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Friday, April 29, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (29 April 2011)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumptions:

  • Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
  • The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (29 April 2011)

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (29 April 2011)

Nine teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).

Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England and Italy in Pot 1.
Denmark and Serbia in Pot 2.
Andorra and Kazakhstan in Pot 6.

Cyprus appear 100% in Pot 5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Greece have scheduled a friendly against Ecuador in the USA. This affects their chances for Pot 1 - falling from 98.97% to 74.08%. Three Pot 1 candidates gain more than 2%:

Norway from 63.25% to 76.52%
Portugal from 78.85% to 84.43%
France from 5.26% to 9.01%

This means I'll have to update the first pot scenarios, time allowing...

Poland's friendly against the Czech Republic was canceled, with the Czechs opting to participate in the Kirin Cup with Japan and Peru. Poland's Pot 4 chances drop by 16.8% with Armenia improving theirs by 10.32%. Poland return to Pot 5 and Armenia to Pot 4 (see below).

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (29 April 2011)

Pot 1

100.00% - Spain
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Germany
100.00% - England
100.00% - Italy
95.61% - Croatia
84.43% - Portugal
76.52% - Norway
74.08% - Greece
47.24% - Montenegro
13.11% - Russia
9.01% - France

Pot 2

100.00% - Denmark
100.00% - Serbia
98.24% - Slovenia
95.82% - Sweden
92.87% - Slovakia
90.99% - France
86.89% - Russia
72.77% - Turkey
52.76% - Montenegro
25.92% - Greece
23.61% - Belgium
23.48% - Norway
15.57% - Portugal
14.27% - Switzerland
4.39% - Croatia
2.14% - Israel
0.22% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.03% - Republic of Ireland
0.03% - Czech Republic

Pot 3

99.95% - Czech Republic
99.78% - Republic of Ireland
97.86% - Israel
97.50% - Ukraine
85.73% - Switzerland
76.64% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
76.38% - Belgium
70.37% - Hungary
70.30% - Belarus
32.78% - Bulgaria
27.23% - Turkey
25.54% - Albania
9.01% - Romania
7.48% - Lithuania
7.13% - Slovakia
4.18% - Sweden
3.75% - Georgia
3.46% - Armenia
3.09% - Austria
1.76% - Slovenia
0.04% - Latvia
0.02% - Scotland
0.01% - Northern Ireland
0.01% - Finland

Pot 4

99.24% - Northern Ireland
98.76% - Scotland
96.24% - Georgia
92.51% - Lithuania
89.47% - Romania
74.46% - Albania
67.22% - Bulgaria
50.85% - Austria
50.67% - Armenia
31.15% - Latvia
29.81% - Poland
29.70% - Belarus
29.63% - Hungary
23.14% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
12.26% - Finland
9.15% - Moldova
8.63% - Estonia
3.05% - FYR Macedonia
2.50% - Ukraine
1.33% - Azerbaijan
0.19% - Republic of Ireland
0.02% - Czech Republic
0.01% - Belgium
0.01% - Faroe Islands

Pot 5

100.00% - Cyprus
96.85% - FYR Macedonia
93.83% - Azerbaijan
91.37% - Estonia
90.85% - Moldova
87.73% - Finland
70.19% - Poland
68.81% - Latvia
56.63% - Iceland
46.06% - Austria
45.87% - Armenia
31.64% - Wales
11.40% - Faroe Islands
3.17% - Luxembourg
1.71% - Liechtenstein
1.52% - Romania
1.22% - Scotland
0.75% - Northern Ireland
0.37% - Malta
0.01% - Lithuania
0.01% - Georgia
0.01% - San Marino

Pot 6

100.00% - Kazakhstan
100.00% - Andorra
99.99% - San Marino
99.63% - Malta
98.29% - Liechtenstein
96.83% - Luxembourg
88.59% - Faroe Islands
68.36% - Wales
43.37% - Iceland
4.84% - Azerbaijan
0.10% - FYR Macedonia

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (29 April 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info


Spain: 100.00% in Pot 1
Netherlands: 100.00% in Pot 1
Germany: 100.00% in Pot 1
England: 100.00% in Pot 1
Italy: 100.00% in Pot 1
Croatia: 95.61% in Pot 1, 4.39% in Pot 2
Portugal: 84.43% in Pot 1, 15.57% in Pot 2
Norway: 76.52% in Pot 1, 23.48% in Pot 2
Greece: 74.08% in Pot 1, 25.92% in Pot 2
Montenegro: 52.76% in Pot 2, 47.24% in Pot 1
Russia: 86.89% in Pot 2, 13.11% in Pot 1
France: 90.99% in Pot 2, 9.01% in Pot 1
Denmark: 100.00% in Pot 2
Serbia: 100.00% in Pot 2
Slovenia: 98.24% in Pot 2, 1.76% in Pot 3
Sweden: 95.82% in Pot 2, 4.18% in Pot 3
Slovakia: 92.87% in Pot 2, 7.13% in Pot 3
Turkey: 72.77% in Pot 2, 27.23% in Pot 3
Belgium: 76.38% in Pot 3, 23.61% in Pot 2, 0.01% in Pot 4
Switzerland: 85.73% in Pot 3, 14.27% in Pot 2
Israel: 97.86% in Pot 3, 2.14% in Pot 2
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 76.64% in Pot 3, 23.14% in Pot 4, 0.22% in Pot 2
Czech Republic: 99.95% in Pot 3, 0.03% in Pot 2, 0.02% in Pot 4
Republic of Ireland: 99.78% in Pot 3, 0.19% in Pot 4, 0.03% in Pot 2
Ukraine: 97.50% in Pot 3, 2.50% in Pot 4
Hungary: 70.37% in Pot 3, 29.63% in Pot 4
Belarus: 70.30% in Pot 3, 29.70% in Pot 4
Bulgaria: 67.22% in Pot 4, 32.78% in Pot 3
Albania: 74.46% in Pot 4, 25.54% in Pot 3
Romania: 89.47% in Pot 4, 9.01% in Pot 3, 1.52% in Pot 5
Lithuania: 92.51% in Pot 4, 7.48% in Pot 3, 0.01% in Pot 5
Georgia: 96.24% in Pot 4, 3.75% in Pot 3, 0.01% in Pot 5
Armenia: 50.67% in Pot 4, 45.87% in Pot 5, 3.46% in Pot 3
Austria: 50.85% in Pot 4, 46.06% in Pot 5, 3.09% in Pot 3
Latvia: 68.81% in Pot 5, 31.15% in Pot 4, 0.04% in Pot 3
Scotland: 98.76% in Pot 4, 1.22% in Pot 5, 0.02% in Pot 3
Northern Ireland: 99.24% in Pot 4, 0.75% in Pot 5, 0.01% in Pot 3
Finland: 87.73% in Pot 5, 12.26% in Pot 4, 0.01% in Pot 3
Poland: 70.19% in Pot 5, 29.81% in Pot 4
Moldova: 90.85% in Pot 5, 9.15% in Pot 4
Estonia: 91.37% in Pot 5, 8.63% in Pot 4
FYR Macedonia: 96.85% in Pot 5, 3.05% in Pot 4, 0.10% in Pot 6
Azerbaijan: 93.83% in Pot 5, 4.84% in Pot 6, 1.33% in Pot 4
Faroe Islands: 88.59% in Pot 6, 11.40% in Pot 5, 0.01% in Pot 4
Cyprus: 100.00% in Pot 5
Iceland: 56.63% in Pot 5, 43.37% in Pot 6
Wales: 68.36% in Pot 6, 31.64% in Pot 5
Luxembourg: 96.83% in Pot 6, 3.17% in Pot 5
Liechtenstein: 98.29% in Pot 6, 1.71% in Pot 5
Malta: 99.63% in Pot 6, 0.37% in Pot 5
San Marino: 99.99% in Pot 6, 0.01% in Pot 5
Kazakhstan: 100.00% in Pot 6
Andorra: 100.00% in Pot 6

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Are some teams more equal than others?

Did you read George Orwell's Animal Farm? In Chapter 10, only one commandment remains on the wall: "All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others". Something similar happens in football - some teams don't have to follow the rules.

Some of you may remember FIFA's circular no. 1150.

"In national A team matches, up to a maximum of six substitutes may be used."

On 3 March 2010, Portugal defeated China PR 2 - 0 in a friendly match. Both teams made 7 substitutions. That game was removed from FIFA's list of "A" matches. If you go on FIFA.com and search for matches between Portugal and China PR only one result will be returned: a friendly played in May 2002 in Macau and won 2 - 0 by the Portuguese.

On 11 August 2010, Mexico tied Spain in a friendly match. Mexico made 7 substitutions, the World champions made 8. The match report can be found on Marca.com and on the website of the Mexican Football Federation (click Por Año, click AÑO 2010, click on the "5" in the "JE" column and "AÑO 2010" row, click on the score for México - España).

This match is still on FIFA.com.

Fast forward to 29 March 2011. Qatar and Russia played a friendly in Doha to celebrate their nominations as hosts of the 2022 and 2018 FIFA World Cups. The game finished 1 - 1 with Qatar making 9 substitutions and Russia 8. The match report can be found on the website of the Football Union of Russia (that's the Russian FA for those who might ask) and there's also this article in Qatar's Gulf Times. Here's an interesting quote:

Russia returned with an overhauled look after the break with Advocaat making as many as seven changes to the side without much success.

This match is still on FIFA.com.

Are some teams more equal than others?

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: May 2011 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 May.

Best movers:

11 - Senegal
10 - Afghanistan
9 - Jamaica

Worst movers:

-10 - Congo DR
-9 - Kyrgyzstan
-8 - Ecuador

Best movers in the top 50:

11 - Senegal
2 - South Africa
1 - Chile, Slovakia, Denmark and Sweden

Worst movers in the top 50:

-2 - Mexico and Burkina Faso
-1 - Japan, Belgium, Nigeria, Algeria, Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Iran, Cameroon and Colombia

South Africa overtake Nigeria for 4th in Africa.
Jamaica and Costa Rica switch places, with the Reggae Boyz now 4th in CONCACAF.

May 2011 rank - Team - May 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1857 0 0
2 Netherlands 1702 0 0
3 Brazil 1425 0 0
4 Germany 1413 0 27
5 Argentina 1267 0 -9
6 England 1163 0 0
7 Uruguay 1094 0 0
8 Portugal 1052 0 0
9 Italy 1019 0 0
10 Croatia 991 0 0
11 Norway 987 0 0
12 Greece 985 0 0
13 Chile 967 1 15
14 Japan 961 -1 0
15 Ghana 918 0 0
16 Serbia 907 0 0
17 Slovenia 903 0 0
18 Russia 896 0 0
19 France 883 0 0
20 Australia 876 0 0
21 Côte d'Ivoire 867 0 0
22 USA 855 0 0
23 Paraguay 847 0 4
24 Montenegro 820 0 0
25 Switzerland 819 0 0
26 Slovakia 809 1 0
27 Denmark 808 1 0
28 Mexico 802 -2 -16
28 Sweden 802 1 0
30 Turkey 795 0 0
31 Korea Republic 754 0 4
32 Czech Republic 722 0 0
33 Israel 709 0 0
34 Republic of Ireland 681 0 0
35 Ukraine 678 0 0
36 Egypt 676 0 0
37 South Africa 671 2 55
38 Belgium 654 -1 0
39 Nigeria 637 -1 0
40 Senegal 613 11 52
41 Algeria 609 -1 0
42 Romania 607 -1 0
43 Honduras 603 0 6
44 Burkina Faso 600 -2 0
45 Bosnia-Herzegovina 594 -1 0
46 Bulgaria 592 -1 0
47 Lithuania 577 -1 0
48 Iran 575 -1 0
49 Cameroon 572 -1 0
50 Albania 564 0 0
50 Colombia 564 -1 -4
52 Hungary 559 0 0
53 Belarus 557 0 0
54 Peru 548 0 0
55 Jamaica 546 9 24
56 Costa Rica 541 -1 1
57 Georgia 536 -1 0
58 Libya 534 0 0
59 Gabon 529 0 0
60 New Zealand 528 0 0
61 Tunisia 527 0 0
62 Armenia 524 0 0
62 Guinea 524 0 0
64 Ecuador 523 -8 -13
65 Northern Ireland 520 0 0
66 Scotland 517 0 0
67 Panama 493 1 5
68 Venezuela 489 -1 -12
69 Botswana 479 0 0
70 Mali 451 0 0
71 Poland 449 0 0
72 Malawi 446 6 16
73 Morocco 445 -1 0
74 Austria 443 -1 0
75 Estonia 440 -1 0
76 Canada 439 -1 0
77 China PR 438 0 6
77 Latvia 438 -1 0
79 Cape Verde Islands 421 0 0
80 Benin 418 0 0
81 Cuba 416 1 5
81 Finland 416 0 0
83 Uzbekistan 403 0 0
84 Uganda 402 0 0
85 FYR Macedonia 398 0 0
86 Moldova 394 0 0
87 El Salvador 391 0 3
88 Saudi Arabia 386 0 0
89 Cyprus 383 0 0
89 Iraq 383 2 3
89 Zambia 383 0 0
92 Qatar 380 -1 0
93 Jordan 378 0 -1
94 Mozambique 357 2 20
95 Trinidad and Tobago 353 -1 9
96 Haiti 348 2 14
97 Bahrain 338 -2 0
98 Grenada 337 1 6
99 Niger 335 -2 0
100 Antigua and Barbuda 322 0 0
101 Kuwait 320 0 0
102 Bolivia 312 0 0
103 Gambia 308 0 0
104 Angola 295 3 7
104 Sudan 295 1 0
104 Syria 295 0 -2
107 Oman 294 -1 4
108 Azerbaijan 288 -1 0
109 Togo 285 0 0
110 Guyana 284 0 0
111 United Arab Emirates 273 0 0
112 Suriname 267 0 0
113 Central African Republic 263 1 0
114 Tanzania 259 -2 -8
115 Wales 258 0 0
116 Korea DPR 255 2 3
117 Iceland 254 -1 0
118 Sierra Leone 246 3 12
119 St. Kitts and Nevis 245 0 0
120 Thailand 242 0 6
121 Congo 232 1 0
122 Rwanda 228 1 0
123 Kenya 227 1 0
124 Guatemala 222 1 0
125 Luxembourg 221 1 0
126 Congo DR 219 -10 -35
126 Zimbabwe 219 3 7
128 Ethiopia 218 -1 0
129 Yemen 203 -1 -14
130 Indonesia 200 0 -1
131 Dominica 193 0 0
132 Barbados 180 0 -2
132 Puerto Rico 180 1 0
134 Vietnam 172 0 0
135 Tajikistan 171 -1 -1
136 Faroe Islands 168 0 0
136 Guinea-Bissau 168 0 0
138 Madagascar 164 0 2
139 Kazakhstan 151 1 0
140 Namibia 150 1 0
141 Turkmenistan 149 -2 -4
142 Equatorial Guinea 146 0 -2
143 Malaysia 144 1 0
144 Singapore 140 1 0
145 India 139 1 0
146 Hong Kong 138 1 0
147 Nepal 135 3 9
148 Maldives 133 -5 -13
149 Burundi 127 -1 0
149 Chad 127 -1 0
151 New Caledonia 123 0 0
152 Curacao 121 0 0
153 Liechtenstein 116 0 0
153 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 116 0 0
155 Fiji 103 1 0
156 Philippines 96 -1 -8
157 Liberia 93 2 5
158 Cayman Islands 90 -1 0
159 Swaziland 89 -1 0
160 Chinese Taipei 86 1 0
161 Malta 84 2 4
162 Bermuda 80 1 0
163 Bangladesh 79 3 4
164 Afghanistan 77 10 16
165 Vanuatu 76 0 0
166 Nicaragua 75 0 0
167 Myanmar 74 -6 -12
168 Pakistan 72 0 0
169 Kyrgyzstan 70 -9 -17
169 Sri Lanka 70 4 8
171 Palestine 67 -1 0
172 Belize 66 -1 0
172 Dominican Republic 66 -1 0
174 Laos 57 1 0
174 Tahiti 57 1 0
176 Cambodia 56 -7 -12
176 Lesotho 56 1 0
178 Lebanon 51 0 -4
179 Mongolia 48 0 -5
180 Mauritania 45 0 0
181 Eritrea 42 0 0
182 Solomon Islands 40 0 0
183 British Virgin Islands 38 0 0
184 Macau 32 0 -3
185 St. Lucia 31 0 0
186 Samoa 26 0 0
187 Somalia 23 0 0
188 Comoros 19 0 0
189 Mauritius 18 0 0
190 Cook Islands 17 0 0
190 Tonga 17 0 0
192 Djibouti 15 0 0
193 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 0 0
194 Seychelles 11 0 1
195 Guam 10 -1 0
196 Bahamas 9 0 0
196 Bhutan 9 0 0
196 Brunei Darussalam 9 3 3
199 Aruba 7 -1 0
200 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
200 US Virgin Islands 3 0 0
202 American Samoa 0 0 0
202 Andorra 0 0 0
202 Anguilla 0 0 0
202 Montserrat 0 0 0
202 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
202 San Marino 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

World Cup qualification: Worst runner-up problem (UEFA)

In the 2010 UEFA FWCQ, Norway were the worst runner-up. I was looking at the groups and I thought at a different approach:

  • rank the group winners using only games against the teams ranked 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.
  • the worst group winner will play-off against the runner-up from its group
  • the other runner-ups play against each other
In the 2010 FWCQ, Denmark were the worst group winners. Using the same pairings, this is how the play-offs would have looked like:

Portugal vs Denmark
Norway vs France
Russia vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
Ukraine vs Republic of Ireland
Greece vs Slovenia

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

CONCACAF format pending FIFA approval

On Tuesday, CONCACAF have published details regarding the format they will use for the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers. Although the announcement was made 13 days after FIFA published the April 2011 ranking, CONCACAF chose the March 2011 ranking to seed the teams.

Panama would have replaced Cuba in the list of teams getting a bye to the second group stage.

The FIFA EXCO will analyze the format in its meeting to be held at the end of May.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, April 22, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): First pot scenarios

Based on current list of fixtures, five teams are already safe in the first pot: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England and Italy.

Seven teams are fighting for the last four places available in the first pot.

Greece: Malta (ECQ - H) (Italy match has been canceled)
Croatia: Georgia (ECQ - H)
Portugal: Norway (ECQ - H)
Norway: Portugal (ECQ - A), Lithuania (F - H)
Montenegro: Bulgaria (ECQ - H)
France: Belarus (ECQ - A), Ukraine (F - A), Poland (F - A)
Russia: Armenia (ECQ - H)

France and Russia depend on other results going their way, but the other five teams (yes, including Montenegro) have their faith in their own hands.

Greece

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Greece - Malta 1

Other options:

Greece - Malta X and two of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)
Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2)

Greece - Malta 2 and two of the following must happen:

(Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2) or Portugal - Norway 2
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Belarus - France 1X or Ukraine - France 1x or Poland - France 1

Croatia

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Croatia - Georgia 1

Other options:

Croatia - Georgia X and two of the following must happen:

(Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2) or (Portugal - Norway 2)
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta 2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Croatia - Georgia 2 and three of the following must happen:

Portugal - Norway 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
Belarus - France 1x or France to make at most two points against Ukraine and Poland

Portugal

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Portugal - Norway 1

Other options:

Portugal - Norway X and two of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Portugal - Norway 2 and all three to happen:

Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
(Belarus - France 1X and Ukraine - France 1 and Poland - France 1X) or (Belarus - France 1 and France not to win both games against Ukraine and Poland)

Norway

Safe in pot 1 if:

Portugal - Norway 2

OR

Portugal - Norway X
Norway - Lithuania 1X

Other options:

Portugal - Norway X, Norway - Lithuania 2 and one of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Portugal - Norway 1, Norway - Lithuania 1 and two of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Portugal Norway 1, Norway - Lithuania X and three of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
(Belarus - France 1x or France to make at most two points against Ukraine and Poland or Ukraine - France 1)

Portugal Norway 1, Norway - Lithuania 2 and three of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
(Belarus - France 1x or France to make at most one point against Ukraine and Poland)

Montenegro

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Montenegro - Bulgaria 1

Any other results means Pot 2.

Russia

Russia - Armenia 1 and three of the following must happen:

(Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2) or (Portugal - Norway 2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Belarus - France 1X or France to make at most two points against Ukraine and Poland or Ukraine - France 1

Any other results means Pot 2.

France

Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France 2 and two of the following to happen:

Greece - Malta X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Croatia - Georgia X2
Portugal - Norway 12 or (Portugal - Norway X and Norway - Lithuania 2)


Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France X and two of the following to happen:

Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta 2

Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France X, Poland - France 2

or

Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France 1

and two of the following to happen:

Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2


Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France X, Poland - France X

and three of the following to happen:

Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania 2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2



Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France X, Poland - France 1

or

Belarus - France X, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France 2

and all three to happen:

Portugal - Norway 1
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (22 April 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumptions:

  • Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
  • The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (22 April 2011)

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (22 April 2011)

Nine teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).

Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England and Italy in Pot 1.
Denmark and Serbia in Pot 2.
Andorra and Kazakhstan in Pot 6.

Cyprus appear 100% in Pot  5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Poland have improved their chances to reach pot 4 by scheduling a friendly against Czech Republic from 30.11% to 46.61%. Somebody had to lose and it's Armenia - their chances of reaching pot 4 dropping from 50.58% to 40.37%. Poland also replace Armenia in Pot 4 (see below).

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Poland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (22 April 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info.  

Pot 1

100.00% - Spain
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Germany
100.00% - England
100.00% - Italy
98.97% - Greece
94.30% - Croatia
78.85% - Portugal
63.25% - Norway
47.24% - Montenegro
12.13% - Russia
5.26% - France

Pot 2

100.00% - Denmark
100.00% - Serbia
98.22% - Slovenia
95.91% - Sweden
94.74% - France
93.40% - Slovakia
87.87% - Russia
72.20% - Turkey
52.76% - Montenegro
36.75% - Norway
23.85% - Belgium
21.15% - Portugal
14.20% - Switzerland
5.70% - Croatia
2.02% - Israel
1.03% - Greece
0.15% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.05% - Republic of Ireland

Pot 3

99.99% - Czech Republic
99.81% - Republic of Ireland
97.98% - Israel
97.32% - Ukraine
85.80% - Switzerland
76.56% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
76.14% - Belgium
70.86% - Hungary
70.18% - Belarus
33.57% - Bulgaria
27.80% - Turkey
25.57% - Albania
8.93% - Romania
7.63% - Lithuania
6.60% - Slovakia
4.09% - Sweden
3.59% - Georgia
2.92% - Armenia
2.82% - Austria
1.78% - Slovenia
0.02% - Northern Ireland
0.02% - Finland
0.01% - Scotland
0.01% - Latvia

Pot 4

98.89% - Northern Ireland
98.70% - Scotland
96.41% - Georgia
92.37% - Lithuania
89.07% - Romania
74.43% - Albania
66.43% - Bulgaria
49.53% - Austria
46.61% - Poland
40.37% - Armenia
30.43% - Latvia
29.82% - Belarus
29.14% - Hungary
23.29% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
10.97% - Finland
8.66% - Moldova
7.97% - Estonia
2.77% - FYR Macedonia
2.68% - Ukraine
1.30% - Azerbaijan
0.14% - Republic of Ireland
0.01% - Belgium
0.01% - Czech Republic

Pot 5

100.00% - Cyprus
97.18% - FYR Macedonia
94.00% - Azerbaijan
92.03% - Estonia
91.34% - Moldova
89.01% - Finland
69.56% - Latvia
56.71% - Armenia
56.36% - Iceland
53.39% - Poland
47.65% - Austria
32.02% - Wales
11.17% - Faroe Islands
3.37% - Luxembourg
2.00% - Romania
1.55% - Liechtenstein
1.29% - Scotland
1.09% - Northern Ireland
0.27% - Malta
0.01% - San Marino

Pot 6

100.00% - Kazakhstan
100.00% - Andorra
99.99% - San Marino
99.73% - Malta
98.45% - Liechtenstein
96.63% - Luxembourg
88.83% - Faroe Islands
67.98% - Wales
43.64% - Iceland
4.70% - Azerbaijan
0.05% - FYR Macedonia

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (22 April 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info.  

Spain: 100.00% in Pot 1
Netherlands: 100.00% in Pot 1
Germany: 100.00% in Pot 1
England: 100.00% in Pot 1
Italy: 100.00% in Pot 1
Greece: 98.97% in Pot 1, 1.03% in Pot 2
Croatia: 94.30% in Pot 1, 5.70% in Pot 2
Portugal: 78.85% in Pot 1, 21.15% in Pot 2
Norway: 63.25% in Pot 1, 36.75% in Pot 2
Montenegro: 52.76% in Pot 2, 47.24% in Pot 1
Russia: 87.87% in Pot 2, 12.13% in Pot 1
France: 94.74% in Pot 2, 5.26% in Pot 1
Denmark: 100.00% in Pot 2
Serbia: 100.00% in Pot 2
Slovenia: 98.22% in Pot 2, 1.78% in Pot 3
Sweden: 95.91% in Pot 2, 4.09% in Pot 3
Slovakia: 93.40% in Pot 2, 6.60% in Pot 3
Turkey: 72.20% in Pot 2, 27.80% in Pot 3
Belgium: 76.14% in Pot 3, 23.85% in Pot 2, 0.01% in Pot 4
Switzerland: 85.80% in Pot 3, 14.20% in Pot 2
Israel: 97.98% in Pot 3, 2.02% in Pot 2
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 76.56% in Pot 3, 23.29% in Pot 4, 0.15% in Pot 2
Republic of Ireland: 99.81% in Pot 3, 0.14% in Pot 4, 0.05% in Pot 2
Czech Republic: 99.99% in Pot 3, 0.01% in Pot 4
Ukraine: 97.32% in Pot 3, 2.68% in Pot 4
Hungary: 70.86% in Pot 3, 29.14% in Pot 4
Belarus: 70.18% in Pot 3, 29.82% in Pot 4
Bulgaria: 66.43% in Pot 4, 33.57% in Pot 3
Albania: 74.43% in Pot 4, 25.57% in Pot 3
Romania: 89.07% in Pot 4, 8.93% in Pot 3, 2.00% in Pot 5
Lithuania: 92.37% in Pot 4, 7.63% in Pot 3
Georgia: 96.41% in Pot 4, 3.59% in Pot 3
Armenia: 56.71% in Pot 5, 40.37% in Pot 4, 2.92% in Pot 3
Austria: 49.53% in Pot 4, 47.65% in Pot 5, 2.82% in Pot 3
Northern Ireland: 98.89% in Pot 4, 1.09% in Pot 5, 0.02% in Pot 3
Finland: 89.01% in Pot 5, 10.97% in Pot 4, 0.02% in Pot 3
Scotland: 98.70% in Pot 4, 1.29% in Pot 5, 0.01% in Pot 3
Latvia: 69.56% in Pot 5, 30.43% in Pot 4, 0.01% in Pot 3
Poland: 53.39% in Pot 5, 46.61% in Pot 4
Moldova: 91.34% in Pot 5, 8.66% in Pot 4
Estonia: 92.03% in Pot 5, 7.97% in Pot 4
FYR Macedonia: 97.18% in Pot 5, 2.77% in Pot 4, 0.05% in Pot 6
Azerbaijan: 94.00% in Pot 5, 4.70% in Pot 6, 1.30% in Pot 4
Cyprus: 100.00% in Pot 5
Iceland: 56.36% in Pot 5, 43.64% in Pot 6
Wales: 67.98% in Pot 6, 32.02% in Pot 5
Faroe Islands: 88.83% in Pot 6, 11.17% in Pot 5
Luxembourg: 96.63% in Pot 6, 3.37% in Pot 5
Liechtenstein: 98.45% in Pot 6, 1.55% in Pot 5
Malta: 99.73% in Pot 6, 0.27% in Pot 5
San Marino: 99.99% in Pot 6, 0.01% in Pot 5
Kazakhstan: 100.00% in Pot 6
Andorra: 100.00% in Pot 6

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

April 2011: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Solomon Islands 182 117 65
Fiji 156 111 45
Papua New Guinea 202 164 38
Bolivia 102 69 33
Lebanon 178 145 33
Venezuela 67 35 32
Iraq 91 60 31
Kuwait 101 70 31
Wales 115 84 31
New Caledonia 151 121 30


Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Algeria 40 92 -52
Puerto Rico 133 176 -43
Armenia 62 104 -42
Luxembourg 126 166 -40
Antigua and Barbuda 100 137 -37
Albania 50 86 -36
Dominica 131 167 -36
Grenada 99 133 -34
Burkina Faso 42 75 -33
St. Kitts and Nevis 119 152 -33

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

 Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Venezuela 67 35 32
China PR 77 49 28
Poland 71 44 27
Colombia 49 26 23
Ecuador 56 36 20
Scotland 66 46 20
Iran 47 30 17
Jamaica 64 47 17
Sweden 29 14 15
Egypt 36 21 15

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

 Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
 
Algeria 40 92 -52
Albania 50 86 -36
Burkina Faso 42 75 -33
Slovakia 27 56 -29
Slovenia 17 42 -25
Greece 12 29 -17
Lithuania 46 62 -16
Montenegro 24 38 -14
Norway 11 24 -13
Serbia 16 28 -12

Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:

Venezuela - Slovakia
China PR - Algeria
Poland - Albania
Colombia - Slovenia
Ecuador - Armenia
Scotland - Burkina Faso
Iran - Lithuania
Jamaica - Georgia
Sweden - Montenegro
Egypt - Greece

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, April 15, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations

Quick note for journalists and bloggers. I noticed that lately some of you tend to use data from my blog without bothering to mention the source. As I mentioned before, you are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info.


I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumptions:
  • Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
  • The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams
When you see 100% it means in all the 10000 simulations that team landed in a certain pot. It doesn't automatically mean that team is 100% safe. Next Friday I will publish a post that will explain scenarios and will answer all those "what does my team have to do in order to be in pot X?" questions.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info.

See the explanation here.

Pot 1:


100.00% - Spain
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Germany
100.00% - England
100.00% - Italy
98.87% - Greece
94.22% - Croatia
78.54% - Portugal
63.10% - Norway
47.70% - Montenegro
12.05% - Russia
5.52% - France

Pot 2:

100.00% - Denmark
100.00% - Serbia
98.17% - Slovenia
95.85% - Sweden
94.48% - France
93.37% - Slovakia
87.95% - Russia
72.26% - Turkey
52.30% - Montenegro
36.90% - Norway
23.65% - Belgium
21.46% - Portugal
14.26% - Switzerland
5.78% - Croatia
2.15% - Israel
1.13% - Greece
0.26% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.03% - Republic of Ireland

Pot 3:

100.00% - Czech Republic
99.82% - Republic of Ireland
98.58% - Ukraine
97.85% - Israel
85.74% - Switzerland
76.35% - Belgium
76.20% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
70.19% - Hungary
69.58% - Belarus
31.35% - Bulgaria
27.74% - Turkey
25.76% - Albania
9.79% - Romania
7.65% - Lithuania
6.63% - Slovakia
4.15% - Sweden
3.66% - Georgia
3.60% - Austria
3.44% - Armenia
1.83% - Slovenia
0.04% - Northern Ireland
0.02% - Scotland
0.01% - Estonia
0.01% - Latvia
0.01% - Finland

Pot 4:

99.26% - Northern Ireland
98.79% - Scotland
96.34% - Georgia
92.35% - Lithuania
88.54% - Romania
74.24% - Albania
68.65% - Bulgaria
50.58% - Armenia
49.73% - Austria
30.90% - Latvia
30.42% - Belarus
30.11% - Poland
29.81% - Hungary
23.54% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
13.20% - Finland
8.90% - Estonia
8.76% - Moldova
2.83% - FYR Macedonia
1.46% - Azerbaijan
1.42% - Ukraine
0.15% - Republic of Ireland
0.02% - Faroe Islands

Pot 5:

100.00% - Cyprus
97.16% - FYR Macedonia
93.86% - Azerbaijan
91.24% - Moldova
91.09% - Estonia
86.79% - Finland
69.89% - Poland
69.09% - Latvia
56.66% - Iceland
46.67% - Austria
45.98% - Armenia
31.95% - Wales
10.33% - Faroe Islands
3.53% - Luxembourg
1.82% - Liechtenstein
1.67% - Romania
1.19% - Scotland
0.70% - Northern Ireland
0.38% - Malta

Pot 6:

100.00% - Kazakhstan
100.00% - Andorra
100.00% - San Marino
99.62% - Malta
98.18% - Liechtenstein
96.47% - Luxembourg
89.65% - Faroe Islands
68.05% - Wales
43.34% - Iceland
4.68% - Azerbaijan
0.01% - FYR Macedonia

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.