	879	-5	-107
22	Israel	877	0	5
23	Uruguay	870	3	53
24	Egypt	841	-1	-7
25	Paraguay	835	3	30
26	Sweden	802	4	3
27	Nigeria	801	7	92
28	Côte d'Ivoire	797	-3	-41
29	Ukraine	787	2	-4
30	USA	780	-9	-94
31	Norway	778	-4	-36
32	Poland	773	-4	-32
33	Northern Ireland	749	-1	-3
34	Japan	742	4	47
35	Serbia	740	4	46
36	Denmark	721	-3	-29
37	Morocco	689	3	-1
38	Iran	683	10	80
39	Australia	672	-4	-36
40	Guinea	671	1	-8
41	Republic of Ireland	663	1	-11
41	Senegal	663	2	-4
43	Chile	652	4	29
43	Finland	652	-7	-45
45	Switzerland	649	-1	5
46	Belgium	638	3	38
47	Mali	632	-1	2
48	Tunisia	627	2	33
49	Honduras	624	-12	-72
50	Moldova	623	1	40
50	Saudi Arabia	623	4	50

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (26 June 2008)

Update after the semifinals.

Russia in the first pot, Romania drops in the second pot.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams. Poland (30199) and Ukraine (26943) - automatically qualified as hosts.

Maximum value: winning final 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing the final 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition.

Rank - Previous Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Minimum value - Maximum value

 1  1 Germany            38776 39121 40269
 2  3 Spain              37734 38024 39172
 3  2 Italy              36695
 4  4 Croatia            35927
 5  5 Netherlands        35741
 6  6 Portugal           33765
 7  7 Czech Republic     33751
 8  8 France             32751
 9 10 Russia             32543
10  9 Romania            32441
11 11 England            32430
12 13 Turkey             32311
13 12 Sweden             32225
14 14 Greece             31140
15 15 Switzerland        29657
16 16 Bulgaria           29196
17 17 Israel             29085
18 18 Norway             28599
19 19 Scotland           27951
20 20 Serbia             27884
21 21 Denmark            27669
22 22 Finland            26045
23 23 Ireland            25312
24 24 Slovakia           25312
25 25 Austria            24667
26 26 Northern Ireland   24062
27 27 Belgium            22608
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440
29 29 Lithuania          22151
30 30 Hungary            21012
31 31 Wales              20890
32 32 Latvia             20737
33 33 Belarus            20357
34 34 Macedonia          20098
35 35 Slovenia           19868
36 36 Albania            19432
37 37 Cyprus             18718
38 38 Estonia            18154
39 39 Georgia            18099
40 40 Moldova            17956
41 41 Armenia            16473
42 42 Liechtenstein      15334
43 43 Iceland            15090
44 44 Kazakhstan         14483
45 45 Azerbaijan         12834
46 46 Malta              12728
47 47 Luxembourg         10486
48 48 Andorra             9861
49 49 Faroe Islands       8867
50 50 San Marino          7839
51 51 Montenegro             0

Coefficient from the final tournament only:
 1 Spain          53402
 2 Germany        49002
 3 Croatia        46626
 4 Netherlands    44503
 5 Russia         42501
 6 Turkey         40502
 7 Portugal       36377
 8 Italy          33626
 9 Switzerland    29001
10 Sweden         28834
11 Czech Republic 28668
12 Romania        25334
13 Austria        22000
14 Poland         21834
15 France         21500
16 Greece         18334

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Bulgaria vs. Paraguay

As promised, here's a quick analysis of total points for Bulgaria and Paraguay

The "Points" value is computed this way:

FIFA match points * date multiplier / total number of matches in that 12 month time frame.

Example:

Bulgaria - Romania 1 - 0

FIFA match points: 1410
Date multiplier: 1
Total number of matches: 8

Points: 1410 * 1 / 8 = 176.25

The total number of points is computed this way: sum of the average for each year * date multiplier.


Bulgaria

Last 4 years:

39 matches - 10 defeats.

Year - Average (Total FIFA match points/number of matches)

-4 274.99
-3 413.691
-2 502.728
-1 502.375

Total 932.844

Most valuable matches:

17/11/2007 Bulgaria - Romania 1 - 0

EURO 2008 qualifier

FIFA match points: 1410
Points: 176.25

21/11/2007 Slovenia - Bulgaria 0 - 2

EURO 2008 qualifier

FIFA match points: 930
Points 116.25

06/02/2008 Northern Ireland - Bulgaria 0 - 1

Friendly

FIFA match points: 504
Points 63

26/03/2008 Bulgaria - Finland 2 - 1

Friendly

FIFA match points: 495
Points 61.875

06/09/2006 Bulgaria - Slovenia 3 - 0

EURO 2008 qualifier

FIFA match points: 1065
Points 48.409

These five matches make up close to 50% of Bulgaria's July 2008 total.

Paraguay

Last 4 years:

53 matches - 19 defeats

Year - Average (Total FIFA match points/number of matches)

-4 528.419
-3 427.606
-2 430.64
-1 373.003

Total: 822.287

Most valuable matches:

15/06/2008 Paraguay - Brazil 2 - 0

FIFA World Cup qualifier

FIFA match points: 1455.3
Points: 90.957

02/07/2007 USA - Paraguay 1 - 3

Copa America

FIFA match points: 1515.24
Points: 84.18

17/10/2007 Paraguay - Uruguay 1 - 0

FIFA World Cup qualifier

FIFA match points: 1330.35
Points: 83.147

28/06/2007 Paraguay - Colombia 5 - 0

Copa America

FIFA match points: 1490.58
Points: 82.81

21/11/2007 Chile - Paraguay 0 - 3

FIFA World Cup qualifier

FIFA match points: 1139.25
Points: 71.203

These five matches make up close to 50% of Paraguay's July 2008 total.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: 2 years, 1 year (June/July 2008)

June 2008 ranking taking into account matches played in the last 2 years.

 1 Argentina      1229
 2 Italy          1157
 3 Brazil         1135
 4 Germany        1078
 5 Spain          1036
 6 Czech Republic  927
 7 France          885
 8 Greece          861
 9 Romania         846
10 Netherlands     829
11 Ghana           821
12 Scotland        816
13 Portugal        812
14 Croatia         803
15 England         803
16 Bulgaria        785
17 Mexico          761
18 Cameroon        754
19 Israel          705
20 Russia          680

June 2008 ranking taking into account matches played in the last 12 months.

 1 Argentina      799
 2 Brazil         753
 3 Spain          683
 4 Czech Republic 656
 5 Italy          598
 6 Greece         584
 7 Bulgaria       560
 8 Germany        550
 9 Mexico         549
10 Ghana          546
11 Romania        541
12 Cameroon       536
13 Scotland       523
14 Egypt          503
15 Croatia        489
16 Norway         468
17 USA            462
18 Israel         458
19 Paraguay       451
20 England        451

July 2008 rankings (including matches played at EURO 2008 until the semifinals):

2 years

 1 Spain          1141
 2 Croatia        1059
 3 Italy          1028
 4 Germany        1015
 5 Netherlands     948
 6 Russia          908
 7 Brazil          897
 8 Argentina       889
 9 Czech Republic  860
10 Turkey          835
11 Scotland        821
12 Romania         797
13 Bulgaria        754
14 France          736
15 Greece          732
16 Portugal        727
17 Cameroon        723
18 Israel          709
19 Mexico          654
20 Ghana           645

1 year

 1 Spain          903
 2 Brazil         695
 3 Croatia        682
 4 Netherlands    676
 5 Russia         651
 6 Germany        640
 7 Argentina      621
 8 Italy          618
 9 Czech Republic 612
10 Turkey         593
11 Scotland       541
12 Portugal       531
13 Ghana          508
14 Bulgaria       502
15 Cameroon       497
16 Egypt          488
17 Colombia       481
18 Romania        476
19 Israel         468
20 Moldova        460

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Rankings: Spain or Germany on top?

It's between Germany and Spain for the top spot in the July 2008 FIFA Ranking.

Germany can go top of the FIFA Ranking if:

a) Win against Turkey avoiding PSO

AND

(
Russia win against Spain avoiding PSO AND Germany win the final (with or without PSO)

OR

Russia win against Spain after PSO AND Germany win the final avoiding PSO

OR

Spain win against Russia (with or without PSO) AND Germany win the final avoiding PSO
)

b) Win after PSO against Turkey

AND

(
Russia win against Spain avoiding PSO

OR

Spain win against Russia after PSO
)

AND

Germany win the final avoiding PSO

This proves Robert Millward can be wrong.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Russia into top 10

Column order:

Current rank (June 22th, 2008)
Team
Current points (June 20th, 2008)
+/- Ranking (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)
+/- Points (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)

 1 Spain          1467   3  164
 2 Italy          1404   1  -20
 3 Brazil         1344  -1 -169
 3 Germany        1344   2   70
 5 Netherlands    1299   5  188
 6 Argentina      1298  -5 -261
 7 Croatia        1282   8  265
 8 Czech Republic 1146  -2 -100
 9 Portugal       1104   2   10
10 Russia         1067  14  221
11 France         1053  -4  -90
12 Turkey         1044   8  167
13 Romania        1021  -1  -48
14 Cameroon       1015  -1  -26
15 England        1003  -6 -120
16 Scotland        988   1   10
17 Bulgaria        930   1  -19
18 Greece          911 -10 -222
19 Mexico          906  -5 -114
20 Colombia        883  -1  -21

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (22 June 2008)

Update after the quarterfinals.

No changes in the pots. Germany back on top.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams. Poland (30199) and Ukraine (26943) - automatically qualified as hosts.

Maximum value: winning the remaining matches 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing the next match 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition.

Rank - Previous Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Minimum value - Maximum value

 1  2 Germany            37512 37560 40269
 2  1 Italy              36695 36695 36695
 3  4 Spain              36492 36479 39135
 4  5 Croatia            35927 35927 35927
 5  3 Netherlands        35741 35741 35741
 6  6 Portugal           33765 33765 33765
 7  7 Czech Republic     33751 33751 33751
 8  8 France             32751 32751 32751
 9  9 Romania            32441 32441 32441
10 13 Russia             32439 32583 35377
11 10 England            32430 32430 32430
12 11 Sweden             32225 32225 32225
13 12 Turkey             32145 32311 35126
14 14 Greece             31140 31140 31140
15 15 Switzerland        29657 29657 29657
16 16 Bulgaria           29196 29196 29196
17 17 Israel             29085 29085 29085
18 18 Norway             28599 28599 28599
19 19 Scotland           27951 27951 27951
20 20 Serbia             27884 27884 27884
21 21 Denmark            27669 27669 27669
22 22 Finland            26045 26045 26045
23 23 Ireland            25312 25312 25312
24 24 Slovakia           25312 25312 25312
25 25 Austria            24667 24667 24667
26 26 Northern Ireland   24062 24062 24062
27 27 Belgium            22608 22608 22608
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440 22440 22440
29 29 Lithuania          22151 22151 22151
30 30 Hungary            21012 21012 21012
31 31 Wales              20890 20890 20890
32 32 Latvia             20737 20737 20737
33 33 Belarus            20357 20357 20357
34 34 Macedonia          20098 20098 20098
35 35 Slovenia           19868 19868 19868
36 36 Albania            19432 19432 19432
37 37 Cyprus             18718 18718 18718
38 38 Estonia            18154 18154 18154
39 39 Georgia            18099 18099 18099
40 40 Moldova            17956 17956 17956
41 41 Armenia            16473 16473 16473
42 42 Liechtenstein      15334 15334 15334
43 43 Iceland            15090 15090 15090
44 44 Kazakhstan         14483 14483 14483
45 45 Azerbaijan         12834 12834 12834
46 46 Malta              12728 12728 12728
47 47 Luxembourg         10486 10486 10486
48 48 Andorra             9861  9861  9861
49 49 Faroe Islands       8867  8867  8867
50 50 San Marino          7839  7839  7839
51 51 Montenegro             0     0     0

Coefficient from the final tournament only:

 1 Spain          49377
 2 Croatia        46626
 3 Netherlands    44503
 4 Germany        44127
 5 Russia         44002
 6 Turkey         41252
 7 Portugal       36377
 8 Italy          33626
 9 Switzerland    29001
10 Sweden         28834
11 Czech Republic 28668
12 Romania        25334
13 Austria        22000
14 Poland         21834
15 France         21500
16 Greece         18334

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Argentina to lose first place

After various modifications to my FIFA ranking software, this is how the ranking looks at the moment (last match included June 19th, 2008 Portugal - Germany 2 - 3). It's not 100% accurate - but for countries from the October 2007 top 20 it should be.

Column order:

Current rank (June 20th, 2008)
Team
Current points (June 20th, 2008)
+/- Ranking (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)
+/- Points (from the rankings published by FIFA on June 4th)

 1 Spain          1447  3  144
 2 Italy          1406  1  -18
 3 Netherlands    1345  7  234
 4 Brazil         1344 -2 -169
 4 Germany        1344  1   70
 6 Argentina      1298 -5 -261
 7 Croatia        1292  8  275
 8 Czech Republic 1146 -2 -100
 9 Portugal       1104  2   10
10 France         1053 -3  -90
11 Romania        1021  1  -48
12 England        1016 -3 -107
13 Turkey         1010  7  133
14 Cameroon       1003 -1  -38
15 Scotland        988  2   10
16 Russia          985  8  139
17 Greece          954 -9 -179
18 Bulgaria        930  0  -19
19 Mexico          908 -5 -112
20 Colombia        883 -1  -21

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Rankings - June 2008 problem solved

More details about the problem: link.

USA - Denmark (played on January 20th, 2007) was added to the database in the spring 2008 (probably March?) and for the point calculations the algorithm uses the March 2008 ranking for Denmark (33), not the January 2007 ranking (23). That's why I had an one point difference between my calculations and the values published by FIFA.

The deadline for matches according to FIFA's website is the Thursday prior to the release date. However, according to FIFA's Information Services department, they try to include most of the matches up to Sunday. Depends on the external company which is calculating the FIFA Rankings.

Many thanks to the guys at FIFA's Informations Services for explaining this issues.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (18 June 2008)

Update after the end of the group stage.

No changes in the pots. Italy return to the top of the standings.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams. Poland (30199) and Ukraine (26943) - automatically qualified as hosts.

Maximum value: winning the remaining matches 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing the next match 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition.

Rank - Previous Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Minimum value - Maximum value

 1  2 Italy              36537 36258 40348
 2  1 Germany            36525 36220 40269
 3  4 Netherlands        36105 35762 39746
 4  3 Spain              36039 35637 39524
 5  5 Croatia            35923 35489 39322
 6  7 Portugal           33912 33765 37615
 7  6 Czech Republic     33751 33751 33751
 8  8 France             32751 32751 32751
 9  9 Romania            32441 32441 32441
------------------------------------------
10 11 England            32430 32430 32430
11 10 Sweden             32225 32225 32225
12 13 Turkey             31489 31291 35515
13 14 Russia             31321 31127 35358
14 12 Greece             31140 31140 31140
15 17 Switzerland        29657 29657 29657
16 15 Bulgaria           29196 29196 29196
17 16 Israel             29085 29085 29085
18 18 Norway             28599 28599 28599
------------------------------------------
19 19 Scotland           27951 27951 27951
20 20 Serbia             27884 27884 27884
21 21 Denmark            27669 27669 27669
22 22 Finland            26045 26045 26045
23 23 Slovakia           25312 25312 25312
24 24 Ireland            25312 25312 25312
25 25 Austria            24667 24667 24667
26 26 Northern Ireland   24062 24062 24062
27 27 Belgium            22608 22608 22608
------------------------------------------
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440 22440 22440
29 29 Lithuania          22151 22151 22151
30 30 Hungary            21012 21012 21012
31 31 Wales              20890 20890 20890
32 32 Latvia             20737 20737 20737
33 33 Belarus            20357 20357 20357
34 34 Macedonia          20098 20098 20098
35 35 Slovenia           19868 19868 19868
36 36 Albania            19432 19432 19432
------------------------------------------
37 37 Cyprus             18718 18718 18718
38 38 Estonia            18154 18154 18154
39 39 Georgia            18099 18099 18099
40 40 Moldova            17956 17956 17956
41 41 Armenia            16473 16473 16473
42 42 Liechtenstein      15334 15334 15334
43 43 Iceland            15090 15090 15090
44 44 Kazakhstan         14483 14483 14483
45 45 Azerbaijan         12834 12834 12834
------------------------------------------
46 46 Malta              12728 12728 12728
47 47 Luxembourg         10486 10486 10486
48 48 Andorra             9861  9861  9861
49 49 Faroe Islands       8867  8867  8867
50 50 San Marino          7839  7839  7839
51 51 Montenegro             0     0     0

Coefficient from the final tournament only:

 1 Netherlands    50336
 2 Spain          49836
 3 Croatia        49501
 4 Portugal       39335
 5 Germany        39335
 6 Turkey         39002
 7 Russia         39001
 8 Italy          32168
 9 Switzerland    29001
10 Sweden         28834
11 Czech Republic 28668
12 Romania        25334
13 Austria        22000
14 Poland         21834
15 France         21500
16 Greece         18334

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (14 June 2008)

Update after the second round of group matches.

Romania returns to the first pot, knocking Sweden back in the second pot.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland and Ukraine - automatically qualified as hosts).

Maximum value: winning the remaining matches 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing the remaining matches 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition (i.e. with at least one match left to play)

Rank - Previous Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Minimum value - Maximum value

 1  1 Germany            35825 35147 40269
 2  2 Italy              35785 35137 40329
 3  4 Spain              35450 34346 39524
 4  6 Netherlands        35426 34449 39727
 5  5 Croatia            35370 34197 39322
 6  3 Czech Republic     34480 33751 38755
 7  8 Portugal           34473 33783 38665
 8  7 France             33336 32773 38162
 9 10 Romania            33157 32463 37548
------------------------------------------
10  9 Sweden             32871 32247 37495
11 12 England            32430 32430 32430
12 11 Greece             31823 31140 32518
13 13 Turkey             30669 30111 35515
14 14 Russia             30472 29921 35339
15 15 Bulgaria           29196 29196 29196
16 17 Israel             29085 29085 29085
17 16 Switzerland        28655 28256 29634
18 18 Norway             28599 28599 28599
------------------------------------------
19 19 Scotland           27951 27951 27951
20 20 Serbia             27884 27884 27884
21 21 Denmark            27669 27669 27669
22 22 Finland            26045 26045 26045
23 23 Ireland            25312 25312 25312
24 24 Slovakia           25312 25312 25312
25 25 Austria            24996 24667 31468
26 26 Northern Ireland   24062 24062 24062
27 27 Belgium            22608 22608 22608
------------------------------------------
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440 22440 22440
29 29 Lithuania          22151 22151 22151
30 30 Hungary            21012 21012 21012
31 31 Wales              20890 20890 20890
32 32 Latvia             20737 20737 20737
33 33 Belarus            20357 20357 20357
34 34 Macedonia          20098 20098 20098
35 35 Slovenia           19868 19868 19868
36 36 Albania            19432 19432 19432
------------------------------------------
37 37 Cyprus             18718 18718 18718
38 38 Estonia            18154 18154 18154
39 39 Georgia            18099 18099 18099
40 40 Moldova            17956 17956 17956
41 41 Armenia            16473 16473 16473
42 42 Liechtenstein      15334 15334 15334
43 43 Iceland            15090 15090 15090
44 44 Kazakhstan         14483 14483 14483
45 45 Azerbaijan         12834 12834 12834
------------------------------------------
46 46 Malta              12728 12728 12728
47 47 Luxembourg         10486 10486 10486
48 48 Andorra             9861  9861  9861
49 49 Faroe Islands       8867  8867  8867
50 50 San Marino          7839  7839  7839
51 51 Montenegro             0     0     0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (10 June 2008)

Update after the first round of group matches.

Portugal and Sweden climb into the first pot at the expense of Romania and Greece. Germany replace Italy at the top of the standings.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland and Ukraine - automatically qualified as hosts).

Maximum value: winning the remaining 5 matches 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing the remaining 2 group matches 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition.

Rank - Previous Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Minimum value - Maximum value

 1  2 Germany            36607 35147 41417
 2  1 Italy              35993 34670 41089
 3  3 Czech Republic     35346 33773 39921
 4  6 Spain              34771 33283 39524
 5  5 Croatia            34733 33167 39322
 6  8 Netherlands        34616 33283 39690
 7  4 France             34038 32817 39347
 8 10 Portugal           33687 32696 38648
 9 11 Sweden             33591 32247 38643
------------------------------------------
10  7 Romania            33419 31996 38307
11  9 Greece             32611 31140 37400
12 12 England            32430 32430 32430
13 13 Turkey             29722 28734 35515
14 14 Russia             29518 28543 35339
15 16 Bulgaria           29196 29196 29196
16 15 Switzerland        29115 28256 35179
17 17 Israel             29085 29085 29085
18 18 Norway             28599 28599 28599
------------------------------------------
19 19 Scotland           27951 27951 27951
20 20 Serbia             27884 27884 27884
21 21 Denmark            27669 27669 27669
22 22 Finland            26045 26045 26045
23 23 Ireland            25312 25312 25312
24 24 Slovakia           25312 25312 25312
25 25 Austria            24748 24128 32322
26 26 Northern Ireland   24062 24062 24062
27 27 Belgium            22608 22608 22608
------------------------------------------
28 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440 22440 22440
29 29 Lithuania          22151 22151 22151
30 30 Hungary            21012 21012 21012
31 31 Wales              20890 20890 20890
32 32 Latvia             20737 20737 20737
33 33 Belarus            20357 20357 20357
34 34 Macedonia          20098 20098 20098
35 35 Slovenia           19868 19868 19868
36 36 Albania            19432 19432 19432
------------------------------------------
37 37 Cyprus             18718 18718 18718
38 38 Estonia            18154 18154 18154
39 39 Georgia            18099 18099 18099
40 40 Moldova            17956 17956 17956
41 41 Armenia            16473 16473 16473
42 42 Liechtenstein      15334 15334 15334
43 43 Iceland            15090 15090 15090
44 44 Kazakhstan         14483 14483 14483
45 45 Azerbaijan         12834 12834 12834
------------------------------------------
46 46 Malta              12728 12728 12728
47 47 Luxembourg         10486 10486 10486
48 48 Andorra             9861  9861  9861
49 49 Faroe Islands       8867  8867  8867
50 50 San Marino          7839  7839  7839
51 51 Montenegro             0     0     0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Possible mistake in the FIFA Rankings

June 20th, 2008

Problem solved: link.
______________________

Take a look at USA results in 2007 (you need to press the "Prev." button a few times). The first match of the year was a 3 - 1 friendly win against Denmark in Carson City on January 20th, 2007. It was the first competitive match for the USA after losing 2 - 1 at the hands of Ghana at the 2006 World Cup on June 22nd, 2006 in Nuremberg.
After the Denmark match, there was another friendly win (2 - 0) against Mexico in Glendale, 18 days later - February 7th, 2007.

Now, please take a look at the detailed point totals published by FIFA in October 2007 -> pdf file. Scroll to page 18 (to check the USA point totals). Between Ghana - USA 2 - 1 (played on June 22nd, 2006) and USA - Mexico 2 - 0 (played on February 7th, 2007) there is no other match.

It doesn't make much difference for the October rankings: 886.24 instead of 885.94. The rounded value is still 886.

According to an e-mail from FIFA, the USA - Denmark match became an official match in the spring of 2008, after a request from the US Soccer Federation.

Still, with this match included, my total for April 2008 for USA becomes 890, FIFA has 889. The same 1 point difference for USA appears for May 2008, then all hell broke loose when I compared the June 2008 totals. With the exception of Argentina, my totals are way different from the ones published by FIFA. I can't quite figure out why... Did they recalculate the point totals for the rankings starting from February 2007 and then used them for the June 2008 ranking?

According to this article (Argentina consolidate their lead), a total of 347 international 'A' matches have been taken into account in compiling the world ranking for this year. However, according to the "Fixtures and results" section of FIFA.com, only 337 'A' matches have been played in 2008 (up to the beginning of June). Or does this figure (347) include the 10 matches played after December 17th, 2007 when the last FIFA Rankings for 2007 were published? More to the point, according to the FIFA Ranking schedule article, the deadline for matches is the Thursday prior to the release date. With the June 2008 rankings published on June 4th, the deadline for matches should have been May 29th, thus 28 matches played on 30 and 31 May wouldn't have been included in the calculations.

Questions, questions...

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (6 June 2008)

EURO 2008 kicks off tomorrow and we'll probably see some movement in the top two pots.

I will try to update the table after each round of matches. So, check for updates on June 11, 15, 19, 23, 27 and 30.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland and Ukraine - automatically qualified as hosts).

Maximum value: winning all 6 matches 1 - 0.
Minimum value: losing all 3 group matches 1 - 0.

In blue, teams still in the competition.

Rank - Country - Current coefficient - Maximum value - Minimum value

 1 Italy              36876 42274 33515
 2 Germany            35769 41398 32547
 3 Czech Republic     34607 39921 31195
 4 France             34218 40106 31151
 5 Croatia            33989 39322 30589
 6 Spain              33922 39487 30661
 7 Romania            33724 39067 30329
 8 Netherlands        33672 39653 30660
 9 Greece             33557 38566 29963
---------------------------------------
10 Portugal           32789 38632 30402
11 Sweden             32681 38625 29647
12 England            32430 32430 32430
13 Turkey             30367 36682 27556
14 Russia             30182 36525 27388
15 Switzerland        29651 36327 27056
16 Bulgaria           29196 29196 29196
17 Israel             29085 29085 29085
18 Norway             28599 28599 28599
---------------------------------------
19 Scotland           27951 27951 27951
20 Serbia             27884 27884 27884
21 Denmark            27669 27669 27669
22 Finland            26045 26045 26045
23 Ireland            25312 25312 25312
24 Slovakia           25312 25312 25312
25 Austria            25152 33614 22744
26 Northern Ireland   24062 24062 24062
27 Belgium            22608 22608 22608
---------------------------------------
28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440 22440 22440
29 Lithuania          22151 22151 22151
30 Hungary            21012 21012 21012
31 Wales              20890 20890 20890
32 Latvia             20737 20737 20737
33 Belarus            20357 20357 20357
34 Macedonia          20098 20098 20098
35 Slovenia           19868 19868 19868
36 Albania            19432 19432 19432
---------------------------------------
37 Cyprus             18718 18718 18718
38 Estonia            18154 18154 18154
39 Georgia            18099 18099 18099
40 Moldova            17956 17956 17956
41 Armenia            16473 16473 16473
42 Liechtenstein      15334 15334 15334
43 Iceland            15090 15090 15090
44 Kazakhstan         14483 14483 14483
45 Azerbaijan         12834 12834 12834
---------------------------------------
46 Malta              12728 12728 12728
47 Luxembourg         10486 10486 10486
48 Andorra             9861  9861  9861
49 Faroe Islands       8867  8867  8867
50 San Marino          7839  7839  7839
51 Montenegro             0    0      0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Universitatea Cluj porneste de la -8 puncte

Universitatea Cluj a fost penalizata cu 6 puncte de de Comisia de Disciplina a FRF dupa scandalul "Valiza". Astfel, "sepcile rosii" au doar 17 puncte in clasamentul final al sezonului 2007-2008 si vor porni in Liga a II-a cu -8 puncte.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 WC: Seeding formula (June 2008 update)

Seeded teams for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa.

Qualified teams determined using the current standings and the FIFA rankings.

Panama/Saudi Arabia replace Venezuela/Iran.

Rank - Country - Total - Performance - Ranking

 1 Brazil         60.3 29.3 31.0
 2 Germany        58.3 30.3 28.0
 3 Italy          57.3 27.3 30.0
 4 Spain          54.3 25.3 29.0
 5 Argentina      53.0 21.0 32.0
 6 England        49.3 26.3 23.0
 7 France         49.3 23.3 26.0
--------------------------------
 8 Portugal       45.3 22.3 23.0
 9 Mexico         38.0 19.3 18.7
10 Netherlands    38.0 14.7 23.3
11 Czech Republic 33.0  6.0 27.0
12 Croatia        28.7  9.0 19.7
13 USA            27.3 13.7 13.7
14 Ghana          27.0 13.3 13.7
15 Greece         24.0  0.0 24.0
16 Paraguay       22.7 11.7 11.0
17 Korea Republic 21.7 15.7  6.0
18 Japan          21.0 13.3  7.7
19 Romania        20.7  0.0 20.7
20 Cameroon       20.3  3.0 17.3
21 Australia      18.7 11.3  7.3
22 Scotland       17.0  0.0 17.0
23 Cote d'Ivoire  16.7  6.0 10.7
24 Bulgaria       15.3  0.0 15.3
25 Colombia       15.0  0.0 15.0
26 Nigeria        13.3  2.7 10.7
27 Saudi Arabia   12.0  8.0  4.0
28 Egypt          11.0  0.0 11.0
29 Honduras        6.3  0.0  6.3
30 South Africa    4.0  3.0  1.0
31 Uzbekistan      3.0  0.0  3.0
32 Panama          2.0  0.0  2.0

Top 7 + South Africa seeded.

The pots:

Pot A: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot B: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Scotland
Pot C: Australia, Honduras, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, USA, Uzbekistan
Pot D: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay
Special pot: Panama

Possible draw:

Group A: South Africa, Scotland, Korea Republic, Paraguay
Group B: France, Croatia, Saudi Arabia, Panama
Group C: Spain, Bulgaria, Honduras, Ghana
Group D: Germany, Netherlands, Japan, Egypt
Group E: Brazil, Greece, Australia, Nigeria
Group F: Italy, Portugal, Mexico, Cote d'Ivoire
Group G: England, Romania, Uzbekistan, Colombia
Group H: Argentina, Czech Republic, USA, Cameroon

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Liga a III-a 2008-2009: Componenta probabila a celor sase serii

Am incercat sa nu mut prea mult echipele dintr-o serie in alta si sa pastrez, pe cat posibil, echipele din acelasi judet in aceeasi serie. Totusi, am fost nevoit sa fac niste compromisuri:

- Am repartizat cele doua echipe din judetul Dambovita in serii diferite: Electrosid Titu in seria a III-a, iar Viitorul Pucioasa in seria a IV-a.
- Am mutat CF Braila din seria I in seria a II-a.
- Am mutat Juventus Bucuresti din seria a II-a in seria a III-a (in care a jucat in urma cu doua sezoane)
- Am mutat Minerul Mehedinti Valea Copcii din seria a V-a in seria a IV-a
- Am mutat echipele FC Cisnadie si Atletic Sibiu din seria a IV-a in seria a VI-a.

Nu e o repartizare oficiala, ci doar modul in care cred eu ca vor fi impartite echipele. In plus, am pornit de la premisa ca nicio echipa nu va alege sa isi vanda/cesioneze locul sau sau sa nu se inscrie in campionat.

Anul trecut, FRF a facut cateva schimbari fara rost (in opinia mea). Probabil istoria se va repeta si anul acesta.

Rezultatele meciurilor de baraj le-am luat din ProSport.

Seria I

Dunarea Galati
Aerostar Bacau
Politehnica Galati
Willy Bacau
Politehnica Iasi II
FC Barlad
Juventus Falticeni
CFR Pascani
Cetatea Targu Neamt
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt II
Otelul Galati II
FCM Bacau II
Pambac Bacau
Laminorul Roman
AFC Zagon
AS Fotbal Moinesti
Ecologistul Luceafarul Mihai Eminescu
Rapid CFR Suceava

Seria a II-a

CSM Focsani
CSM Ramnicu Sarat
Steaua Bucuresti II
CS Ovidiu
Onix Ramnicu Sarat
Rocar ANEFS Bucuresti
Portul Constanta
Unirea Slobozia
CSM Medgidia
CF Braila
CS Navodari
Callatis Mangalia
Dunarea Calarasi
Viitorul Insuratei
CS Eforie
FC Panciu
Sageata Stejaru
Recolta Gheorghe Lazar

Seria a III-a

Inter Gaz Bucuresti
FC Sacele
Juventus Bucuresti
Tricolorul Breaza
Electrosid Titu
Conpet Ploiesti
Chimia Brazi
Rapid Bucuresti II
Victoria Branesti
Inter Pantelimon
Unirea Tarlungeni
Petrolul Ploiesti II
CS Filipestii de Padure
Dodu Bucuresti
CF Predeal
Kaproni Gornet
Progresul II Bucuresti
Victoria Bod

Seria a IV-a

FCM Resita
FC Caracal
Gaz Metan Craiova
Oltchim Ramnicu Valcea
Minerul Mehedinti Valea Copcii
Unirea Costesti
Rova Rosiorii de Vede
ALRO Slatina
Building Vanju Mare
FC Arges Pitesti II
CFR Craiova
Chimia Craiova
Progresul Corabia
Armata Craiova
Turris Turnu Magurele
Petrolul Videle
Prometeu Craiova
Viitorul Pucioasa

Seria a V-a

Politehnica 1921 Stiinta II Timisoara
Corvinul 2005 Hunedoara
Minerul Motru
CSM Sebes
Gloria Arad
Minerul Jilt Matasari
Fortuna Covaci
EMC Rovinari
Alto Gradimento Albina
CFR Simeria
CS Ineu
CALOR Timisoara
Nova Mama Mia Becicherecul Mic
CS Vulcan
Dacia Orastie
Jiul Rovinari
National Sebis
Progresul Gataia

Seria a VI-a

Avantul Reghin
FC Baia Mare
Somesul Satu Mare
Gloria Bistrita II
Trans-Sil Targu Mures
FC Cisnadie
Gaz Metan Targu Mures
Unirea Dej
Atletic Sibiu
Mobila Sovata
Turul Micula
Bihorul Beius
Unirea Ungheni
Olimpia Satu Mare
Sanatatea Cluj
CFR II Cluj
FC Zalau
Liberty II Oradea

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.