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Friday, September 23, 2011

FIFA Ranking: October 2011 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the October 2011 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

23/Sep Suriname - Curacao 1 (Friendly)
25/Sep Suriname - Curacao 1 (Friendly)
28/Sep Brazil - Argentina 1 (Friendly)
30/Sep Chinese Taipei - Macau 1 (Friendly)
30/Sep Hong Kong - Philippines 1 (Friendly)
02/Oct Chinese Taipei - Philippines X (Friendly)
02/Oct Hong Kong - Macau 1 (Friendly)
04/Oct Chinese Taipei - Hong Kong 2 (Friendly)
04/Oct Philippines - Macau 1 (Friendly)
04/Oct Ethiopia - Malawi X (Friendly)
06/Oct Thailand - Jordan X (Friendly)
07/Oct Congo DR - Cameroon 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Bulgaria - Ukraine X (Friendly)
07/Oct Belize - Grenada X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Japan - Vietnam 1 (Friendly)
07/Oct Korea Republic - Poland 1 (Friendly)
07/Oct Singapore - Philippines 1 (Friendly)
07/Oct China PR - United Arab Emirates 1 (Friendly)
07/Oct Indonesia - Saudi Arabia 2 (Friendly)
07/Oct Dominican Republic - El Salvador 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Guatemala 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Barbados - Guyana X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct US Virgin Islands - Haiti 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Ecuador - Venezuela 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Uruguay - Bolivia 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct St. Lucia - Canada 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Dominica - Panama 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Finland - Sweden 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Cayman Islands - Suriname 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Northern Ireland - Estonia X (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Wales - Switzerland 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Bosnia-Herzegovina - Luxembourg 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Armenia - FYR Macedonia X (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Latvia - Malta 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Bermuda - Trinidad and Tobago 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Puerto Rico - St. Kitts and Nevis X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Curacao - Antigua and Barbuda 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Costa Rica - Brazil 2 (Friendly)
07/Oct Australia - Malaysia 1 (Friendly)
07/Oct Argentina - Chile 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Slovakia - Russia 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Peru - Paraguay X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
07/Oct Netherlands - Moldova 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Belgium - Kazakhstan 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Serbia - Italy X (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Czech Republic - Spain 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Azerbaijan - Austria X (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Romania - Belarus 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct France - Albania 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Montenegro - England 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Portugal - Iceland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Turkey - Germany 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Andorra - Republic of Ireland 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Cyprus - Denmark 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Oct Greece - Croatia X (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Cape Verde Islands - Zimbabwe X (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Liberia - Mali 2 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Nigeria - Guinea 1 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Ethiopia - Madagascar 1 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Mozambique - Comoros 1 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Zambia - Libya 1 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Gambia - Burkina Faso X (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct South Africa - Sierra Leone 1 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Egypt - Niger 1 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Sudan - Ghana 2 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Swaziland - Congo X (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Guinea-Bissau - Angola 2 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Uganda - Kenya 1 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Tunisia - Togo 1 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct Chad - Malawi 2 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Oct USA - Honduras 1 (Friendly)
08/Oct Liechtenstein - Scotland 2 (Continental Qualifier)
09/Oct Morocco - Tanzania 1 (Continental Qualifier)
09/Oct Mauritius - Senegal 2 (Continental Qualifier)
09/Oct Côte d'Ivoire - Burundi 1 (Continental Qualifier)
09/Oct Benin - Rwanda 1 (Continental Qualifier)
09/Oct Algeria - Central African Republic 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Estonia - Ukraine 2 (Friendly)
11/Oct Mexico - Brazil X (Friendly)
11/Oct China PR - Iraq 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Ghana - Nigeria X (Friendly)
11/Oct Honduras - Jamaica X (Friendly)
11/Oct Philippines - Nepal 1 (Friendly)
11/Oct USA - Ecuador X (Friendly)
11/Oct Haiti - Curacao 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Bolivia - Colombia 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Korea DPR - Uzbekistan X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Trinidad and Tobago - Barbados 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Lebanon - Kuwait 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Suriname - Dominican Republic 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Thailand - Saudi Arabia X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Iran - Bahrain 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Republic of Ireland - Armenia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Germany - Belgium 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Malta - Israel 2 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Croatia - Latvia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Canada - Puerto Rico 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Antigua and Barbuda - US Virgin Islands 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Indonesia - Qatar 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct El Salvador - Cayman Islands 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Singapore - Jordan 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Australia - Oman 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct FYR Macedonia - Slovakia X (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Paraguay - Uruguay X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Chile - Peru 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Japan - Tajikistan 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Turkey - Azerbaijan 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Albania - Romania 2 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Hungary - Finland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Sweden - Netherlands 2 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Bermuda - Guyana X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Panama - Nicaragua 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct St. Kitts and Nevis - St. Lucia 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Guatemala - Belize 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Korea Republic - United Arab Emirates 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Switzerland - Montenegro 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Norway - Cyprus 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Denmark - Portugal X (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Venezuela - Argentina 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Oct Slovenia - Serbia X (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Italy - Northern Ireland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Spain - Scotland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct France - Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Moldova - San Marino 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Georgia - Greece 2 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Bulgaria - Wales 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Russia - Andorra 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Lithuania - Czech Republic 2 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Kazakhstan - Austria 2 (Continental Qualifier)

27 comments:

  1. Edgar, are you sure that you are using the correct coefficent for draws?

    Mexico - Brazil X
    Denmark - Portugal X
    FYR Macedonia - Slovakia X
    Azerbaijan - Austria X
    Northern Ireland - Estonia X
    Thailand - Saudi Arabia X
    USA - Ecuador X
    Armenia - FYR Macedonia X
    Paraguay - Uruguay X

    Otherwise elo rating sucks and you need to change your preffered ranking system

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  2. Yes Ashot, I'm sure.

    Elo is not perfect, but I know the system behind it and I can compute it while generating the results.

    I'd like to use the Voros ranking or the SPI ranking but the systems behind them are not public.

    Someday...

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  3. SPI?! Why SPI? You don't know how it's being calculated, so that can't be the reason...and it can't be that you like their results?? They seem...weird. Certainly not better than either FIFA or Elo?

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  4. And even stranger...

    Chile - Peru 1
    Switzerland - Montenegro 1
    Korea Republic - Poland 1
    Ecuador - Venezuela 1

    but Macedonia-Slovakia and Mexico-Brazil draws just killed me, i think that voros is just writing random numbers and sorting teams by his favor, SPI and FIFA are the best of all 4, while ELO is completely annoying:

    14 france
    19 south korea
    34 egypt
    46 china
    47 jamaica
    57 canada
    58 kuwait
    63 syria
    64 NEW ZEALAND
    65 SLOVAKIA
    67 jordan
    68 el salvador
    89 ARMENIA
    92 GEORGIA
    96 NORTHERN IRELAND
    114 northern cyprus

    poor bold teams...

    and also including ones like Northern Cyprus, French Guiana, Greenland and even Tibet, mid-80s site design, sorting by non-FIFA geographical regions, mid-80 country names (Eastern Samoa) and stolen ranking system proves their unprofessionalism, i hate ELO rankings, it seems that they published a bot in 80s that works until today. Besides SPI not publishing ranking system is even better than publishing them, as they can adjust curious results as seen with Egypt in pre-summer FIFA rankings, though SPI is not bad, "soccer" and "attack/defence rankings" are somewhat annoying. And at last i don't know if there are another important ranking systems besides these 4.

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  5. And Edgar it clearly seems that you want to use SPI but are afraid, sorry afraid of what? your boss? loss of your banners? prediction must be realistical, not based on any silly ranking and handled in a way you want, thats your site! i'll even say that you'd better use some famous betting site or even your own statistical predictions, you're doing a prediction, it is absurd that you'll use a ranking system for it! just do it as you want and if i was in your place i'll use predictions of a betting site, and take profit from sponsorship (but i think you'll not agree with the profit part, however).

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  6. Ashot: Are you Italian since you seem to rate NZ and Slovakia?

    Edgar is using the best free system (that is, who has announced their formula) there is. FIFA is 10 times more annoying than ELO; consider the case of Wales, who are either 117th or 90th depending on which month you rank them in. Complete bollocks. Or Norway who got first seeds in World Cup qualifying despite failing to qualify in 10 years. The same applies to China.

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  7. @ Ashot

    Most of those look good for draws to me. Different results, I'd say if Mexico are in the Azteca they'll win, The improved Thailand will be favourites against the atrocious Saudi Arabia and Armenia should beat Macedonia.

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  8. @ Ashot

    That second set, what's wrong with them? I'd predict those results for all 4 matches. Unless Montenegro somehow beat England, then they'd have something to play for and the Swiss wouldn't.

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  9. Chance de Gol Worldwide Nations Ranking: http://chancedegol.uol.com.br/rksel.htm
    Ziaian World Football Ranking: http://www.rankfootball.com/

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  10. @Håkon

    Norway was seeded because they had pretty impressive results - a string of victories (Portugal, France, Czechia, Slovakia, Ireland) and topped their qualifying group - who would you give their place to? In case of Norway, FIFA can only be blamed that their rankings are too "current".

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  11. I know the Mexico-Brazil game is based on ELO, but even ignoring that, Mexico-Brazil games are not as one-sided as you might think. Check since 2000.

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  12. @ MV

    Norway doesn't bother me. I always thought they got screwed by the stupid system for WCQ, getting booted as the worst runner up.

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  13. @Ashot
    http://duffireland.beepworld.de/aggr_ranking_1_9_11.htm

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  14. @MV

    The Czechia result was after the seeding. We (I am Norwegian) also lost to Ukraine (pot 3) and Poland (pot 4) in that time. If friendlies count, France should clearly have been seeded ahead of Norway (wins over England, Brazil, Ukraine, Poland).

    I would have used the UEFA ranking. I'm not entirely sure what it would have given as top seeds, but suspect Russia and France would have replaced Norway and Greece. Which only the Irish could sincerely have complained about.

    I would have followed the UEFA ranking

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  15. Yes, France was even more impressive in the friendlies, but I've mentioned their impressive qualifying. So France goes in (I had hoped for that to happen, so Croatia would avoid them), but instead of Greece, not Norway - Norway wasn't the lowest of the seeded teams. ;)

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  16. And if the UEFA rankings were used: no Norway, but no France either - Sweden and Russia would probably be the seeds.

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  17. Sweden and Russia would probably be the seeds.
    ---
    Thanks. Makes some sense.

    I agree it would be weird to not count the 2011 results at all (which is the UEFA alternative) but then we could have done the draw in December and used the same ranking as will be used for the Euro play-off seeding. Which would also have accounted for Norway's horror show in Copenhagen and put us in pot B (by FIFA) or pot C (by UEFA). But nooo, FIFA have to control it all themselves... *rolleyes*

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  18. Well the alternative ranking systems are even more annoying, Sweden at 8th position, erhm... not at this planet

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  19. @ Ashot

    Well, I already said I thought Armenia would win. But what's wrong with the rest of the predictions?

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  20. @Lorric though Armenia had 2 crushing victories against Slovakia, Slovaks are still much stronger and would definetely win against Macedonia as they need it as oxygen, Azerbaijan must clearly lose to Austrians, US win Ecuador and N. Ireland must defeat Estonia (despite not being able to defeat Faroes) and Chile - Peru 1, Switzerland - Montenegro 1, Korea Republic - Poland 1 are reverse results of what would be in real life.

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  21. You might be right about the Slovaks' need to win being the key. Azerbaijan beat Turkey and tied Belgium at home. Two better teams. They can tie Austria. US have been bad lately. But they're probably still favourites, but not enough to dispute a draw. I thought you'd think Estonia would win since they beat NI 4-1. I was thinking draw because NI are strong at home! But all the 1 teams are better and at home. I don't see how you think the away teams would win.

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  22. I did a little math of my own. When I put Edgars predicted results into the qualifying tables, I come up with this results:

    Qualified: Germany, Russia, Italy, France, Netherlands, Croatia, England, Portugal, Spain

    Nrs. 2: Turkey, Rep. of Ireland, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden, Greece, Switzerland, Denmark, Czech Rep.

    Best number 2 will be Denmark, so they will qualify automatically.

    Leaves us with the seeded teams for the play-offs: Greece, Sweden, Switzerland and Serbia

    Unseeded: Rep. of Ireland, Czech Rep. Turkey and Bosnia-Herzegovina

    I can see some very interesting clashes coming up: Greece vs. Turkey, Bosnia vs. Serbia....

    And taking it alle the way through to the pots for the group stage, when the seeded teams should survive the play-offs:

    Pot 1: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands,
    Pot 2: Germany, England, Italy, Croatia
    Pot 3: Russia, Portugal, Greece, France
    Pot 4: Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Serbia

    From that point onwards it's anyones guess, I think. Multiple chances of a 'group of death' and als varous chances of making it to a lighter group with one of the host countries.

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  23. @ Tobcoach

    Dream: Poland, England, Greece, Denmark

    Nightmare: Spain, England, France, Sweden

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  24. For some reason Edgar missed Poland vs Belarus friendly on 11-Oct. I thought it wasn't on fifa.com (at was only confirmed last week or so) but it's there already.

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  25. Everyone of us can make predictions how matches will end.
    The value of Edgar's predictions come from using some solid method to which everyone can refer and check the calculations.

    However, all rankings - good or bad - are past looking analysis. And as they say with all stock market recommendations "past performance does not guarantee future outcome". Thus I would encourage Edgar to consider some future looking data for the basis of his calculation. And I believe that market prices are the best forecast what will happen. (I am a trader as you may see. :) Thus maybe someone could do analysis what would these predictions be if they would be based on odds from some major betting company. (And, wink wink, I guess any betting company would be happy to sponsor your site if you use their odds.)

    Also another idea to consider. Now this forecast is based on deterministic forecast on individual matches. (I.e. the forecast is calculated on assumption that, say, Sweden wins Finland.)

    What if this analysis would rather be based on stochastic expected outcome? Say, for Finland-Sweden, we would assign probabilities for each outcome (yet again those odds!) and calculate expected number of points. In that case expected points would probably be something like Finland 0.9, Sweden 2.1.

    So instead of calculating expected ranking based on three points to Sweden and none to Finland we would calculate ranking according these expected values.

    I guess it would make the forecast more accurate if we ex-post compare the average difference between predicted and actual rankings.

    However, on the other hand it would probably make the forecast more difficult to explain to an average person.

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  26. @Tiksa ... i've already written your enormous post just in 2 sentences some days ago, your actions aren't even trolling.

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  27. @MV I'd like to use Voros or SPI since they have offense/defense and I could generate scores. That would come in handy for the UEFA NT coefficient.

    @Ashot Please try to be polite. I don't have a boss - I'm the only person involved in this blog. The banners you see on my blog are displayed for free. I did receive plenty of offers from betting sites to display their banners, but I refused since I think betting because this would go against my Christian faith. That's why I don't use betting odds or whatever.

    @Tobcoach Thanks!

    @Anonymous (regarding Poland vs. Belarus) That match wasn't on FIFA.com last Friday morning.

    @Tiska I try to keep the ranking info as simple as I can and as you said - it would be too difficult to explain to an average person. Regarding betting companies, see my answer to Ashot and this post. It was written to stop the flood of e-mails from betting companies looking to advertise on my blog.

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