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Friday, July 24, 2009

FIFA Ranking: August 2009 final preview

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Only two matches left before the deadline:

USA - Mexico (Gold Cup final)
China PR - Kyrgyzstan (friendly).

This is how these teams' totals could change:

USA (991 - loss, 1009 - PSO loss, 1028 - PSO win, 1046 - win)
Mexico (743 - loss, 755 - PSO loss, 777 - PSO win, 799 - win)
China PR (302 - loss, 306 - draw, 314 - win)
Kyrgystan (102 - loss, 118 - draw, 149 - win)

In the ranking table, the value displayed for these teams is the minimum possible value. This means that even if they lose, their total can't drop.

USA can break into the top 10 with a win against Mexico.
Mexico can return to the top 30 with a win against USA.
China PR can climb to 108th with a win against Kyrgyzstan.
Kyrgyzstan can climb to 144th with a win against China PR.

Germany up to 4th, Italy down to 5th.

Best movers:

26 - Canada
12 - Namibia
11 - New Caledonia

Worst movers:

-25 - Netherlands Antilles
-24 - Grenada
-13 - Vietnam

Best movers in the top 50:

6 - Egypt
2 - Paraguay

Worst movers in the top 50:

-7 - Costa Rica and Honduras
-5 - Mexico

Costa Rica will drop one more place unless USA defeat Mexico avoiding PSO.

Ghana out of the African top 5, replaced by Egypt - now 4th.

Canada break in the CONCACAF top 5, replacing Jamaica. Costa Rica will keep their 2nd place only if USA defeats Mexico avoiding PSO.

Paraguay up to 3rd in South America, replacing Uruguay.

New Caledonia replace Vanuatu as the 3rd Oceanian team.

Germany replace Italy as UEFA's 3rd.

Montenegro will again improve their best ever ranking - 96th. Their previous best was 98th, achieved last month.

Peru return to their worst ever ranking 89th - first achieved in June 2009.

Five teams will have their worst ever ranking:

Mexico (38th - 33rd in July 2009)
China PR (113th - 108th in July 2009)
Zimbabwe (120th - 116th in July 2009)
United Arab Emirates (124th - 122nd in April 2009)
Mauritius (183rd - 176th in July 2009)

Mexico and China PR can still avoid this.

August 2009 rank - Team - August 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Brazil 1642 0 -30
2 Spain 1590 0 0
3 Netherlands 1379 0 0
4 Germany 1195 1 -12
5 Italy 1181 -1 -48
6 Russia 1161 0 0
7 England 1135 0 0
8 Argentina 1080 0 -11
9 France 1059 0 -23
10 Croatia 1031 0 0
11 Greece 1001 0 0
12 USA 991 0 8
13 Switzerland 930 0 0
14 Serbia 925 0 0
15 Denmark 909 0 0
16 Australia 896 0 10
17 Portugal 881 0 2
18 Côte d'Ivoire 874 0 0
19 Ukraine 869 0 0
20 Paraguay 856 2 10
21 Uruguay 851 -1 -9
22 Czech Republic 850 -1 0
23 Bulgaria 839 0 0
24 Scotland 837 0 0
25 Israel 822 0 0
26 Chile 817 1 6
27 Romania 814 -1 0
28 Turkey 809 0 0
29 Cameroon 803 0 0
30 Gabon 789 0 0
31 Northern Ireland 784 1 0
32 Egypt 778 6 24
33 Nigeria 773 1 0
34 Ghana 772 1 0
35 Ecuador 768 1 8
36 Republic of Ireland 758 1 0
37 Costa Rica 742 -7 -47
38 Mexico 734 -5 -43
39 Japan 729 1 7
40 Poland 706 1 0
41 Sweden 702 1 0
42 Slovakia 687 1 0
43 Hungary 681 1 0
44 Bosnia-Herzegovina 680 1 0
45 Colombia 668 1 -7
46 Honduras 664 -7 -89
47 Algeria 661 0 0
48 Korea Republic 626 0 -8
49 Tunisia 614 0 0
50 Norway 606 0 0
51 Burkina Faso 598 0 0
52 Finland 593 0 0
53 FYR Macedonia 589 0 0
54 Venezuela 583 0 -1
55 Morocco 570 0 0
56 Latvia 563 0 0
57 Guinea 562 0 0
58 Mali 551 1 0
59 Lithuania 545 1 0
60 Slovenia 539 2 0
61 Iran 534 -3 -25
62 Belgium 533 1 0
63 Bolivia 522 1 1
64 Saudi Arabia 519 -3 -23
65 Bahrain 501 1 6
66 Canada 497 26 137
67 Wales 494 0 0
68 Austria 493 0 0
69 Jamaica 488 -4 -31
70 Trinidad and Tobago 478 2 17
71 Togo 468 0 0
72 South Africa 449 -2 -25
73 Cyprus 445 0 0
74 Belarus 444 0 0
75 Libya 441 0 3
75 Uganda 441 0 3
77 Zambia 425 0 5
78 Panama 417 -9 -61
79 Uzbekistan 412 0 10
80 Oman 411 -2 -2
81 El Salvador 408 9 32
82 Mozambique 401 0 7
83 Benin 400 -3 0
84 Senegal 399 -3 0
85 Qatar 397 1 17
86 Korea DPR 395 -3 2
87 Moldova 389 -3 0
88 Cuba 383 -3 0
89 Congo 378 0 0
89 Peru 378 -3 -2
91 Sudan 367 0 0
92 Iceland 358 1 0
93 Tanzania 350 4 5
94 Albania 347 1 0
95 Syria 342 1 -4
96 Montenegro 339 2 0
97 Congo DR 338 5 6
98 Gambia 337 1 0
99 New Zealand 336 1 0
100 Iraq 334 -6 -21
101 Fiji 333 0 0
102 Angola 331 1 2
103 Georgia 326 1 0
103 Namibia 326 12 32
105 Kenya 325 0 0
106 Barbados 320 1 0
107 Guatemala 316 2 3
108 Antigua and Barbuda 312 -3 -13
108 Malawi 312 2 0
110 Suriname 309 1 0
111 Estonia 308 1 0
112 Grenada 305 -24 -74
113 China PR 300 -5 -17
114 Cape Verde Islands 296 0 0
115 Haiti 295 5 47
116 Kuwait 293 2 5
117 Rwanda 288 -4 -10
118 Thailand 287 -1 -3
119 Luxembourg 284 0 0
120 Zimbabwe 280 -4 -12
121 Guyana 269 -1 21
122 Jordan 245 0 2
123 Armenia 243 -1 0
124 United Arab Emirates 242 -2 -1
125 Sierra Leone 241 0 0
126 Chad 233 0 0
127 Singapore 228 0 0
128 Burundi 220 1 0
129 Equatorial Guinea 219 1 0
130 Botswana 208 4 6
130 Kazakhstan 208 3 4
132 Madagascar 203 -4 -24
133 Niger 187 3 0
134 Hong Kong 186 3 0
135 Indonesia 185 -3 -21
136 Ethiopia 178 2 1
137 Azerbaijan 175 2 0
138 New Caledonia 168 11 26
139 Nicaragua 165 -4 -30
140 Liberia 161 2 0
141 Yemen 159 3 2
142 Vanuatu 152 -1 -11
143 Bermuda 150 3 0
144 Vietnam 149 -13 -66
145 Turkmenistan 143 6 5
146 Malta 140 4 0
147 Myanmar 139 8 10
148 Lebanon 138 3 0
149 St. Kitts and Nevis 135 -4 -16
150 Liechtenstein 133 3 0
150 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 133 3 0
152 Swaziland 120 -10 -41
153 Malaysia 119 4 8
154 Maldives 117 2 0
155 Tajikistan 116 -7 -31
156 India 112 -9 -36
156 Sri Lanka 112 6 11
158 Philippines 108 0 0
159 Eritrea 106 0 0
160 Kyrgyzstan 102 0 -3
161 Mauritania 99 3 0
161 Solomon Islands 99 2 -1
163 Faroe Islands 96 2 0
164 Lesotho 93 -3 -9
165 Netherlands Antilles 88 -25 -81
166 Puerto Rico 87 0 0
167 Pakistan 85 0 0
168 Somalia 82 0 0
169 Bangladesh 80 0 0
170 Cayman Islands 76 1 0
171 Laos 73 1 0
172 Chinese Taipei 70 2 0
173 Cambodia 64 3 0
173 Samoa 64 3 0
175 Mongolia 61 4 0
176 Nepal 60 -3 -12
177 Belize 57 3 0
177 Palestine 57 -2 -12
179 Bahamas 53 2 0
179 Seychelles 53 -9 -25
181 Turks and Caicos Islands 51 1 0
182 Brunei Darussalam 46 1 0
183 Mauritius 45 -7 -19
184 Dominican Republic 40 0 0
184 Tonga 40 0 0
186 Guinea-Bissau 38 0 0
187 Cook Islands 34 1 0
187 Guam 34 1 0
189 Djibouti 33 1 0
190 St. Lucia 32 1 0
190 Tahiti 32 1 0
192 Afghanistan 31 -5 -6
193 British Virgin Islands 30 0 0
194 Macau 28 0 0
195 Andorra 17 1 0
195 Bhutan 17 1 0
197 Dominica 12 1 0
198 Aruba 11 -3 -11
199 Timor-Leste 9 0 0
200 Comoros 8 0 0
200 US Virgin Islands 8 0 0
202 Central African Republic 4 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Anguilla 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

4 comments:

  1. As always thanks for the info. I'm getting my program closer and closer thanks to your posts. (10 of the top 25 are right on, while the rest are just 1 or 2 points off)

    I was hoping you could help my figure out why my Brazil is off? Here is what I have:

    .2
    France 0 4 0.995 0.000
    Ghana 3 4 0.92 1678.080
    Japan 3 4 0.92 1810.560
    Australia 3 4 0.92 1766.400
    Croatia 3 4 0.995 2065.620
    New Zealand 3 1 0.92 284.280
    Russia 3 1 0.995 510.435
    UAE 3 1 0.92 242.880
    Venezuela 3 2.5 0.99 1165.725
    Bolivia 1 2.5 0.99 361.350
    Chile 3 2.5 0.99 1202.850
    Croatia 1 1 0.995 190.045

    .3
    Argentina 3 3 0.98 1746.360
    Uruguay 2 3 0.98 999.600
    Chile 3 3 0.98 1296.540
    Ecuador 3 3 0.98 1375.920
    Chile 3 3 0.98 1296.540
    Mexico 0 3 0.915 0.000
    Turkey 1 1 0.99 179.190
    England 1 1 0.99 190.080
    Ghana 3 1 0.915 496.845
    Chile 3 1 0.98 493.920
    Portugal 0 1 0.99 0.000
    Switzerland 3 1 0.99 549.450
    Ecuador 3 1 0.98 499.800
    Wales 3 1 0.99 427.680
    Argentina 3 1 0.98 579.180
    Norway 1 1 0.99 149.490

    .5
    Argentina 1 2.5 0.98 487.550
    Paraguay 0 2.5 0.98 0.000
    Venezuela 0 1 0.98 0.000
    Canada 3 1 0.915 378.810
    Sweden 3 1 0.99 522.720
    Ireland 3 1 0.99 487.080
    Uruguay 3 2.5 0.98 1271.550
    Peru 1 2.5 0.98 340.550
    Ecuador 3 2.5 0.98 1051.050
    Colombia 1 2.5 0.98 431.200
    Mexico 3 1 0.915 518.805
    USA 3 1 0.915 502.335
    Algeria 3 1 0.915 348.615

    1.0
    USA 3 3 0.915 1531.710
    South Africa 3 3 0.915 1054.080
    Italy 3 3 0.99 1746.360
    USA 3 3 0.915 1531.710
    Egypt 3 3 0.915 1317.600
    Paraguay 3 2.5 0.99 1388.475
    Uruguay 3 2.5 0.99 1358.775
    Peru 3 2.5 0.99 913.275
    Ecuador 1 2.5 0.99 398.475
    Italy 3 1 0.99 582.120
    Portugal 3 1 0.99 564.300
    Colombia 1 2.5 0.98 409.150
    Venezuela 3 2.5 0.98 984.900
    Bolivia 1 2.5 0.98 316.050
    Chile 3 2.5 0.98 1176.000


    Totals(points are already multiplied down):
    .2 12 games 2256 points = 188
    .3 16 games 3084 points = 193
    .5 13 games 3170 points = 224
    1.0 15 games 15273 points = 1018

    (although I didn't put in the decimals I just rounded on here, in my program the only rounding is the final number)
    Total 1643

    ReplyDelete
  2. well, I figured out a couple problems, but still have the wrong number ( now i'm at 1640). I had the wrong continental multiplier for a few of the matches.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 15-Jul-2007 Argentina should be 1719.9, not 1746.3
    21-Nov-2007 Uruguay should be 1345.05, not 1271.55
    18-Jun-2008 Argentina 490, not 487.550
    29-Mar-2009 Ecuador 394.45, not 398.475
    01-Apr-2009 Peru 904.05, not 913.275
    06-Jun-2009 Uruguay 1345.05, not 1358.775
    10-Jun-2009 Paraguay 1374.45, not 1388.475

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks, It looks like in my program I have to count the first place team as 0 instead of 1. While the second place team still counts as #2.

    ReplyDelete