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Friday, August 5, 2011

FIFA Ranking: August 2011 probable ranking

Next update: 12 August 2011.

Spain's top position finally in danger. If Spain lose against Italy and Netherlands defeat England, Netherlands will overtake Spain. If Spain manage a draw and Netherlands get the 3 points, they will be tied for 1st place with 1581 points.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Probable August 2011 rank - Team - Probable August 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1616 0 28
2 Netherlands 1581 0 39
3 Germany 1330 0 25
4 Uruguay 1174 1 18
5 Brazil 1156 -1 -46
6 England 1112 0 -34
7 Portugal 1060 0 -16
8 Italy 1055 0 -4
9 Argentina 1017 1 4
10 Croatia 1009 -1 -24
11 Chile 959 0 -14
12 Norway 943 0 -29
13 Russia 940 5 26
14 Greece 937 -1 -22
15 Montenegro 927 2 12
16 Côte d'Ivoire 919 -2 -3
17 France 918 -2 -2
18 Japan 913 -2 -5
19 Mexico 864 1 -5
20 Sweden 858 -1 -26
21 Denmark 857 0 0
22 Slovenia 849 0 16
23 Australia 834 0 3
24 Turkey 811 0 -9
25 Paraguay 807 1 3
26 Peru 806 -1 1
27 USA 792 3 14
28 Serbia 784 -1 -13
29 Slovakia 780 0 1
30 Switzerland 758 0 -20
31 Republic of Ireland 754 2 2
32 Israel 747 0 -24
33 Korea Republic 741 -5 -40
34 Ghana 740 2 44
35 Egypt 738 -1 3
36 Colombia 730 -1 23
37 Belgium 657 0 -34
38 Bosnia-Herzegovina 656 3 14
38 Venezuela 656 2 8
40 Burkina Faso 646 -1 -15
41 Senegal 641 5 22
42 Czech Republic 635 -4 -35
43 Jamaica 631 1 -1
44 Nigeria 625 -1 -10
45 Belarus 617 -3 -19
46 Ukraine 615 -1 -5
47 Hungary 613 0 10
48 Algeria 612 4 37
49 Bulgaria 604 -1 5
50 South Africa 602 -1 5
51 Cameroon 582 -1 -13
52 Honduras 567 -1 -25
53 Romania 558 0 -13
54 Iran 556 0 -5
55 Lithuania 552 3 26
56 Northern Ireland 545 6 47
57 Tunisia 543 -2 -10
58 Costa Rica 537 -2 5
59 Georgia 522 -2 -8
60 Scotland 518 1 5
61 Panama 514 4 27
62 Libya 504 1 10
63 Poland 498 6 24
64 Albania 491 -5 -33
65 Austria 490 1 11
66 Gabon 482 -6 -35
67 Ecuador 474 0 -4
68 Morocco 472 -5 -22
69 Guinea 465 -1 -10
70 Armenia 456 0 -6
71 China PR 446 2 10
72 Cape Verde Islands 444 10 47
73 Malawi 436 -1 -3
74 Zambia 434 0 -1
75 Cyprus 427 5 29
76 Botswana 424 -5 -16
77 Uganda 411 -1 -6
78 Mali 408 -1 -8
79 El Salvador 404 -1 3
80 Latvia 401 3 13
81 Uzbekistan 399 2 11
82 Benin 394 4 14
82 Bolivia 394 -2 -4
84 Finland 390 -9 -29
84 Zimbabwe 390 2 10
86 Estonia 374 -7 -25
87 Niger 370 11 39
87 Saudi Arabia 370 5 17
89 Moldova 364 -4 -19
90 Qatar 355 0 -14
91 Angola 354 9 25
92 Sierra Leone 348 1 0
93 Jordan 346 -2 -15
94 New Zealand 345 0 0
94 Trinidad and Tobago 345 -6 -34
96 Syria 343 8 19
97 FYR Macedonia 340 -1 2
97 Kuwait 340 -2 1
99 Cuba 327 0 -3
99 Mozambique 327 4 0
101 Bahrain 324 -1 -5
102 Sudan 322 -5 -11
103 Canada 319 2 5
104 Central African Republic 316 -15 -54
105 Antigua and Barbuda 308 1 0
106 Oman 307 1 1
107 United Arab Emirates 297 2 -3
108 Iraq 288 0 -15
109 Gambia 287 -9 -42
110 Suriname 285 0 -11
111 Azerbaijan 283 0 1
112 Faroe Islands 273 0 0
113 Guatemala 261 2 1
114 Guyana 260 0 -9
115 Korea DPR 254 0 -6
116 Wales 251 -4 -22
117 Grenada 250 3 3
118 Liechtenstein 248 0 -5
119 Haiti 244 -2 -12
119 Thailand 244 0 -7
121 St. Kitts and Nevis 239 1 -4
122 Iceland 232 -1 -12
123 Togo 231 0 -7
124 Congo DR 230 -1 -8
125 Tanzania 228 2 -2
126 Liberia 221 -1 -11
127 Kazakhstan 216 -1 -15
128 Luxembourg 211 0 -2
129 Singapore 207 2 8
129 Vietnam 207 15 44
131 Congo 201 -2 -5
132 Indonesia 199 5 16
133 Dominican Republic 198 -1 0
133 Kenya 198 -3 -6
133 Yemen 198 2 10
136 Dominica 193 -3 0
137 Rwanda 192 -3 2
138 Nepal 191 -2 7
139 Bangladesh 181 8 33
140 Fiji 180 16 51
141 Turkmenistan 179 -3 3
142 Namibia 169 -2 1
143 Puerto Rico 167 -2 0
144 Ethiopia 166 -5 -4
145 Burundi 164 -2 0
146 Barbados 156 -1 0
147 Malaysia 155 -1 0
148 Belize 146 0 0
149 US Virgin Islands 144 0 0
150 Bahamas 141 2 0
151 Madagascar 140 -2 -4
152 Equatorial Guinea 139 3 8
153 Chad 131 5 4
153 Tajikistan 131 -11 -35
155 Guinea-Bissau 130 -4 -12
155 Hong Kong 130 -1 -3
157 Maldives 117 3 2
158 Lebanon 116 1 -3
159 Palestine 115 7 19
160 India 112 -7 -23
160 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 112 1 0
162 Mongolia 105 1 0
162 Philippines 105 0 -3
162 Vanuatu 105 7 12
165 New Caledonia 104 -1 0
166 Curacao 103 -9 -25
167 Myanmar 99 -2 0
168 Chinese Taipei 96 -2 0
169 Aruba 92 -1 -3
170 Pakistan 91 1 0
171 Cayman Islands 90 1 0
171 Swaziland 90 -2 -3
173 Solomon Islands 86 8 16
174 Sri Lanka 85 2 6
175 Cambodia 82 -1 1
176 Kyrgyzstan 79 3 7
177 Malta 77 -4 -6
178 Nicaragua 75 -1 0
179 Tahiti 74 3 17
180 Afghanistan 70 -1 -2
180 Laos 70 -3 -5
182 Comoros 63 -7 -17
183 St. Lucia 54 0 0
184 Seychelles 51 15 44
185 Lesotho 41 -1 -3
186 Bermuda 40 -1 0
187 British Virgin Islands 38 -1 0
188 Mauritius 33 7 23
189 Eritrea 29 -1 0
190 Mauritania 27 -3 -5
191 Samoa 26 -2 0
192 Macau 25 -2 0
193 Somalia 23 -2 0
194 Tonga 15 -2 0
195 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 -2 0
196 Djibouti 12 -2 0
197 Cook Islands 10 -2 0
197 Guam 10 -2 0
199 Brunei Darussalam 9 -1 0
200 Anguilla 7 -1 0
201 Bhutan 6 0 0
202 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Andorra 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0
 

36 comments:

  1. Can we really overtake Spain? Wow, that would be the first time ever on top... But how is it possible that the World and European Champions could be in that position, we didn't do that well in Euro 2008? Have they lost that many points in friendlies? Still, I do not see us beat England, let alone Spain losing points against Italy. But I'll keep my fingers crossed until Wednesday...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Montenegro...

    barring them topping the group over England, it looks like they could push into the seeds for the playoff draw.

    Who says it's a closed shop.

    ReplyDelete
  3. India (153) drew against UAE (109) in world cup qualifiers. They should get some points but ur post is showing 23 points of India will be deducted though drawing against such higher ranked nation. Why India's points will be deducted?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Why will Botswana lose 16 points after winning against Kenya???

    ReplyDelete
  5. And Spain will still be on top... tough luck for us Dutch! Ah well, I can understand the decision, but it's a pity. Let's hope for another shot at the top spot, maybe in Poland/Ukraine next summer...??

    ReplyDelete
  6. Spain will only remain on top if they win against Italy. If they draw (1581 pts) or loose (1563 pts) the Dutch will go on top in the rankings for the first time ever.

    So maybe it's a blessing in disguise this cancellation. As if the Dutch would have won that easily against a determined english side.

    ReplyDelete
  7. But don't we have to gain points as well? We probably loose points gained in matches that expire this month. Will we have enough points left to still challenge Spain for the top position? I agree that we wouldn't have won against England for sure, but to be completely honest: I don't think England is as good as everybody thinks as well. I don't think we would have a shot against Germany or Spain, but England has not convinced me for a long time. Anyway, it would've been an interesting match for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  8. The Dutch will gain 54 pts in comparison with the july-ranking, due to devaluation of bad results in 'august'-friendlies in earlier years: (draws against Ukraine (2010), England (2009) and Russia (2008) and the loss against Switzerland in 2007.

    They will have 1596 pts (without the cancelled friendly against England) in the coming august-ranking.

    Indeed, it would have been an interesting match against England, but certainly not a gimme.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Ok, thanks for the heads up! Still keeping my fingers crossed, but if we do claim top spot I rather would have done it by playing ourselves. Now let's see if Italy is up for it...

    ReplyDelete
  10. You're welcome.

    I totally agree, but these are the quirks of this ranking-system !

    ReplyDelete
  11. Can u plz answer India (153) drew against UAE (109) in world cup qualifiers. They should get some points but ur post is showing 23 points of India will be deducted though drawing against such higher ranked nation. Why India's points will be deducted?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Odd, with England not playing the Dutch, they'll now be certain to pass an idle Uruguay into 5th place(England 1177, Uruguay 1174) Also, if the Germans tie or beat Brazil, England will go into 4th! Brazil will have 1172 with a draw and 1156 with a loss.

    ReplyDelete
  13. @Abhishek

    Here's the detailed points calculation for India.

    column 1 cycle: 1 year time-frame
    column 2 pts: total points accumulated in the cycle
    column 3 MP: matches played in the cycle
    column 4 MP_rank: a minimum of 5 matches per cycle is applied
    column 5 avg_pts: average points per cycle (pts divided by MP_rank)
    column 6 weight: each cycle has a weight (last year count for 1, e.g. matches played more than 3 years ago count for 0.2)
    column 7 w_avg: weighted average (avg_pts * weight)
    Summation of the weighted averages over the 4 cycles gives the FIFA-ranking points.

    For the August-ranking:

    col 1 col 2 col 3 col 4 col 5 col 6 col 7 1 947.74 18 18 52.7 1 52.65
    2 306.00 3 5 61.2 0.5 30.60
    3 127.50 3 5 25.5 0.3 7.65
    4 1758.65 17 17 103.5 0.2 20.69
    IND 112

    For the July-ranking:

    col 1 col 2 col 3 col 4 col 5 col 6 col 7 1 754.36 17 17 44.4 1 44.37
    2 433.50 5 5 86.7 0.5 43.35
    3 552.50 6 6 92.1 0.3 27.63
    4 1461.15 15 15 97.4 0.2 19.48
    IND 135


    You can see that for the first cycle over the last 12 months India has scored better in August than in July (52.65 vs. 44.37). Here the draw with UAE certainly contributes. Unfortunately India scored a lot less averaged points (column 5) in the second and third cycle for the August ranking. So overall India loses 23 pts.

    Hope this answers your question.

    ReplyDelete
  14. hmmm, sorry Abhishek!

    This table looks much better in Excel.

    ReplyDelete
  15. A minimum of 5 matches per cycle is applied. What if their are less?

    ReplyDelete
  16. @La Selecta

    If a team plays less than 5 matches in a year/cycle than the earned points in that year are divided by 5 instead of the actual number of played matches.

    ReplyDelete
  17. @ Anonymous August 9, 2011 9:58 PM

    Oh well, that's something. I was wondering what effect that would have. Didn't think we'd pass Uruguay.

    ReplyDelete
  18. So we are now number 1?

    ReplyDelete
  19. If you mean by 'we' the Netherlands, than yes, in the august-ranking they will be number 1.

    But.... it will only be for one month, so enjoy it while you can.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Thx, but why only for one month?
    Can't they hold it?

    ReplyDelete
  21. Only if Spain loses against Liechtenstein next month (imagine that) and the Dutch win both matches against San Marino and Finland (not impossible) then the Netherlands will remain on top for another month.

    It will be a close contest for top spot in the coming months anyway, closer than before. Exciting !

    ReplyDelete
  22. But the hole media in Holland didnt report this.
    Is it a surprise, as it is made known? I dunno or they are so stupid..

    ReplyDelete
  23. 'If my calculations are correct,' El Salvador will be position 75...Am I right?

    ReplyDelete
  24. the dutch are everything but stupid. No one calls the dutch stupid but you Anonymous.
    But it's pretty stupid for the dutch not being aware of a number 1 spot!

    ReplyDelete
  25. @ Anonymous 11/8 11:07
    The nationale newspaper 'de Volkskrant' mentioned the figth for first place on tuesday before the message came the match against England was cancelled. After that I've read nothing about it anymore.

    I can imagine it is a bit complicated stuff for the average journalist to figure out how the ranking will become (as always, great work you're doing here on this site Edgar !). On the other hand I don't think they're stupid: football is the most important side-issue in the world, as we are used to saying. There are more serious things going on in the world at the moment than a first place in the FIFA-ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  26. @ La Selecta

    In my calculations too.

    ReplyDelete
  27. @Anonymous

    Yes, Spain lost many points in friendlies.

    @Anonymous

    Botswana lost points because of devaluation of results - see what matches you have played in August 2010 and July 2007.

    @La Selecta

    Yes, El Salvador will be 75th. See the final August preview.

    @Tobcoach

    It's you, isn't it? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hi Edgar,

    it is a bit confusing with all those 'Anonymous' writers, isn't it. I think I shall create my own profile in the near future.
    Btw, it's Ed.

    ReplyDelete
  29. OK Ed. Sorry for mistaking you for Tobcoach. Sure, creating your own profile would be much easier for me and others reading the comments.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I've send an email to the NOS yesterday, mentioning that the Dutch will be on 1st place in the August-ranking, based on my calculations and the calculations of Edgar.

    So far, no reaction on that email, and not a word in the media about it.

    And Edgar, the comment of Anonymous on August 12, 9:34 wasn't me...

    ReplyDelete
  31. I received an e-mail from a Voetbal International journalist about an hour ago - so maybe there will be something in the Dutch media.

    I also wrote to NOS on 10 Aug. No answer.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Oh, well, there's something the Dutch media alright.

    VI.nl

    Conveniently forgot to mention the source...

    ReplyDelete
  33. Not so fast Edgar,
    VI mentions your site as the source at the end of the article:
    Bron: Football-Rankings.info

    They even recited my comment about the september-ranking !

    Ed

    ReplyDelete
  34. Not so fast Ed - how about creating that profile? :)

    Did you see my tweets to VI_nl and fcarie?

    I also wrote them an e-mail and they've updated the article.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Al these new technologies! It's going too fast for me, that much is evident :)

    At least they awarded your request promptly and that's something, isn't it.

    Ed

    ReplyDelete