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Friday, November 18, 2011

FIFA Ranking: November 2011 final preview

Fixed Zimbabwe error. Thanks Tobcoach!

______

FIFA will publish the ranking on November 23.

Croatia return to the top 10 (climbing to 8th), with Greece and Denmark dropping out, while England overtake Brazil.

Sao Tome e Principe return to the ranking in style - they will be 192nd - bad news for Mauritania, Tonga, Timor-Leste, Andorra, Samoa and San Marino - all will thus drop to their worst ever ranking.

Egypt drop from 2nd to 4th in Africa, Ghana up to 2nd, Algeria to 3rd. Nigeria replace Senegal as 5th in Africa.

Italy out of the European top 5, replaced by Portugal.

Best movers:

35 - Lebanon
31 - Puerto Rico
29 - Haiti

Worst movers:

-21 - Dominica
-18 - Suriname and Thailand
-14 - New Zealand


Best movers in the top 50:

14 - Czech Republic
10 - Ecuador
5 - Algeria

Worst movers in the top 50:

-12 - Montenegro
-6 - Greece and Colombia
-5 - Wales

Three teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Venezuela (39th - 40th in July 2011)
Cape Verde Islands (57th - 66th in October 2011)
Antigua and Barbuda (82nd - 90th in October 2011)

Estonia will return to their best ever ranking - 58th - first achieved in September 2011.

14 teams will drop to their worst ever ranking:

Bulgaria (85th - 75th in October 2011)
Finland (88th - 87th in November 2010)
Cyprus (125th - 120th in October 2011)
Singapore (152nd - 145th in April 2011)
Barbados (161st - 152nd in July 2006)
Hong Kong (168th - 156th in November 2008)
Swaziland (179th - 175th in October 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (188th - 186th in October 2011)
Mauritania (201st - 200th in October 2011)
Tonga (202nd - 201st in September 2011)
Timor-Leste (203rd - 202nd in February 2008)
Andorra (204th - 203rd in June 2011)
Samoa (204th - 203rd in September 2011)
San Marino (204th - 203rd in July 2009)

November 2011 rank - Team - November 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1564 0 -60
2 Netherlands 1365 0 -60
3 Germany 1345 0 -7
4 Uruguay 1309 0 79
5 England 1173 2 72
6 Brazil 1143 -1 -1
7 Portugal 1100 1 56
8 Croatia 1091 4 76
9 Italy 1082 -3 -53
10 Argentina 1068 0 38
11 Denmark 1035 -1 5
12 Russia 971 1 -4
13 Chile 970 3 29
14 Greece 964 -6 -80
15 France 915 0 -38
16 Côte d'Ivoire 911 3 13
17 Switzerland 898 1 -22
18 Sweden 891 -4 -64
19 Japan 884 -2 -40
20 Mexico 867 2 7
21 Republic of Ireland 864 4 52
22 Australia 851 -2 -17
23 Bosnia-Herzegovina 838 -2 -26
24 Paraguay 795 4 10
25 Norway 788 -1 -50
26 Slovenia 780 1 -7
27 Serbia 775 -4 -79
28 Turkey 769 -2 -34
29 Ghana 761 4 27
30 Algeria 758 5 45
31 Egypt 757 -2 -18
32 Korea Republic 752 -1 -2
33 Czech Republic 749 14 149
34 USA 721 0 1
35 Peru 712 -3 -34
36 Colombia 709 -6 -48
37 Hungary 665 -1 -36
37 Israel 665 1 -4
39 Venezuela 661 1 29
40 Slovakia 648 1 19
41 Belgium 647 -4 -23
42 Ecuador 630 10 50
43 Nigeria 628 1 3
44 Senegal 625 -2 -1
45 Iran 616 -3 -10
46 Armenia 612 0 4
47 Jamaica 609 3 17
48 Cameroon 602 -1 2
49 Scotland 599 2 18
50 Wales 591 -5 -28
51 Montenegro 586 -12 -69
51 Panama 586 2 7
53 South Africa 577 -4 -18
54 Honduras 570 3 15
55 Ukraine 568 3 17
56 Romania 562 -1 -13
57 Cape Verde Islands 544 9 44
58 Estonia 543 1 1
59 Tunisia 537 1 -4
60 Morocco 524 -4 -42
61 Sierra Leone 521 2 2
62 Burkina Faso 518 -8 -60
63 Libya 514 2 10
64 Costa Rica 502 -2 -20
65 Belarus 501 -4 -28
66 Poland 487 -2 -19
67 Mali 472 1 -1
68 Latvia 466 7 19
69 El Salvador 463 13 37
70 Zimbabwe 462 4 14
71 Austria 459 1 1
72 Canada 455 11 30
72 China PR 455 -2 -8
74 Georgia 451 -7 -24
75 Albania 450 -4 -12
75 Uzbekistan 450 -2 -2
77 Gabon 445 -9 -28
78 Haiti 438 29 131
79 Zambia 436 1 4
80 Guinea 435 -5 -12
81 Iraq 429 10 50
82 Antigua and Barbuda 418 8 37
82 Jordan 418 -1 -10
84 Angola 412 2 8
85 Bulgaria 409 -10 -38
85 Trinidad and Tobago 409 -6 -24
87 Malawi 407 0 7
88 Finland 406 -10 -32
89 Northern Ireland 403 -5 -18
90 Guatemala 397 9 57
91 Uganda 394 -3 1
92 Cuba 390 8 58
93 Oman 387 10 70
94 Lithuania 382 -9 -34
95 Qatar 375 -3 4
96 Botswana 371 -7 -15
97 Guyana 370 0 24
98 Saudi Arabia 362 0 21
99 Niger 361 -4 9
100 Kuwait 350 -4 0
100 Togo 350 -6 -9
102 Bahrain 340 -1 16
103 FYR Macedonia 333 -10 -28
104 Iceland 325 4 25
105 Mozambique 324 5 43
106 Bolivia 309 9 36
106 Puerto Rico 309 31 110
108 Grenada 308 8 38
109 Bermuda 307 23 82
110 Korea DPR 305 14 51
111 Lebanon 304 35 133
111 Sudan 304 -9 -19
113 Azerbaijan 300 4 35
114 Rwanda 298 -2 21
115 Syria 292 -9 -17
116 Faroe Islands 285 6 28
117 St. Kitts and Nevis 284 -8 -5
118 Gambia 280 -7 0
119 New Zealand 271 -14 -39
120 Namibia 264 7 16
120 United Arab Emirates 264 -7 -12
122 Suriname 261 -18 -52
123 Liberia 258 -2 0
124 Benin 257 -5 -3
125 Congo DR 253 8 30
125 Cyprus 253 -5 -6
127 Luxembourg 252 -9 -11
128 Central African Republic 251 -3 0
129 Dominican Republic 247 -1 2
130 Liechtenstein 246 -4 -3
131 Congo 245 7 58
132 Thailand 243 -18 -32
133 Kenya 240 2 35
134 Vietnam 234 0 12
135 Moldova 229 -12 -26
136 Tanzania 228 -5 -3
137 Ethiopia 225 -1 24
138 Kazakhstan 219 -9 -16
139 Tajikistan 207 -9 -25
140 Belize 194 3 17
141 Chad 188 11 37
142 Bangladesh 181 -1 -2
143 Indonesia 177 -3 -7
143 Nepal 177 1 1
145 Burundi 174 -4 -9
146 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 170 0 -1
147 Turkmenistan 164 -2 -8
148 Lesotho 160 14 46
149 Curacao 154 22 55
150 Yemen 153 -1 -5
151 Equatorial Guinea 148 4 8
152 Singapore 146 -13 -39
153 Bahamas 141 1 0
153 Nicaragua 141 7 26
155 Malaysia 140 -4 -15
156 Malta 139 2 12
157 Madagascar 135 8 24
158 Fiji 133 -9 -25
159 Philippines 130 -1 3
160 Guinea-Bissau 129 7 23
161 Barbados 125 -13 -39
162 India 119 -2 4
163 New Caledonia 116 -7 -12
164 Palestine 113 0 1
165 Chinese Taipei 109 1 1
166 Maldives 106 -4 -8
166 Mongolia 106 1 0
168 Hong Kong 105 -12 -23
169 Cambodia 103 7 18
169 Myanmar 103 1 2
171 Vanuatu 96 3 8
172 Aruba 92 0 0
173 Dominica 90 -21 -61
174 Pakistan 87 -1 -4
175 Laos 86 6 12
176 Sri Lanka 85 1 2
177 US Virgin Islands 82 -8 -22
178 Afghanistan 77 6 8
179 Solomon Islands 75 1 0
179 Swaziland 75 -4 -12
181 Cayman Islands 74 4 23
182 Tahiti 73 0 0
183 Seychelles 69 -5 -13
184 Eritrea 65 6 37
184 St. Lucia 65 -5 -13
186 Comoros 55 -3 -17
187 Somalia 51 5 28
188 Kyrgyzstan 42 -2 -7
189 Guam 36 -2 0
190 Papua New Guinea 34 -2 0
191 Mauritius 32 -2 0
192 Sao Tome e Principe 27 16 27
193 Macau 26 -2 1
194 British Virgin Islands 23 -2 0
195 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 -1 0
196 Cook Islands 10 0 0
197 Anguilla 9 0 0
198 Bhutan 6 1 0
198 Brunei Darussalam 6 -1 -3
200 Djibouti 5 -5 -7
201 Mauritania 4 -1 0
202 Tonga 3 -1 0
203 Timor-Leste 2 -2 -1
204 American Samoa 0 -1 0
204 Andorra 0 -1 0
204 Montserrat 0 -1 0
204 Samoa 0 -1 0
204 San Marino 0 -1 0

44 comments:

  1. With all due respect Edgar, but I think there are a few flaws in your prediction (I almost not dare to say it out loud...). For instance Korea Republic. You have 752 points, while the FIFA-website (and me too) calculate the points of Korea Rep. on 735.

    Looking at the timeframes, Korea Republic has:
    year 1: 60.38 points
    year 2: 91.21 point
    year 3: 165.82 points
    year 4: 417.88 points

    Makes a total of 735.29 points.

    Could you explain where the extra 17 points come from?

    Again, I'm not being nasty, I simply see a difference between your ranking and the FIFA-ranking and trying to understand where the difference comes from.

    ReplyDelete
  2. No problem.

    Korea Republic - Poland no longer an A match. Look it up yourself.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Edgar,

    I have another comment regarding this ranking. Cameroon have refused to play against Algeria a friendly game planned for November 15. I don't how Fifa sees this: a cancelled game or 3-0 victory for Algeria.

    According the total points, ALgeria got a win, but I don't how Fifa evaluates this as it is not an official game.

    ReplyDelete
  4. That's a bit funny actually (in a nerdy sort of way) :)

    For a win against Cameroon, Algeria would have received 394.74 points, very close to the average of the last time frame (including the Tunisia game): 392.16.

    That's why you thought the Cameroon match is included as a win for Algeria, but it's not included since it's no longer on FIFA.com.

    ReplyDelete
  5. @Edgar, thanks, missed that. Same applies to the Ethiopia-Sudan game in oktober 2011, I assume?

    Only country I have a difference with you now is Zimbabwe. No games taken off the A-list, still 14 points difference betwee yours and mine.

    For Zimbabwe, I have:
    year 1: 35.62 pts.
    year 2: 28.18 pts.
    year 3: 56.25 pts.
    year 4: 341.64 pts.

    Makes a total for me of 461.69 points, thus 462. You have 448 points. Why?

    ReplyDelete
  6. @Tobcoach

    That was indeed an error caused by Sao Tome e Principe :D

    Thanks, fixed now.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hey when u last posted on nov 11th india were no.159 bt india played against on nov13th and 16 th wer they drawn one and won another..HOW COME THEY DROPPED 3 PLACES

    ReplyDelete
  8. Because I had India with two wins against Malaysia, based on the Elo ratings results.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Bro i am nt understanding it bt cn u pls tell me hw cn a team get negative points wen they win..PLS CN U EXPLAIN

    ReplyDelete
  10. I must be getting old - it took me a couple of seconds to really understand what you wrote :)

    Devaluation of results or playing a game that brings less than the average of the last time frame.

    More in the detailed totals section.

    ReplyDelete
  11. HEY BRO GT IT..SO U KEPT THAT POINTS ASSUMING IF INDIA WINS BOTH MATCHES.CN U PLS TELL ME HW MANY PLACES MIGHT INDIA GAIN IF THEY DRAW OR WIN AGAINST ZAMBIA WHEN WE TAKE ON THEM LATER THIS MONTH AND DO WE GET ANY POINTS FOR SAFF CUP

    ReplyDelete
  12. 312.18 for a win, 104.06 for a draw, 0 for a loss - obviously individual match points.

    Yes, you will get points for the SAFF cup since those games are already on FIFA.com.

    Can you get rid of the caps?

    ReplyDelete
  13. yup bro thanx for the pts bt in terms of rankings hw places we r likely to gain in both cases..jst approximate pls..

    ReplyDelete
  14. That's for next week - I will post the December ranking preview next Friday. You'll have to wait.

    ReplyDelete
  15. How did Wales drop 5 places after thrashing Norway (ranked 24th)?

    What results could that have replaced that would have brought us more points?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Believe it or not, but it is primarily the devaluating points for the win over Scotland in november 2009 that causes this drop for Wales.
    The 462 match-points for this win going from the second time-frame into the lower-weighted third, cost Wales some 30 FIFA-points.
    The friendly win over Norway doesn't do much in terms of lifting the already high first time-frame average, so that's why Wales drops in FIFA-points and thus some places in the ranking. No opponent in a friendly could have prevented this, because you know a friendly can deliver a maximum of 600 match-points.

    That's the way the FIFA-ranking works !

    ReplyDelete
  17. @ Anonymous

    0-0 vs Germany drops off
    1-0 win over Denmark devalues
    3-0 win over Scotland devalues

    ReplyDelete
  18. oh no... I was actually so sure that my data-collection is finally correct, but when I just calculated the future ranking points for November, then I still had nearly 30 countries, which differ from your preview…:((

    …although it’s almost always only a difference of 1 point, so I guess my mistake could also be caused by the wrong rounding method…?

    so here are some examples of point differences, and maybe anybody can tell me where I got wrong:

    Team Points -> Rounded
    Côte d'Ivoire 911,877 -> 912
    Poland 478,285 -> 478
    Jordan 418,977 -> 419
    Bulgaria 409,781 -> 410
    Saudi Arabia 361,22 -> 361
    Korea DPR 305,975 -> 306
    Rwanda 297,282 -> 297
    Syria 292,819 -> 293
    Indonesia 176,298 -> 176
    St. Vincent / Grenadines 170,9 -> 171
    Malta 139,71 -> 140

    ReplyDelete
  19. Okay, so I figured out the difference for VIN now… :)

    …but nevertheless maybe anybody could help me with my general rounding problem, cause there are still 25 countries left with a difference of 1 point…

    PS:
    cause I guess Poland was just a typing mistake, and you also meant 178 instead of 187?

    ReplyDelete
  20. @EngelRS4

    I don't see that much mistakes in your example results. Only with regards to VIN and POL my calculations differ from yours. VIN you solved yourself and for Poland see Edgar's answer to Tobcoaches comments in the beginning of this thread.

    Could it be that Edgar's previewed points-totals..... I dare not finish this sentence :D

    ReplyDelete
  21. @EngelRS4

    I don't see that much mistakes in your example results. My calculations only differ for VIN and POL. Vin you solved yourself and regarding Poland that's no typo: see Edgar's answer at the beginning of this thread to a comment from Tobcoach.

    Could it be that Edgar's previewed points-totals..... I dare not finish this sentence :D

    ReplyDelete
  22. @Ed
    Thanks a lot for your help! (I had overread that not only Korea, but also Poland was involved...)

    Well, okay so if I take out the match POL-KOR from 7.10., then I’ll also get 487 points for Poland (486,526)…

    but the points for KOR still differ, as I calculated 752,492 -> rounded=752…?

    Could you maybe also help me with this…:)

    ReplyDelete
  23. Wow, I'm honoured, I'm being mentioned in the first sentence of this blog. Thanks Edgar!!

    @EngelRS4: the unroundend and rounded totals of your examples (apaert from POL and VIN, but you explained that already)are exactly the same as mine and apparently also the same as Ed's. So there are two options here: either we are doing something wrong, or the program Edgar uses to generate the points and to calculate the possible difference in points between his ranking and the official ranking, is getting it not entirely wright.

    I'm guessing it's the first option though...
    Just a few more days, and we'll know the answer.

    ReplyDelete
  24. @EngelRS4

    I will be glad to help, but.... there's nothing wrong with your calculated result for Korea Republic. Edgar (and I also) comes to the same rounded total of 752 pts if you disregard the KOR-POL friendly.
    What difference are you refering to ?

    ReplyDelete
  25. @Ed
    Ah sorry, you are right, I thought it would be 754 (probably mixed it up with the last ranking…)

    Well, and then I like to add some words to protect Edgar, because you should consider that he is collecting this data since 4 years now, and until 6 weeks ago it was not possible to check the points after comma…

    ..and after I first finished my collection, I also had the correct totals for all countries… but when FIFA published the detailed points of the past 4 years, then I found out that about 40 countries were wrong after the comma… well, and it really took me quite some time (and nerves;) to figure out for each month, which matches were included…
    and I guess Edgar just didn’t found the time for this yet…

    ReplyDelete
  26. Ha ha, I don't think Edgar needs protection from my sensitively put 'allegations'...

    I am fully aware of all the effort Edgar puts in this blog and I for one appreciate this enormously. It is a great source of football-statistics and..... fun to read !

    By the way, until FIFA published the year-averages per time-frame I was also reluctant to show the results of my calculations as I wasn't at all sure of it.
    And now I'm gonna attack Edgar over a difference of a point more or less? Don't think so.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hi Edjar &guys:I'd like to get the points of all Jordan matches for the past 4 years(match by match),can I?

    ReplyDelete
  28. also,There was friendly match between Iraq&Lebanon (1/0 Iraq)on 7/8 Nov, but it was not in fifa calaculation, even in you calculation?!

    ReplyDelete
  29. @ Tobcoach: sorry, I had overread the last part of your posting, which was addressed to me…

    well, and after I read that Edgar is using a “program” to calculate the points (which means that the process is kind of automized), then I got an idea what could be the problem, because I guess the program can’t handle matches, which were played at the same date, but being included in different ranking lists (because that’s also what caused the errors after comma in my data…)

    ReplyDelete
  30. Strange ! In the november-ranking published this morning there are 4 countries with an error in the calculation of the match-points in one of their matches played last month:
    Argentina (2:1 win vs. Colombia) gained according to FIFA 1267.5 pts. It should be 1275 pts.
    Lebanon (2:1 win vs Korea Republic) gained according to FIFA 1102.95 pts. It should be 1090.05 pts.
    Somalia (0:0 draw vs Ethiopia) gained according to FIFA 139.75 pts. It should be 137.6 pts.
    Venezuela (1:1 draw vs Colombia) gained according to FIFA 422.5 pts. It should be 425 pts.

    Doesn't make a lot of difference in the ranking (only Lebanon gets an extra FIFA-point), but I think it's very strange that a calculation with a computer, I assume, gives this kind of errors.

    ReplyDelete
  31. I noticed it too, Ed. I guess the only reason FIFA did this was because of a (not yet published) change in the October ranking, where Korea Republic would be 29th instead of 31st, Colombia 31st instead of 30th and Ethiopia 135th instead of 136th. Problem with Colombia and Korea Republic is Egypt. In the current October ranking, Egypt was 29th, Colombia 30th and Korea Rep. 31st. In order to get Korea to 29th, Egypt would drop to 30th (unless they would be tied for 29th).

    Egypt played Brazil for the November rankings, Brazil won and got 477,09 points, which corresponds with a 29th place for Egypt. So my only guess is it would be a tie for 29th between Egypt and Korea Rep.

    And as for Ethiopia: their one place gain would be at the cost of Kenya. But that doesn't matter much, because Kenya won both their matches for the November ranking, so their opponents didn't gain or lose points.

    It's strange, and not very transparent of FIFA.

    ReplyDelete
  32. @Tobcoach,

    But did you also notice that the T-factor in the calculations for the match-points in these 4 matches was correctly set according to the published positions in the oktober-ranking. Also the other components were correctly set.

    So the components of the calculation were correct, just the multiplication of the components lead to an incorrect result. I call that not very bright instead of transparent !

    ReplyDelete
  33. btw. there are two other things I noticed (although they shouldn't cause any significant differences):

    ...but if you click on Maldives or Seychelles, then the points shown in the ranking list (at left) are different from the points shown in the overview of the country (at right on top)...

    so for Seychelles it shows 69 points in the list, and 82 in the overview
    (which is probably caused by not including the 2 matches against Kenya at 11.+15.11.2011 in the "Points Last Month")

    and for Maldives it shows 106 points in the list and 114 in the overview
    (which is probably caused by not excluding the match against Yemen at 28.10.2007 from the "Points Outside Ranking Calculation")

    ReplyDelete
  34. PS:
    I've just seen that these two countries (SEY+MDV) have played a match yesterday, so maybe the difference could've been caused by this...

    ReplyDelete
  35. @Ed:
    if you look at the ranking of the country pages, then the points showed at "Latest points scored" are correct...

    ReplyDelete
  36. @Anonymous Nov 24 3:34 AM. No, they're not. The points on the country pages are the same as the points shown on the ranking list. And those points are not correct.

    Do the math yourself for Argentina: 3 x 2,5 x 170 = 1275 and not 1267.5

    ReplyDelete
  37. @Tobcoach
    yes that’s also the way I see it:
    FIFA calculated the points with including the changes to October ranking, which were caused by removing the points for the 2 removed matches:
    KOR - POL and ETH - SUD…

    … because this causes the following changes:

    COL from 30 to 31
    -> makes for ARG: 3 * 2,5 * 169 * 1 = 1267,5
    -> makes for VEN: 1 * 2,5 * 169 * 1 = 422,5

    KOR from 31 to 29 (same points and rank as EGY)
    -> makes for LIB: 3 * 2,5 * 171 * 0,86 = 1102,95

    ETH from 136 to 135
    -> makes for SOM: 1 * 2,5 * 65 * 0,86 = 139,75

    KEN from 135 to 136
    -> makes no difference as SEY got 0 points

    ReplyDelete
  38. PS:
    ranking including removed matches:
    Country - Points - Rank
    EGY - 775,15 - 29
    COL - 757,02 - 30
    KOR - 754,02 - 31

    ranking excluding removed matches:
    Country - Points - Rank
    EGY - 775,15 - 29
    KOR - 774,65 - 29
    COL - 754,02 - 31

    ReplyDelete
  39. sorry, removed typo:)
    ranking excluding removed matches:
    Country - Points - Rank
    EGY - 775,15 - 29
    KOR - 774,65 - 29
    COL - **757,02** - 31

    ReplyDelete
  40. @EngelRS4.....What means removed? are there some matches can be removed after playing as International game?

    ReplyDelete
  41. @ED...my bro, can I have detailed match points for Jordan for four years,per match? and what needs to jump before next AFC world cup qualifications Draw in March,2012?

    ReplyDelete
  42. well, I also haven't known this before...
    but you can read in the comments of this thread "Another small bug in the interactive ranking" (1st of this month), that it seems to happen from time to time...
    (unfortunately my question, where such info can be found, was not answered...)

    ReplyDelete
  43. @Anonymous (Jordan)

    Send me an e-mail (see my profile) and I will send you the detailed points for Jordan.

    @Anonymous (Iraq)

    Most likely one of the teams made more than the allowed 6 substitutions.

    @EngelRS4

    Ed answered your question. That's what I do to - a monthly check of results.

    And to everyone - no need to bother about my feelings - I'm quite OK, although I do appreciate it :)

    ReplyDelete