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Friday, October 5, 2012

FIFA Ranking: November 2012 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the November 2012 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

 05/Oct Cambodia - Timor-Leste 1 (Friendly)
05/Oct Myanmar - Brunei Darussalam 1 (Friendly)
07/Oct Laos - Cambodia X (Friendly)
07/Oct Myanmar - Timor-Leste 1 (Friendly)
08/Oct Qatar - Jordan X (Friendly)
09/Oct Cambodia - Brunei Darussalam 1 (Friendly)
09/Oct Qatar - Oman X (Friendly)
09/Oct Timor-Leste - Laos 2 (Friendly)
10/Oct St. Kitts and Nevis - Anguilla 1 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Oct Brazil - Iraq 1 (Friendly)
11/Oct Brunei Darussalam - Laos 2 (Friendly)
11/Oct Kuwait - Syria 1 (Friendly)
11/Oct Myanmar - Cambodia 1 (Friendly)
12/Oct Albania - Iceland 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Anguilla - Trinidad and Tobago 2 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Oct Antigua and Barbuda - USA 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Argentina - Uruguay 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Armenia - Italy 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Bahrain - Philippines 1 (Friendly)
12/Oct Belarus - Spain 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Bolivia - Peru X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Bulgaria - Denmark X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Canada - Cuba 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Colombia - Paraguay 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Czech Republic - Malta 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Ecuador - Chile X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Egypt - Congo 1 (Friendly)
12/Oct El Salvador - Costa Rica X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct England - San Marino 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Estonia - Hungary X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Ethiopia - Sudan X (Continental Qualifier)
12/Oct Faroe Islands - Sweden 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Finland - Georgia 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct France - Japan 1 (Friendly)
12/Oct FYR Macedonia - Croatia 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Greece - Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Guatemala - Jamaica X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Guyana - Mexico 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Kazakhstan - Austria 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Lesotho - Swaziland 1 (Friendly)
12/Oct Liechtenstein - Lithuania 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Luxembourg - Israel 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Moldova - Ukraine 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Netherlands - Andorra 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Panama - Honduras 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Poland - South Africa 1 (Friendly)
12/Oct Republic of Ireland - Germany 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Russia - Portugal X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Serbia - Belgium 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Slovakia - Latvia 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Slovenia - Cyprus 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Solomon Islands - New Caledonia 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Switzerland - Norway 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Tahiti - New Zealand 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct Turkey - Romania 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
12/Oct United Arab Emirates - Uzbekistan X (Friendly)
12/Oct Wales - Scotland X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
13/Oct Botswana - Mali 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Oct Brunei Darussalam - Timor-Leste 1 (Friendly)
13/Oct Burkina Faso - Central African Republic 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Oct Equatorial Guinea - Congo DR 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Oct Malawi - Ghana 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Oct Morocco - Mozambique 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Oct Myanmar - Laos 1 (Friendly)
13/Oct Namibia - Rwanda X (Friendly)
13/Oct Niger - Guinea 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Oct Nigeria - Liberia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Oct Senegal - Côte d'Ivoire 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Oct Tunisia - Sierra Leone 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Oct Uganda - Zambia X (Continental Qualifier)
14/Oct Algeria - Libya X (Continental Qualifier)
14/Oct Angola - Zimbabwe 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Oct Cameroon - Cape Verde Islands 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Oct Lesotho - Swaziland 1 (Friendly)
14/Oct Pakistan - Palestine 2 (Friendly)
14/Oct Saudi Arabia - Congo 1 (Friendly)
14/Oct St. Kitts and Nevis - Trinidad and Tobago 2 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Oct Togo - Gabon X (Continental Qualifier)
16/Oct Albania - Slovenia X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Andorra - Estonia 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Austria - Kazakhstan 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Bahrain - United Arab Emirates 1 (Friendly)
16/Oct Belarus - Georgia 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Belgium - Scotland 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Bolivia - Uruguay 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Bosnia-Herzegovina - Lithuania 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Chile - Argentina X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Colombia - Cameroon 1 (Friendly)
16/Oct Costa Rica - Guyana 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Croatia - Wales 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Cuba - Panama 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Cyprus - Norway 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Czech Republic - Bulgaria 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Egypt - Tunisia 1 (Friendly)
16/Oct Faroe Islands - Republic of Ireland 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct FYR Macedonia - Serbia 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Germany - Sweden 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Honduras - Canada 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Hong Kong - Malaysia 1 (Friendly)
16/Oct Hungary - Turkey X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Iceland - Switzerland 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Iran - Korea Republic X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Iraq - Australia 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Israel - Luxembourg 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Italy - Denmark 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Jamaica - Antigua and Barbuda 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Japan - Brazil 2 (Friendly)
16/Oct Kenya - South Africa 2 (Friendly)
16/Oct Kuwait - Philippines 1 (Friendly)
16/Oct Latvia - Liechtenstein 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Mexico - El Salvador 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct New Caledonia - Solomon Islands 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct New Zealand - Tahiti 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Oman - Jordan X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Pakistan - Palestine 2 (Friendly)
16/Oct Paraguay - Peru X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Poland - England 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Portugal - Northern Ireland 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Qatar - Uzbekistan X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Romania - Netherlands 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Russia - Azerbaijan 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct San Marino - Moldova 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Singapore - India 1 (Friendly)
16/Oct Slovakia - Greece 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Spain - France 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Ukraine - Montenegro 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct USA - Guatemala 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Venezuela - Ecuador X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
16/Oct Vietnam - Indonesia 1 (Friendly)
21/Oct Guyana - St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1 (Continental Qualifier)
21/Oct St. Lucia - Curacao X (Continental Qualifier)
23/Oct Curacao - Guyana 2 (Continental Qualifier)
23/Oct St. Lucia - St. Vincent and the Grenadines X (Continental Qualifier)
24/Oct Vietnam - Turkmenistan X (Friendly)
25/Oct St. Lucia - Guyana 2 (Continental Qualifier)
25/Oct St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Curacao 1 (Continental Qualifier)
26/Oct Korea DPR - Turkmenistan 1 (Friendly)
28/Oct Vietnam - Korea DPR 2 (Friendly)
03/Nov Vietnam - Malaysia 1 (Friendly)

16 comments:

  1. Hi Edgar

    Why predicted the Algeria match, Algeria and Libya in a draw?

    Libyans expect their loss and you expect them to draw.

    Please modify the list and win Algeria match record to be logical expectations

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As I mentioned in the beginning of this post - the results are based on the Elo ratings, not on my opinion. The Elo ratings expect Algeria to draw Libya :)

      Delete
    2. The simple reason for that he is using the Elo ratings formula for the game outcome. Libya is better ranked than Algeria on EloRatings.net by more than 20 positions and as Algeria hosts the game, a draw is the most probable result. In the first leg, the probable result also expected Algeria to be defeated by Libya for the same reason. I still believe that using the Fifa ranking to predict results is the more reasonable way.

      Delete
    3. Brahim,

      I don't agree with you there.
      I have the impression that the FIFA ranking is less stable than ELO. It shows more big shifts in position after a single surprise win or defeat. And stability seems to me a good thing when it comes to making a reliable prediction.

      It is a recurring subject in many football-forums though. I wonder, has anybody ever done some conclusive research at the prediction success of ELO versus that of the FIFA ranking ?
      Edgar, are you able to shed some light on this one ? Maybe some old posts in your archive ?

      Delete
    4. Here's what Nate Silver wrote after the 2010 World Cup:

      SPI in review: How did it do?

      Voros wrote this after the 2009 Confederations Cup:

      Rating Systems and The Confederations Cup

      Both statisticians agree Elo outperforms FIFA.

      Delete
    5. Hi,

      What I don't like in Fifa ranking is giving a weight equal to 0.5 for all national teams below ranked 150. There are about 60 nations all being rated with equal strength, however there are big differences between these teams in terms of performance. There are teams loosing 8-0 and 9-0 in every game they play against teams rated with a similar strength. Would Fifa used the general rule down to about 180 or 190 and keep a small weight value like 0.2 or 0.1 for those teams in the bottom.

      What I don't like in Elo Ratings is how they can include the goal difference in the calculation. This is something Fifa used in the early ranking version but has stopped now. Also Elo Ratings accounts for the last 30 played games (if I am not wrong) which indicates different time frames for the countries. For Fifa with the current team strength an average team can invite 3 or 4 teams ranked 150 or below. With 3 or 4 wins, it brings enough points to be within the top 80 or 90 even is the team was part of the sub-150 teams. There are too many examples for teams that were ranked +150 and were found at positions around 100 by just getting points from teams ranked +150. This is unfair for teams ranked 100-150.

      Also friendlies are weighted 1 and WC's are weighted just 3. Elo Ratings is not that strict on games being accepted or not. They accept all games (at my opinion).

      Delete
    6. Brahim,

      with a friendly win against a sub-150 ranked team you can gain 150 match points tops. Your FIFA points total could not grow above that 150 too. Good for a position around 150 in the ranking at the moment.
      A team has to play at least continental qualifiers against sub-150 ranked teams (and win them) to gain more than 300 match points. A FIFA points total of 320 is good for position 106 at the moment.

      It is impossible for teams ranked 100-150 to climb in the top 100 with just playing friendlies and qualifiers against lowly (sub-150) ranked opposition. You have to take on top-100 opposition and win that kind of matches in order to achieve a top-100 spot yourself.

      Delete
    7. Yeah, Malaysia team have problem in gaining higher ranking because only friendly match with ASEAN rival, the only way to gain big points are to win World Cup qualifier match and Asian Cup qualifier match, but these only happen every 4 years, difficult for Malaysia to find friendly againt top 100 teams because many refuse or out of schedule and far distance travel. Many neighbor teams ranking not higher than 150

      Delete
  2. Could you give me an example of teams boosting their ranking after inviting 3 or 4 teams ranked 150 and below?

    Elo includes all games - it tends to become stable after 30 games. So it account for all games played by a team.

    The goal difference inclusion is for me a positive thing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For teams advancing a lot by playing against weak teams, I need to check my database and I am sure I have examples. There are a lot of mini-tournaments involving these teams to compensate for missing advanced rounds of world cup and continental qualifiers as they often get eliminated in the early rounds. I will bring you some examples.

      For the goal difference, how then you can evaluate a team winning an opponent ranked 50 with a single goal difference and the same team beating another opponent ranked 80 with 2 goals difference? This is very confusing especially if Elo is very open in accepting games. There are examples for Asian teams winning teams from Africa with score 3-0 and 4-0 and those games were never adopted by Fifa in calculating the ranking. Including the goal difference is misleading. If there is an additional factor to add, that should be whether the game is placed at home, away, or on a neutral ground.

      For teams I suspect you can check opponent position for these teams SKN, GUY, and ATG for games accounting for OCT 2012 ranking. All the 3 are ranked around position 100. I didn't check my database but I will do so later.

      That's my opinion. It might be wrong too.

      Delete
  3. @ Edgar
    I have a question: In Elo Rating, the match between Jordan+ Sierra Leone, 4/0, held on 26 May,2012,was considered. While FIFA removed this match. Could you please help in informing FIFA about considering this match,which will give Jordan more 10Pts in the Nov Ranking?
    Tarek/Jordan

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tarek,

      I have no special power at FIFA :) I know you've contacted them and they are investigating the issue.

      Delete
    2. Honestly I have seen a dozen of games played between Asian teams and sub-Saharian African teams never recognized by FIFA in the list of friendly games. It is not a game or two, but too many. The reason is probably that African teams aligned amateur players instead of the first national team. A friendly game between Bahrain and Togo has been reported by the World press as a clear example of this http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/sep/15/fake-togo-friendly-bahrain

      Do FIFA need to set some norms to accept friendly games between national teams? Like a game can only be accepted if both teams align at least 6 or 7 players being called by the national team within some period of time (say the last 3 years).

      Delete
    3. @Edgar & Brahim:
      I got answer for Jordan+Sierra Leone from FIFA: that the country should apply for any of the required authorisations - AFC, CAF or FIFA. This is a must regarding the new regulations for international matches since August 2011.Any Advise?
      Tarek/Jordan

      Delete
    4. Hi Tarek,

      Then Jordan should raise this to AFC which is the organizing body of the Asian football. A first condition is accept the game as a friendly is that none of the team made more than 6 substitutions in the game and that the referees are international (recognized by FIFA).

      Regards,

      Delete
    5. Tarek,

      I guess you should send an official match report to AFC/CAF/FIFA.

      Delete