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Friday, May 27, 2011

Wales almost in pot 6

It's no longer in their hands. First of all they need to win against Northern Ireland tonight. Any other result will end their hopes of avoiding the last pot. Then they face an anxious wait, as they need Iceland, Faroe Islands and Luxembourg to stumble.

Of course, it's quite likely FAW know nothing about it so there won't be any anxious wait, just an unpleasant surprise when FIFA announce the seeding.

Matches involving Iceland, Faroe Islands and Luxembourg:

03 Jun Luxembourg - Hungary (Friendly)
03 Jun Faroe Islands - Slovenia (Continental Qualifier)
04 Jun Iceland - Denmark (Continental Qualifier)
07 Jun Faroe Islands - Estonia (Continental Qualifier)
07 Jun Belarus - Luxembourg (Continental Qualifier)

What results do the Welsh need, besides a win against Northern Ireland?

Belarus - Luxembourg 1 or (Luxembourg - Hungary X2 and Belarus - Luxembourg X)
Faroe Islands - Slovenia X2 and Faroe Islands - Estonia X2
Iceland - Denmark 2

May 2011: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Solomon Islands 182 117 65
Fiji 155 111 44
Papua New Guinea 202 164 38
Venezuela 68 35 33
Bolivia 102 69 33
Lebanon 178 145 33
Kuwait 101 70 31
Wales 114 84 30
Turkmenistan 141 111 30
Vanuatu 165 135 30

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Algeria 41 92 -51
Puerto Rico 132 176 -44
Armenia 62 104 -42
Luxembourg 125 166 -41
Antigua and Barbuda 100 137 -37
Albania 50 86 -36
Dominica 131 167 -36
Grenada 98 133 -35
St. Kitts and Nevis 119 152 -33
Burkina Faso 44 75 -31

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Venezuela 68 35 33
Ecuador 64 35 29
China PR 77 49 28
Poland 71 44 27
Colombia 50 26 24
Scotland 66 46 20
Iran 48 30 18
Mexico 28 12 16
Egypt 36 21 15
Sweden 28 14 14

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Algeria 41 92 -51
Albania 50 86 -36
Burkina Faso 44 75 -31
Slovakia 26 56 -30
Slovenia 17 42 -25
Greece 12 29 -17
Lithuania 47 62 -15
Montenegro 24 38 -14
Senegal 40 54 -14
Norway 11 24 -13

Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:

Venezuela - Slovakia
Ecuador - Slovenia
China PR - Algeria
Poland - Albania
Colombia - Montenegro
Scotland - Armenia
Iran - Lithuania
Mexico - Greece
Egypt - Belgium
Sweden - Serbia

Friday, May 20, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (20 May 2011)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings, assuming "latest edition" means the July ranking.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): Simulation results by pot (20 May 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): Simulation results by team (20 May 2011)

13 teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).

Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Algeria and Senegal in Pot 1.
Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles and Sao Tome e Principe in Pot 5.

Rwanda appear 100% in Pot 4, but they could also drop to Pot 5 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia
Pot 2: Botswana, Cape Verde Islands, Gabon, Guinea, Libya, Malawi, Mali, Morocco, Uganda, Zambia
Pot 3: Angola, Benin, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Zimbabwe
Pot 4 (Pot 1 in the preliminary draw): Congo, Congo DR, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Madagascar, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Togo
Pot 5 (Pot 2 in the preliminary draw): Burundi, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Lesotho, Liberia, Mauritius, Sao Tome e Principe, Seychelles, Somalia, Swaziland

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): Simulation results by pot (20 May 2011)

Pot 1

100.00% - Côte d'Ivoire
100.00% - Egypt
100.00% - Ghana
100.00% - Burkina Faso
100.00% - Algeria
100.00% - Senegal
99.53% - Nigeria
96.48% - South Africa
89.73% - Cameroon
70.44% - Tunisia
32.74% - Gabon
9.69% - Benin
1.39% - Libya

Pot 2

99.98% - Guinea
99.95% - Malawi
99.34% - Botswana
98.61% - Libya
97.93% - Mali
90.22% - Uganda
88.47% - Cape Verde Islands
86.92% - Zambia
72.95% - Morocco
67.26% - Gabon
29.56% - Tunisia
26.09% - Benin
14.43% - Niger
10.27% - Cameroon
8.01% - Mozambique
3.68% - Central African Republic
3.52% - South Africa
2.34% - Congo
0.47% - Nigeria

Pot 3

99.98% - Sudan
99.20% - Angola
93.19% - Central African Republic
91.94% - Mozambique
85.57% - Niger
64.22% - Benin
63.47% - Sierra Leone
55.13% - Zimbabwe
40.85% - Gambia
27.05% - Morocco
13.09% - Namibia
13.08% - Zambia
12.18% - Tanzania
11.53% - Cape Verde Islands
9.78% - Uganda
4.83% - Madagascar
3.96% - Congo
3.12% - Congo DR
2.93% - Guinea-Bissau
2.07% - Mali
0.82% - Togo
0.70% - Ethiopia
0.66% - Botswana
0.32% - Kenya
0.26% - Chad
0.05% - Malawi
0.02% - Guinea

Pot 4 (Pot 1 in the preliminary draw)

100.00% - Rwanda
99.68% - Kenya
99.18% - Togo
98.56% - Ethiopia
96.88% - Congo DR
93.70% - Congo
87.82% - Tanzania
85.59% - Madagascar
75.20% - Equatorial Guinea
69.29% - Guinea-Bissau
59.17% - Namibia
59.15% - Gambia
44.87% - Zimbabwe
37.52% - Burundi
36.53% - Sierra Leone
19.13% - Swaziland
18.77% - Liberia
13.05% - Chad
3.13% - Central African Republic
1.91% - Comoros
0.80% - Angola
0.05% - Mozambique
0.02% - Sudan

Pot 5 (Pot 2 in the preliminary draw)

100.00% - Lesotho
100.00% - Eritrea
100.00% - Somalia
100.00% - Djibouti
100.00% - Mauritius
100.00% - Seychelles
100.00% - Sao Tome e Principe
98.09% - Comoros
86.69% - Chad
81.23% - Liberia
80.87% - Swaziland
62.48% - Burundi
27.78% - Guinea-Bissau
27.74% - Namibia
24.80% - Equatorial Guinea
9.58% - Madagascar
0.74% - Ethiopia

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): Simulation results by team (20 May 2011)

Côte d'Ivoire: 100.00% in Pot 1
Egypt: 100.00% in Pot 1
Ghana: 100.00% in Pot 1
Burkina Faso: 100.00% in Pot 1
Algeria: 100.00% in Pot 1
Senegal: 100.00% in Pot 1
Nigeria: 99.53% in Pot 1, 0.47% in Pot 2
South Africa: 96.48% in Pot 1, 3.52% in Pot 2
Cameroon: 89.73% in Pot 1, 10.27% in Pot 2
Tunisia: 70.44% in Pot 1, 29.56% in Pot 2
Gabon: 67.26% in Pot 2, 32.74% in Pot 1
Benin: 64.22% in Pot 3, 26.09% in Pot 2, 9.69% in Pot 1
Libya: 98.61% in Pot 2, 1.39% in Pot 1
Guinea: 99.98% in Pot 2, 0.02% in Pot 3
Malawi: 99.95% in Pot 2, 0.05% in Pot 3
Botswana: 99.34% in Pot 2, 0.66% in Pot 3
Mali: 97.93% in Pot 2, 2.07% in Pot 3
Uganda: 90.22% in Pot 2, 9.78% in Pot 3
Cape Verde Islands: 88.47% in Pot 2, 11.53% in Pot 3
Zambia: 86.92% in Pot 2, 13.08% in Pot 3
Morocco: 72.95% in Pot 2, 27.05% in Pot 3
Niger: 85.57% in Pot 3, 14.43% in Pot 2
Mozambique: 91.94% in Pot 3, 8.01% in Pot 2, 0.05% in Pot 4
Central African Republic: 93.19% in Pot 3, 3.68% in Pot 2, 3.13% in Pot 4
Congo: 93.70% in Pot 4, 3.96% in Pot 3, 2.34% in Pot 2
Sudan: 99.98% in Pot 3, 0.02% in Pot 4
Angola: 99.20% in Pot 3, 0.80% in Pot 4
Sierra Leone: 63.47% in Pot 3, 36.53% in Pot 4
Zimbabwe: 55.13% in Pot 3, 44.87% in Pot 4
Gambia: 59.15% in Pot 4, 40.85% in Pot 3
Namibia: 59.17% in Pot 4, 27.74% in Pot 5, 13.09% in Pot 3
Tanzania: 87.82% in Pot 4, 12.18% in Pot 3
Madagascar: 85.59% in Pot 4, 9.58% in Pot 5, 4.83% in Pot 3
Congo DR: 96.88% in Pot 4, 3.12% in Pot 3
Guinea-Bissau: 69.29% in Pot 4, 27.78% in Pot 5, 2.93% in Pot 3
Togo: 99.18% in Pot 4, 0.82% in Pot 3
Ethiopia: 98.56% in Pot 4, 0.74% in Pot 5, 0.70% in Pot 3
Kenya: 99.68% in Pot 4, 0.32% in Pot 3
Chad: 86.69% in Pot 5, 13.05% in Pot 4, 0.26% in Pot 3
Rwanda: 100.00% in Pot 4
Equatorial Guinea: 75.20% in Pot 4, 24.80% in Pot 5
Burundi: 62.48% in Pot 5, 37.52% in Pot 4
Swaziland: 80.87% in Pot 5, 19.13% in Pot 4
Liberia: 81.23% in Pot 5, 18.77% in Pot 4
Comoros: 98.09% in Pot 5, 1.91% in Pot 4
Lesotho: 100.00% in Pot 5
Eritrea: 100.00% in Pot 5
Somalia: 100.00% in Pot 5
Djibouti: 100.00% in Pot 5
Mauritius: 100.00% in Pot 5
Seychelles: 100.00% in Pot 5
Sao Tome e Principe: 100.00% in Pot 5

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF) using the April ranking

As mentioned in this post, it's unclear what the "latest edition" of the FIFA Rankings actually means. At the time of the official announcement the most recent edition was the April release.

This is how the seeding will look using the April 2011 ranking.

Preliminary round

Pot 1: Central African Republic, Congo DR, Sierra Leone, Congo, Rwanda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea

Pot 2: Chad, Burundi, Swaziland, Liberia, Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Comoros, Mauritius, Djibouti, Seychelles, Sao Tome e Principe

Group stage

Pot 1: Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa, Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Senegal, Libya
Pot 2: Gabon, Tunisia, Guinea, Botswana, Mali, Morocco, Malawi, Cape Verde Islands, Benin, Uganda
Pot 3: Zambia, Mozambique, Niger, Gambia, Sudan, Angola, Togo, Tanzania

It remains to be seen how FIFA/CAF will handle the 12 winners from the preliminary round. They could make a pot with 12 teams or choose the pairs involving the top four teams from the first pot of the preliminary round (Central African Republic, Congo DR, Sierra Leone and Congo).

Remember only the group winner goes to the next stage - a play-off against another group winner. Just imagine a group with Ghana, Tunisia, Zambia and a team from the preliminary stage...

2014 FIFA World Cup: CAF format revealed

Someone posted a link to the format announcement. Thanks!

The qualifying series will begin with a preliminary round involving the bottom 24-bottom FIFA ranked teams according to the latest edition of FIFA ranking.
The 12 teams to qualifiy from the preliminary round will join the 28 teams, on a bye for the next phase.

The top team from each of the 10 groups will qualify for the final play-off, and will play on home and away basis to determine the five slots.

In all, 154 matches will played between November 2011 and November 2013.


PDF file detailing the qualifying format.

Mauritania are the one team not participating and we'll see Sao Tome e Principe return to competitions after 8 years.

This changes the seeding quite a bit. It also depends on what "latest edition" of the FIFA rankings means. April (since the announcement was made on May 16, before the May ranking was published) or July (the latest edition at the time of the draw)?

FIFA Ranking: June 2011 probable ranking

Next update: June 3rd, 2011.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results...

Montenegro (up 14 places) replace Uruguay in the top 10... Would you believe it? :) Montenegro have a population of 661807. That would be an amazing achievement for such a small country.

Germany up to 3rd, Brazil drop to 5th, Argentina 8th. New Zealand drop more than 30 places.

Probable June 2011 rank - Team - Probable June 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points 


1 Spain 1871 0 14
2 Netherlands 1688 0 -14
3 Germany 1417 1 4
4 England 1243 2 80
5 Brazil 1130 -2 -295
6 Italy 1104 3 85
7 Portugal 1046 1 -6
8 Argentina 1039 -3 -228
9 Croatia 1033 1 42
10 Montenegro 1011 14 191
11 Mexico 998 17 196
12 Norway 972 -1 -15
13 Japan 969 1 8
14 Greece 959 -2 -26
15 Russia 940 3 44
16 France 932 3 49
17 Côte d'Ivoire 922 4 55
18 USA 887 4 32
19 Sweden 884 9 82
20 Uruguay 876 -13 -218
21 Denmark 857 6 49
22 Australia 852 -2 -24
23 Slovenia 833 -6 -70
24 Turkey 820 6 25
25 Korea Republic 787 6 33
26 Egypt 785 10 109
27 Chile 782 -14 -185
27 Serbia 782 -11 -125
29 Slovakia 779 -3 -30
30 Paraguay 756 -7 -91
31 Ghana 735 -16 -183
32 Switzerland 724 -7 -95
33 Republic of Ireland 708 1 27
34 Israel 703 -1 -6
35 Belgium 691 2 37
36 Czech Republic 682 -4 -40
37 Honduras 680 6 77
38 Cameroon 669 11 97
39 Burkina Faso 661 5 61
40 Bosnia-Herzegovina 642 5 48
41 Ukraine 636 -6 -42
42 Jamaica 624 13 78
43 Nigeria 605 -4 -32
44 Hungary 603 8 44
45 Costa Rica 601 11 60
46 Belarus 594 7 37
47 Iran 578 1 3
48 Algeria 575 -7 -34
49 Senegal 572 -9 -41
50 Romania 571 -8 -36
51 Lithuania 568 -4 -9
52 Colombia 564 -2 0
53 South Africa 553 -15 -100
54 Bulgaria 550 -8 -42
55 Peru 546 -1 -2
56 Gabon 535 3 6
57 Georgia 530 0 -6
57 Libya 530 1 -4
59 Tunisia 527 2 0
60 Albania 524 -10 -40
61 Scotland 513 5 -4
62 Northern Ireland 506 3 -14
63 Botswana 496 6 17
64 Morocco 494 9 49
65 Panama 490 2 -3
66 Austria 479 8 36
67 Guinea 475 -5 -49
68 Armenia 462 -6 -62
69 Ecuador 459 -5 -64
70 Venezuela 458 -2 -31
71 Cape Verde Islands 443 8 22
71 Poland 443 0 -6
73 Mali 439 -3 -12
74 Malawi 438 -2 -8
75 Estonia 434 0 -6
75 Latvia 434 2 -4
77 Zambia 433 12 50
78 China PR 426 -1 -12
79 Finland 419 2 3
80 Uganda 417 4 15
81 Cyprus 398 8 15
82 Jordan 385 11 7
83 Moldova 383 3 -11
84 Uzbekistan 381 -1 -22
85 Benin 380 -5 -38
86 Cuba 377 -5 -39
86 Haiti 377 10 29
88 Trinidad and Tobago 374 7 21
89 Central African Republic 370 24 107
90 Saudi Arabia 366 -2 -20
91 Canada 365 -15 -74
92 Niger 356 7 21
93 Qatar 355 -1 -25
94 El Salvador 349 -7 -42
95 Iraq 346 -6 -37
96 New Zealand 345 -36 -183
97 Sudan 343 7 48
98 FYR Macedonia 338 -13 -60
99 Angola 329 5 34
99 Bahrain 329 -2 -9
99 Kuwait 329 2 9
102 Bolivia 327 0 15
102 Mozambique 327 -8 -31
104 Azerbaijan 299 4 11
105 Oman 298 2 4
106 Suriname 296 6 29
107 Syria 290 -3 -5
108 Grenada 288 -10 -49
108 United Arab Emirates 288 3 15
110 Togo 279 -1 -6
111 Antigua and Barbuda 277 -11 -45
111 Guyana 277 -1 -7
113 Zimbabwe 268 13 49
114 Sierra Leone 261 4 15
115 Gambia 257 -12 -51
116 Korea DPR 255 -1 0
117 St. Kitts and Nevis 248 2 3
118 Iceland 244 -2 -10
119 Wales 240 -5 -18
120 Thailand 239 0 -3
121 Congo DR 238 5 19
122 Guatemala 233 2 11
123 Tanzania 231 -6 -21
124 Luxembourg 213 1 -8
125 Kenya 209 -2 -18
126 Congo 206 -5 -26
127 Rwanda 205 -5 -23
128 Yemen 199 1 -4
129 Indonesia 195 1 -5
130 Dominica 193 1 0
131 Tajikistan 180 4 9
132 Kazakhstan 173 7 22
133 Puerto Rico 167 -1 -13
134 Madagascar 166 4 2
135 Barbados 159 -3 -21
135 Vietnam 159 -1 -13
137 Faroe Islands 156 -1 -12
138 Ethiopia 149 -10 -69
139 Turkmenistan 147 2 -2
140 Malaysia 146 3 2
141 Guinea-Bissau 142 -5 -26
141 Singapore 142 3 2
143 Hong Kong 141 3 3
144 India 137 1 -2
145 Nepal 136 2 1
146 Equatorial Guinea 131 -4 -15
147 Burundi 130 2 3
148 Curacao 128 4 7
149 Maldives 126 -1 -7
150 Chad 123 -1 -4
151 Namibia 117 -11 -33
152 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 115 1 -1
153 Liechtenstein 109 0 -7
154 Fiji 103 1 0
155 New Caledonia 97 -4 -26
156 Philippines 96 0 0
157 Cayman Islands 90 1 0
158 Malta 83 3 -1
159 Bangladesh 81 4 2
160 Chinese Taipei 77 0 -9
161 Liberia 76 -4 -17
161 Swaziland 76 -2 -13
163 Afghanistan 75 1 -2
163 Nicaragua 75 3 0
165 Myanmar 72 2 -2
165 Palestine 72 6 5
167 Kyrgyzstan 70 2 0
167 Pakistan 70 1 -2
169 Sri Lanka 69 0 -1
170 Dominican Republic 66 2 0
171 Belize 64 1 -2
171 Vanuatu 64 -6 -12
173 Cambodia 57 3 1
173 Laos 57 1 0
173 Tahiti 57 1 0
176 Lebanon 55 2 4
177 Lesotho 46 -1 -10
178 Mongolia 41 1 -7
179 Bermuda 40 -17 -40
179 Solomon Islands 40 3 0
181 British Virgin Islands 38 2 0
182 Macau 32 2 0
182 Mauritania 32 -2 -13
184 St. Lucia 31 1 0
185 Eritrea 29 -4 -13
186 Samoa 26 0 0
187 Somalia 23 0 0
188 Comoros 19 0 0
189 Mauritius 17 0 -1
190 Seychelles 15 4 4
190 Tonga 15 0 -2
192 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 1 0
193 Djibouti 12 -1 -3
194 Cook Islands 10 -4 -7
194 Guam 10 1 0
196 Bahamas 9 0 0
196 Brunei Darussalam 9 0 0
198 Aruba 7 1 0
199 Bhutan 6 -3 -3
200 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
200 US Virgin Islands 3 0 0
202 American Samoa 0 0 0
202 Andorra 0 0 0
202 Anguilla 0 0 0
202 Montserrat 0 0 0
202 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
202 San Marino 0 0 0

FIFA Ranking: June 2011 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the June 2011 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

20/May Guyana - Barbados 1 (Friendly)
22/May Guyana - Barbados 1 (Friendly)
24/May Republic of Ireland - Northern Ireland 1 (Friendly)
25/May Argentina - Paraguay 1 (Friendly)
25/May Scotland - Wales 1 (Friendly)
27/May Grenada - Antigua and Barbuda 1 (Friendly)
27/May Wales - Northern Ireland X (Friendly)
28/May Mexico - Ecuador 1 (Friendly)
28/May Swaziland - Malawi 2 (Friendly)
29/May El Salvador - Honduras 2 (Friendly)
29/May Tunisia - Central African Republic 1 (Friendly)
29/May Republic of Ireland - Scotland 1 (Friendly)
29/May Germany - Uruguay 1 (Friendly)
01/Jun Nigeria - Argentina 2 (Friendly)
01/Jun Canada - Ecuador X (Friendly)
01/Jun Mexico - New Zealand 1 (Friendly)
01/Jun Japan - Peru 1 (Friendly)
01/Jun Guatemala - Venezuela 2 (Friendly)
01/Jun Ukraine - Uzbekistan 1 (Friendly)
03/Jun Namibia - Burkina Faso 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Hong Kong - Malaysia X (Friendly)
03/Jun Bolivia - Paraguay 2 (Friendly)
03/Jun Korea Republic - Serbia 1 (Friendly)
03/Jun Faroe Islands - Slovenia 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Kazakhstan - Azerbaijan X (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Liechtenstein - Lithuania 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Croatia - Georgia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Luxembourg - Hungary 2 (Friendly)
03/Jun Austria - Germany 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun San Marino - Finland 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Belgium - Turkey X (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Italy - Estonia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Romania - Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Moldova - Sweden 2 (Continental Qualifier)
03/Jun Belarus - France 2 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Zambia - Mozambique 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Central African Republic - Tanzania 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Morocco - Algeria 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Cameroon - Senegal 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Sierra Leone - Niger X (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Egypt - South Africa 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Ghana - Congo 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Uganda - Guinea-Bissau 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Botswana - Malawi 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Brazil - Netherlands X (Friendly)
04/Jun USA - Spain 2 (Friendly)
04/Jun Peru - Czech Republic 2 (Friendly)
04/Jun England - Switzerland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Iceland - Denmark 2 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Russia - Armenia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Latvia - Israel X (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Slovakia - Andorra 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Montenegro - Bulgaria 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Portugal - Norway 1 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun FYR Macedonia - Republic of Ireland 2 (Continental Qualifier)
04/Jun Greece - Malta 1 (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun Zimbabwe - Mali X (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun Liberia - Cape Verde Islands 2 (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun Guinea - Madagascar 1 (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun Ethiopia - Nigeria 2 (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun Comoros - Libya 2 (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun Mauritius - Congo DR 2 (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun Burundi - Rwanda X (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun Benin - Côte dIvoire 2 (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun Swaziland - Sudan 2 (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun Angola - Kenya 1 (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun Tunisia - Chad 1 (Continental Qualifier)
05/Jun China PR - Uzbekistan 1 (Friendly)
05/Jun Australia - New Zealand 1 (Friendly)
05/Jun Poland - Argentina 2 (Friendly)
05/Jun Costa Rica - Cuba 1 (Continental Final)
05/Jun Mexico - El Salvador 1 (Continental Final)
06/Jun Jamaica - Grenada 1 (Continental Final)
06/Jun Honduras - Guatemala 1 (Continental Final)
06/Jun Ukraine - France X (Friendly)
07/Jun Paraguay - Bolivia 1 (Friendly)
07/Jun Norway - Lithuania 1 (Friendly)
07/Jun Brazil - Romania 1 (Friendly)
07/Jun Japan - Czech Republic 1 (Friendly)
07/Jun Ecuador - Greece X (Friendly)
07/Jun Venezuela - Spain 2 (Friendly)
07/Jun Russia - Cameroon 1 (Friendly)
07/Jun Faroe Islands - Estonia 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Jun Australia - Serbia 1 (Friendly)
07/Jun Belarus - Luxembourg 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Jun Sweden - Finland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Jun Panama - Guadeloupe 1 (Continental Final)
07/Jun USA - Canada 1 (Continental Final)
07/Jun Korea Republic - Ghana 1 (Friendly)
07/Jun Bosnia-Herzegovina - Albania 1 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Jun San Marino - Hungary 2 (Continental Qualifier)
07/Jun Austria - Latvia 1 (Friendly)
07/Jun Italy - Republic of Ireland 1 (Friendly)
07/Jun Azerbaijan - Germany 2 (Continental Qualifier)
08/Jun Uruguay - Netherlands 2 (Friendly)
08/Jun China PR - Korea DPR 1 (Friendly)
09/Jun Poland - France X (Friendly)
09/Jun Costa Rica - El Salvador 1 (Continental Final)
09/Jun Cuba - Mexico 2 (Continental Final)
10/Jun Jamaica - Guatemala 1 (Continental Final)
10/Jun Grenada - Honduras 2 (Continental Final)
11/Jun Paraguay - Romania 1 (Friendly)
11/Jun Mexico - Venezuela 1 (Friendly)
11/Jun Canada - Guadeloupe 1 (Continental Final)
11/Jun USA - Panama 1 (Continental Final)
12/Jun El Salvador - Cuba X (Continental Final)
12/Jun Mexico - Costa Rica 1 (Continental Final)
13/Jun Guatemala - Grenada 1 (Continental Final)
13/Jun Honduras - Jamaica X (Continental Final)
14/Jun Canada - Panama X (Continental Final)
14/Jun USA - Guadeloupe 1 (Continental Final)
18/Jun Chile - Estonia 1 (Friendly)
18/Jun Malaysia - Myanmar 1 (Friendly)
18/Jun Costa Rica - Jamaica X Costa Rica PSO (Continental Final)
18/Jun Mexico - Canada 1 (Continental Final)
19/Jun Honduras - Panama 1 (Continental Final)
19/Jun USA - Guatemala 1 (Continental Final)
20/Jun Argentina - Albania 1 (Friendly)
22/Jun Uruguay - Estonia 1 (Friendly)
22/Jun Costa Rica - Mexico 2 (Continental Final)
22/Jun Honduras - USA 2 (Continental Final)
23/Jun Paraguay - Chile X (Friendly)
25/Jun Mexico - USA X Mexico PSO (Continental Final)

FIFA Ranking: June 2011 preview

Next update: June 3rd, 2011.

Most points dropped (best case scenario):

-251 - Brazil
-228 - Argentina
-146 - Chile
-140 - Ghana
-120 - Uruguay
-70 - Slovenia
-51 - Gambia
-49 - Guinea
-40 - Bermuda
-37 - Iraq and Serbia

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

47 - Montenegro
29 - Haiti and Suriname
22 - Egypt
21 - Trinidad and Tobago
15 - Cyprus, United Arab Emirates and Bolivia
9 - Tajikistan and Kuwait

May 2011 rank - Country - May 2011 points - Minimum points - Maximum points

1 Spain 1857 1811 1871
2 Netherlands 1702 1633 1716
3 Brazil 1425 1056 1174
4 Germany 1413 1269 1417
5 Argentina 1267 909 1039
6 England 1163 1097 1243
7 Uruguay 1094 844 974
8 Portugal 1052 904 1046
9 Italy 1019 974 1104
10 Croatia 991 925 1033
11 Norway 987 926 1116
12 Greece 985 913 984
13 Chile 967 720 821
14 Japan 961 902 969
15 Ghana 918 684 778
16 Serbia 907 782 870
17 Slovenia 903 785 833
18 Russia 896 808 940
19 France 883 815 981
20 Australia 876 794 852
21 Côte d'Ivoire 867 812 922
22 USA 855 568 1043
23 Paraguay 847 673 820
24 Montenegro 820 867 1011
25 Switzerland 819 724 886
26 Slovakia 809 742 779
27 Denmark 808 787 857
28 Mexico 802 578 1045
28 Sweden 802 709 884
30 Turkey 795 775 910
31 Korea Republic 754 717 787
32 Czech Republic 722 638 734
33 Israel 709 669 771
34 Republic of Ireland 681 579 752
35 Ukraine 678 590 669
36 Egypt 676 698 785
37 Belgium 654 648 776
38 South Africa 653 553 685
39 Nigeria 637 547 673
40 Senegal 613 572 712
41 Algeria 609 575 712
42 Romania 607 474 665
43 Honduras 603 535 844
44 Burkina Faso 600 605 661
45 Bosnia-Herzegovina 594 529 760
46 Bulgaria 592 550 697
47 Lithuania 577 526 631
48 Iran 575 578 578
49 Cameroon 572 521 741
50 Albania 564 524 699
50 Colombia 564 564 564
52 Hungary 559 548 603
53 Belarus 557 543 718
54 Peru 548 546 659
55 Jamaica 546 480 852
56 Costa Rica 541 472 829
57 Georgia 536 530 672
58 Libya 534 476 530
59 Gabon 529 535 535
60 New Zealand 528 345 526
61 Tunisia 527 457 527
62 Armenia 524 462 633
62 Guinea 524 418 475
64 Ecuador 523 434 550
65 Northern Ireland 520 498 573
66 Scotland 517 487 563
67 Panama 493 473 755
68 Venezuela 489 442 542
69 Botswana 479 432 496
70 Mali 451 416 484
71 Poland 449 429 516
72 Malawi 446 427 508
73 Morocco 445 347 494
74 Austria 443 442 626
75 Estonia 440 399 617
76 Canada 439 312 915
77 China PR 438 394 426
77 Latvia 438 388 569
79 Cape Verde Islands 421 397 443
80 Benin 418 380 573
81 Cuba 416 352 797
81 Finland 416 377 562
83 Uzbekistan 403 381 432
84 Uganda 402 394 417
85 FYR Macedonia 398 338 463
86 Moldova 394 383 527
87 El Salvador 391 328 746
88 Saudi Arabia 386 366 366
89 Cyprus 383 398 398
89 Iraq 383 346 346
89 Zambia 383 376 433
92 Qatar 380 355 355
93 Jordan 378 385 385
94 Mozambique 358 327 429
95 Trinidad and Tobago 353 374 374
96 Haiti 348 377 377
97 Bahrain 338 329 329
98 Grenada 337 269 669
99 Niger 335 331 407
100 Antigua and Barbuda 322 277 304
101 Kuwait 320 329 329
102 Bolivia 312 327 504
103 Gambia 308 257 257
104 Angola 295 267 329
104 Sudan 295 302 343
104 Syria 295 290 290
107 Oman 294 298 298
108 Azerbaijan 288 282 497
109 Togo 285 279 279
110 Guyana 284 247 277
111 United Arab Emirates 273 288 288
112 Suriname 267 296 296
113 Central African Republic 263 263 442
114 Wales 258 223 324
115 Korea DPR 255 255 273
116 Iceland 254 244 429
117 Tanzania 252 231 262
118 Sierra Leone 246 217 348
119 St. Kitts and Nevis 245 248 248
120 Thailand 242 239 239
121 Congo 232 206 445
122 Rwanda 228 189 236
123 Kenya 227 209 247
124 Guatemala 222 180 640
125 Luxembourg 221 213 354
126 Congo DR 219 209 238
126 Zimbabwe 219 212 380
128 Ethiopia 218 149 244
129 Yemen 203 199 199
130 Indonesia 200 195 195
131 Dominica 193 193 193
132 Barbados 180 159 227
132 Puerto Rico 180 167 167
134 Vietnam 172 159 159
135 Tajikistan 171 180 180
136 Faroe Islands 168 156 445
136 Guinea-Bissau 168 142 267
138 Madagascar 164 166 344
139 Kazakhstan 151 145 231
140 Namibia 150 117 285
141 Turkmenistan 149 147 147
142 Equatorial Guinea 146 131 131
143 Malaysia 144 130 154
144 Singapore 140 142 142
145 India 139 137 137
146 Hong Kong 138 134 155
147 Nepal 135 136 136
148 Maldives 133 126 126
149 Burundi 127 113 164
149 Chad 127 123 223
151 New Caledonia 123 97 97
152 Curacao 121 128 128
153 Liechtenstein 116 109 253
153 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 116 115 115
155 Fiji 103 103 103
156 Philippines 96 96 96
157 Liberia 93 76 232
158 Cayman Islands 90 90 90
159 Swaziland 89 76 195
160 Chinese Taipei 86 77 77
161 Malta 84 83 259
162 Bermuda 80 40 40
163 Bangladesh 79 81 81
164 Afghanistan 77 75 75
165 Vanuatu 76 64 64
166 Nicaragua 75 75 75
167 Myanmar 74 72 93
168 Pakistan 72 70 70
169 Kyrgyzstan 70 70 70
169 Sri Lanka 70 69 69
171 Palestine 67 72 72
172 Belize 66 64 64
172 Dominican Republic 66 66 66
174 Laos 57 57 57
174 Tahiti 57 57 57
176 Cambodia 56 57 57
176 Lesotho 56 46 46
178 Lebanon 51 55 55
179 Mongolia 48 41 41
180 Mauritania 45 32 32
181 Eritrea 42 29 29
182 Solomon Islands 40 40 40
183 British Virgin Islands 38 38 38
184 Macau 32 32 32
185 St. Lucia 31 31 31
186 Samoa 26 26 26
187 Somalia 23 23 23
188 Comoros 19 19 202
189 Mauritius 18 17 112
190 Cook Islands 17 10 10
190 Tonga 17 15 15
192 Djibouti 15 12 12
193 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 13 13
194 Seychelles 11 15 15
195 Guam 10 10 10
196 Bahamas 9 9 9
196 Bhutan 9 6 6
196 Brunei Darussalam 9 9 9
199 Aruba 7 7 7
200 Timor-Leste 3 3 3
200 US Virgin Islands 3 3 3
202 American Samoa 0 0 0
202 Andorra 0 0 163
202 Anguilla 0 0 0
202 Montserrat 0 0 0
202 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
202 San Marino 0 0 250