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Friday, February 18, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup probable seeding for UEFA teams (18 February 2010)

See the list of probable results.

FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Underachievers

France in the second pot based on their pedigree would be a suprise, but based on the probable results (especially the defeat against Ukraine in June) they would be 11th in Europe in the Elo Ratings.

Italy (7th in Europe in the Elo Ratings) and Sweden (8) fail to reach the first pot.
Ukraine (10), Republic of Ireland (15), Switzerland (17) and Czech Republic (18) fail to reach the second pot.
Poland (23), Bulgaria (25) and Scotland (26) fail to reach the third pot.
Finland (34) fail to reach the fourth pot.

Overachievers

Norway (12) and Greece (16) in the first pot.
Denmark (20), Slovenia (12) and Montenegro (22) in the second pot.
Hungary (29) and Belgium (31) in the third pot.
Albania (40) in the fourth pot.

Slovakia (28) are a special case. Based on the Elo Ratings they would be in the fourth pot, but using the probable July 2011 FIFA ranking they are in the second pot.

 1 Spain                    1622
2 Netherlands 1592
3 Germany 1361
4 England 1281
5 Portugal 1119
6 Croatia 1107
7 Norway 1077
8 Russia 1050
9 Greece 1020
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10 Italy 977
11 Serbia 917
12 Montenegro 888
13 Sweden 884
14 Slovenia 877
15 France 859
16 Slovakia 821
17 Turkey 815
18 Denmark 778
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19 Republic of Ireland 756
20 Switzerland 724
21 Israel 706
22 Czech Republic 703
23 Ukraine 680
24 Belarus 676
25 Romania 646
26 Hungary 603
27 Belgium 587
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28 Austria 584
29 Lithuania 573
30 Bosnia-Herzegovina 555
31 Bulgaria 526
32 Scotland 513
33 Northern Ireland 506
34 Cyprus 478
35 Albania 467
36 Poland 455
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37 Latvia 448
38 Finland 419
39 Armenia 404
40 Georgia 386
41 Moldova 383
42 Estonia 371
43 FYR Macedonia 331
44 Azerbaijan 300
45 Wales 240
--------------------------------
46 Luxembourg 213
47 Iceland 205
48 Kazakhstan 174
49 Faroe Islands 156
50 Liechtenstein 109
51 Malta 83
52 Andorra 0
52 San Marino 0

7 comments:

  1. The idea of Ukraine beating France is something I also find amusing, when they couldn't beat Canada:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=es9NE4fwlhA

    And France are seemingly on a big resurgance. Dumbenech isn't running the circus over there anymore.

    Again, I understand the reasoning, and it's clear you regard the FIFA ranking inferior to ELO, and I think most people do, but still...

    I wonder, have you ever considered using the FIFA ranking to simulate the results too, and see which ranking proves the superior predictor?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I (russsian lurkmore) send an email to edgar, and he says that he love's voros and espn rankings, and for accurate ranking he uses only Elo, but however i think that Edgar underestimates the accuracy of FIFA ranking. Dear Edgar, please compare Elo and FIFA rankings again, fifa is better. I still think the reason is that Romania improves it's worst ever Fifa ranking)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Denmark har just confirmed a friendly against Slovakia. According to the FIFA-ELo difference, i guess it must be one of the best, maybe the best option rankingwise.

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Lorric

    Yes, there's an analysis on ESPN:

    SPI in review: How did it do?

    FIFA at the bottom.

    @Russian Lurkmore

    I never said I "love" Voros' or ESPN's rankings - I just said I think they are better than Elo. About FIFA being better, check the link above. I use Elo because I have the formula to compute the ratings, not because Romania are higher in that ranking. I like ESPN's ranking too and Romania are 61st.

    @Anonymous (Denmark)

    Yes, very good choice. The best option actually. However, I think it had nothing to do with the FIFA Ranking/Elo Rating comparison. Slovakia were one of the last European team available on that date.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Interesting, though I think it will take more than the World Cup to prove which ranking is superior at predicting reults. ELO is probably better outside major tournaments anyway though, simply for factoring home/away. But I see FIFA was significantly outperformed by ELO and the other two systems that I do not know.

    I was really surprised by England being rated so highly by the other three. Two 4ths and a 3rd. And an 8th by FIFA. I've always thought FIFA more accomodating of rapid growth with the 3pts for a win thing. Yet the other three systems had England way ahead of FIFA. Sure, England kicked some serious ass all the way through from qualifying for the tournament to the start of the World Cup, winning nearly every game they played. But they shouldn't have been 4th or 3rd after failing to make the Euro.

    ReplyDelete
  6. A funny group : Norway, Slovenia, Belarus, Albania, Azerbaijan, San Marino.

    A brutal one : Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Finland, Iceland.

    And a random one : Portugal, Denmark, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Luxembourg.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Spain, Italy, Ukraine, Bosnia, Finland and Iceland is a hard one!

    Greece, Montenegro, Belarus, Albania, Moldova and San Marino... is one of the weakest.

    Great job!

    Juan

    ReplyDelete