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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

FIFA Ranking: March 2012 probable ranking

Next update: 2 March 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 March. The March edition will be used to seed the AFC teams for the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers final group stage draw, schedule for 9 March.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results...

Benin, New Zealand, United Arab Emirates and Gambia will climb 10 or more spots.

Turkmenistan, Iceland, Puerto Rico and Liberia will drop 10 or more spots.

Belize, Aruba, Sao Tome e Principe will improve their best ever rankings.

Romania, Cameroon, Poland, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Barbados, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Macau will drop lower than their worst ever rankings.

Probable March 2012 rank - Team - Probable March 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
  
1 Spain 1561 0 -5
2 Germany 1374 0 5
3 Netherlands 1344 0 -15
4 Uruguay 1306 0 -11
5 Brazil 1157 2 5
6 England 1143 -1 -36
7 Portugal 1132 -1 -23
8 Italy 1101 0 -14
9 Croatia 1099 0 -2
10 Argentina 1084 1 3
11 Denmark 1081 -1 -9
12 Greece 980 2 1
13 Chile 978 -1 -18
14 Côte d'Ivoire 974 1 7
15 Russia 951 -2 -38
16 Switzerland 912 0 -38
17 Republic of Ireland 896 3 3
18 France 892 -1 -38
19 Sweden 879 -1 -45
20 Mexico 873 1 -9
21 Australia 868 1 36
22 Bosnia-Herzegovina 850 -3 -70
23 Japan 812 7 50
24 Ghana 809 -1 -10
25 Norway 797 -1 4
26 Turkey 796 -1 5
27 Serbia 791 -2 0
28 Paraguay 775 -1 -6
29 Slovenia 765 -2 -16
30 Korea Republic 751 4 37
31 Czech Republic 747 -2 -28
32 USA 742 -1 -8
33 Peru 720 0 -23
34 Colombia 706 -2 -40
35 Hungary 678 2 0
36 Israel 669 -1 -39
37 Slovakia 652 1 -23
38 Algeria 649 -2 -35
39 Ecuador 648 1 4
40 Iran 633 7 27
41 Zambia 630 2 0
42 Mali 629 2 4
43 Belgium 625 -4 -38
44 Gabon 617 1 0
45 Montenegro 601 6 16
46 Venezuela 593 0 -22
46 Wales 593 -4 -42
48 Nigeria 588 8 15
49 Panama 576 0 -18
50 Armenia 574 -9 -65
50 Scotland 574 -2 -28
52 South Africa 572 6 13
53 Libya 566 0 -15
54 Estonia 565 0 -11
55 Tunisia 564 1 -9
56 El Salvador 563 -2 -13
57 Jamaica 561 -7 -28
58 Egypt 560 3 15
59 Romania 559 -7 -24
60 Ukraine 548 -1 -1
61 Morocco 545 1 2
62 Cape Verde Islands 542 7 65
63 Costa Rica 534 0 -5
64 Honduras 533 -5 -16
65 Sierra Leone 518 -1 -15
66 Guinea 517 -1 0
67 Cameroon 505 -1 3
68 Belarus 500 -1 6
69 China PR 495 7 39
70 Senegal 471 -2 -19
71 Haiti 469 0 0
72 Georgia 462 9 26
73 Latvia 457 1 -6
74 Canada 456 -3 -13
75 Burkina Faso 451 0 -11
76 Austria 450 -5 -19
77 Iraq 443 2 4
77 Poland 443 -7 -27
79 Albania 432 -1 -20
80 Finland 424 -1 -15
80 Uzbekistan 424 -3 -31
82 Angola 421 1 -3
83 Jordan 412 -1 -19
84 Uganda 408 3 -3
85 Trinidad and Tobago 401 0 -15
86 Northern Ireland 400 0 -12
87 Antigua and Barbuda 391 3 -14
87 Guatemala 391 -3 -31
89 Bulgaria 388 -1 -20
90 Malawi 385 8 23
91 Lithuania 383 2 0
91 Saudi Arabia 383 -2 -24
93 Oman 381 2 4
94 Bahrain 373 3 7
94 Togo 373 0 -7
96 Qatar 368 0 -4
97 Guyana 367 -5 -21
98 Kuwait 358 -7 -41
99 FYR Macedonia 351 2 6
100 Vietnam 347 0 0
101 Botswana 331 3 3
102 Mozambique 326 0 -6
103 Bermuda 321 2 0
103 Gambia 321 12 29
105 Korea DPR 317 1 3
105 Zimbabwe 317 -6 -31
107 New Zealand 310 13 39
108 Bolivia 307 -1 -2
109 Azerbaijan 305 0 -1
110 Niger 302 1 0
111 Sudan 300 0 -2
112 Rwanda 290 -4 -18
113 St. Kitts and Nevis 287 4 0
114 Congo DR 286 5 6
115 Cuba 285 1 -5
115 Faroe Islands 285 3 0
117 Equatorial Guinea 284 -7 -21
118 Iceland 277 -15 -53
119 United Arab Emirates 275 13 32
120 Syria 267 2 -3
121 Benin 264 15 27
122 Kenya 260 1 -7
123 Lebanon 259 -9 -40
124 Suriname 254 2 0
125 Central African Republic 251 3 0
126 Namibia 249 -6 -22
126 Puerto Rico 249 -13 -52
128 Dominican Republic 247 1 0
129 Cyprus 242 -2 -10
129 Liechtenstein 242 -5 -21
131 Belize 238 4 0
132 Grenada 236 1 -4
133 Luxembourg 235 0 -5
133 Thailand 235 -3 -10
135 Ethiopia 231 2 1
136 Liberia 229 -11 -29
137 Tanzania 228 2 4
138 Congo 227 -8 -18
139 Nicaragua 211 5 22
140 Kazakhstan 208 -2 -17
141 Burundi 206 2 7
142 Moldova 201 0 -4
143 Tajikistan 195 -3 -23
144 Chad 183 -3 -24
145 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 172 0 0
146 Indonesia 160 0 -1
147 Yemen 152 0 -7
148 Samoa 149 3 0
149 Nepal 144 3 0
150 Curacao 142 3 0
150 Singapore 142 -2 -13
152 Bahamas 141 2 0
152 Malaysia 141 -2 -12
154 Philippines 136 2 -3
155 Fiji 133 4 0
155 Malta 133 4 0
157 Hong Kong 132 6 6
157 India 132 -3 -9
159 Lesotho 131 2 0
160 New Caledonia 126 3 0
161 Madagascar 123 -3 -12
162 Aruba 120 3 0
162 Bangladesh 120 -5 -18
164 Cambodia 114 8 10
164 Palestine 114 -2 -14
166 Sao Tome e Principe 113 2 0
166 Turkmenistan 113 -17 -41
168 Chinese Taipei 110 -2 -6
168 Guinea-Bissau 110 -2 -6
170 Barbados 107 -1 0
171 Mongolia 106 -1 0
172 Vanuatu 103 1 0
173 Laos 96 -2 -9
174 Dominica 95 2 0
174 Maldives 95 1 -3
176 Tonga 88 1 0
177 Myanmar 86 -3 -13
178 Afghanistan 85 0 0
179 Swaziland 83 0 0
180 US Virgin Islands 82 0 0
181 Pakistan 76 0 0
182 Solomon Islands 75 0 0
183 Tahiti 73 1 0
184 Cayman Islands 72 1 0
185 St. Lucia 65 1 0
186 Sri Lanka 62 -4 -13
187 American Samoa 61 0 0
188 Comoros 55 0 0
189 Seychelles 47 0 -6
190 Eritrea 45 0 0
191 Somalia 43 0 0
192 Kyrgyzstan 39 0 -3
193 Guam 36 0 0
194 Papua New Guinea 34 0 0
195 Mauritius 32 0 0
196 Cook Islands 28 1 0
197 British Virgin Islands 23 1 0
197 Djibouti 23 1 0
199 Macau 20 -3 -9
200 Anguilla 9 0 0
201 Bhutan 6 0 0
201 Brunei Darussalam 6 0 0
203 Mauritania 4 0 0
204 Timor-Leste 2 0 0
205 Andorra 0 0 0
205 Montserrat 0 0 0
205 San Marino 0 0 0
205 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

24 comments:

  1. what will be india's probable position if they draw or win both games?

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  2. If they draw both games India will have 142 pts (position somewhere around 150), with two wins they'll have 161 pts (position around 146).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Ed! You're awesome :) You even have patience when people mistake you for someone else (namely me :D).

      Delete
  3. Once again, thank you for this fine work. It's appreciated.
    I see that you have predicted the upcoming friendly between the Netherlands & England resulting in a draw. Should the Netherlands win this away match, might the Netherlands reclaim the the 2nd ranked position from Germany?

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    Replies
    1. If the Netherlands defeat England, they will reclaim the 2nd spot, even if Germany defeat France.

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  4. Hey Edgar its my first time to communicate or try to post for a question tho i always follow your works here and you really do great job. so if i can ask you something ... what will be Egypt probable ranking in march will it still be 58 ? because we playing 3 matches in 23/2 ,26/2 , 29/2 vs Uganda , Kenya and Botswana ... in case we won all these games would they effect our rank ? or its still 58 as u stated here? thanks in advance

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    Replies
    1. @ Amr

      Edgar has predicted Egypt will win all three matches. So that's as high as they can go. If they don't win all three, it will be less.

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    2. Not sure if he added Botswana match because it was arranged lately ... as our news said its confirmed that we got this match at 29/2.

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  5. @Amr:
    If egypt want to come back to top 30, they have to focus on Continental/World Cup qualifiers & final games. such Friendlies with teams below rank 100 will not benefit to climb on ranking,and may affect on average on long term.Tarek

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  6. Even if Holland succeeds in reclaiming 2nd place, it will be a shortlived joy. For the rankings of April, my predicition is they will lose 3 to 5 places, mainly due to devaluating results of past years. Also Germany will close in on Spain. I didn't investigate whether there is a possibility the Germans can overtake La Furia Roja, yet. If someone is interested, I can take a quick look into the figures.

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    Replies
    1. Well, Germany can't overtake Spain in the April rankings. If Germany wins against France and Spain loses against Venezuela, Spain will be 1 point ahead of Germany in the April ranks. The Dutch could fall as hard as 8th place, if they lose against England and the other results are positive for the countries behinf Holland. In any case the Dutch will lose their 3rd place to Uruguay.

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    2. Lucky Dutch. The win against England and the results of the other top-10 countries mean they will be 2nd in March, but drop to 4th in April, behind Spain, Germany and Uruguay.
      Could have been worse though, the Robben goal in extra time saved the 4th spot. Otherwise they would have been 6th behind Portugal and Brazil, but everything went the Orange way yesterday.

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    3. Lucky Dutch? England was credited with an offside goal in that match. IMHO, the better team won.
      If we table the upcoming (mostly at home) Netherlands friendlies for the moment, I would think that the Netherlands won't lose previous points until the '12 Euros start. At that time, the whole of the rankings could be shaken around. Germany lost it's match, Uruguay only garnered a draw yesterday, and I expect both teams (and #1 Spain for that matter too) to lose points in the next rankings, while the Netherlands will be the only team of the top half dozen to gain points. I respectfully ask; are your predicated mathematical calculations correct?

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    4. I'm not talking about the match itself, I'm talking about the result in relation to the other results.It was obvious that Holland had a fair chance of regaining the 2nd place in the March rankings. But I'm looking one step further, at the rankings of April. Because of the fact that no games are planned in the period until the deadline of the April rankings, one can predict the ranking of April even if the March ranking isn't published yet. Because of the other results, Holland will not lose that many places. They will lose a considerable amount of points though. In the March rankings they will gain 20 points, but in the rankings of April they will lose 172 points. That is mainly caused by the devaluation of the 2 Euro-qualifiers against Hungary one year ago. Those two games are worth 2460 points. In March they will be added to the totals of the last 12 months (which means 5484,5 points divided by 11 games = an average of 498,59 pts.), but in the April rankings those results won't count for the last 12 months anymore. So the average points for the last 12 months drop to 336,06 points (3024,5 points divided by 9 games.
      Spain will lose a lot of points too (119 in relation to the March rankings), most of the other top-10 countries gain points. Why? Bacause their results of March 2011 were not so good or they played friendlies (in which you can't earn that many points). Those March 2011 results being dropped means those countries benefit from the used formula to calculate the total points.
      So, in answer of you last question: yes, I think my predicted mathematical calculations are correct.

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    5. Since you mentioned the late Robben goal, I thought that at least part of your post was in regard to that particular match.
      I suppose one could apply the "lucky" term to any team in the top half of the standings. After every teams rankings are based upon a given teams success or lack there of in relationship to the aggregate of all the other teams success or lack there of in the rankings. One might even argue that if that particular match had not been postponed to the riots in London during the previously scheduled time, that Netherlands would have maintained the 2nd place ranking they previously held. On the other hand, one might argue that the later date be more fortuitous for the Netherlands going forward. Que sera, sera.
      Thank you for posting your thoughtful analysis for the upcoming April '12 rankings. It's appreciated.

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  7. All matches of Egypt in February have been removed and they won't play until June

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    Replies
    1. well you are wrong .. Egypt matches have been moved from Egypt to Qatar few days of delay only

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    2. then the FIFA-site is not up to date, because it shows the next match of Egypt on June 1st?
      http://www.fifa.com/associations/association=egy/fixturesresults/gender=m/index.html#

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    3. you have to click on "Next" to show it

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    4. Well yes i will say they not up to date ..if you are Egyptian then you will know that every thing here happen random and " Bil Baraka" :D

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  8. Egypt will have 546 points in the March ranking - about 60th.

    @Tobcoach

    Thanks for the analysis!

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  9. @ AMR
    Egypt can come back in FIFA Ranking to TOP 40 if they win June,2012 four matches of WC& CAF Qualifications.

    Tarek

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  10. Hello,
    I just wish to inform you that Armenia was victorious 3-1 in the Armenia-Canada match, and it did NOT end as a draw as it is posted in the results section taken into consideration for March calculations.

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  11. Just for the record, as an England fan, I thought justice was served when the third goa was scored. But I'm sure unlike most England fans I actually liked England's peformance. Switching off and conceding the 2nd goal right after the first was pathetic, but aside from that I was happy. specially with the first half, lots of possession and patient builup, lots of quic short passes and people covering and supporting each other and pressuring off the ball. I was amused that a 2 goal lead was wiped out just like the last match between these two sides, even if one goal was offside this time. If I was Netherlands coach though, I'd be angry about how they let him walk into an ocean of space in the middle of the box though, I couldn't believe that.

    Bottom line, I think England wanted it more and put more effort in, but the Dutch attacking players just outclassed ours on the day, and that's what won the match.

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