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Friday, March 23, 2012

FIFA Ranking: April 2012 probable ranking (II)

Next update: 6 April 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 April.

I was hoping to post today the final preview, but 4 friendlies were scheduled since my last preview:

29/03 Egypt - Uganda
29/03 St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda
31/03 Egypt - Chad
31/03 St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda

For the other 203 teams, their April points are already set.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings.  Here's the list of results:

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

29/Mar Egypt - Uganda 1 (Friendly)
29/Mar St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda X (Friendly)
31/Mar Egypt - Chad 1 (Friendly)
01/Apr St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda X (Friendly)

Egypt could drop to 65th if they lose both matches - a new all time low for them.

Chad could climb just inside the top 100 with a win against Egypt - a new best ever ranking for them.

Of the top 10 teams, only Spain don't move. Germany up to 2nd, Uruguay climb to 3rd, Netherlands drop to 4th. Italy out of the top 10, replaced by Denmark.

Best movers:

25 - Korea DPR
24 - Turkmenistan
14 - Tajikistan

Worst movers:

-21 - Georgia
-20 - Israel and Cuba
-14 - Cape Verde Islands

Best movers in the top 50:

9 - Libya and El Salvador
8 - Colombia and Romania
7 - Wales

Worst movers in the top 50:

-20 - Israel
-10 - Montenegro
-6 - Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Estonia

Japan return to 2nd in Asia, with Korea Republic dropping to third. Korea did peak at the right moment to be top seeded for the World Cup draw. China PR replace Uzbekistan in the Asian top 5.

Mali and Zambia switch places in the African top 5, with Mali climbing to 4th.

El Salvador climb to 3rd place in CONCACAF.

Colombia replace Paraguay in the CONMEBOL top 5.

New Caledonia up to 2nd in Oceania.

Germany up to 2nd and Portugal up to 4th in Europe, with Netherlands and England dropping one place each.

Uruguay (3rd - 4th in September 2011)
Libya (46th - 53rd in February 2012)
El Salvador (49th - 54th in February 2012)
Philippines (148th - 150th in December 2010)

Philippines could climb to 147th if St. Vincent and the Grenadines manage at most one draw from their two matches against Antigua and Barbuda.

American Samoa will return to their best ever ranking - 186th, first achieved in December 2011.

Three teams will return to their worst ever rankings:

India (165th - first happened in March 2007)
British Virgin Islands (199th - first happened in December 2011)
Brunei Darussalam (202nd - first happened in December 2011)

Eight teams will drop to new lows:

Bulgaria (96th - 88th in February 2012)
Iceland (131st - 124th in August 2011)
Cyprus (133rd - 129th in March 2012)
Thailand (141st - 139th in March 2012)
Singapore (158th - 152nd in November 2011)
Barbados (171st - 170th in March 2012)
Solomon Islands (184th - 182nd in April 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (195th - 192nd in February 2012)

Probable April 2012 rank - Team - Probable April 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1442 0 -119
2 Germany 1345 1 13
3 Uruguay 1309 1 20
4 Netherlands 1207 -2 -172
5 Portugal 1190 2 84
6 Brazil 1165 -1 8
7 England 1132 -1 11
8 Croatia 1114 2 65
9 Denmark 1069 2 44
10 Argentina 1066 -2 -36
11 Russia 1049 1 46
12 Italy 1041 -3 -21
13 Chile 967 1 17
14 Greece 961 -1 8
15 Côte d'Ivoire 951 0 7
16 France 938 0 0
17 Sweden 931 0 5
18 Republic of Ireland 891 1 19
18 Switzerland 891 0 0
20 Mexico 868 2 19
21 Australia 862 -1 -6
22 Ghana 816 1 -4
23 Colombia 815 8 67
24 Norway 805 0 8
25 Paraguay 803 0 12
26 Czech Republic 798 3 36
27 Bosnia-Herzegovina 792 -6 -58
28 Slovenia 781 0 16
29 USA 779 -2 7
30 Japan 753 3 13
31 Korea Republic 746 -1 -5
32 Serbia 725 -6 -54
33 Turkey 720 -1 -27
34 Peru 719 0 -1
35 Slovakia 716 0 6
36 Hungary 692 1 34
37 Ecuador 673 2 25
38 Algeria 667 -3 -43
39 Mali 656 3 27
40 Zambia 640 1 10
41 Wales 635 7 55
42 Gabon 621 1 4
43 Venezuela 617 3 24
44 Belgium 604 -4 -38
45 Romania 603 8 30
46 Libya 602 9 36
47 Armenia 598 -3 -3
48 Scotland 596 3 22
49 El Salvador 589 9 35
49 Ukraine 589 0 11
51 Iran 578 0 4
52 Panama 575 -2 -1
53 Estonia 574 -6 -11
54 Montenegro 569 -10 -32
55 Egypt 566 9 36
56 Jamaica 565 -2 -6
57 Tunisia 563 -1 -1
58 Israel 558 -20 -93
59 Costa Rica 557 0 7
60 Nigeria 554 -3 -3
61 Honduras 550 2 17
62 Morocco 548 -1 3
63 Sierra Leone 533 10 68
64 Cameroon 526 2 21
65 Poland 514 10 53
66 China PR 503 2 8
67 Guinea 499 -2 -10
68 Belarus 494 1 4
69 Uzbekistan 493 -2 -9
70 Iraq 488 6 28
71 South Africa 482 -11 -67
72 Haiti 477 0 8
73 Austria 475 -2 3
74 Latvia 465 4 21
75 Canada 450 4 7
76 Cape Verde Islands 449 -14 -93
77 Senegal 448 -7 -34
78 Angola 440 3 16
79 Finland 430 5 18
80 Burkina Faso 426 -3 -25
81 Jordan 420 2 0
82 Guatemala 419 4 15
83 Trinidad and Tobago 417 -1 -6
84 Albania 384 -4 -48
84 Qatar 384 4 -4
86 Korea DPR 377 25 78
87 Kuwait 376 7 8
88 Togo 374 9 25
89 Lithuania 373 2 -10
89 Saudi Arabia 373 -1 -15
91 Congo 366 10 35
92 Uganda 362 -4 -26
93 Bahrain 361 0 -12
93 Oman 361 -1 -20
95 Georgia 360 -21 -102
96 Bulgaria 354 -11 -52
97 Vietnam 347 1 0
98 FYR Macedonia 342 4 14
99 Guyana 341 0 0
100 Northern Ireland 338 -13 -62
101 Antigua and Barbuda 335 -6 -25
102 Malawi 332 -6 -22
103 Equatorial Guinea 331 5 26
104 Zimbabwe 328 2 21
105 Rwanda 327 0 11
106 Mozambique 322 -2 3
107 Botswana 321 -7 -17
108 Bermuda 318 -5 -3
109 Bolivia 308 -3 1
110 Azerbaijan 305 6 20
111 St. Kitts and Nevis 298 -2 -3
112 Liberia 293 13 25
113 Gambia 292 10 21
113 Sudan 292 -3 -8
115 Chad 289 -3 -4
116 Sao Tome e Principe 288 -1 0
117 Kenya 285 -4 -7
118 Faroe Islands 284 -2 -1
119 Congo DR 283 1 2
119 Luxembourg 283 8 19
121 Namibia 281 11 31
121 United Arab Emirates 281 1 6
123 Niger 274 -9 -15
124 Central African Republic 271 7 20
125 Benin 269 2 5
126 Syria 268 0 1
127 Burundi 267 5 17
128 Lebanon 266 -4 -4
129 Liechtenstein 261 8 25
130 New Zealand 256 -11 -28
131 Iceland 255 -10 -22
131 Tajikistan 255 14 45
133 Cyprus 252 -4 -10
133 Suriname 252 -3 -2
135 Dominican Republic 247 0 0
136 Cuba 244 -20 -41
137 Kazakhstan 243 5 19
138 Ethiopia 236 2 5
138 Puerto Rico 236 -4 -13
140 Belize 235 -4 -3
141 Thailand 232 -2 -3
142 Moldova 222 1 6
142 Turkmenistan 222 24 108
144 Grenada 217 -7 -19
145 Tanzania 215 -4 -13
146 Nicaragua 211 -2 0
147 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 184 -1 -4
148 Philippines 182 8 46
149 Nepal 164 4 20
150 Malta 161 -2 9
151 Indonesia 160 -4 0
152 Bangladesh 154 12 34
153 Palestine 151 7 20
154 New Caledonia 150 8 24
155 Samoa 149 -5 0
156 Malaysia 148 -4 0
156 Yemen 148 -8 -4
158 Singapore 145 -8 -4
159 Curacao 138 -5 -4
160 Fiji 133 -3 0
161 Bahamas 132 -6 -9
161 Hong Kong 132 -3 0
163 Lesotho 131 -3 0
164 Maldives 130 10 35
165 India 122 -7 -10
166 Madagascar 121 -3 -2
167 Aruba 120 -3 0
168 Afghanistan 118 10 33
169 Chinese Taipei 117 -1 7
170 Guinea-Bissau 116 -2 6
171 Barbados 106 -1 -1
172 Vanuatu 103 0 0
173 Cambodia 101 -7 -13
173 Myanmar 101 4 15
175 Laos 96 -2 0
176 Dominica 95 -2 0
177 Mongolia 90 -6 -16
178 Tonga 88 -2 0
179 Swaziland 86 0 3
179 Tahiti 86 4 13
181 Sri Lanka 82 5 20
182 Pakistan 80 -1 4
183 US Virgin Islands 78 -3 -4
184 Solomon Islands 75 -2 0
185 Cayman Islands 72 -1 0
186 American Samoa 61 1 0
187 Comoros 60 1 5
188 St. Lucia 52 -3 -13
189 Seychelles 47 0 0
190 Eritrea 45 0 0
191 Somalia 43 0 0
192 Mauritius 37 3 5
193 Papua New Guinea 34 1 0
194 Guam 32 -1 -4
195 Kyrgyzstan 29 -3 -10
196 Cook Islands 28 0 0
197 Djibouti 23 0 0
198 Macau 19 1 -1
199 British Virgin Islands 13 -2 -10
200 Anguilla 9 0 0
201 Bhutan 6 0 0
202 Brunei Darussalam 4 -1 -2
202 Mauritania 4 1 0
204 Timor-Leste 2 0 0
205 Andorra 0 0 0
205 Montserrat 0 0 0
205 San Marino 0 0 0
205 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

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