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Friday, February 11, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for UEFA teams (11 February 2010)

Next update: 1 April 2011

The preliminary draw will take place on July 31st, 2011.

Assumptions:

- UEFA will again have 13 spots
- UEFA will again use the system with 9 groups
- FIFA will use the July 2011 FIFA ranking to seed the teams

The July 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2007 and July 2011. We already 50% of the final ranking. Things can and will change before July 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving European teams: EURO 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.

UEFA will only use the national team coefficient for the European Championships draws (qualifying and final tournament).

This is the July 2011 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including February 10th, 2011 and matches scheduled up to July 2011 (only those on fifa.com).

The "1.0" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Greece and Italy replace Russia and Montenegro in the first pot.
Turkey replace Czech Republic in the second pot.
Scotland replace Israel in the third pot.
Poland replace Moldova in the fourth pot.

Best movers:

9 - Poland
4 - Scotland
3 - Italy and Romania

Worst movers:

-4 - Montenegro and Moldova
-3 - Portugal, Albania and Armenia
-2 - Denmark, Czech Republic, Sweden, Belarus, Israel and Finland

Most points gained:

62 - Poland
59 - Italy
54 - Scotland

Most points lost:

-147 - Montenegro
-95 - Portugal
-68 - Belarus

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points

 1  1 Spain                    1360
2 2 Netherlands 1327
3 3 Germany 1078
4 4 England 1008
5 4 Norway 934
6 8 Croatia 907
7 9 Greece 906
8 11 Italy 874
9 6 Portugal 857
-----------------------------------
10 9 Russia 830
11 7 Montenegro 760
12 12 France 748
13 14 Slovakia 737
14 15 Slovenia 721
15 13 Denmark 709
16 18 Serbia 686
17 16 Switzerland 682
18 20 Turkey 659
-----------------------------------
19 17 Czech Republic 649
20 22 Ukraine 627
21 19 Sweden 624
22 23 Hungary 548
23 21 Belarus 543
24 25 Republic of Ireland 524
25 24 Lithuania 506
26 30 Scotland 504
27 26 Bulgaria 477
-----------------------------------
28 28 Belgium 469
29 27 Israel 458
30 29 Northern Ireland 452
31 34 Romania 442
31 32 Austria 442
33 42 Poland 428
34 31 Albania 422
35 35 Bosnia-Herzegovina 418
36 33 Armenia 404
-----------------------------------
37 37 Latvia 402
38 38 Cyprus 387
39 40 Georgia 386
40 36 Moldova 383
41 39 Finland 366
42 41 Estonia 337
43 43 FYR Macedonia 331
44 44 Azerbaijan 282
45 45 Wales 223
-----------------------------------
46 47 Luxembourg 213
47 46 Iceland 205
48 48 Faroe Islands 156
49 49 Kazakhstan 145
50 50 Liechtenstein 109
51 51 Malta 83
52 52 Andorra 0
52 52 San Marino 0

14 comments:

  1. Ah, so you think Wales will stave off the awesome might of Luxembourg :)

    Unless they pull yet another rabbit out of the hat...

    ReplyDelete
  2. There are some really nasty possibilities here. Potential for a brutal group the likes of which hasn't been seen in decades, likewise a joke group. This will be a fearful draw when it comes.

    ReplyDelete
  3. So we could have these two groups (hardest and weakest):

    Group 1: Spain, France, Sweden, Romania, Wales, Iceland.

    Group 2: Greece, Montenegro, Belarus, Armenia, Moldova, Andorra.

    Great job!

    Juan

    ReplyDelete
  4. @ Juan

    My version would be

    Strong: Spain, France, Sweden, Belgium, Cyprus, Iceland

    Weak: Greece, Montenegro, Lithuania, albania, Moldova, San Marino

    ReplyDelete
  5. Look at three ones:

    Greece, Montenegro, Belarus, Armenia, Moldova, Andorra

    Norway, Slovenia, Lithuania, Albania, Estonia, San Marino

    Croatia, Slovakia, Scotland, Austria, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg

    FIFA definitely will not allow it.

    ReplyDelete
  6. @ Confused

    Odds are none of these ridiculous groups will come out, it's unlikely that any such polarised groups will come out, but the bottom line is it could happen. I could just imagine Greece getting one, they've had extremely favourable draws the last 3 times, it's the reason why they are still clinging to a top seed. But those groups still could come out. There will certainly be some big disparity though. I remember I did a mock draw for one of these once, and drew out the hardest imo teams from pots 2, 3 and 4, and a strong 5th seed into one group with Germany. I'm sure the Germans being the Germans would have just swept them all aside anyway, but sucks for the other teams. Lucky I wasn't doing the real draw.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Strong Group : Spain, Turkey, Ireland, Romania, Finland, Kazakhstan.

    Weak Group : Norway, France, Lithuania, Albania, Azerbaijan, San Marino.

    P.S. Armenia is a strong team, no srsly)

    ReplyDelete
  8. If we think further, the things could be more ridicoulous: Luxemborg will overtake Wales, strong Armenia or even Poland would go one pot down, and e.t.c. actually that funny draws were possible in previous draws, and only Croatia's and Greece's group's were good example's, i'm pretty sure draws would be normal.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Random.org group : Portugal, Turkey, Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Moldova, Kazakhstan.
    Another one : Italy, Russia, Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Andorra.
    And another : Netherlands, Montenegro, Scotland, Belgium, Estonia, Luxembourg.
    Everything is normal.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Nordic group : Norway, Denmark, Sweden, X, Finland, Iceland/Faroe Islands.
    Soviet Group : X, Russia, Ukraine/Belarus/Lithuania, Armenia, Latvia/Georgia/Moldova/Estonia/Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan.
    Central European Group : Germany, Slovakia/Switzerland, Czechia/Hungary, Austria/Poland, X, Liechtenstein.
    British Group : England, X, Ireland/Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, X.

    Far more than in previous years

    ReplyDelete
  11. Balkan group : Croatia/Greece, Montenegro/Slovenia/Serbia/Turkey, Hungary/Bulgaria, Romania/Albania/Bosnia-Herzegovina, Moldova/Macedonia, X.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Group of Death : Spain, Russia, Sweden, Romania, Finland, Iceland.
    Joke Group : Greece, Slovenia, Lithuania, Albania, Azerbaijan, San Marino.
    6th seed (ICE) in brutal group is stronger than 3rd (LTU) in Joke one, however FIFA will alow that, but i think in 2018 they will change their ranking system.
    Also a group with popular, but not always strong teams : Spain, France, Scotland, Belgium, Finland, Iceland.

    ReplyDelete
  13. UEFA change their qual system every time, and i don't think it'll be a 6 and 5 groups..

    ReplyDelete
  14. @Lorric

    If both Wales and Luxembourg lose their remaining matches, Wales will be above Luxembourg. I'll run a simulation later today.

    @Juan

    Thanks!

    @Anonymous

    I think UEFA will keep the format with groups of five or six teams. Read these posts:

    EURO 2012: The possible preliminary format
    EURO 2012 qualifying format update

    ReplyDelete