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Wednesday, September 8, 2010

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CAF (8 September 2010)

The preliminary draw will take place in July or August 2011, not in November 2011 as I assumed, but that doesn't change much, because CAF used the July 2007 ranking for the draw.

Assumptions:

- CAF will again have 5 spots
- CAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CAF will choose the July 2011 ranking for seeding

The July 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2007 and July 2011. We already have 50% of the formula. Things can still change as there are many matches to be played involving African teams: CAN 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.
This the July 2011 ranking (for CAF only) using matches played up to and including September 7th, 2010 and matches scheduled up to July 2011 (only those on fifa.com).

The "1.0" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Botswana climb from third to first pot.
Guinea-Bissau climb from fifth to third pot.

South Africa climb to first pot.
Cape Verde Islands and Sudan climb to second pot.
Burundi and Chad climb to third pot.
Central African Republic climb to fourth pot.

Benin and Mali drop to second pot.
Libya, Angola and Cogo drop to third pot.
Namibia, Congo DR and Swaziland drop to fourth pot.
Comoros and Mauritius drop to fifth pot.

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
 1  1 Egypt                    612
2 4 Côte d'Ivoire 597
3 7 Ghana 535
4 2 Gabon 520
5 6 Cameroon 494
6 3 Nigeria 462
7 5 Algeria 421
8 8 Burkina Faso 415
9 11 Tunisia 413
10 16 South Africa 411
11 12 Uganda 400
12 33 Botswana 376
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13 14 Malawi 327
14 13 Zambia 308
15 21 Senegal 306
16 28 Cape Verde Islands 302
17 10 Benin 292
18 23 Guinea 291
19 9 Mali 266
20 22 Gambia 257
21 17 Mozambique 255
22 30 Sudan 225
23 19 Morocco 220
24 15 Togo 219
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25 20 Libya 217
26 29 Tanzania 194
27 18 Angola 171
28 27 Kenya 157
29 35 Sierra Leone 156
30 25 Zimbabwe 147
31 24 Congo 132
32 26 Rwanda 126
33 49 Guinea-Bissau 121
34 38 Burundi 112
35 36 Madagascar 99
36 37 Chad 98
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37 31 Namibia 97
38 32 Congo DR 88
39 43 Liberia 77
40 34 Swaziland 76
40 40 Niger 76
42 42 Ethiopia 75
43 39 Equatorial Guinea 51
44 52 Central African Republic 50
45 40 Lesotho 47
46 45 Mauritania 32
47 44 Eritrea 29
48 45 Somalia 23
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49 47 Comoros 19
50 48 Mauritius 15
51 49 Djibouti 12
52 51 Seychelles 11
53 52 Sao Tome e Principe 0

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