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Friday, November 23, 2012

EURO 2016 pots: How many points does my team need?

A Romanian journalist asked me two weeks ago how many wins does Romania need to climb in the second pot for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw.

Taking the EURO 2012 pots as a guide line (removing France and adding Poland and Ukraine), these are the thresholds:

Pot 1: 31268
Pot 2: 28133
Pot 3: 24381
Pot 4: 19409
Pot 5: 14730




These are the calculations for Romania:

The coefficient needed for the 2014 cycle: (28133 * 5 - (217012 / 10) - (242013 / 10) * 2) / 2 = 35280.6 points.

No play-off scenario: 10 games: (35280.6 * 10 - 132008 - 60000) / 10000 = 16.0798 points (on the field as 3/1/0), rounded up to 17 points from 6 games.

Play-off scenario: 12 games: (35280.6 * 12 - 132008 - 80000 - 12000) / 10000 = 19.93592, rounded up to 20 points from 8 games.

Order of columns:

Rank
Team
Points needed to climb to the next pot (or maintain pot 1 status) in a no play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a no play-off scenario
Points needed to climb to the next pot (or maintain pot 1 status) in a play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a play-off scenario


1 Spain -9 -1.8 -10 -1.43 1
2 Germany -7 -1.17 -7 -0.88 1
3 Netherlands -2 -0.33 -1 -0.13 1
4 Italy 3 0.5 4 0.5 1
5 England 6 1 8 1 1
6 Russia 7 1.17 9 1.13 1
7 Portugal 9 1.5 11 1.38 1
8 Greece 10 1.67 13 1.63 1
9 Croatia 10 1.67 13 1.63 1
10 Sweden 14 2 17 1.89 2
11 Bosnia-Herzegovina 16 2.67 20 2.5 2
12 Hungary 17 2.83 21 2.63 2
13 Czech Republic 18 2.57 22 2.44 2
14 Denmark 19 2.71 22 2.44 2
15 Switzerland 19 3.17 24 3 2
16 Republic of Ireland 20 2.86 24 2.67 2
17 Norway 20 3.33 24 3 2
18 Slovakia 21 3.5 26 3.25 2
19 Israel 14 2.33 17 2.13 3
20 Ukraine 14 2 16 1.78 3
21 Belgium 15 2.5 19 2.38 3
22 Serbia 16 2.67 19 2.38 3
23 Romania 17 2.83 20 2.5 3
24 Montenegro 18 3 22 2.75 3
25 Slovenia 19 3.17 22 2.75 3
26 Turkey 19 3.17 23 2.88 3
27 Belarus 18 4.5 22 3.67 3
28 Austria 13 1.86 16 1.78 4
29 Poland 13 1.86 16 1.78 4
30 Latvia 14 2.33 16 2 4
31 Armenia 14 2 16 1.78 4
32 Scotland 15 2.5 17 2.13 4
33 Estonia 15 2.5 17 2.13 4
34 Finland 13 2.17 15 1.88 4
35 Wales 17 2.83 20 2.5 4
36 Northern Ireland 17 2.83 20 2.5 4
37 Bulgaria 5 0.83 6 0.75 5
38 Albania 6 1 7 0.88 5
39 Georgia 7 1.75 8 1.33 5
40 FYR Macedonia 8 1.33 9 1.13 5
41 Lithuania 9 1.5 10 1.25 5
42 Moldova 10 1.67 12 1.5 5
43 Iceland 11 1.83 13 1.63 5
44 Azerbaijan 14 2.33 16 2 5
45 Cyprus 15 2.5 17 2.13 5
46 Kazakhstan 6 1 6 0.75 6
47 Luxembourg 7 1.17 7 0.88 6
48 Faroe Islands 8 1.14 8 0.89 6
49 Liechtenstein 8 1.33 9 1.13 6
50 Malta 13 1.86 14 1.56 6
51 Andorra 15 2.5 17 2.13 6
52 San Marino 17 2.83 19 2.38 6

Points needed for Spain, Germany and Netherlands are negative - meaning they are assured to be in pot 1 going by EURO 2012 thresholds.

6 comments:

  1. Interesting! Could you also post how many points they need to stay in their current pot? Some teams like NOR, SVK, BLR, TUR (!!) seem to have no hope of advancing, so that would be a more realistic aim.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No rush. Nothing changes before March anyway.

      Delete
    2. Here you go:

      EURO 2016 pots: Points needed to stay in current pot.

      Delete
  2. England are safe then. San Marino and Moldova will see to those 6pts. Or at least they should!

    ReplyDelete
  3. such a humbling experience to see Bosnia ranked at number 11 European nation. They are good do not get me wrong, but out of 50 nations, that is insane!

    ReplyDelete