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Friday, April 22, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): First pot scenarios

Based on current list of fixtures, five teams are already safe in the first pot: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England and Italy.

Seven teams are fighting for the last four places available in the first pot.

Greece: Malta (ECQ - H) (Italy match has been canceled)
Croatia: Georgia (ECQ - H)
Portugal: Norway (ECQ - H)
Norway: Portugal (ECQ - A), Lithuania (F - H)
Montenegro: Bulgaria (ECQ - H)
France: Belarus (ECQ - A), Ukraine (F - A), Poland (F - A)
Russia: Armenia (ECQ - H)

France and Russia depend on other results going their way, but the other five teams (yes, including Montenegro) have their faith in their own hands.

Greece

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Greece - Malta 1

Other options:

Greece - Malta X and two of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)
Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2)

Greece - Malta 2 and two of the following must happen:

(Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2) or Portugal - Norway 2
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Belarus - France 1X or Ukraine - France 1x or Poland - France 1

Croatia

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Croatia - Georgia 1

Other options:

Croatia - Georgia X and two of the following must happen:

(Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2) or (Portugal - Norway 2)
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta 2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Croatia - Georgia 2 and three of the following must happen:

Portugal - Norway 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
Belarus - France 1x or France to make at most two points against Ukraine and Poland

Portugal

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Portugal - Norway 1

Other options:

Portugal - Norway X and two of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Portugal - Norway 2 and all three to happen:

Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
(Belarus - France 1X and Ukraine - France 1 and Poland - France 1X) or (Belarus - France 1 and France not to win both games against Ukraine and Poland)

Norway

Safe in pot 1 if:

Portugal - Norway 2

OR

Portugal - Norway X
Norway - Lithuania 1X

Other options:

Portugal - Norway X, Norway - Lithuania 2 and one of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Portugal - Norway 1, Norway - Lithuania 1 and two of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Portugal Norway 1, Norway - Lithuania X and three of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
(Belarus - France 1x or France to make at most two points against Ukraine and Poland or Ukraine - France 1)

Portugal Norway 1, Norway - Lithuania 2 and three of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
(Belarus - France 1x or France to make at most one point against Ukraine and Poland)

Montenegro

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Montenegro - Bulgaria 1

Any other results means Pot 2.

Russia

Russia - Armenia 1 and three of the following must happen:

(Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2) or (Portugal - Norway 2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Belarus - France 1X or France to make at most two points against Ukraine and Poland or Ukraine - France 1

Any other results means Pot 2.

France

Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France 2 and two of the following to happen:

Greece - Malta X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Croatia - Georgia X2
Portugal - Norway 12 or (Portugal - Norway X and Norway - Lithuania 2)


Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France X and two of the following to happen:

Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta 2

Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France X, Poland - France 2

or

Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France 1

and two of the following to happen:

Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2


Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France X, Poland - France X

and three of the following to happen:

Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania 2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2



Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France X, Poland - France 1

or

Belarus - France X, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France 2

and all three to happen:

Portugal - Norway 1
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2

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