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Monday, July 27, 2009

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CONCACAF teams (July 27th)

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the May 2007 FIFA ranking (for CONCACAF).

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will again have 3.5 spots
- CONCACAF will again use the same qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams

The May 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between May 2007 and May 2011. We already have the "0.2" and "0.3" parts (matches played between May 2007 and May 2009) - that's basically 25% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.5" part (matches played between May 2009 and May 2010). A lot can and will change before May 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving CONCACAF teams: 2009 Gold Cup knockout stages, 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2010 FIFA World Cup, 2010 Caribbean Championship, 2011 UNCAF Nations Cup and plenty of friendlies.

This is the May 2011 ranking (for CONCACAF only) using matches played up to and including June 13th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to May 2009 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).
 1 USA                            474
2 Mexico 384
3 Canada 354
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4 Costa Rica 345
5 Honduras 321
6 El Salvador 215
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7 Panama 208
8 Jamaica 200
9 Haiti 174
10 Trinidad and Tobago 116
11 Grenada 115
12 Antigua and Barbuda 112
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13 Guatemala 90
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14 Cuba 87
15 Bermuda 80
16 Barbados 70
17 Suriname 63
18 Guyana 53
18 Nicaragua 53
20 Netherlands Antilles 50
21 Puerto Rico 48
22 St. Kitts and Nevis 38
23 Cayman Islands 24
24 Belize 22
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24 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 22
26 St. Lucia 13
26 Turks and Caicos Islands 13
28 British Virgin Islands 12
29 Bahamas 8
30 Aruba 7
31 Dominica 5
32 US Virgin Islands 3
33 Montserrat 0
33 Dominican Republic 0
33 Anguilla 0
Now, looking at the August 2011 FIFA ranking (as Matt suggested):
 1 USA                            231
2 Costa Rica 183
3 Honduras 177
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4 Mexico 161
5 Jamaica 131
6 Trinidad and Tobago 113
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7 Canada 111
7 El Salvador 111
9 Panama 110
10 Cuba 105
11 Grenada 96
12 Suriname 89
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13 Antigua and Barbuda 88
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14 Barbados 81
15 Haiti 71
16 Guatemala 67
17 Nicaragua 44
18 Guyana 42
19 Bermuda 40
20 St. Kitts and Nevis 36
21 Puerto Rico 35
22 Netherlands Antilles 32
23 Cayman Islands 24
24 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 21
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24 Belize 21
26 St. Lucia 13
26 Turks and Caicos Islands 13
28 British Virgin Islands 12
29 Bahamas 8
30 Dominica 5
31 Aruba 4
32 US Virgin Islands 3
33 Anguilla 0
33 Dominican Republic 0
33 Montserrat 0

2 comments:

  1. Looks like Guatemala could be the next cycle's El Salvador.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks so much for doing that.

    I guess it goes without saying that using the August rankings would place a huge amount of importance on the 2011 Gold Cup (as it should be, IMO). The only reason I can think of that they would not use the post-cup rankings is that it makes entirely too much sense. This is CONCACAF after all.

    ReplyDelete