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Friday, June 24, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: UEFA pots (24 June 2011)

I don't expect teams will schedule friendlies between now and the July 30 draw, so this is the final version.

Romania and Estonia lost their games, so no changes from last time.

Looking at the May 20 simulations, two teams managed to pull off upsets.

Faroe Islands defeated Estonia and managed to climb in Pot 5 at the expense of Iceland (favorites at that time) and Wales (front runners after defeating Northern Ireland). Wales missed the fifth pot by 0.0691559 points. Faroe Islands have 273.4821429, while Wales have 273.412987. More info on Faroe Islands vs. Wales.

Poland defeated Argentina and managed to overtake Armenia for a place in the fourth pot. In May when I found out Poland were to play Argentina I thought they will end up in the fifth pot as Austria did in 2007. However, Argentina brought a B-team and Poland took the 3 points. With a draw, they would have been in the fifth pot.

1 Spain                    1588
 2 Netherlands              1542
 3 Germany                  1305
 4 England                  1146
 5 Portugal                 1076
 6 Italy                    1059
 7 Croatia                  1033
 8 Norway                    972
 9 Greece                    959
--------------------------------
10 France                    920
11 Montenegro                915
12 Russia                    914
13 Sweden                    884
14 Denmark                   857
15 Slovenia                  833
16 Turkey                    820
17 Serbia                    797
18 Slovakia                  779
--------------------------------
19 Switzerland               778
20 Israel                    771
21 Republic of Ireland       752
22 Belgium                   691
23 Czech Republic            670
24 Bosnia-Herzegovina        642
25 Belarus                   636
26 Ukraine                   620
27 Hungary                   603
--------------------------------
28 Bulgaria                  599
29 Romania                   571
30 Georgia                   530
31 Lithuania                 526
32 Albania                   524
33 Scotland                  513
34 Northern Ireland          498
35 Austria                   479
36 Poland                    474
--------------------------------
37 Armenia                   462
38 Finland                   419
39 Estonia                   399
40 Cyprus                    398
41 Latvia                    388
42 Moldova                   383
43 FYR Macedonia             338
44 Azerbaijan                282
45 Faroe Islands             273
--------------------------------
45 Wales                     273
47 Liechtenstein             253
48 Iceland                   244
49 Kazakhstan                231
50 Luxembourg                213
51 Malta                      83
52 Andorra                     0
52 San Marino                  0

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece
Pot 2: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia
Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary
Pot 4: Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Lithuania, Albania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland
Pot 5: Armenia, Finland, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands
Pot 6: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

Differences compared to the 2010 World Cup seeding:

Best movers (pots):

4 - Montenegro
3 - Slovenia
2 - Norway and Slovakia
1 - England, Denmark, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Hungary, Georgia, Albania, Austria, Estonia and Faroe Islands

Worst movers (pots):

-2 - Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Scotland, Poland, Finland and Wales
-1 - France, Israel, Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Iceland and Kazakhstan

Differences compared to the EURO 2012 seeding:

Best movers (pots):

3 - Montenegro
2 - Norway and Slovenia
1 - Greece, Belgium, Belarus, Hungary, Georgia, Albania, Azerbaijan and Faroe Islands

Worst movers (pots):

-2 - Romania, Finland and Wales
-1 - France, Russia, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Cyprus, Latvia, FYR Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Iceland and Kazakhstan

Pots based on the Elo Ratings

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Croatia, Italy, Sweden, France
Pot 2: Republic of Ireland, Russia, Turkey, Norway, Ukraine, Switzerland, Greece, Denmark, Serbia
Pot 3: Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Israel, Montenegro, Poland, Slovenia, Scotland, Belgium
Pot 4: Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Slovakia, Belarus, Finland, Austria, Lithuania, Wales, Georgia
Pot 5: FYR Macedonia, Cyprus, Albania, Northern Ireland, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, Armenia, Iceland
Pot 6: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Liechtenstein, Malta, Luxembourg, Andorra, San Marino

Differences compared to the Elo Ratings pots:

2 - Slovakia
1 - Norway, Greece, Montenegro, Slovenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Hungary, Albania, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan and Faroe Islands

-2 - Wales
-1 - France, Sweden, Switzerland, Republic of Ireland, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Scotland, Poland, Finland and Iceland

4 comments:

  1. Poland also played in quite experimental squad against Argentina, to be precise.

    ReplyDelete
  2. In Poland experimental squad is a normal thing.

    ReplyDelete
  3. the current fifa-world rankings state that wales is ranked higher than the faroe-islands, despite having slightly less points.

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Anonymous/Poland

    Yes, but not quite as Argentina. Still, these are the rules so congratulations for making it to the fourth pot!

    @Anonymous/Wales/Faroe Islands

    See this post.

    UEFA seeding: Wales vs. Faroe Islands

    ReplyDelete