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Monday, September 14, 2009

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (14 September 2009)

16 September 2009

UEFA confirm the qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams. More info.
________________________

The coefficients for the EURO 2012 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2006 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

The draw will take place on 7 February 2010.

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland (26680) and Ukraine (26326) - automatically qualified as hosts).

Slovakia replace Bulgaria in the 2nd pot.

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
 1  1 Netherlands        37821
2 2 Spain 37484
3 3 Germany 36673
4 4 Italy 34218
5 6 England 33579
6 5 Croatia 32457
7 7 Russia 32207
8 8 France 29691
9 9 Portugal 29559
------------------------------
10 11 Sweden 29455
11 14 Czech Republic 29231
12 10 Switzerland 28735
13 12 Serbia 28531
14 13 Greece 28405
15 15 Turkey 28247
16 16 Denmark 28022
17 19 Slovakia 27048
18 17 Romania 27005
------------------------------
19 22 Israel 26412
20 24 Norway 26210
21 18 Bulgaria 25978
22 21 Ireland 25668
23 20 Scotland 25646
24 23 Finland 25207
25 26 Bosnia-Herzegovina 24125
26 25 Northern Ireland 24118
27 27 Austria 23200
------------------------------
28 29 Latvia 22143
29 28 Hungary 21888
30 31 Slovenia 21701
31 30 Lithuania 20871
32 34 Belarus 20295
33 32 Belgium 20225
34 33 Wales 20054
35 35 Macedonia 19409
36 36 Albania 18379
------------------------------
37 37 Cyprus 17551
38 38 Estonia 16592
39 39 Georgia 15919
40 41 Moldova 15794
41 40 Iceland 15404
42 42 Armenia 15224
43 44 Kazakhstan 14830
44 43 Montenegro 14701
45 45 Liechtenstein 13661
------------------------------
46 46 Luxembourg 11952
47 47 Azerbaijan 11860
48 48 Malta 11597
49 49 Faroe Islands 10760
50 50 Andorra 9317
51 51 San Marino 7843

13 comments:

  1. Esti sigur ca ai facut calculul corect?
    Vad pe un alt site european(http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2009) un alt punctaj si nu stiu care e corect.
    In rest,felicitari pentru munca depusa,pentru ca sunt putini care se incumeta la o activitate statistica asa minutioasa!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ultimul link de pe acea pagina e catre acest blog, deci Raoul Da Silva are incredere in mine :)

    De ce sunt diferente? Eu deja dau echipelor cele 10000 de puncte pentru infrangere, astfel incat valorile sa varieze mai putin. Raoul nu face asta.

    Multumesc pentru felicitari :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Si care este cel oficial,ca n-am gasit nicaieri un comunicat in care sa fie prezentat modul de calcul?
    Oricum speram ca Romania sa-si mentina macar locul din prezent si sa nu alunecam in grupa 3 valorica.
    Sunt suficiente 4 p,pt pastrarea locului 18,chiar in conditiile dublei victorii a Israelului?
    P.S. Cat ai fost in vacanta am studiat celalalt clasament si de aceea am fost uimit de diferentele de punctaj.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Nu exista o varianta oficiala - si eu si Raoul vom avea aceleasi valori dupa meciurile de baraj.

    Modalitatea de calcul este prezentata in acest fisier pdf.

    Cat despre scenarii legate de urna a doua, poate putin mai tarziu.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Multumesc de lamuriri.:)
    E corecta pozitia fata de scenariile urnelor,mai ales ca,din cate stiu,UEFA nu a prezentat un comunicat oficial referitor la sistemul de calificare,(ma refer la numarul grupelor).:)

    ReplyDelete
  6. Da, nu se cunoaste inca formatul pentru preliminarii.

    Eu as spune ca e corecta, dar nu cred ca sunt foarte obiectiv :D

    ReplyDelete
  7. I thought that the draw will take place only after the WC.
    I think that Israel is a strong favorite now for pot 3.

    ReplyDelete
  8. This is Raoul (www.world-results.net). Just to confirm, yes, both rankings will be the same (or should be) once the qualifiers have finished. Edgar has already pointed out the different way of working things out. If you look at the group 9 teams (who have finished their qualifying group), you'll notice that the points are exactly the same in both our calculations.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Amir, no, the draw for the Euro 2012 indeed takes place in February 2010, before the World Cup takes place. This gives countries many months to plan their trips that may start just one month after the World Cup has finished. In other words, if they did the draw after the World Cup finals, they would have to rush their preparations, and nobody wants that.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Check out my rating site please.

    www.vampirerating.com

    My e-mail is

    vampirerating@yahoo.com

    ReplyDelete
  11. There is a battle on the last 2 places of Pot 2.
    If we'll consider for each team only the 10,000 points for the last game, we'll get the following:

    17) Israel 27,652
    18- Slovakia 27,008
    ---------------------------
    19) Romania 26,905
    20) Finland 26,427
    21) Norway 26,210 (finished playing)
    22) Ireland 26,068
    23) Bulgaria 25,918

    A win/draw in the last game will worth 1,200 / 400 points (not including ~20additional points per goal difference).

    Last games are:
    Switzerland - Israel : crucial game for both teams
    Poland - Slovakia : crucial game for Slovakia, not important for Poland. Slovakia should win.
    Romania - Faroe Isl. : not important for both teams. Romania will probably win.
    Germany - Finland : not important for both. Germany will probably win.
    Ireland - Montenegro : not important for both. Ireland should win.
    Bulgaria - Georgia : not important for both. Bulgaria should win.

    leaving out the game between Israel/Switzerland, we'll get the following table:

    17) Slovakia 28,228
    18- Romania 28,125
    ---------------------------
    19) Israel* 27,652 - missing game
    20) Finland 26,427
    21) Norway 26,210 (finished playing)
    22) Ireland 27,288
    23) Bulgaria 27,138

    This means that only a win in Switzerland will give Israel a place in the 2nd pot. A draw will be enough only if Slovakia/Romania will not win their games.

    ReplyDelete
  12. @tomer

    I think you forgot the play-offs. Ireland for instance could win both legs of the play-off and climb in the 2nd pot.

    ReplyDelete
  13. @Edgar - you are 100% correct.
    I forgot the playoff games as you wrote.

    Regarding the expected results of Ireland in the playoff, as far as I see they will not be ranked, hence will get a stronger team. In that case they will probably manage to get no more than 4 points in the playoff that will probably keep them in the 3rd pot.

    ReplyDelete