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Friday, November 23, 2012

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (23 November 2012)

Next update: March / April 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

The qualifying format is already known (but things might change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.


Northern Ireland replace Bulgaria in pot 4.

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points

 1  1 Spain               35507
 2  2 Germany             33825
 3  3 Netherlands         31781
 4  4 Italy               30463
 5  5 England             28945
 6  6 Russia              28806
 7  7 Portugal            27691
 8  8 Greece              27520
 9  9 Croatia             27381
-------------------------------
10 10 Sweden              25988
11 11 Bosnia-Herzegovina  25195
12 12 Hungary             24681
13 13 Czech Republic      24194
14 14 Denmark             23919
15 15 Switzerland         23871
16 16 Republic of Ireland 23533
17 17 Norway              23421
18 18 Slovakia            22952
-------------------------------
19 19 Israel              22641
20 20 Ukraine             22631
21 21 Belgium             22191
22 22 Serbia              21864
23 23 Romania             21701
24 26 Montenegro          21171
25 24 Slovenia            20914
26 25 Turkey              20574
27 27 Belarus             19246
-------------------------------
28 28 Austria             19231
29 29 Poland              19183
30 30 Latvia              18911
31 31 Armenia             18841
32 32 Scotland            18653
33 33 Estonia             18567
34 34 Finland             18076
35 35 Wales               17811
36 37 Northern Ireland    17721
-------------------------------
37 36 Bulgaria            17511
38 38 Albania             17191
39 39 Georgia             16391
40 40 FYR Macedonia       16336
41 41 Lithuania           16206
42 42 Moldova             15501
43 43 Iceland             15376
44 44 Azerbaijan          14101
45 45 Cyprus              13576
-------------------------------
46 46 Kazakhstan          12521
47 47 Luxembourg          12230
48 48 Faroe Islands       11710
49 49 Liechtenstein       11580
50 50 Malta                9900
51 51 Andorra              8900
52 52 San Marino           8160

7 comments:

  1. This is a lot different then this: http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking_2013.html
    Who is correct?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Berten, I am pretty sure it is different assumptions.
    World-results appears to only be using the results to date and ignoring future matches and only taking the average over the matches played in the cycle (so four for most countries).
    Edgar is using giving all future matches 10000 points (the base point value) and then taking the average over the total games that will be played (except playoffs - so ten for most teams, though some have eight).
    At the start of a cycle, Edgar's method is more stable (you don't have some teams with only one match), so I like it better, but both are right (or probably right - I haven't done more than spot check world-results) given the underlying assumptions.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Ok I see, so these are very close to the minimum points for each team.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep. A country with no wins would drop some and a country that has a massive negative GD in their remaining games (20+) would group if they only had one draw.

      Delete
  4. What do the pots look like now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. See the update.

      EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (14 June 2013)

      Delete