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Wednesday, June 20, 2012

FIFA Ranking: July 2012 preview (II)

Next update: 29 June 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July 2012.

All OFC Nations Cup matches currently being played in the Solomon Islands will be reflected in the ranking in July (see FIFA.com).

Spain's top position in danger from Germany and... England. England will be top in July if they win their next three games avoiding PSO and Germany and Spain lose their quarter final matches avoiding PSO. I can already see Roy Hodgson as a FIFA ranking specialist - Switzerland to 3rd, England to 1st :) And just imagine the uproar! I will be rooting for England - I want to see those headlines :D


Libya, Haiti, Central African Republic, Belize, Afghanistan and American Samoa will improve their best ever rankings.

Aruba will return to their best ever ranking.

Laos and Macau will return to their worst ever rankings.

Brazil, USA, Myanmar, Swaziland, Cambodia and Bhutan will drop to new lows.

Most points dropped (best case scenario):

-155 - Netherlands
-145 - Republic of Ireland
-143 - Brazil
-130 - Faroe Islands
-111 - Ghana
-80 - USA
-71 - Vietnam
-69 - Gambia
-66 - Colombia
-63 - El Salvador

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

153 - Germany
128 - Tahiti
107 - Bolivia
103 - Portugal
102 - England
94 - Italy
83 - Czech Republic
59 - Ecuador
55 - Central African Republic
50 - Greece
50 - New Caledonia

June 2012 rank - Country - June 2012 points - Minimum points - Maximum points
1 Spain 1456 1499 1729
2 Uruguay 1292 1297 1297
3 Germany 1288 1441 1672
4 Netherlands 1234 1079 1079
5 Brazil 1155 1012 1012
6 England 1145 1247 1529
7 Argentina 1137 1095 1095
8 Croatia 1053 1050 1050
9 Denmark 1019 1017 1017
10 Portugal 996 1099 1366
11 Chile 994 961 961
12 Italy 977 1071 1351
13 Russia 975 981 981
14 France 964 980 1264
15 Greece 953 1003 1270
16 Côte d'Ivoire 943 939 939
17 Sweden 910 909 909
18 Republic of Ireland 907 762 762
19 Mexico 889 832 832
20 Colombia 880 814 814
21 Switzerland 868 828 828
22 Paraguay 833 772 772
23 Japan 822 829 829
24 Australia 820 807 807
25 Ghana 818 707 707
26 Norway 787 780 780
27 Czech Republic 771 854 1116
28 USA 767 687 687
29 Bosnia-Herzegovina 756 729 729
30 Slovenia 742 706 706
31 Hungary 735 716 716
32 Algeria 734 693 693
33 Turkey 732 708 708
34 Serbia 725 675 675
35 Korea Republic 719 740 740
36 Ecuador 693 752 752
37 Peru 688 712 712
38 Wales 658 658 658
39 Slovakia 649 626 626
40 Venezuela 614 615 615
41 Scotland 611 611 611
42 Libya 608 655 655
43 Mali 601 650 650
43 Zambia 601 648 648
45 Iran 596 577 577
46 Panama 591 612 612
46 Tunisia 591 627 627
48 Egypt 588 618 657
49 Gabon 586 624 624
50 Montenegro 581 581 581
51 Armenia 579 559 559
52 Romania 572 580 580
52 Ukraine 572 621 621
54 Belgium 564 564 564
55 El Salvador 550 487 487
55 Honduras 550 496 496
57 Estonia 528 554 554
58 Austria 524 517 517
59 Sierra Leone 523 488 488
60 Jamaica 520 496 496
60 Nigeria 520 525 525
62 Poland 518 560 560
63 Senegal 517 506 506
64 Cameroon 515 520 520
65 Costa Rica 507 541 541
66 Uzbekistan 503 488 488
67 Guinea 502 448 448
68 South Africa 499 474 474
69 Belarus 497 447 447
70 Morocco 491 439 468
71 Haiti 490 503 503
72 Benin 489 446 446
73 China PR 481 474 474
74 Iraq 477 417 437
75 Finland 464 480 480
76 Latvia 459 466 466
77 Canada 457 474 474
77 Cape Verde Islands 457 441 441
79 Albania 451 448 448
80 Jordan 429 417 417
81 Israel 427 427 427
82 Trinidad and Tobago 425 432 432
83 Congo 422 375 375
84 Angola 416 407 407
85 Guatemala 412 401 401
86 Burkina Faso 407 405 405
87 Kuwait 383 364 384
88 Lithuania 380 376 376
89 Korea DPR 375 386 386
90 Bulgaria 373 373 373
91 Qatar 372 356 356
92 Saudi Arabia 369 327 359
93 Central African Republic 366 421 543
94 Uganda 363 409 409
95 Bahrain 359 331 360
95 Georgia 359 357 357
97 Oman 349 358 358
98 Togo 343 356 356
98 Vietnam 343 236 272
100 New Zealand 341 366 366
101 FYR Macedonia 338 331 331
101 Sudan 338 319 338
103 Northern Ireland 336 336 336
104 Guyana 332 304 304
105 Antigua and Barbuda 330 326 326
106 Zimbabwe 329 347 347
107 Malawi 324 370 370
108 Gambia 320 251 251
109 Bermuda 318 281 281
110 Bolivia 312 419 419
111 Kenya 303 256 256
112 Azerbaijan 300 308 308
112 Chad 300 262 262
114 Equatorial Guinea 298 302 302
114 St. Kitts and Nevis 298 301 301
116 Botswana 295 296 296
117 Mozambique 290 303 325
118 Sao Tome e Principe 288 240 240
119 Rwanda 284 256 256
119 United Arab Emirates 284 287 287
121 Luxembourg 283 303 303
122 Faroe Islands 279 149 149
122 Niger 279 291 291
124 Liberia 277 272 272
125 Cyprus 266 266 266
126 Syria 263 240 240
127 Congo DR 257 291 291
128 Suriname 255 240 240
129 Tajikistan 254 258 258
130 Ethiopia 249 273 273
131 Burundi 248 234 234
131 Iceland 248 250 250
133 Dominican Republic 247 247 247
134 Namibia 246 281 281
135 Belize 236 242 242
136 Thailand 234 235 235
137 Puerto Rico 224 210 210
138 Turkmenistan 219 223 223
139 Tanzania 214 253 253
140 Moldova 212 213 213
141 Kazakhstan 209 195 195
141 Nicaragua 209 209 209
143 Lebanon 207 197 228
144 Grenada 206 204 204
145 Cuba 197 171 171
146 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 196 196 196
147 Malta 195 196 196
148 Liechtenstein 177 177 177
149 Nepal 164 149 149
149 Philippines 164 157 157
151 Indonesia 159 156 156
152 Bangladesh 157 160 160
153 Palestine 153 148 180
154 Malaysia 151 139 139
155 New Caledonia 150 200 200
156 Samoa 149 93 93
157 Singapore 143 138 138
158 Hong Kong 142 132 132
159 Yemen 141 134 235
160 Curacao 137 138 138
161 Fiji 133 130 130
162 Bahamas 132 99 99
163 Madagascar 128 115 115
164 India 121 121 121
165 Aruba 120 120 120
165 Maldives 120 120 120
167 Chinese Taipei 115 86 86
168 Afghanistan 114 122 122
169 Guinea-Bissau 111 103 103
170 Lesotho 109 119 119
171 Vanuatu 103 104 104
172 Laos 96 44 44
173 Dominica 95 95 95
174 Myanmar 94 67 67
175 Cambodia 93 40 40
176 Mongolia 88 55 55
176 Tonga 88 87 87
178 Barbados 87 100 100
179 Swaziland 86 63 63
179 Tahiti 86 214 214
181 Pakistan 82 72 72
182 US Virgin Islands 78 85 85
183 Solomon Islands 75 92 92
184 Sri Lanka 74 64 64
185 Cayman Islands 72 72 72
186 American Samoa 61 61 61
187 Comoros 54 54 54
188 St. Lucia 52 52 52
189 Seychelles 48 46 46
190 Eritrea 45 45 45
191 Somalia 43 43 43
192 Mauritius 37 38 38
193 Papua New Guinea 34 46 46
194 Guam 32 32 32
195 Cook Islands 28 25 25
196 Kyrgyzstan 24 24 24
197 Djibouti 23 24 24
198 Macau 17 13 13
199 Andorra 15 15 15
200 British Virgin Islands 13 13 13
201 Anguilla 9 4 4
202 Brunei Darussalam 5 5 5
203 Bhutan 4 0 0
203 Mauritania 4 4 4
205 Timor-Leste 2 2 2
206 Montserrat 0 0 0
206 San Marino 0 0 0
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

30 comments:

  1. So if I understand correctly, England has a chance to become the new nr. 1? That would be a major upset.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes and no.

      1529 points are the maximum points possible for England - meeting Germany and Spain in the last two games.

      However, they need Germany and Spain to lose their QF games. They could still be 1st with 1516 points (defeating France and Portugal).

      Delete
    2. That would be fun, that's what it would be! All those star studded England teams that could go no further than a quarter final, and then this one takes the cup and the top spot...

      As the ITV England advertising campaign says, it's good to dream...

      Delete
    3. I must have jinxed them :)

      Delete
  2. If I see correctly a win over Egypt could torpedo CAR to 57 in the rankings - a whooping 36 places.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And that's after a whooping jump of 30 places in the month preceeding it and being 201 in the world three years ago...

      Delete
    2. They kept withdrawing from competition due to lack of funds. Sao Tome e Principe have also improved after not playing a match for 8 years.

      Delete
  3. I hate our press Edgar. And I think after they got done with their headlines, the whole World would hate England. Much more than before, I mean.

    I would still be curious to see though.

    ENGLAND - BEST IN THE WORLD.

    Then if the World ends in 2012 I can die happy :)

    So, France can probably beat Spain straight up on a good day. And Greece will be looking for some payback, no pun intended, on the Germans, so it's not entirely beyond the realms of possibility. And if those two fall, England have a shot. A small one, but a realistic one under those circumstances.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, I'm disgusted by most of the Romanian press and media in general too ...

      Delete
  4. "However, they need Germany and Spain to lose their QF games. They could still be 1st with 1516 points (defeating France and Portugal)."

    Edgar, did you mean Greece and Portugal?

    ReplyDelete
  5. England will not win the Euro 2012, they have been lucky thus far. I say Germany and Portagul in the final

    ReplyDelete
  6. Look, it's starting already:

    http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/england-flops-set-ranking-boost-100819856.html

    England fans, worst in the World. Spoiled brats. And the media are the worst as well. As I say that though, I'd love to be able to speak some other languages, so I could learn how other nations' fans and media react towards their teams. Foreigners who speak good English on top of their own tongue are likely more intellignet than the average person from their country, so are not a true measuring stick.

    Instead of dismantling the rankings and England as a joke, they should be breaking down why we're getting that 4th ranking (barring an Italy or Portugal win) and putting a positive spin on it.

    I for one am very grateful not to have to tear my hair out because we lost to some underdog, or even some team outside the top 20. Almost never happens and is a virtue whether people like it or not. In club football, titles are usually won by making sure of collecting the points off the weaker teams. I wonder how England would fare in a true league competition instead of these KO ones with the dreaded penalties. Would be very interesting...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. England would also surely be ranked 5th in Europe following only Euro 2012 results. Winning their group and only going out on penalties sees England surpass the other quarter finalists.

      Delete
    2. Let's see. Closest thing to a league. Competitive games only the last two tournaments. I will remove results against the bottom team and in playoffs in qualifying to make this equal, and compare them to Europe's other major teams. Of course, the semis are yet to be played. So we'll see if the remaining 4 teams can pass anyone, 6pts up for grabs. Breakdown below:

      Table
      Spain - 76pts
      Germany - 68pts
      Netherlands - 63pts
      England - 52pts
      Italy - 46pts
      Portugal - 43pts
      France - 35pts

      So, Italy can draw level with England with 2 wins, Portugal can pass Italy with 2 wins and an Italy loss and Spain are already guaranteed top. Netherlands suffering in FIFA ranking due to devaluation.

      Portugal WCQ - W3 D4 L1
      WCF - W1 D2 L1
      ECQ - W5 D1 L2
      ECF - W3 D0 L1
      Total - P24 W12 D7 L5 - Pts 43

      Germany WCQ - W6 D2 L0
      WCF - W4 D0 L2
      ECQ - W8 D0 L0
      ECF - W4 D0 L0
      Total - P26 W22 D2 L2 - Pts 68

      Spain WCQ - W8 D0 L0
      WCF - W6 D0 L1
      ECQ - W8 D0 L0
      ECF - W3 D1 L0
      Total - P27 W25 D1 L1 - Pts 76

      England WCQ - W7 D0 L1
      WCF - W1 D2 L1
      ECQ - W5 D3 L0
      ECF - W2 D2 L0
      Total - P24 W15 D7 L2 - Pts 52

      France WCQ - W4 D3 L1
      WCF - W0 D1 L2
      ECQ - W4 D3 L1
      ECF - W1 D1 L2
      Total - P23 W9 D8 L6 - Pts 35

      Italy WCQ - W5 D3 L0
      WCF - W0 D2 L1
      ECQ - W6 D2 L0
      ECF - W1 D3 L0
      Total - P W12 D10 L1 - Pts 46

      Netherlands WCQ - W8 D0 L0
      WCF W6 D0 L1
      ECQ W7 D0 L1
      ECQ - ECF - W0 D0 L3
      Total - P26 W21 D0 L5 - Pts 63

      Delete
    3. Time to flesh out the table with any remaining European teams which qualified for both tournaments. Only two in Denmark and Greece achieved this.

      Table
      Spain - 76pts
      Germany - 68pts
      Netherlands - 63pts
      England - 52pts
      Italy - 46pts
      Portugal - 43pts
      Greece - 41pts
      Denmark - 40pts
      France - 35pts

      Denmark WCQ - W4 D3 L1
      WCF - W1 D0 L2
      ECQ - W6 D1 L1
      ECF - W1 D0 L2
      Total - P22 W12 D4 L6 Pts 40

      Greece WCQ - W5 D1 L2
      WCF - W1 D0 L2
      ECQ - W5 D3 L0
      ECF - W1 D1 L2
      Total - P23 W12 D5 L6 Pts 41

      Delete
    4. Ah Lorric, if you think the nr. 4 spot is good, just wait until the rankings of August. In August, England will be 3rd if Italy fails to reach the final tonight. Only if Italy wins the tournament by beating Spain without a PSO, England will be 4th in August, behind Spain, Germany and Italy.

      Delete
    5. Aw yeah! C'mon Germany! Pick over what's left of the Italians, England wore them down for you! Roy Hodgson, FIFA Rankings specialist! :)

      I take it some quirk of the numbers is going to allow England to jump Uruguay next time.

      It's going to be fun if it happens.

      Delete
    6. "I take it some quirk of the numbers is going to allow England to jump Uruguay next time."

      Copa was in July.

      Tobcoach, how is this going to affect Argentina, Brazil and Chile?
      No need to bother yourself with exact numbers, I'm just interested if it's going to better them.

      Delete
    7. I would guess Brazil and Argentina will drop. Like England, they went out undefeated in the quarter finals, and you saw what that has done for England. Although they both had a draw instead of a second win in the GS, unlike England. (W1 D3)

      Brazil in particular with their lack of competitive matches may suffer. I am just guessing though.

      Chile were W2 D1 L1, which is better than the other 2 (7pts vs 6pts). I think Mexico were also ranked something like 9th or 10th at this tournament fresh off winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup, so that was a big boost for Chile.

      Continental tournament multiplier. I expect them all to fall.

      Delete
    8. So, MV, do you still think England were wrong to park the bus? Italy just cut the Germans to shreds.

      Damn the Germans. Not just for losing on a rare occasion I want them to win but for making me wonder. The latest penalty shootout loss was less painful (though still painful, what penalty shootout loss isn't?) than the others for two reasons. Italy's superiority, and the fact I thought England would have just lost to the Germans anyway.

      The Germany that showed up tonight would not have penetrated England's defence I feel.

      Germany should be ashamed of themselves. They had all the advantages comng into this, coasting past a team in 90 minutes, 2 days extra rest due to a ridiculous match schedule. And at times they were conducting themselves like a team that had already been beaten and were 5-0 down.

      Oh if England could only win shootouts. Imagine if Spain were England. Quarter final loss in Euro 2008, semi loss in 2012 and in 2010 I imagine a lot of people would see their win as a lucky one, with the Switzerland loss and what happened in the Paraguay match and the way they got lucky in the Chile match. Instead many see them as the greatest of all time.

      Delete
    9. 1. Italy started being defensive only AFTER taking the lead. No shame in that, just logic.
      2. They didn't really park the bus, they were (very) defensive, but for most of the match they tried to hold possession when they would get the ball.

      Germany has a couple of weak points. As any team. This was the first time the opponent took the lead so now this weak points were laid bare. And the opponent was a quality team, both offensively (danger on the counter attack) and defensively (could successfully defend teh lead). From what I've gathered, no media holds the German team in as high esteem as the British media. In Croatia, had we gone through from our group of death (which turned out to be), we would've preferred them over France and Portugal.

      Media being media lauds Spain as the best national team of all time based on them being both European and World champions, while, as you've pointed it out, they wouldn't had their sootout opponents been just a bit more accurate in their shooting. But there are people who really do follow football, unlike 90% of journalists who are the lowest kind of copycats, and they would still claim they are the best ever, simply because of how emasculating they can be towards their opponents. Same with Barca, especially towards Real. And Barca can't manage to win 2 CLs in a row.

      Delete
    10. England were 4th on 4 occasions, not only 2.

      Delete
    11. Looks like you can add Germany to the list Edgar:

      http://www.caughtoffside.com/2012/06/29/german-newspaper-bild-left-with-red-faces-after-italy-stunt/

      Most amusing :)

      Delete
    12. Oh and I mustn't forget this wonderful little gem from Sweden:

      http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/swedish-paper-predicts-english-headlines-sweden-win-gets-211706952--sow.html;_ylt=AjHvzpxijEZWVTSx_TmX9qILcykA;_ylu=X3oDMTFoZnA0Y2I3BG1pdANCbG9nIEluZGV4IGJ5IEF1dGhvcgRwb3MDMQRzZWMDTWVkaWFCbG9nSW5kZXg-;_ylg=X3oDMTFrODdzYXZuBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANhdXRob3IEcHQDc2VjdGlvbnM-;_ylv=3

      Nice to see the boot on the other foot for a most welcome change.

      Delete
  7. As long as Italy doesn't win the their match against Spain, England should move up to 4th place. With a penalty shootout win, Italy will have 1272, not enough to overtake England who have 1294. A shootout loss will give them 1232. Both would put Italy in 5th, ahead of Portugal. An Italy loss to Spain would put them in 6th, behind Portugal. FYI, the widget on the FIFA website that computes the ranking pts is a bit off for Italy. It doesn't compute the shootout win over England correctly.

    ReplyDelete
  8. @MV: "Tobcoach, how is this going to affect Argentina, Brazil and Chile?
    No need to bother yourself with exact numbers, I'm just interested if it's going to better them."

    Argentina, Bazil and Chile dón't lose that much points actually. You would expect them to lose lot of points due to the fact that the results of the Copa America that were playes after July 5th, 2011 lose 50% of their value (not entirally true offcourse, depends on number of games to divide the points by).

    In fact, Argentina wins 3 points, but stays on 7th spot. Brazil loses 21 points and drop 1 place to 12th. Chile loses 8 points but remains 15th.

    Biggest loser of the August rankings will be Peru. They lose 105 points and 15 places. Peru does suffer from the devaluation of the Copa America 2011.
    Winners are Ecuador (up 84 pts, 7 places).

    ReplyDelete
  9. @Lorric

    England can win shootouts - they did win one in 1996 - against Spain - the only time England defeated a team ranked above them in the knock-out stages. England were 24th, Spain 6th.
    Lost the other 5: Germany (1996), Argentina (1998), Portugal (2004 and 2006) and Italy (2012).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You missed Germany in 1990.

      1 win 6 losses. Worst in the World. I'd love to know how England would have done if they'd won some of them.

      Spain's probably two finest performances of this whole era of domination came after the PSO win over Italy. Italy win that, and it never happens...

      Maybe England win themselves a couple of cups if they win at WC 1990 and Euro 1996...

      I do believe the PSO is the best way to settle it, and I don't have any hard feelings over the losses, but it's sickening to be on the wrong end of it so badly. I think the biggest wonder I have is how would England and Germany compare if their penalty shootout records were reversed.

      Delete
    2. You're right - I was looking only at matches after August 1993 (the first edition of the FIFA ranking).

      Delete