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Friday, February 4, 2011

FIFA Ranking: March 2011 probable ranking (I)

Next update: February 11th, 2011.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Potential good news for American Samoa, Anguilla, Montserrat, Papua New Guinea and San Marino. Should Andorra lose their match against Moldova, these 5 teams will all climb to join Andorra in the 202nd spot.

Probable March 2011 rank - Team - Probable March 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Spain 1880 0 -7
2 Netherlands 1730 0 7
3 Germany 1508 0 23
4 Brazil 1457 0 11
5 Argentina 1380 0 13
6 England 1183 0 -12
7 Uruguay 1172 0 20
8 Portugal 1075 0 -15
9 Croatia 1071 0 -4
10 Greece 1038 0 22
11 Norway 1000 0 5
12 Russia 977 0 -5
13 Chile 954 1 7
14 Italy 940 -1 -25
15 Japan 938 2 56
16 Ghana 931 -1 -9
17 USA 894 1 25
18 Slovenia 891 -2 -6
19 Slovakia 877 1 23
20 Australia 870 1 23
21 France 867 -2 0
22 Serbia 851 1 14
23 Switzerland 848 -1 7
24 Paraguay 835 0 3
25 Côte d'Ivoire 824 1 11
25 Montenegro 824 0 0
27 Mexico 811 0 8
28 Denmark 804 0 2
29 Sweden 754 0 -5
30 Korea Republic 749 2 14
31 Czech Republic 739 -1 -12
32 Turkey 728 -1 -13
33 Republic of Ireland 699 2 18
34 Ukraine 692 0 -10
35 Egypt 685 -2 -24
36 Hungary 654 1 22
37 Belarus 647 -1 -8
38 Burkina Faso 626 3 28
39 Northern Ireland 623 -1 8
40 Honduras 620 -1 7
41 Nigeria 609 -1 5
42 South Africa 578 5 16
43 Bulgaria 577 8 22
44 Guinea 570 2 6
45 Tunisia 568 3 8
46 Cameroon 559 -3 -23
47 Israel 555 5 4
47 Jamaica 555 12 30
49 Colombia 551 1 -7
49 Iran 551 -5 -20
51 Romania 549 6 18
52 Belgium 542 6 16
53 Lithuania 541 2 9
54 Algeria 539 1 7
55 Bosnia-Herzegovina 534 -13 -49
55 Ecuador 534 -1 -3
55 New Zealand 534 9 28
58 Costa Rica 533 -10 -27
59 Venezuela 531 4 18
60 Peru 530 8 44
61 Austria 524 -16 -45
62 Armenia 520 0 6
63 Gabon 506 -2 -10
64 Scotland 505 -11 -37
65 Cuba 503 0 5
66 Morocco 493 8 50
67 Botswana 487 0 -9
68 Albania 484 -2 -13
69 Panama 482 -9 -36
70 Senegal 477 -1 18
71 Libya 472 -1 21
72 Latvia 448 4 19
73 China PR 439 2 8
74 Georgia 435 -3 -14
75 Poland 427 -4 -22
75 Uzbekistan 427 2 3
77 Cape Verde Islands 419 -4 -25
78 Saudi Arabia 416 4 6
79 FYR Macedonia 415 0 -3
80 Benin 413 3 10
81 Finland 410 -3 -12
81 Jordan 410 3 11
83 Canada 390 -3 -24
84 Mali 389 0 -10
85 Estonia 388 2 2
86 Uganda 385 0 -9
87 Moldova 383 -6 -28
88 Iraq 379 0 -2
89 Qatar 377 1 9
90 El Salvador 373 8 26
91 Malawi 370 -2 -1
92 Mozambique 368 2 17
93 Bolivia 356 6 12
94 Cyprus 355 -3 -12
95 Grenada 354 -3 -3
96 Trinidad and Tobago 352 -2 1
97 Bahrain 344 -4 -10
98 Zambia 337 3 7
99 Gambia 325 9 35
99 Haiti 325 -3 -24
101 Azerbaijan 321 -2 -23
102 Antigua and Barbuda 313 2 10
103 Togo 311 0 -2
104 Kuwait 308 -3 -22
105 Angola 299 2 2
105 Niger 299 -9 -50
107 Sudan 298 -1 -3
108 Syria 295 -3 -7
109 Guyana 284 3 10
110 Oman 275 0 -6
111 United Arab Emirates 264 0 -14
112 Central African Republic 263 2 0
113 Korea DPR 259 -4 -30
114 Suriname 257 3 0
115 Iceland 256 -1 -7
116 Wales 251 0 -10
117 Thailand 247 3 10
118 Congo DR 244 4 12
119 Congo 240 0 1
120 Tanzania 235 3 4
121 Sierra Leone 233 0 0
122 Ethiopia 231 1 0
123 Guatemala 220 3 0
124 Yemen 219 1 -11
125 St. Kitts and Nevis 218 -7 -24
126 Zimbabwe 213 -13 -51
127 Kenya 202 0 -6
128 Indonesia 201 1 9
129 Dominica 193 -1 -3
130 Puerto Rico 187 0 0
131 Luxembourg 181 0 -4
132 Rwanda 175 3 4
133 Vietnam 172 1 0
134 Faroe Islands 171 1 0
135 Barbados 167 -3 -16
136 Namibia 158 2 1
137 Kazakhstan 151 0 -10
138 Malaysia 145 2 0
139 Singapore 142 3 3
140 Chad 140 -1 -7
141 Hong Kong 138 2 0
142 Liechtenstein 134 5 18
143 Burundi 133 1 -1
144 India 126 1 0
145 Guinea-Bissau 121 1 0
146 Netherlands Antilles 115 4 8
147 Chinese Taipei 114 7 21
148 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 113 0 3
148 Tajikistan 113 -7 -28
150 Philippines 106 2 5
151 Fiji 103 0 0
152 Cambodia 102 14 34
153 New Caledonia 97 0 0
154 Turkmenistan 94 -21 -88
155 Equatorial Guinea 92 10 20
156 Madagascar 91 -1 0
157 Cayman Islands 90 -1 2
158 Swaziland 86 0 4
159 Liberia 82 -1 0
160 Maldives 81 0 0
160 Myanmar 81 -11 -27
162 Vanuatu 76 1 0
163 Nicaragua 75 -2 -4
164 Bermuda 74 3 7
165 Belize 66 4 2
165 Dominican Republic 66 3 0
167 Malta 65 -4 -11
168 Lesotho 63 3 1
169 Afghanistan 61 26 51
170 Lebanon 58 2 -3
171 Laos 57 -2 -7
171 Palestine 57 7 17
173 Pakistan 56 0 0
174 Nepal 54 0 0
175 Sri Lanka 51 -14 -28
176 Bangladesh 49 -19 -35
176 Kyrgyzstan 49 -1 -1
176 Mauritania 49 0 0
179 British Virgin Islands 41 -2 0
180 Eritrea 40 -2 0
180 Solomon Islands 40 -2 0
182 St. Lucia 37 -1 0
183 Mongolia 32 -1 0
184 Tahiti 31 -1 0
185 Samoa 26 -1 0
186 Somalia 23 -1 0
187 Macau 22 6 8
188 Comoros 19 -2 0
189 Cook Islands 17 -1 0
189 Guam 17 -1 0
189 Tonga 17 -1 0
192 Mauritius 16 -1 0
193 Djibouti 15 -1 0
194 Bahamas 13 0 0
194 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 -8 -6
196 Seychelles 10 -1 0
197 Bhutan 9 0 0
197 Brunei Darussalam 9 0 0
199 Aruba 7 0 0
200 US Virgin Islands 5 0 0
201 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
202 American Samoa 0 1 0
202 Andorra 0 0 -2
202 Anguilla 0 1 0
202 Montserrat 0 1 0
202 Papua New Guinea 0 1 0
202 San Marino 0 1 0

8 comments:

  1. Let's say that El Salvador wins Haiti in the friendly on February 9, 2011. The result will be 26 points or is there any other external points from past (4-year) encounters.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear Edgar, what will be if Armenia will win their game against Georgia.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Edgar. A while back I expressed concern on the chance that Wales, while I have no love for them and hope my England beat them in the upcoming qualifier, may end up in the bottom pot for World Cup qualifying. But it is humiliating for British football. I watched them deliver a pathetic display against a very ordinary (on the night) Ireland side, going down 3-0. But I thought they would be in a duel with Iceland to determine who would claim the last spot in Pot E. But now, it looks lie Luxembourg may have a chance of pulling the rug out from under both teams, following up their draw with Algeria with a victory over Slovakia. My questions, if you can spare the time, are what will this victory do for Luxembourg's points total, and which team is likely to win this battle for the last spot in Pot E when the time for the draw comes, with devaluation and such surely influencing things.

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Lorric: although my calculations are not as accurate as Edgar's, I think Luxembourg could well have done the trick with their victory against Slovakia. Luxembourg savours a 20 point lead (approx.) on Wales at the moment and a 60 point lead over Iceland.
    So, especially Wales will have to do their utmost best to overtake Luxembourg. Iceland has no chance anymore, the difference is too big.

    By the way, for all the pots it will go down to the wire. Very exciting months to look forward to.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Tobcoach. I saw you on the FIFA Rankings site last month telling the Egyptians of their impending doom, ha ha!

    I take it you mean that will be the predicted points situation when the draw comes, since Iceland have the lead right now. They must be losing something big to drop away so much. If Wales do end up bottom pot, I'll just have to hope that they draw Luxembourg as their 5th seed. That way, most people will just assume Luxembourg to be the bottom seed.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Yes Lorric, I simply couldn't resist to comment on the euphoria of Egyptian fans. It's pretty quiet there right now with African fans, isn't it? I have absolutely nothing against African football, but especially in Northern Africa, emotions sometimes take over from ratio.

    Iceland now have a pretty big lead, but due to the fact that the Icelandic results in the spring of 2010 (draws with Cyprus an Mexico and wins over Faroe Islands and Andorra) will devaluate 50% in strenght, they will lose a lot of points.

    Make no mistake, the mentioned results are big results for Iceland and the devaluation of those results have a heavy impact on their points total. The drop of Iceland will be visible in the April rankings.

    Only when Iceland can produce fine results in their upcoming qualifiers against Cyprus and Denmark, they could be in with a shout after all.

    As for Wales, well, they only have a qualifier against England (not much hope, but you never know) and friendlies against Scotland and Northern Ireland to boost their rankings. Luxembourg will not lose that much points anymore.

    I hope Wales still will pass Luxembourg. I have a bit of a soft spot for Wales.

    ReplyDelete
  7. @ Tobcoach to be fair the Egyptians do have bigger fish to fry right now. But like you I was also irittated by the incessant chest beating and fist pumping from the Egyptians.

    So that's where the points go. I don't think they have a chance against Denmark after seeing Denmark first hand against my England last night, even though we won, it was an even contest. I expect Wales to fight like the devil against England and their big players to show up. The idea of Bale vs Johnson sends a chill down my spine, he was a disgrace against Denmark, though funnily enough assisted on the winning goal after winning the ball in midfield and going on a run. I like Glen Johnson, but he's been well out of form lately and was terrible vs Denmark.

    If Wales play in the Carling Nations cup the same way they did against Ireland, they're going to be in Pot F barring a result against England.

    ReplyDelete
  8. @La Selecta

    Yes, only those 26 points.

    @Anonymous (Feb 9)

    With a win, Armenia would have had 556 points - 47th in the ranking. However, they lost so they will be 65th.

    @Tobcoach

    Thanks again! :)

    @Lorric

    Seeding lists will be posted later today.

    ReplyDelete