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Friday, July 29, 2011

I'm not very popular in Wales

BBC mentioned me again in one of their articles. The reaction in Wales was, well, not very benign.

Geek, mega-nerd, give him a smack, "I don't like you" and obviously the F-word salutation. :)

Apparently it's my fault Wales are in pot 6.

Couple of things to point out.

1. The newspapers said FIFA made an error. This is not 100% correct. We will never know if FIFA would have actually placed Wales in Pot 5.

2. I would have written similar articles if the situation would have been the other way around (i.e. Wales wrongly displayed below the Faroe Islands in the rankings).

3. I wrote to FAW on May 27 telling them they are in danger of falling in Pot 6. Actually, I wrote to all (yes, all) UEFA/CAF associations about the pots as soon as their team were locked in a pot.

4. Wales would have needed only a win against American Samoa in June or July in order to climb in Pot 5 at the expense of the Faroe Islands.

5. Wales could have asked me what they need to do to avoid Pot 6.

6. Who knows, maybe Wales and Faroe Islands will be in same group. Happened four years ago with Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein.

P.S. Something good came out of the BBC article. I got a job offer in London thanks to it. Won't be going though.

Mozambique ponder what could have been

Well, they don't actually ponder, I do :)

FIFA's schedule states the deadline for matches to be included in the ranking calculation is on the Thursday prior to the release date.

They usually include matches played after the deadline, especially competitive matches. However, last month they've also included a friendly played on Saturday, 25 June: Kenya - Sudan 1 - 2.

Liberia defeated Gambia on Sunday, 24 July, but FIFA chose not to include it in the July ranking calculation. If this match would have been included, Gambia would have dropped from Pot 3 to Pot 5 (and forced to play in Round 1), while Mozambique would have taken their place.

See the official CAF pots.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: Official pots

FIFA have published the official pot allocations for the 2014 FIFA World Cup preliminary draw.

Pot allocations for the Brazil 2014 Preliminary Draw (PDF file).

Panama protest

Panama FA (FEPAFUT) have published an official protest on their website:

Panamá protesta por el Ranking FIFA utilizado para sorteo del Mundial Brasil 2014

Also, read Julio Dely Valdés (Panama NT manager) take on this:

Es injusto para Panamá

As mentioned in this post, if the July ranking would have been used Jamaica, Panama, Antigua and Barbuda, Suriname would all climb one pot, while Honduras, Cuba, Haiti and Grenada would drop one pot.

OFC and sporting reasons

In Oceania, the four lowest-ranked Member Associations (based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola Ranking of July 2011, and for sporting reasons) will contest Round One.


Source: FIFA.com

The four lowest-ranked teams in OFC are: Tonga (192), Cook Islands (195), American Samoa (203) and Papua New Guinea (unranked). However, Papua New Guinea were given a bye to Round Two - being placed in second pot, at the expense at Samoa (7th in OFC).

Wikipedia says Round One will probably be staged by Samoa (no reference though) and probably that's what "sporting reasons" means.

Thanks Andrew Culshaw for pointing this out.

Namibia FA using info from my blog

I must be moving up in the world. Namibia FA used info from my blog recently. It would have been nice to also mention the source though.

See this article:

Namibia poised for favourable draw for 2014 World Cup

The pots are copied from this post:

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: CAF pots (8 July 2011)

Friday, July 22, 2011

2014 World Cup seeding: What if?

Wales' choice of not using the June FIFA match dates was a mistake. With a win against any team in the World (how about American Samoa - surely they would have flown to Cardiff in an instant) they would have been in Pot 5, above the Faroe Islands. Read more to see why.

Some teams could have climbed to a higher pot by scheduling and winning a friendly in June/July. In some cases a draw would have been enough.

Let's look at Europe first.

Team - Points needed to climb to a higher pot - Current pot


Switzerland 293.36 3
Israel 486.63 3
Bulgaria 309.42 4
Armenia 429.60 5
Wales 82.37 6
Iceland 282.88 6
Liechtenstein 378.29 6
Kazakhstan 531.97 6

Based on the May ranking (used for games played in June) and June ranking (used for games played in July) and choosing the weakest opponent (based on the Elo Rating), this is what the above table actually means:

Switzerland - a win against Mozambique (in June) or Central African Republic (in July).
Israel - a win against Slovakia.
Bulgaria - a win against Cuba (in June) or Zimbabwe (in July).
Armenia - a win against Algeria (in June) or Georgia (in July)
Wales - a win against American Samoa or a draw against Grenada (in June) or Suriname (in July).
Iceland - a win against Grenada (in June) or Sierra Leone (in July).
Liechtenstein - a win against Armenia.
Kazakhstan - a win against Slovenia.

On to Africa:

Team - Points needed to climb to a higher pot - Current pot


Gabon 398.45 2
Benin 241.39 3
Zimbabwe 347.11 3
Central African Republic 532.51 3
Mozambique 168.00 4
Liberia 481.71 4
Equatorial Guinea 65.65 5
Guinea-Bissau 140.59 5
Chad 165.89 5
Comoros 442.36 5
Lesotho 496.47 5
Swaziland 534.69 5
 
Based on the May ranking (used for games played in June) and June ranking (used for games played in July) and choosing the weakest opponent (based on the Elo Rating), this is what the above table actually means:

Gabon - a win against Algeria (in June)/Georgia (in July).
Benin - a win against Grenada (in June)/Sierra Leone (in July).
Zimbabwe - a win against Armenia.
Central African Republic - a win against Italy.
Mozambique - a win against Puerto Rico (in June) or Dominica (in July) or a draw against Slovenia (in June)/Montenegro (in July).
Liberia - a win against Slovakia (in June)/Slovenia (in July).
Equatorial Guinea - a win against American Samoa or a draw against Luxembourg.
Guinea-Bissau - a win against Puerto Rico or a draw against Lithuania (in June) or Belarus (in July).
Chad - a win against Puerto Rico (in June) or Dominica (in July) or a draw against Slovenia.
Comoros - a win against Slovakia (in June)/Belarus (in July).
Lesotho - a win against Slovenia.
Swaziland - a win against Uruguay (in June)/Italy (in July)

FIFA Ranking: July 2011 final preview

FIFA Ranking: July 2011 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 27th. The deadline for matches was yesterday, but I'm sure FIFA will include at least two more matches: the Copa America final (Uruguay - Paraguay) and 3rd place match (Peru - Venezuela).

This is how the totals can change for these two teams:

Uruguay (Loss: 1055, PSO Loss: 1089, PSO Win: 1122, Win: 1156)
Paraguay (Loss: 804, PSO Loss: 833, PSO Win: 862, Win: 891)
Peru (Loss: 726, PSO Loss: 756, PSO Win: 787, Win: 817)
Venezuela (Loss: 648, PSO Loss: 670, PSO Win: 691, Win: 713)

FIFA could also include the first leg of the AFC FIFA World Cup second preliminary round. However, I think that is unlikely.

In the table below, the values displayed for these two teams are the lowest possible - even if they lose their totals won't drop.

Papua New Guinea will disappear from the ranking - no matches in the last 4 years.

Uruguay climb 10 places (at least) and return to the top 10. With a win against Uruguay they will climb to 5th. Mexico drop out of the top 10, losing 11 places.

Best movers:

45 - Bahamas
44 - US Virgin Islands
40 - Dominican Republic

Worst movers:

-28 - Haiti
-21 - Canada
-16 - Nicaragua

Best movers in the top 50:

29 - Venezuela
19 - Colombia
16 - Chile

Peru and/or Paraguay could also join this list. Venezuela can still improve.

Worst movers in the top 50:

-11 - Mexico
-7 - Honduras
-6 - Jamaica

Mexico could drop one extra spot should Paraguay win the Copa America avoinding PSO.

Egypt replace Ghana as 2nd in Africa.

Costa Rica replace Panama as 5th in CONCACAF.

Uruguay replace Argentina as 2nd in CONMEBOL. Peru could climb in the top 5 with a win against Venezuela and a defeat for Paraguay against Uruguay in the Copa America final.

Solomon Islands replace Tahiti in OFC's top 5.

Portugal replace Italy as 5th in Europe.

Five teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Venezuela (40th - 47th in February 2010)
Central African Republic (89th - 91st in June 2011)
Belize (148th - 154th in June 2011)
US Virgin Islands (149th - 190th in April 1999)
Mongolia (162nd - 170th in November 2009)

Two teams will return to their best ever ranking:

Peru (34th - first achieved in September 1997)
Liechtenstein (118th - first achieved in January 2008)

Bermuda will return to their worst ever ranking, 185th, first happened in December 1998.

Ten teams will drop to their worst ever ranking:

Saudi Arabia (94th - 92nd in June 2011)
Canada (104th - 103rd in March 2007)
Malta (172nd - 169th in November 2010)
Sri Lanka (176th - 173rd in March 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (178th - 176th in November 2010)
Lebanon (182nd - 178th in April 2011)
Lesotho (184th - 178th in June 2011)
Mauritania (187th - 183rd in June 2011)
Mauritius (195th - 193rd in September 2010)
Seychelles (199th - 196th in October 2010)

July 2011 rank - Team - July 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1588 0 -283
2 Netherlands 1542 0 -119
3 Germany 1305 0 -112
4 Brazil 1202 1 72
5 England 1146 -1 0
6 Portugal 1076 1 30
7 Italy 1059 -1 0
8 Uruguay 1055 10 146
9 Croatia 1033 -1 0
10 Argentina 1013 0 34
11 Chile 973 16 191
12 Norway 972 -1 0
13 Greece 959 -1 0
14 Côte d'Ivoire 922 0 0
15 France 920 0 0
16 Japan 918 -3 -7
17 Montenegro 915 -1 0
18 Russia 914 -1 0
19 Sweden 884 0 0
20 Mexico 869 -11 -138
21 Denmark 857 -1 0
22 Slovenia 833 -1 0
23 Australia 831 -1 2
24 Turkey 820 -1 0
25 Paraguay 804 7 61
26 Serbia 797 -1 0
27 Korea Republic 781 -1 -6
28 Slovakia 779 0 0
29 Switzerland 778 0 0
29 USA 778 -5 -21
31 Israel 771 -1 0
32 Republic of Ireland 752 -1 0
33 Egypt 736 1 9
34 Peru 726 15 143
35 Colombia 707 19 143
36 Ghana 696 -3 -39
37 Belgium 691 -2 0
38 Czech Republic 670 -2 0
39 Burkina Faso 661 -2 0
40 Venezuela 648 29 177
41 Bosnia-Herzegovina 642 -2 0
42 Belarus 636 -2 0
43 Nigeria 635 -2 0
44 Jamaica 632 -6 -24
45 Ukraine 620 -3 0
46 Senegal 619 -3 0
47 Hungary 603 -2 0
48 Bulgaria 599 -2 0
49 South Africa 597 -2 0
50 Cameroon 595 -2 0
51 Honduras 592 -7 -21
52 Algeria 575 -1 0
53 Romania 571 0 0
54 Iran 560 -4 -18
55 Tunisia 553 2 26
56 Costa Rica 532 -1 -29
57 Georgia 530 -1 0
58 Lithuania 526 0 0
59 Albania 524 0 0
60 Gabon 517 0 0
61 Scotland 513 0 0
62 Northern Ireland 498 0 0
63 Libya 494 0 0
63 Morocco 494 0 0
65 Panama 487 -13 -87
66 Austria 479 -1 0
67 Ecuador 478 1 5
68 Guinea 475 -2 0
69 Poland 474 -2 0
70 Armenia 462 0 0
71 Botswana 440 3 9
72 Malawi 439 -1 -15
73 Zambia 436 -1 2
74 China PR 431 1 5
75 Finland 419 1 0
76 Uganda 417 1 0
77 Mali 416 1 0
78 El Salvador 401 -6 -33
79 Estonia 399 0 0
80 Bolivia 398 13 42
80 Cyprus 398 0 0
82 Cape Verde Islands 397 -1 0
83 Latvia 388 -1 0
84 Moldova 383 1 0
85 Uzbekistan 381 1 0
86 Benin 380 1 0
86 Zimbabwe 380 1 0
88 Trinidad and Tobago 379 2 5
89 Central African Republic 370 2 0
90 Qatar 359 4 4
91 Jordan 354 -7 -31
92 Sierra Leone 348 3 0
93 New Zealand 345 4 0
94 Saudi Arabia 342 -2 -24
95 FYR Macedonia 338 3 0
96 Kuwait 334 6 5
97 Sudan 333 2 0
98 Niger 331 2 0
99 Cuba 330 2 0
100 Angola 329 2 0
100 Bahrain 329 2 0
100 Gambia 329 2 0
103 Mozambique 327 3 0
104 Canada 314 -21 -73
105 Antigua and Barbuda 308 6 22
105 Syria 308 4 18
107 Suriname 296 1 0
108 Oman 294 -1 -4
109 Iraq 292 -13 -54
110 United Arab Emirates 285 0 -3
111 Azerbaijan 282 1 0
112 Faroe Islands 273 2 0
112 Wales 273 2 0
114 Guyana 269 2 2
115 Guatemala 260 3 -2
115 Korea DPR 260 4 5
117 Haiti 256 -28 -121
118 Liechtenstein 253 2 0
119 Grenada 246 -2 -19
120 Iceland 244 2 0
121 St. Kitts and Nevis 243 0 -5
122 Congo DR 238 2 0
122 Togo 238 -9 -41
124 Liberia 232 1 0
125 Kazakhstan 231 1 0
126 Tanzania 230 1 0
127 Thailand 226 -4 -13
128 Luxembourg 213 0 0
129 Congo 206 0 0
130 Kenya 204 0 0
131 Nepal 203 17 67
132 Dominican Republic 198 40 132
133 Dominica 193 0 0
133 Yemen 193 -2 -6
135 Rwanda 190 -1 1
136 Indonesia 182 -4 -13
137 Tajikistan 180 -2 0
138 Ethiopia 170 -2 0
138 Vietnam 170 2 11
140 Namibia 168 13 51
141 Puerto Rico 167 -4 0
142 Bangladesh 166 21 85
142 Singapore 166 0 11
144 Burundi 164 -5 0
145 Malaysia 162 -1 16
146 Barbados 156 -5 0
147 Turkmenistan 147 -4 0
148 Belize 146 6 34
149 Madagascar 144 -11 -22
149 US Virgin Islands 144 44 132
151 Guinea-Bissau 142 -6 0
152 Bahamas 141 45 132
152 Hong Kong 141 -6 0
154 India 138 -7 1
155 Equatorial Guinea 131 -6 0
156 Fiji 129 0 26
157 Curacao 128 -7 0
158 Chad 127 -6 4
159 Maldives 123 -8 -3
160 Philippines 112 -1 16
160 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 112 -6 0
162 Mongolia 105 17 64
162 Palestine 105 5 33
164 New Caledonia 104 -6 7
165 Myanmar 103 2 31
166 Chinese Taipei 96 -1 19
167 Aruba 95 33 88
168 Swaziland 93 -11 -8
168 Vanuatu 93 5 29
170 Pakistan 91 -1 21
171 Cayman Islands 90 -11 0
172 Malta 83 -11 0
173 Cambodia 81 1 24
173 Laos 81 1 24
175 Comoros 80 -11 0
176 Sri Lanka 79 -5 10
177 Nicaragua 75 -16 -8
178 Afghanistan 72 -12 -3
178 Kyrgyzstan 72 -9 2
180 Solomon Islands 70 0 30
181 Tahiti 57 -7 0
182 Lebanon 55 -5 0
183 St. Lucia 54 2 23
184 Lesotho 44 -6 -3
185 Bermuda 40 -5 0
186 British Virgin Islands 38 -4 0
187 Mauritania 32 -4 0
188 Eritrea 29 -2 0
189 Samoa 26 -2 0
190 Macau 25 -7 -7
191 Somalia 23 -3 0
192 Tonga 15 -2 0
193 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 -1 0
194 Djibouti 12 -1 0
195 Cook Islands 10 0 0
195 Guam 10 0 0
195 Mauritius 10 -6 -7
198 Brunei Darussalam 9 -1 0
199 Anguilla 7 -2 -2
199 Seychelles 7 -9 -8
201 Bhutan 6 0 0
202 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Andorra 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

FIFA fix the Faroe Islands/Wales error

Sort of...

As you perhaps know, when FIFA published the June 2011 ranking, Wales were displayed above Faroe Islands, although Wales have a smaller unrounded total.

Both teams are shown as 45th in Europe. This is sort of funny because as far as I know, FIFA have never done this before. See for instance the December 2008 FIFA Ranking.

France, Portugal, Czech Republic tied for 11th globally, but shown as 9th, 10th and 11th in Europe.

I do know the Latin alphabet and this is not the alphabetical order, as FIFA claim in a statement.

"The teams are tied in 114th place and have been placed in the list on Fifa.com in alphabetical order. This is simply the standard way of listing the teams which are tied.


We are not in a position to speculate on the potential difference of decimal points.


What we can confirm is that the change has been done on Fifa.com due to teams that are tied being listed in alphabetical order. Other teams were also tied and not listed in alphabetical order, something which has now been corrected."


The statement is taken from this BBC article. Thanks John Sinnott - this is the first time I'm mentioned on BBC :)

Congratulations to Jákup Emil Hansen and Rólant Waag Dam. Jákup made the headlines recently in The Telegraph (here and here) and it seems Rólant's articles (couldn't find one now) have pressured the Faroese FA into contacting FIFA about this matter. Even had a short radio interview with Rólant two weeks ago - that was very unexpected.

Speaking of the Faroese FA, I even got a "Thank you" e-mail from Virgar Hvidbro, FAF's general secretary. :)

Friday, July 8, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: CAF pots (8 July 2011)

Congratulations Namibia! They got the three points against Malawi and have jumped to the fourth pot (first pot in the preliminary round draw) at the expense of Guinea-Bissau.

Only one match remaining: Iran - Madagascar, but Madagascar are locked in the fourth pot, so this is the final version.

The pots look like this:

Preliminary round:

Pot 1: Mozambique, Congo DR, Togo, Liberia, Tanzania, Kenya, Congo, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Burundi, Madagascar, Namibia
Pot 2: Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Swaziland, Comoros, Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sao Tome e Principe

Group stage draw:

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Algeria, Tunisia
Pot 2: Gabon, Libya, Morocco, Guinea, Malawi, Botswana, Zambia, Uganda, Mali, Cape Verde Islands
Pot 3: Benin, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Niger, Gambia, Angola

The winners of the first two match-ups from the preliminary round (in the order of the draw) will be placed in Pot 3. The other winners will be placed in Pot 4.

Here's the July 2011 FIFA ranking for CAF teams participating in the 2014 FIFA World Cup preliminaries:

Rank - Team - Points
 1 Côte d'Ivoire            922
 2 Egypt                    738
 3 Ghana                    696
 4 Burkina Faso             661
 5 Nigeria                  635
 6 Senegal                  619
 7 South Africa             597
 8 Cameroon                 595
 9 Algeria                  575
10 Tunisia                  553
-------------------------------
11 Gabon                    517
12 Libya                    494
12 Morocco                  494
14 Guinea                   474
15 Botswana                 440
16 Malawi                   439
17 Zambia                   436
18 Uganda                   417
19 Mali                     416
20 Cape Verde Islands       397
-------------------------------
21 Benin                    380
21 Zimbabwe                 380
23 Central African Republic 370
24 Sierra Leone             348
25 Sudan                    333
26 Niger                    331
27 Gambia                   329
27 Angola                   329
-------------------------------
29 Mozambique               327
30 Congo DR                 240
31 Togo                     238
32 Liberia                  233
33 Tanzania                 231
34 Congo                    206
35 Kenya                    204
36 Rwanda                   190
37 Ethiopia                 169
38 Namibia                  168
39 Burundi                  164
40 Madagascar               144
-------------------------------
41 Guinea-Bissau            142
42 Equatorial Guinea        131
43 Chad                     127
44 Swaziland                 93
45 Comoros                   80
46 Lesotho                   44
47 Eritrea                   29
48 Somalia                   23
49 Djibouti                  12
50 Mauritius                 10
51 Seychelles                 7
52 Sao Tome e Principe        0

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (8 July 2011)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumption: Indonesia will somehow avoid being suspended by FIFA.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (8 July 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (8 July 2011)

Kuwait's chances for Pot 2 have improved by 24.71% after their friendly results, but they are still outsiders. Bahrain are no longer safe in Pot 2.

No changes in the pots.

Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan 

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (8 July 2011)

Japan: 100.00% in Pot 1
Australia: 100.00% in Pot 1
Korea Republic: 100.00% in Pot 1
China PR: 99.93% in Pot 1, 0.07% eliminated in QR2
Iran: 99.54% in Pot 1, 0.46% eliminated in QR2
Uzbekistan: 97.02% in Pot 2, 2.46% eliminated in QR2, 0.52% in Pot 1
Qatar: 90.61% in Pot 2, 9.38% eliminated in QR2, 0.01% in Pot 1
Jordan: 98.97% in Pot 2, 1.03% eliminated in QR2
Saudi Arabia: 94.56% in Pot 2, 5.44% eliminated in QR2
Bahrain: 75.27% in Pot 2, 24.73% in Pot 3
Kuwait: 56.80% in Pot 3, 42.19% in Pot 2, 1.01% eliminated in QR2
Syria: 85.38% in Pot 3, 13.80% eliminated in QR2, 0.82% in Pot 2
Iraq: 90.72% in Pot 3, 8.95% eliminated in QR2, 0.33% in Pot 2
Oman: 98.63% in Pot 3, 1.14% eliminated in QR2, 0.23% in Pot 2
United Arab Emirates: 86.18% in Pot 3, 13.82% eliminated in QR2
Korea DPR: 54.56% in Pot 4, 45.44% in Pot 3
Thailand: 74.78% in Pot 4, 16.13% eliminated in QR2, 9.09% in Pot 3
Yemen: 91.05% eliminated in QR2, 7.87% in Pot 4, 1.08% in Pot 3
Tajikistan: 86.20% eliminated in QR2, 13.02% in Pot 4, 0.78% in Pot 3
Indonesia: 61.13% eliminated in QR2, 38.19% in Pot 4, 0.68% in Pot 3
Vietnam: 90.62% eliminated in QR2, 9.14% in Pot 4, 0.24% in Pot 3
Nepal: 98.97% eliminated in QR2, 0.88% in Pot 4, 0.15% in Pot 3
Singapore: 62.61% in Pot 4, 37.32% eliminated in QR2, 0.07% in Pot 3
Malaysia: 62.68% eliminated in QR2, 37.29% in Pot 4, 0.03% in Pot 3
Lebanon: 87.04% in Pot 4, 12.96% eliminated in QR2
Turkmenistan: 61.13% in Pot 4, 38.87% eliminated in QR2
Palestine: 83.87% eliminated in QR2, 16.13% in Pot 4
India: 86.18% eliminated in QR2, 13.82% in Pot 4
Bangladesh: 87.04% eliminated in QR2, 12.96% in Pot 4
Hong Kong: 94.56% eliminated in QR2, 5.44% in Pot 4
Kyrgyzstan: 97.54% eliminated in QR2, 2.46% in Pot 4
Myanmar: 98.86% eliminated in QR2, 1.14% in Pot 4
Philippines: 98.99% eliminated in QR2, 1.01% in Pot 4
Maldives: 99.54% eliminated in QR2, 0.46% in Pot 4
Laos: 99.93% eliminated in QR2, 0.07% in Pot 4

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (8 July 2011)

Pot 1

100.00% - Japan
100.00% - Australia
100.00% - Korea Republic
99.93% - China PR
99.54% - Iran
0.52% - Uzbekistan
0.01% - Qatar

Pot 2

98.97% - Jordan
97.02% - Uzbekistan
94.56% - Saudi Arabia
90.61% - Qatar
75.27% - Bahrain
42.19% - Kuwait
0.82% - Syria
0.33% - Iraq
0.23% - Oman

Pot 3

98.63% - Oman
90.72% - Iraq
86.18% - United Arab Emirates
85.38% - Syria
56.80% - Kuwait
45.44% - Korea DPR
24.73% - Bahrain
9.09% - Thailand
1.08% - Yemen
0.78% - Tajikistan
0.68% - Indonesia
0.24% - Vietnam
0.15% - Nepal
0.07% - Singapore
0.03% - Malaysia

Pot 4

87.04% - Lebanon
74.78% - Thailand
62.61% - Singapore
61.13% - Turkmenistan
54.56% - Korea DPR
38.19% - Indonesia
37.29% - Malaysia
16.13% - Palestine
13.82% - India
13.02% - Tajikistan
12.96% - Bangladesh
9.14% - Vietnam
7.87% - Yemen
5.44% - Hong Kong
2.46% - Kyrgyzstan
1.14% - Myanmar
1.01% - Philippines
0.88% - Nepal
0.46% - Maldives
0.07% - Laos

Eliminated in the second round

99.93% - Laos
99.54% - Maldives
98.99% - Philippines
98.97% - Nepal
98.86% - Myanmar
97.54% - Kyrgyzstan
94.56% - Hong Kong
91.05% - Yemen
90.62% - Vietnam
87.04% - Bangladesh
86.20% - Tajikistan
86.18% - India
83.87% - Palestine
62.68% - Malaysia
61.13% - Indonesia
38.87% - Turkmenistan
37.32% - Singapore
16.13% - Thailand
13.82% - United Arab Emirates
13.80% - Syria
12.96% - Lebanon
9.38% - Qatar
8.95% - Iraq
5.44% - Saudi Arabia
2.46% - Uzbekistan
1.14% - Oman
1.03% - Jordan
1.01% - Kuwait
0.46% - Iran
0.07% - China PR

June 2011: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Solomon Islands 180 116 64
Fiji 156 113 43
Vanuatu 173 133 40
Papua New Guinea 203 164 39
Wales 114 77 37
Iraq 96 60 36
Ecuador 68 35 33
Venezuela 69 36 33
New Zealand 97 64 33
Oman 107 75 32

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Algeria 51 93 -42
Puerto Rico 137 176 -39
Luxembourg 128 166 -38
Faroe Islands 114 148 -34
Dominica 133 167 -34
Sierra Leone 95 128 -33
Liechtenstein 120 153 -33
St. Kitts and Nevis 121 154 -33
Armenia 70 102 -32
Suriname 108 139 -31

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Ecuador 68 35 33
Venezuela 69 36 33
China PR 75 46 29
Colombia 54 26 28
Poland 67 44 23
Chile 27 8 19
Iran 50 32 18
Scotland 61 45 16
Ukraine 42 27 15
Romania 53 38 15

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Burkina Faso 37 67 -30
Slovakia 28 57 -29
Montenegro 16 40 -24
Slovenia 21 43 -22
Greece 12 31 -19
Belarus 40 58 -18
Bosnia-Herzegovina 39 56 -17
Belgium 35 49 -14
Norway 11 23 -12
Senegal 43 54 -11

Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:

Ecuador - Slovakia
Venezuela - Montenegro
China PR - Algeria
Colombia - Slovenia
Poland - Burkina Faso
Chile - Greece
Iran - Belarus
Scotland - Albania
Ukraine - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Romania - Georgia

Friday, July 1, 2011

FIFA Ranking: July 2011 probable ranking

Next update: July 15th, 2011.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Papua New Guinea will no longer be listed in the July ranking.

Probable July 2011 rank - Team - Probable July 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1588 0 -283
2 Netherlands 1542 0 -119
3 Brazil 1494 2 364
4 Germany 1305 -1 -112
5 Argentina 1225 5 246
6 England 1146 -2 0
7 Chile 1085 20 303
8 Portugal 1076 -1 30
9 Uruguay 1071 9 162
10 Italy 1059 -4 0
11 Croatia 1033 -3 0
12 Norway 972 -1 0
13 Greece 959 -1 0
14 Côte d'Ivoire 922 0 0
15 France 920 0 0
16 Japan 918 -3 -7
17 Montenegro 915 -1 0
18 Russia 914 -1 0
19 Mexico 911 -10 -96
20 Sweden 884 -1 0
21 Denmark 857 -1 0
22 Slovenia 833 -1 0
23 Australia 831 -1 2
24 Turkey 820 -1 0
25 Serbia 797 0 0
26 Korea Republic 781 0 -6
27 Slovakia 779 1 0
28 Switzerland 778 1 0
28 USA 778 -4 -21
30 Israel 771 0 0
31 Republic of Ireland 752 0 0
32 Egypt 736 2 9
33 Ghana 696 0 -39
34 Paraguay 692 -2 -51
35 Belgium 691 0 0
36 Czech Republic 670 0 0
37 Colombia 663 17 99
38 Burkina Faso 661 -1 0
39 Bosnia-Herzegovina 642 0 0
40 Belarus 636 0 0
41 Nigeria 635 0 0
42 Jamaica 632 -4 -24
43 Ukraine 620 -1 0
44 Senegal 619 -1 0
45 Hungary 603 0 0
46 Bulgaria 599 0 0
47 South Africa 597 0 0
48 Cameroon 595 0 0
49 Honduras 592 -5 -21
50 Algeria 575 1 0
51 Romania 571 2 0
52 Iran 560 -2 -18
53 Tunisia 553 4 26
54 Georgia 530 2 0
55 Peru 529 -6 -54
56 Lithuania 526 2 0
57 Albania 524 2 0
58 Gabon 517 2 0
59 Scotland 513 2 0
60 Ecuador 504 8 31
61 Northern Ireland 498 1 0
62 Libya 494 1 0
62 Morocco 494 1 0
64 Venezuela 489 5 18
65 Panama 487 -13 -87
66 Costa Rica 486 -11 -75
67 Austria 479 -2 0
68 Guinea 475 -2 0
69 Poland 474 -2 0
70 Armenia 462 0 0
71 Bolivia 453 22 97
72 Malawi 450 -1 -4
73 Botswana 440 1 9
74 Zambia 436 -2 2
75 China PR 431 0 5
76 Finland 419 0 0
77 Uganda 417 0 0
78 Mali 416 0 0
79 El Salvador 401 -7 -33
80 Estonia 399 -1 0
81 Cyprus 398 -1 0
82 Cape Verde Islands 397 -1 0
83 Latvia 388 -1 0
84 Moldova 383 1 0
85 Uzbekistan 381 1 0
86 Benin 380 1 0
86 Zimbabwe 380 1 0
88 Trinidad and Tobago 379 2 5
89 Jordan 374 -5 -11
90 Central African Republic 370 1 0
91 Qatar 355 3 0
92 Sierra Leone 348 3 0
93 New Zealand 345 4 0
94 Saudi Arabia 343 -2 -23
95 FYR Macedonia 338 3 0
96 Sudan 333 3 0
97 Kuwait 331 5 2
97 Niger 331 3 0
99 Cuba 330 2 0
100 Angola 329 2 0
100 Bahrain 329 2 0
100 Gambia 329 2 0
103 Mozambique 327 3 0
104 Canada 314 -21 -73
105 Antigua and Barbuda 308 6 22
105 Syria 308 4 18
107 Iraq 303 -11 -43
108 Suriname 296 0 0
109 United Arab Emirates 285 1 -3
110 Oman 284 -3 -14
111 Azerbaijan 282 1 0
112 Faroe Islands 273 2 0
112 Wales 273 2 0
114 Guyana 269 2 2
115 Guatemala 260 3 -2
115 Korea DPR 260 4 5
117 Haiti 256 -28 -121
118 Liechtenstein 253 2 0
119 Grenada 246 -2 -19
120 Iceland 244 2 0
121 St. Kitts and Nevis 243 0 -5
122 Congo DR 238 2 0
122 Togo 238 -9 -41
124 Liberia 232 1 0
125 Kazakhstan 231 1 0
126 Tanzania 230 1 0
126 Thailand 230 -3 -9
128 Luxembourg 213 0 0
129 Congo 206 0 0
130 Kenya 204 0 0
131 Nepal 203 17 67
132 Yemen 199 -1 0
133 Dominican Republic 198 39 132
134 Dominica 193 -1 0
135 Rwanda 190 -1 1
136 Malaysia 186 8 40
137 Indonesia 182 -5 -13
138 Tajikistan 180 -3 0
139 Ethiopia 170 -3 0
139 Vietnam 170 1 11
141 Puerto Rico 167 -4 0
142 Bangladesh 166 21 85
142 Singapore 166 0 11
144 Burundi 164 -5 0
145 Barbados 156 -4 0
146 Turkmenistan 147 -3 0
147 Madagascar 144 -9 -22
148 Guinea-Bissau 142 -3 0
149 Hong Kong 141 -3 0
150 India 135 -3 -2
151 Equatorial Guinea 131 -2 0
152 Curacao 128 -2 0
152 Palestine 128 15 56
154 Chad 127 -2 4
155 British Virgin Islands 126 27 88
156 Maldives 123 -5 -3
157 Namibia 120 -4 3
158 Belize 112 -4 0
158 Philippines 112 1 16
158 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 112 -4 0
161 Mongolia 105 18 64
161 Myanmar 105 6 33
163 New Caledonia 104 -5 7
164 Fiji 103 -8 0
165 Bahamas 97 32 88
166 Swaziland 93 -9 -8
167 Pakistan 91 2 21
168 Cayman Islands 90 -8 0
169 Solomon Islands 87 11 47
170 Malta 83 -9 0
171 St. Lucia 82 14 51
172 Cambodia 81 2 24
173 Comoros 80 -9 0
174 Sri Lanka 79 -3 10
175 Laos 75 -1 18
175 Nicaragua 75 -14 -8
177 Kyrgyzstan 72 -8 2
178 Chinese Taipei 69 -13 -8
179 Afghanistan 59 -13 -16
179 Vanuatu 59 -6 -5
181 Tahiti 57 -7 0
182 Lebanon 55 -5 0
183 Lesotho 44 -5 -3
184 Bermuda 40 -4 0
185 Turks and Caicos Islands 35 7 22
186 US Virgin Islands 34 7 22
187 Mauritania 32 -4 0
188 Aruba 29 12 22
188 Eritrea 29 -2 0
190 Samoa 26 -3 0
191 Macau 25 -8 -7
192 Somalia 23 -4 0
193 Tonga 15 -3 0
194 Djibouti 12 -1 0
195 Cook Islands 10 0 0
195 Guam 10 0 0
195 Mauritius 10 -6 -7
198 Brunei Darussalam 9 -1 0
199 Anguilla 7 -2 -2
199 Seychelles 7 -9 -8
201 Bhutan 6 0 0
202 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Andorra 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0