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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

2010 WC: Seeding formula based on current standings (17 December 2008)

Seeded teams for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa.

Qualified teams determined using the current standings and the FIFA rankings.

December 2008 now set in the formula. Only one part left: the November 2009 ranking.

Qatar replaces Saudi Arabia.
 1 Germany        60.3 30.3 30.0
2 Brazil 58.3 29.3 29.0
3 Italy 56.7 27.3 29.3
4 Spain 56.3 25.3 31.0
5 England 51.0 26.3 24.7
6 Argentina 49.7 21.0 28.7
7 Netherlands 43.7 14.7 29.0
--------------------------------
8 Mexico 35.7 19.3 16.3
9 Croatia 35.0 9.0 26.0
10 Turkey 32.7 10.0 22.7
11 USA 31.3 13.7 17.7
12 Paraguay 31.3 11.7 19.7
13 Ghana 25.0 13.3 11.7
14 Russia 25.0 3.0 22.0
15 Cameroon 23.3 3.0 20.3
16 Japan 22.7 13.3 9.3
17 Korea Republic 21.7 15.7 6.0
18 Nigeria 21.3 2.7 18.7
19 Australia 21.0 11.3 9.7
20 Greece 19.7 0.0 19.7
21 Israel 18.0 0.0 18.0
22 Uruguay 17.3 2.7 14.7
23 Egypt 17.3 0.0 17.3
24 Cote d'Ivoire 17.0 6.0 11.0
25 Denmark 16.7 7.7 9.0
26 Serbia 11.7 0.0 11.7
27 Iran 11.0 5.3 5.7
28 Chile 8.0 0.0 8.0
29 Honduras 5.3 0.0 5.3
30 South Africa 5.0 3.0 2.0
31 Slovakia 3.0 0.0 3.0
32 Qatar 1.0 0.0 1.0
Top 7 + South Africa seeded.

The pots:

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Israel, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Turkey
Pot 3: Australia, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Qatar, USA
Pot 4: Cameroon, Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay

Possible draw (using random.org):

Group A: South Africa, Serbia, USA, Uruguay
Group B: Argentina, Russia, Japan, Nigeria
Group C: England, Greece, Iran, Ghana
Group D: Spain, Slovakia, Mexico, Egypt
Group E: Brazil, Israel, Qatar, Cote d'Ivoire
Group F: Italy, Turkey, Korea Republic, Cameroon
Group G: Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Chile
Group H: Germany, Croatia, Honduras, Paraguay

2 comments:

  1. Hi,

    the current standings are a bit uneven, as teams might have played more matches than other in there group.

    so here is the "real" european output:

    We simply ommit matches played against minors like Malta, Liechtenstein, etc. Then we calculate +3 for a win away, +1 for a draw away, 0 for a home win or a away loss, -2 for a home draw, -3 for a home loss.

    Gr1: DEN 4, SWE -1
    Gr2: SUI 1, GRE 0
    Gr3: CZE 1, SVN 1
    Gr4: GER 1, RUS 0
    Gr5: ESP 3, BIH 0
    Gr6: ENG 6, UKR -1
    Gr7: SRB 3, LTU 3
    Gr8: ITA 4, IRL 4
    Gr9: NED 6, SCO 1

    Considering, that only four runners-up make it to SA 2010, these might be IRL, LTU, SCO, SVN at the moment + DEN, SUI, CZE, GER, ESP, ENG, SRB, ITA, NED.

    As for Conmebol, it is PAR 8, BRA 2, ARG 1, URU -2 and Chile on position 5, playing against the CONCACAF 4th.

    ReplyDelete