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Friday, June 15, 2012

June 2012: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Syria 126 63 63
Solomon Islands 183 120 63
Fiji 161 117 44
Vanuatu 171 130 41
Mauritania 203 162 41
Cuba 145 107 38
Bulgaria 90 53 37
New Caledonia 155 118 37
New Zealand 100 64 36
Tahiti 179 145 34


Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Sierra Leone 59 123 -64
São Tomé e Príncipe 118 170 -52
Algeria 32 79 -47
Luxembourg 121 164 -43
Libya 42 81 -39
St. Kitts and Nevis 114 151 -37
Samoa 156 192 -36
Vietnam 98 132 -34
Bermuda 109 143 -34
Puerto Rico 137 171 -34

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Israel 81 49 32
Poland 62 35 27
Ukraine 52 27 25
China PR 73 50 23
Egypt 48 28 20
Cameroon 64 45 19
Costa Rica 65 46 19
Romania 52 34 18
Nigeria 60 47 13
Korea Republic 35 23 12

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Algeria 32 79 -47
Libya 42 81 -39
Slovakia 39 67 -28
Mali 43 68 -25
Gabon 49 74 -25
Slovenia 30 50 -20
Wales 38 55 -17
Bosnia-Herzegovina 29 44 -15
Ghana 25 39 -14
Tunisia 46 59 -13

Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:

Israel - Algeria
Poland - Slovakia
Ukraine - Slovenia
China PR - Sierra Leone
Egypt - Wales
Cameroon - Armenia
Costa Rica - Libya
Romania - Estonia
Nigeria - Mali
Korea Republic - Bosnia-Herzegovina

3 comments:

  1. Great work, I still not understand how those differences are such large. Does Elo Rating accounts for the last four years or more. Why most countries with a lower Elo Rating are from Africa. Is there a continental weighting affecting the ranking. For the recommanded frindlies: Israel - Algeria is impossible to be played. Probably you need to do what UEFA did to avoid a number of countries to avoid each other due to political tensions during the draw for the WCQ 2014 held last year.

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    Replies
    1. African teams get a boost in the FIFA ranking because of playing their continental tournament every two years.

      I know Israel - Algeria won't be played. Still, I can have some geeky fun on my blog, right? :)

      Delete
  2. Elo considers every match ever played since the 1910s. It does have an "importance of competition" weighting but does not have a "our formula doesn't give the right results so we have to 'fix' it" confederational fudge factor. They do publish the details of how the ratings are calculated.

    ReplyDelete