Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Syria | 126 | 63 | 63 |
| Solomon Islands | 183 | 120 | 63 |
| Fiji | 161 | 117 | 44 |
| Vanuatu | 171 | 130 | 41 |
| Mauritania | 203 | 162 | 41 |
| Cuba | 145 | 107 | 38 |
| Bulgaria | 90 | 53 | 37 |
| New Caledonia | 155 | 118 | 37 |
| New Zealand | 100 | 64 | 36 |
| Tahiti | 179 | 145 | 34 |
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Sierra Leone | 59 | 123 | -64 |
| São Tomé e Príncipe | 118 | 170 | -52 |
| Algeria | 32 | 79 | -47 |
| Luxembourg | 121 | 164 | -43 |
| Libya | 42 | 81 | -39 |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 114 | 151 | -37 |
| Samoa | 156 | 192 | -36 |
| Vietnam | 98 | 132 | -34 |
| Bermuda | 109 | 143 | -34 |
| Puerto Rico | 137 | 171 | -34 |
Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)
Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Israel | 81 | 49 | 32 |
| Poland | 62 | 35 | 27 |
| Ukraine | 52 | 27 | 25 |
| China PR | 73 | 50 | 23 |
| Egypt | 48 | 28 | 20 |
| Cameroon | 64 | 45 | 19 |
| Costa Rica | 65 | 46 | 19 |
| Romania | 52 | 34 | 18 |
| Nigeria | 60 | 47 | 13 |
| Korea Republic | 35 | 23 | 12 |
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Algeria | 32 | 79 | -47 |
| Libya | 42 | 81 | -39 |
| Slovakia | 39 | 67 | -28 |
| Mali | 43 | 68 | -25 |
| Gabon | 49 | 74 | -25 |
| Slovenia | 30 | 50 | -20 |
| Wales | 38 | 55 | -17 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 29 | 44 | -15 |
| Ghana | 25 | 39 | -14 |
| Tunisia | 46 | 59 | -13 |
Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:
Israel - Algeria
Poland - Slovakia
Ukraine - Slovenia
China PR - Sierra Leone
Egypt - Wales
Cameroon - Armenia
Costa Rica - Libya
Romania - Estonia
Nigeria - Mali
Korea Republic - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Great work, I still not understand how those differences are such large. Does Elo Rating accounts for the last four years or more. Why most countries with a lower Elo Rating are from Africa. Is there a continental weighting affecting the ranking. For the recommanded frindlies: Israel - Algeria is impossible to be played. Probably you need to do what UEFA did to avoid a number of countries to avoid each other due to political tensions during the draw for the WCQ 2014 held last year.
ReplyDeleteAfrican teams get a boost in the FIFA ranking because of playing their continental tournament every two years.
DeleteI know Israel - Algeria won't be played. Still, I can have some geeky fun on my blog, right? :)
Elo considers every match ever played since the 1910s. It does have an "importance of competition" weighting but does not have a "our formula doesn't give the right results so we have to 'fix' it" confederational fudge factor. They do publish the details of how the ratings are calculated.
ReplyDelete