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Friday, January 21, 2011

FIFA Ranking: February 2011 preview (II)

Next update: January 28st, 2011.

Looking at points dropped (best case scenario), the top 10 losers are African teams:

-324 - Egypt
-146 - Algeria
-126 - Nigeria
-124 - Gabon
-88 - Zambia
-75 - Mali
-71 - Angola
-68 - Cameroon
-46 - Benin
-39 - Botswana

Botswana join the list after losing to Sweden.

Looking at points won (worst case scenario):

117 - Uzbekistan
99 - Jordan
79 - Iran
78 - Qatar
67 - El Salvador
48 - Costa Rica
47 - Sweden
47 - Iraq
29 - Argentina
25 - Syria

El Salvador and Costa Rica added to the list after performing well at the 2011 Copa Centroamericana.

January 2011 rank - Country - January 2011 points - Minimum points - Maximum points

1 Spain 1887 1887 1887
2 Netherlands 1723 1723 1723
3 Germany 1485 1485 1485
4 Brazil 1446 1446 1446
5 Argentina 1338 1367 1367
6 England 1195 1195 1195
7 Uruguay 1152 1152 1152
8 Portugal 1090 1090 1090
9 Croatia 1075 1075 1075
10 Egypt 1036 712 712
11 Greece 1016 1016 1016
12 Norway 995 995 995
13 Russia 982 982 982
14 Italy 965 965 965
15 Chile 950 935 970
16 Ghana 924 940 940
17 Slovenia 897 897 897
18 France 867 867 867
18 USA 867 857 894
20 Slovakia 854 854 854
21 Côte d'Ivoire 845 813 813
22 Switzerland 841 841 841
23 Serbia 837 837 837
24 Paraguay 832 832 832
25 Montenegro 824 824 824
26 Australia 796 797 917
27 Mexico 795 803 803
28 Denmark 790 802 802
29 Japan 776 778 900
30 Czech Republic 751 751 751
31 Turkey 741 741 741
32 Nigeria 730 604 604
33 Sweden 712 759 759
34 Ukraine 702 702 702
35 Republic of Ireland 681 681 681
36 Algeria 678 532 532
37 Belarus 660 655 655
38 Cameroon 650 582 582
39 Korea Republic 649 668 804
40 Gabon 640 516 516
41 Hungary 632 632 632
42 Burkina Faso 619 598 598
43 Northern Ireland 615 615 615
44 Tunisia 592 560 560
45 Bosnia-Herzegovina 582 583 583
46 Austria 569 569 569
46 Guinea 569 564 564
48 Colombia 558 558 558
49 Bulgaria 555 555 555
50 Israel 551 551 551
51 South Africa 550 562 562
52 Ecuador 542 537 537
52 Scotland 542 542 542
54 Botswana 535 496 496
55 Lithuania 532 532 532
56 Honduras 531 535 614
56 Romania 531 531 531
58 Belgium 526 526 526
59 Jamaica 522 525 525
60 Armenia 515 514 514
60 Venezuela 515 513 513
62 Cuba 512 498 498
63 New Zealand 506 506 506
64 Albania 497 497 497
65 Iran 491 570 759
66 Peru 486 486 486
67 Panama 475 471 601
68 Mali 474 399 399
69 Costa Rica 467 515 655
70 Senegal 465 459 459
71 Libya 451 451 451
72 Benin 449 403 403
72 Georgia 449 449 449
72 Poland 449 449 449
75 Cape Verde Islands 444 444 444
76 Latvia 440 429 429
77 Morocco 437 443 443
78 Saudi Arabia 423 410 410
79 China PR 419 431 431
79 Finland 419 422 422
81 FYR Macedonia 418 418 418
81 Zambia 418 330 330
83 Uganda 416 394 394
84 Canada 411 414 414
84 Moldova 411 411 411
86 Estonia 386 386 386
87 Trinidad and Tobago 373 351 351
88 Angola 368 297 297
89 Cyprus 367 367 367
90 Haiti 358 349 349
91 Malawi 355 371 371
92 Mozambique 353 351 351
93 Bahrain 351 355 355
94 Grenada 349 358 358
94 Niger 349 349 349
96 Bolivia 344 344 344
97 Azerbaijan 343 344 344
98 Iraq 334 381 523
99 Kuwait 328 330 330
100 Sudan 314 301 301
101 Togo 313 313 313
102 United Arab Emirates 304 278 278
103 Antigua and Barbuda 299 303 303
104 Oman 297 281 281
105 Gambia 290 290 290
105 Qatar 290 368 556
107 Jordan 286 385 587
108 Uzbekistan 285 402 612
109 Korea DPR 283 288 288
110 Syria 277 302 302
111 Guyana 275 273 273
112 Central African Republic 263 263 263
113 Iceland 261 263 263
113 Wales 261 261 261
115 Suriname 257 257 257
116 El Salvador 251 318 500
117 Guatemala 247 187 220
118 Zimbabwe 246 264 264
119 Thailand 244 237 237
120 Tanzania 243 232 232
121 St. Kitts and Nevis 242 242 242
122 Congo 239 239 239
123 Sierra Leone 233 233 233
124 Ethiopia 231 231 231
125 Kenya 225 208 208
126 Indonesia 224 192 192
127 Yemen 222 230 230
128 Congo DR 211 234 234
129 Dominica 196 196 196
130 Barbados 187 183 183
131 Puerto Rico 184 187 187
132 Luxembourg 180 185 185
133 Turkmenistan 173 182 182
134 Faroe Islands 171 171 171
134 Rwanda 171 171 171
136 Vietnam 167 172 172
137 Kazakhstan 161 161 161
138 Namibia 156 157 157
139 Singapore 151 139 139
140 Burundi 147 134 134
140 Chad 147 147 147
142 Malaysia 145 145 145
143 Tajikistan 141 141 141
144 India 132 126 126
144 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 132 110 110
146 Hong Kong 128 138 138
147 Guinea-Bissau 121 121 121
148 Liechtenstein 116 116 116
149 Myanmar 109 108 108
150 Netherlands Antilles 107 107 107
151 Fiji 103 103 103
152 Chinese Taipei 102 93 93
153 Philippines 97 101 101
154 Madagascar 91 91 91
155 New Caledonia 89 89 89
156 Cayman Islands 88 88 88
157 Nicaragua 86 79 188
158 Bangladesh 84 84 84
159 Liberia 82 82 82
159 Swaziland 82 82 82
161 Maldives 81 81 81
162 Sri Lanka 79 79 79
163 Malta 76 76 76
164 Equatorial Guinea 72 72 72
165 Cambodia 68 68 68
166 Vanuatu 67 67 67
167 Dominican Republic 66 66 66
168 Laos 64 64 64
168 Lebanon 64 61 61
170 Lesotho 62 62 62
171 Pakistan 56 56 56
172 Bermuda 55 67 67
173 Belize 54 64 64
173 Nepal 54 54 54
175 Kyrgyzstan 50 50 50
176 Mauritania 49 49 49
177 British Virgin Islands 41 41 41
178 Eritrea 40 40 40
178 Palestine 40 40 40
178 Solomon Islands 40 40 40
181 St. Lucia 37 37 37
182 Mongolia 32 32 32
183 Tahiti 31 31 31
184 Samoa 26 26 26
185 Somalia 23 23 23
186 Comoros 19 19 19
186 Turks and Caicos Islands 19 19 19
188 Cook Islands 17 17 17
188 Guam 17 17 17
188 Tonga 17 17 17
191 Mauritius 16 16 16
192 Djibouti 15 15 15
193 Macau 14 14 14
194 Bahamas 13 13 13
195 Afghanistan 10 10 10
195 Seychelles 10 10 10
197 Bhutan 9 9 9
197 Brunei Darussalam 9 9 9
199 Aruba 7 7 7
200 US Virgin Islands 5 5 5
201 Timor-Leste 3 3 3
202 Andorra 2 2 2
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Anguilla 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

17 comments:

  1. If that's the worst case scenario, I am shocked El Salvador can grab 67pts for beating Belize and Nicaragua and then taking 3 losses.

    ReplyDelete
  2. What about Panama? They beat all 3 and would only take 2 losses and they can't even make the list?!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Edgar,

    I've always been amused that FIFA has been ranking the USA much higher than Mexico for quite some time, while the ELO Rankings show the opposite.

    If you had an interest (and time), it would be great to see what is the driving the FIFA (point) difference between these two teams. Can one match (USA vs Spain?) account for all the difference? Or, does one year or multiple years account for the difference? It would be interesting to see such your conclusions from an attribution.

    It would also be great to see the same thing for the ELO Rankings, although I realize ELO uses a full history and not just the last four years. But to make things simpler, maybe there was a time around 4 years when USA and MEX had similar point levels that could be used a starting point. From there, was it a few bad losses that hurt the USA?

    Many thanks if you choose this mission :-)

    ReplyDelete
  4. @ Dorian

    I can help you out a bit with this. The biggest contributing factor to this difference will be the 5-0 win for Mexico over the US at the Gold Cup.

    FIFA doesn't care how much you win a match by, ELO does. FIFA doesn't care whether you win home or away, ELO does. In ELO teams also strip points from the teams they beat. Sadly I can't get the ELO ratings page up, I've been trying for a few days. But Mexico will have stripped a tremendous number of points off the US for winning 5-0 away at a continental finals.

    ReplyDelete
  5. @ Dorian

    In fact this will have bled a lot of points from the US in ELO, as they will have recieved the reductions that come with home wins in all of their Gold Cup games. So I think that is your big difference maker.

    ReplyDelete
  6. @Lorric,

    Thank you for pointing out the USA-MEX Gold Cup match. I found a cached version of ELO Rankings (matches through Jan 17, 2011), and that match added 76 points to MEX while subtracting these points from USA.

    The cached version had MEX with 1828 points (11th) and USA with 1743 points (T-24th) for a difference of 85 points.

    So, had that match not taken place, USA would have 1819 points (11th) and MEX would have 1752 points (23rd) -- basically swapping places.

    I wonder how USA and MEX would be impacted in the FIFA Rankings had that match not occurred. (MEX's points would be unchanged, right?). USA's points would drop by...?

    Thx.

    ReplyDelete
  7. @ Dorian

    You're welcome. 76! That might make the ELO Rankings' Biggest Upset list!

    You'll have to leave that one to Edgar, but if the match hadn't taken place, Mexico's score would fall for not having the victory, while US's score would rise for not being beaten, widening the gap between the two teams in the FIFA rankings.

    ReplyDelete
  8. @Dorian

    Mexico played more friendlies since the last qualifying matches, while USA played more European teams than Mexico who also played several low ranking teams like Gambia, North Korea or New Zealand.. This would hurt Mexico's average more than USA's.

    ReplyDelete
  9. @ Dorian

    Hey there Dorian. I was right, it made the list!

    http://www.eloratings.net/Upsets.htm

    Scroll down to the bottom. It dwarfs a lot of the others for points taken. I don't like the list itself though, I think it should be reserved for biggest point gaps between teams' totals, not heavy victories.

    ReplyDelete
  10. @ Lorric

    Actually El Salvador did not take 3 straight losses. The last one was a loss after a penalty shoot-out which still brings them 1 point.

    ReplyDelete
  11. @ La Selecta

    That was written regarding the "worst case scenario" and written before the semi finals. So if that is accurate (and I wonder if Edgar has mixed up Panama and El Salvador) El Salvador's 67pts should rise for doing a little better than the worst case scenario.

    ReplyDelete
  12. @Soccer-db.net and Lorric

    Thanks guys for helping Dorian.

    @La Selecta

    Lorric is right - it was a worst case scenario - El Salvador losing their next two matches.

    @Lorric

    No, I didn't mixed up Panama and El Salvador. Worst case scenario for Panama would have seen them losing 4 points. El Salvador had dreadful results in the Copa Centramericana build-up, so these wins (qualifier multiplier - 2.5) have really helped them.

    ReplyDelete
  13. You're welcome.

    Oh, I'm so sorry for having the temerity to dare to question your judgement, Oh Great And Wise Edgar! :)

    I'm still surprised that beating two teams at minimum points gain could yield so may points though, especially with losses sprinkled in.

    ReplyDelete
  14. @ Edgar

    You know, that just makes me even more irritated that the AFC Challenge Cup is not treated as a qualifying tournament!

    ReplyDelete
  15. @Lorric

    Oh, I'm so sorry for having the temerity to dare to question your judgement, Oh Great And Wise Edgar! :)

    :)) It's better to ask questions than to believe everything you read on the Internet. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  16. @ Edgar. Oh yes. I like asking questions. But you already know that! :)

    ReplyDelete