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Friday, February 3, 2012

FIFA Ranking: February 2012 probable ranking (II)

Next update: 10 February 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 15 February.

Only 10 teams still have matches to play. For the others, their points are already set.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. Here's the list of results:

04/Feb Zambia - Sudan 1 (Continental Final)
04/Feb Côte d'Ivoire - Equatorial Guinea 1 (Continental Final)
05/Feb Gabon - Mali 1 (Continental Final)
05/Feb Ghana - Tunisia 1 (Continental Final)
08/Feb Zambia - Ghana 2 (Continental Final)
08/Feb Gabon - Côte d'Ivoire 2 (Continental Final)
11/Feb Myanmar - Thailand 2 (Friendly)
11/Feb Zambia - Gabon X Zambia PSO (Continental Final)
12/Feb Ghana - Côte d'Ivoire X Côte d'Ivoire PSO (Continental Final)

This is how the totals can change for the teams that still have matches to play:

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Lowest rank - Highest rank


Côte d'Ivoire 861 1039 22 12
Ghana 795 980 24 14
Gabon 589 815 50 23
Tunisia 573 772 56 30
Mali 513 766 66 30
Zambia 464 662 74 40
Equatorial Guinea 305 534 111 62
Sudan 302 434 111 82
Thailand 235 244 136 131
Myanmar 95 113 175 168

In the table below, the totals for these teams are the probable totals based on the probable results listed above.

Lots of movement in the top 10:

- Germany will overtake the Netherlands for 2nd in the ranking.
- Portugal will overtake Brazil
- Italy will overtake Croatia
- Denmark will overtake Argentina

Australia will overtake Japan at the top of AFC.

El Salvador will overtake Honduras and Costa Rica, climbing to 5th in CONCACAF.

Turks and Caicos Islands will join the group of teams with 0 points.

Gabon and Equatorial Guinea to climb 40 or more places.

Sao Tome e Principe will climb 28 places.

Senegal and Egypt will fall 24 and 23 places respectively. Egypt will drop to a new worst ranking (59th or lower). Their previous low was 44th in July 2002. Obviously this will put both teams out of the African top 5. Algeria, not qualified for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations might keep their 3rd place in Africa. Funny how the FIFA rankings work sometimes.

Niger, Japan, Uzbekistan, Cape Verde Islands and Botswana to fall 10 or more places.

Libya, El Salvador and Sao Tome e Principe will improve their best ever rankings.

Côte d'Ivoire and Armenia could also improve their best ever rankings, but that depends on their results (in the case of the Ivorians) and other teams' results (for the Armenians).

Cyprus, Solomons Islands and Eritrea will return their worst ever rankings.

Egypt, Cameroon, Bulgaria, Barbados, Sri Lanka, Kyrgyzstan and Turks and Caicos Islands will drop to their new worst rankings.

Myanmar could also drop to a new low if they lose against Thailand.


Probable February 2012 rank - Team - Probable February 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1566 0 2
2 Germany 1369 1 24
3 Netherlands 1359 -1 -6
4 Uruguay 1317 0 8
5 England 1179 0 6
6 Portugal 1155 1 55
7 Brazil 1152 -1 9
8 Italy 1115 1 33
9 Croatia 1101 -1 10
10 Denmark 1090 1 58
11 Argentina 1081 -1 14
12 Chile 996 0 23
13 Côte d'Ivoire 995 5 106
14 Russia 989 -1 18
15 Greece 979 -1 15
16 Switzerland 950 0 52
17 France 930 -2 15
18 Sweden 924 -1 33
19 Bosnia-Herzegovina 920 0 51
20 Ghana 917 6 138
21 Republic of Ireland 893 2 29
22 Mexico 882 -1 16
23 Australia 832 -2 -34
24 Norway 793 0 5
25 Serbia 791 2 16
25 Turkey 791 4 22
27 Paraguay 781 0 6
27 Slovenia 781 -2 1
29 Czech Republic 775 2 26
30 Japan 762 -11 -107
31 USA 750 2 29
32 Colombia 746 3 37
33 Peru 743 1 31
34 Korea Republic 714 -4 -38
35 Israel 708 2 43
36 Algeria 684 -4 -50
37 Hungary 678 0 13
38 Slovakia 675 1 27
39 Belgium 663 1 16
40 Ecuador 644 2 10
41 Gabon 642 50 255
42 Armenia 639 3 27
43 Wales 635 6 44
44 Venezuela 615 -3 -27
45 Iran 606 -1 -17
46 Scotland 602 2 3
47 Panama 594 0 -6
48 Jamaica 589 4 16
49 Montenegro 585 1 0
50 Romania 583 5 21
51 Libya 581 12 67
52 El Salvador 576 12 70
52 Estonia 576 0 3
54 Nigeria 573 -9 -39
54 Tunisia 573 5 32
56 South Africa 559 0 8
57 Honduras 549 -6 -30
57 Ukraine 549 -3 -19
59 Egypt 545 -23 -153
60 Morocco 543 1 20
61 Costa Rica 539 1 17
62 Sierra Leone 533 -2 0
63 Mali 522 6 46
64 Guinea 517 15 81
65 Zambia 515 6 56
66 Cameroon 502 -10 -49
67 Belarus 494 -2 -7
68 Senegal 490 -25 -135
69 Cape Verde Islands 477 -11 -72
70 Poland 470 -2 -24
71 Austria 469 0 10
71 Canada 469 3 14
71 Haiti 469 9 36
74 Latvia 463 -4 -3
75 Burkina Faso 462 -9 -37
76 China PR 456 -2 1
77 Uzbekistan 455 -10 -40
78 Albania 452 -1 2
79 Finland 439 6 34
79 Iraq 439 -6 -18
81 Georgia 436 -5 -15
82 Jordan 431 -1 5
83 Angola 424 2 19
84 Guatemala 422 5 22
85 Trinidad and Tobago 417 -7 -31
86 Northern Ireland 412 1 9
87 Uganda 411 -5 0
88 Bulgaria 408 -5 -2
89 Saudi Arabia 407 -2 4
90 Antigua and Barbuda 405 -6 -2
91 Kuwait 399 4 27
92 Guyana 388 0 2
93 Lithuania 383 0 1
94 Togo 380 6 30
95 Oman 377 -5 -16
96 Qatar 372 1 8
97 Bahrain 366 -2 -6
98 Malawi 362 1 3
99 Zimbabwe 348 3 7
100 Vietnam 347 1 3
101 FYR Macedonia 345 2 10
102 Mozambique 332 3 13
103 Iceland 330 1 5
104 Botswana 328 -10 -45
105 Bermuda 321 1 7
106 Korea DPR 314 1 2
107 Bolivia 309 2 0
108 Rwanda 308 2 4
109 Azerbaijan 306 2 6
110 Equatorial Guinea 305 41 158
111 Niger 302 -13 -59
111 Sudan 302 9 37
113 Puerto Rico 301 -5 -9
114 Lebanon 299 -2 6
115 Gambia 292 3 21
116 Cuba 290 -3 0
117 St. Kitts and Nevis 287 -3 2
118 Faroe Islands 285 -4 0
119 Congo DR 279 -3 3
120 Namibia 271 2 12
120 New Zealand 271 -2 0
122 Syria 270 -5 -5
123 Kenya 267 -2 7
124 Liechtenstein 263 6 17
125 Liberia 258 -2 0
126 Suriname 254 -1 0
127 Cyprus 252 -1 -1
128 Central African Republic 251 0 0
129 Dominican Republic 247 0 0
130 Congo 245 1 0
131 Thailand 244 -7 -13
132 United Arab Emirates 243 6 20
133 Grenada 240 -1 -1
133 Luxembourg 240 -6 -12
135 Belize 238 -2 8
136 Benin 237 0 9
137 Ethiopia 230 -4 0
138 Kazakhstan 225 1 5
139 Tanzania 224 -2 -1
140 Tajikistan 218 0 0
141 Chad 207 1 19
142 Moldova 205 -7 -24
143 Burundi 199 -2 0
144 Nicaragua 189 1 24
145 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 172 -1 1
146 Indonesia 161 -3 -22
147 Yemen 159 2 6
148 Singapore 155 -1 -6
149 Turkmenistan 154 -3 -10
150 Malaysia 153 -2 -4
151 Samoa 149 -1 0
152 Nepal 144 1 0
153 Curacao 142 -1 -4
154 Bahamas 141 1 0
154 India 141 4 3
156 Philippines 139 1 0
157 Bangladesh 138 1 0
158 Madagascar 135 2 0
159 Fiji 133 2 0
159 Malta 133 -3 -7
161 Lesotho 131 -8 -13
162 Palestine 128 0 7
163 Hong Kong 126 5 17
163 New Caledonia 126 3 10
165 Aruba 120 -1 0
166 Chinese Taipei 116 1 6
166 Guinea-Bissau 116 -4 -5
168 Sao Tome e Principe 113 28 86
169 Barbados 107 -4 -12
170 Mongolia 106 -1 0
171 Laos 105 3 9
172 Cambodia 104 -2 3
173 Vanuatu 103 1 7
174 Maldives 98 -1 0
175 Dominica 95 -4 -5
175 Myanmar 95 -3 -4
177 Tonga 88 -1 0
178 Afghanistan 85 -1 0
179 Swaziland 83 1 8
180 US Virgin Islands 82 -2 0
181 Pakistan 76 -2 0
182 Solomon Islands 75 -2 0
182 Sri Lanka 75 -2 0
184 Tahiti 73 0 0
185 Cayman Islands 72 -2 -2
186 St. Lucia 65 -1 0
187 American Samoa 61 -1 0
188 Comoros 55 -1 0
189 Seychelles 53 -1 0
190 Eritrea 45 -1 0
191 Somalia 43 -1 0
192 Kyrgyzstan 42 -1 0
193 Guam 36 -1 0
194 Papua New Guinea 34 -1 0
195 Mauritius 32 -1 0
196 Macau 29 1 3
197 Cook Islands 28 -2 0
198 British Virgin Islands 23 0 0
198 Djibouti 23 0 0
200 Anguilla 9 1 0
201 Bhutan 6 1 0
201 Brunei Darussalam 6 1 0
203 Mauritania 4 1 0
204 Timor-Leste 2 1 0
205 Andorra 0 1 0
205 Montserrat 0 1 0
205 San Marino 0 1 0
205 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 -5 -13

14 comments:

  1. Hi Edgar. You have Sweden at 930 points, but according to FIFA, it will be 924 points. Sweden played Qatar in late January, which not seem to be oficial. What is the right point and why was the match not oficial? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  2. @Anonymous

    I was in a hurry. All the columns were correct, except the points :)

    Sweden had 930 points (+33), but last month they had 891 points.

    It's fixed now.

    Are you BK by any chance?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Edgar, Bertil Kristoffer, that´s me.

      Delete
  3. Sweden played Qatar Olympic NT

    ReplyDelete
  4. I predict there will be Egyptians commenting on the FIFA Rankings article when the new ranking is published saying this is FIFA punishing Egypt for that bloodbath...

    The real reason for the steep drop is of course (I expect) the combined consequences of the 2008 ACON dropping off the rankings entirely, the 2010 ACON devaluing and African nations picking up points at a competiton Egypt aren't a part off.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hello Edager
    how are u my freind?
    yes u were hurry !!

    u put Libya 583 points i think the mistake from me now every think is ok

    LIBYA may be the 2nd in arab and 5 in Africa and mabey will be in the best 50 soon

    Husssein Budejaja (LIBYA)

    ReplyDelete
  6. @Edgar: regarding your posting above"Algeria, not qualified for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations might keep their 3rd place in Africa. Funny how the FIFA rankings work sometimes". I think it is logic and it is normal to keep algeria as top 5. The reason because in the current CAF continental final,the major achievments coming by the low ranking teams. While the middle& high ranking team were knocked out early in final or even in qualification:Egypt,Cameroon,South Africa,Nigeria,Morocco,Senegal,...etc. Tarek

    ReplyDelete
  7. I'll also jump in for Algeria. I can point out they still qualified for the World Cup, and only 5 African teams can do that per cycle. In addition, only one advanced out of the group, and Algeria's draw against my England will have been very valuable at X4 ranking points.

    They also reached the semi finals of the last ACON. After Ghana and Ivory Coast there isn't really anyone else there who's done anything consistent like that. Nigeria and Cameroon, the other two World Cup teams, also failed to qualify. Nigeria lost all three matches, while Cameroon collected 1pt, but agaist the much lower ranked South Korea. So Algeria surpassed them. Algeria And of course South Africa, who weren't even at the last ACON, or this one. Algeria surpassed Cameroon the last ACON, as they went out in the quarters, but Nigeria got third. That makes them about equal, but the last ACON will be devalued while the World Cup will not be, so advantage Algeria.

    So Algeria merit their 3rd place for me. Especially with Ghana and Ivory Coast cutting down the competition at this year's ACON and so many favourites going out in pre-qualifying.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I have nothing against Algeria. I wrote that remark because I know Algerians were worried about falling in the African pecking order after the AFCON and, over the time, I saw plenty of comments like: "What are Team X doing so high? They didn't play at the final tournament of some competition!"

    ReplyDelete
  9. @ Edgar

    I know you have nothing against them, but I thought you were saying they didn't deserve their ranking. And you certainly didn't defend it. And I know you favour ELO over FIFA, and the difference between Algeria in FIFA and ELO is vast. 89th in the World and 17th in Africa...

    ReplyDelete
  10. @Edgar: In fact, when I mentioned my note on "Algeria", I was defending FIFA RAnking System, which I found is close to the facts and better than old version. May be we can support some teams, but there are facts and figures no body can say "no". So I'm supporting FIFA Ranking System and my Team "Jordan" :-) Tarek

    ReplyDelete
  11. Dont mislead teams by overranking them, Cote divoire is not Hot a team as you put it,also Ghana. This can be seen from their performance at AFCON 2012.Rather you do atotal re-rank based on AFCON 2012.Then let the teams work their way up again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As I said before - I just apply FIFA's formula. It's not based on my personal opinion.

      Delete