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Friday, March 30, 2012

FIFA Women's Ranking: June 2012 preview

Next update: 6 April 2012.

I'm still waiting for an answer for FIFA regarding possible errors in the rankings, so bear this in mind while looking at the table below.

Minimum points: losing all matches 6 - 0.
Maximum points: winning all matches 6 - 0.

Brazil already lost 15 points by losing 2 - 1 against Canada in USA.

For each match I use the current points (as of today).


USA (2166) would drop 13 points by losing 6 - 0 to Japan (2114) in Japan.
USA (2166) would drop 18 points by losing 6 - 0 to Brazil (2078) in Japan.

Will improve this minimum/maximum algorithm next week (maybe).

USA could lose 1st place, but only if they lose heavily against both Japan and Brazil.

Rank - Team - Current points - Minimum points - Maximum points


1 USA 2166 2135 2194
2 Germany 2163 2081 2168
3 Japan 2114 2077 2136
4 Brazil 2078 2058 2116
5 Sweden 2057 2024 2069
6 France 2020 1965 2024
7 Canada 1986 1966 2011
8 Korea DPR 1970 1970 1970
9 England 1965 1937 1966
10 Australia 1956 1956 1956
11 Italy 1936 1892 1950
12 Denmark 1913 1895 1924
13 Norway 1899 1851 1909
14 Netherlands 1889 1860 1890
15 Iceland 1851 1831 1861
16 Korea Republic 1843 1843 1843
17 Spain 1842 1811 1870
18 China PR 1828 1825 1840
19 Russia 1820 1777 1835
20 Finland 1795 1739 1812
21 Scotland 1775 1744 1818
22 Mexico 1768 1768 1768
23 Ukraine 1767 1739 1768
24 New Zealand 1752 1680 1769
25 Czech Republic 1730 1701 1760
26 Switzerland 1727 1685 1759
27 Nigeria 1686 1675 1689
28 Colombia 1651 1651 1651
29 Thailand 1645 1645 1645
30 Vietnam 1641 1641 1641
31 Republic of Ireland 1637 1627 1672
32 Poland 1634 1614 1643
33 Belgium 1629 1616 1661
34 Argentina 1609 1609 1609
35 Hungary 1599 1575 1633
36 Romania 1585 1559 1617
37 Slovakia 1581 1567 1625
38 Belarus 1579 1579 1579
39 Austria 1576 1519 1594
40 Costa Rica 1568 1568 1568
41 Uzbekistan 1565 1565 1565
42 Portugal 1557 1535 1595
43 Chinese Taipei 1556 1556 1556
44 Serbia 1547 1542 1557
45 Wales 1546 1545 1575
46 Chile 1544 1544 1544
47 Myanmar 1523 1523 1523
48 Trinidad and Tobago 1500 1500 1500
49 Papua New Guinea 1491 1474 1563
50 Ecuador 1484 1484 1484
51 Ghana 1468 1456 1471
52 Cameroon 1466 1466 1466
53 Peru 1450 1450 1450
54 India 1438 1438 1438
55 Northern Ireland 1435 1404 1462
56 Bulgaria 1434 1421 1479
57 Iran 1431 1431 1431
58 Paraguay 1430 1430 1430
59 Jordan 1404 1404 1404
60 Haiti 1397 1397 1397
61 Greece 1393 1357 1415
62 Slovenia 1386 1385 1415
63 Israel 1380 1380 1380
64 Croatia 1376 1375 1404
65 South Africa 1372 1369 1383
66 Equatorial Guinea 1371 1371 1371
67 Turkey 1356 1354 1384
68 Indonesia 1346 1346 1346
69 Uruguay 1344 1344 1344
70 Hong Kong 1342 1342 1342
71 Côte d'Ivoire 1341 1338 1353
72 Bahrain 1340 1340 1340
73 Venezuela 1338 1338 1338
73 Morocco 1338 1338 1338
75 Kazakhstan 1332 1328 1387
76 Estonia 1328 1327 1356
77 Tunisia 1325 1325 1325
78 Algeria 1320 1320 1320
79 Faroe Islands 1318 1318 1318
80 Tonga 1316 1316 1316
81 Guatemala 1310 1310 1310
82 Fiji 1306 1306 1306
83 Lithuania 1300 1300 1300
83 Guam 1300 1300 1300
85 Laos 1292 1292 1292
86 Egypt 1289 1289 1289
87 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1267 1267 1296
88 Philippines 1264 1264 1264
89 Malaysia 1256 1256 1256
89 Guyana 1256 1256 1256
91 Tahiti 1238 1238 1238
92 Bolivia 1236 1236 1236
93 Dominican Republic 1226 1226 1226
94 Latvia 1220 1220 1220
95 Mali 1204 1204 1204
96 Cuba 1201 1201 1201
97 Singapore 1195 1195 1195
97 Solomon Islands 1195 1195 1195
99 Palestine 1189 1189 1189
100 New Caledonia 1188 1188 1188

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2015 Asian Cup preliminary draw in October

According to AFC, "The members were informed that 20 teams, who have confirmed their entries for the qualifiers, would be drawn into five groups of four teams each. The top two teams from each group and one third best-placed team from among all the groups would qualify for the Finals."

According to QFA, "On the margin of the AFC executive committee meetings, it was confirmed that the qualification stage draw for the 2015 Asian Cup - Australia will be held on October."

AFC had reserved two match days in September 2012 for a possible preliminary round (1 and 5 Sep), but they won't be used.

These are the match days (2013 and 2014):

MD 1: 6 February 2013
MD 2: 22 March 2013
MD 3: 15 October 2013
MD 4: 15 November 2013
MD 5: 19 November 2013
MD 6: 5 March 2014

Alternative match dates: 11 January 2014, 18 January 2014 and 25 January 2014. Why are they needed? Because MD 3 and 5 collide with the AFC-CONMEBOL World Cup play-off.

Now, about participation. This is the list I've received from AFC (yes, they've finally replied to my e-mails!): Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, China, Bahrain, Syria, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand, Yemen, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Lebanon and Hong Kong.

Based on the 2011 Asian Cup performance ranking, the bottom 23 will participate in the AFC Challenge Cup, while the top 23 will be involved in the main qualifiers. Obviously, the top 3 (Japan, Australia and Korea Republic) have direct entry and that leaves 20 teams to participate in the qualifiers.

Korea DPR are a special case. Although they are in the top 23, the AFC Executive Committee has allowed them to play in the AFC Challenge Cup because of difficulties in hosting home-and-away games in Korea DPR. If the North Koreans would have confirmed their participation in the main qualifiers, there would have been a preliminary round involving Lebanon and Hong Kong.

Now, there's only one problem. Based on 2011 Asian Cup performance, India are 16th. Why won't they participate in the main qualifiers? No answer from AFC (yet) regarding this.

These will be the pots for the October draw:

Pot 1: Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq
Pot 2: China PR, Bahrain, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait
Pot 3: Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand, Yemen, Vietnam
Pot 4: Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Lebanon and Hong Kong.

Thailand should be below Yemen, but this doesn't affect the seeding.

Group of death: Iran, China PR, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: Challenge Cup impact (II)

Last Friday I posted the top 20 differences in peak rankings achieved in the "normal" FIFA rankings compared with those recomputed considering AFC Challenge Cup matches as continental qualifiers. In order to do this, I've computed the April 2008 through March 2012 rankings with AFC Challenge Cup matches as continental qualifiers.

I've been asked to post a list of point differences.

Top 15 point differences

Team - Peak points in the normal rankings - Peak points in the modified rankings - Difference

Turkmenistan 182 409 227
Tajikistan 250 407 157
Myanmar 163 306 143
Maldives 156 295 139
India 174 281 107
Philippines 139 244 105
Sri Lanka 115 220 105
Afghanistan 85 188 103
Bangladesh 183 278 95
Pakistan 111 193 82
Korea DPR 399 474 75
Chinese Taipei 116 191 75
Mongolia 106 173 67
Palestine 137 196 59
Macau 39 92 53

Top 20 differences (in %)

Team - Peak points in the normal rankings - Peak points in the modified rankings - Difference (%)

Macau 39 92 135.90%
Turkmenistan 182 409 124.73%
Afghanistan 85 188 121.18%
Sri Lanka 115 220 91.30%
Maldives 156 295 89.10%
Myanmar 163 306 87.73%
Philippines 139 244 75.54%
Pakistan 111 193 73.87%
Chinese Taipei 116 191 64.66%
Mongolia 106 173 63.21%
Tajikistan 250 407 62.80%
India 174 281 61.49%
Bangladesh 183 278 51.91%
Palestine 137 196 43.07%
Cambodia 114 158 38.60%
Bhutan 33 42 27.27%
Nepal 193 241 24.87%
Kyrgyzstan 253 303 19.76%
Brunei Darussalam 52 62 19.23%
Korea DPR 399 474 18.80%

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, March 23, 2012

FIFA Ranking: Challenge Cup impact

What would have happened had FIFA upgraded AFC Challenge Cup matches to continental qualifier status way back in April 2008 (the start of the 2008 AFC Challenge Cup qualifiers)?

I've computed the April 2008 through March 2012 rankings with AFC Challenge Cup matches as continental qualifiers.

Looking at the peak for each team in the rankings between April 2008 and March 2012, these are the 20 teams that would have gained the most. 18 of them were involved in the ACC.

Team - Peak in the normal rankings - Peak in the modified rankings - Difference

Turkmenistan 129 81 48
Tajikistan 124 79 45
Myanmar 135 104 31
Maldives 137 108 29
Afghanistan 164 136 28
Sri Lanka 148 123 25
Bangladesh 138 114 24
Macau 181 160 21
Pakistan 153 133 20
India 130 114 16
Chinese Taipei 147 131 16
Mongolia 160 146 14
Palestine 157 145 12
Nepal 135 124 11
Philippines 149 138 11
Cambodia 154 144 10
Kyrgyzstan 124 115 9
Korea DPR 83 75 8
Burundi 118 113 5
Equatorial Guinea 72 68 4

This will also help fans of AFC Challenge Cup teams see what to expect in the future.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: April 2012 probable ranking (II)

Next update: 6 April 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 April.

I was hoping to post today the final preview, but 4 friendlies were scheduled since my last preview:

29/03 Egypt - Uganda
29/03 St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda
31/03 Egypt - Chad
31/03 St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda

For the other 203 teams, their April points are already set.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings.  Here's the list of results:

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

29/Mar Egypt - Uganda 1 (Friendly)
29/Mar St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda X (Friendly)
31/Mar Egypt - Chad 1 (Friendly)
01/Apr St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda X (Friendly)

Egypt could drop to 65th if they lose both matches - a new all time low for them.

Chad could climb just inside the top 100 with a win against Egypt - a new best ever ranking for them.

Of the top 10 teams, only Spain don't move. Germany up to 2nd, Uruguay climb to 3rd, Netherlands drop to 4th. Italy out of the top 10, replaced by Denmark.

Best movers:

25 - Korea DPR
24 - Turkmenistan
14 - Tajikistan

Worst movers:

-21 - Georgia
-20 - Israel and Cuba
-14 - Cape Verde Islands

Best movers in the top 50:

9 - Libya and El Salvador
8 - Colombia and Romania
7 - Wales

Worst movers in the top 50:

-20 - Israel
-10 - Montenegro
-6 - Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Estonia

Japan return to 2nd in Asia, with Korea Republic dropping to third. Korea did peak at the right moment to be top seeded for the World Cup draw. China PR replace Uzbekistan in the Asian top 5.

Mali and Zambia switch places in the African top 5, with Mali climbing to 4th.

El Salvador climb to 3rd place in CONCACAF.

Colombia replace Paraguay in the CONMEBOL top 5.

New Caledonia up to 2nd in Oceania.

Germany up to 2nd and Portugal up to 4th in Europe, with Netherlands and England dropping one place each.

Uruguay (3rd - 4th in September 2011)
Libya (46th - 53rd in February 2012)
El Salvador (49th - 54th in February 2012)
Philippines (148th - 150th in December 2010)

Philippines could climb to 147th if St. Vincent and the Grenadines manage at most one draw from their two matches against Antigua and Barbuda.

American Samoa will return to their best ever ranking - 186th, first achieved in December 2011.

Three teams will return to their worst ever rankings:

India (165th - first happened in March 2007)
British Virgin Islands (199th - first happened in December 2011)
Brunei Darussalam (202nd - first happened in December 2011)

Eight teams will drop to new lows:

Bulgaria (96th - 88th in February 2012)
Iceland (131st - 124th in August 2011)
Cyprus (133rd - 129th in March 2012)
Thailand (141st - 139th in March 2012)
Singapore (158th - 152nd in November 2011)
Barbados (171st - 170th in March 2012)
Solomon Islands (184th - 182nd in April 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (195th - 192nd in February 2012)

Probable April 2012 rank - Team - Probable April 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1442 0 -119
2 Germany 1345 1 13
3 Uruguay 1309 1 20
4 Netherlands 1207 -2 -172
5 Portugal 1190 2 84
6 Brazil 1165 -1 8
7 England 1132 -1 11
8 Croatia 1114 2 65
9 Denmark 1069 2 44
10 Argentina 1066 -2 -36
11 Russia 1049 1 46
12 Italy 1041 -3 -21
13 Chile 967 1 17
14 Greece 961 -1 8
15 Côte d'Ivoire 951 0 7
16 France 938 0 0
17 Sweden 931 0 5
18 Republic of Ireland 891 1 19
18 Switzerland 891 0 0
20 Mexico 868 2 19
21 Australia 862 -1 -6
22 Ghana 816 1 -4
23 Colombia 815 8 67
24 Norway 805 0 8
25 Paraguay 803 0 12
26 Czech Republic 798 3 36
27 Bosnia-Herzegovina 792 -6 -58
28 Slovenia 781 0 16
29 USA 779 -2 7
30 Japan 753 3 13
31 Korea Republic 746 -1 -5
32 Serbia 725 -6 -54
33 Turkey 720 -1 -27
34 Peru 719 0 -1
35 Slovakia 716 0 6
36 Hungary 692 1 34
37 Ecuador 673 2 25
38 Algeria 667 -3 -43
39 Mali 656 3 27
40 Zambia 640 1 10
41 Wales 635 7 55
42 Gabon 621 1 4
43 Venezuela 617 3 24
44 Belgium 604 -4 -38
45 Romania 603 8 30
46 Libya 602 9 36
47 Armenia 598 -3 -3
48 Scotland 596 3 22
49 El Salvador 589 9 35
49 Ukraine 589 0 11
51 Iran 578 0 4
52 Panama 575 -2 -1
53 Estonia 574 -6 -11
54 Montenegro 569 -10 -32
55 Egypt 566 9 36
56 Jamaica 565 -2 -6
57 Tunisia 563 -1 -1
58 Israel 558 -20 -93
59 Costa Rica 557 0 7
60 Nigeria 554 -3 -3
61 Honduras 550 2 17
62 Morocco 548 -1 3
63 Sierra Leone 533 10 68
64 Cameroon 526 2 21
65 Poland 514 10 53
66 China PR 503 2 8
67 Guinea 499 -2 -10
68 Belarus 494 1 4
69 Uzbekistan 493 -2 -9
70 Iraq 488 6 28
71 South Africa 482 -11 -67
72 Haiti 477 0 8
73 Austria 475 -2 3
74 Latvia 465 4 21
75 Canada 450 4 7
76 Cape Verde Islands 449 -14 -93
77 Senegal 448 -7 -34
78 Angola 440 3 16
79 Finland 430 5 18
80 Burkina Faso 426 -3 -25
81 Jordan 420 2 0
82 Guatemala 419 4 15
83 Trinidad and Tobago 417 -1 -6
84 Albania 384 -4 -48
84 Qatar 384 4 -4
86 Korea DPR 377 25 78
87 Kuwait 376 7 8
88 Togo 374 9 25
89 Lithuania 373 2 -10
89 Saudi Arabia 373 -1 -15
91 Congo 366 10 35
92 Uganda 362 -4 -26
93 Bahrain 361 0 -12
93 Oman 361 -1 -20
95 Georgia 360 -21 -102
96 Bulgaria 354 -11 -52
97 Vietnam 347 1 0
98 FYR Macedonia 342 4 14
99 Guyana 341 0 0
100 Northern Ireland 338 -13 -62
101 Antigua and Barbuda 335 -6 -25
102 Malawi 332 -6 -22
103 Equatorial Guinea 331 5 26
104 Zimbabwe 328 2 21
105 Rwanda 327 0 11
106 Mozambique 322 -2 3
107 Botswana 321 -7 -17
108 Bermuda 318 -5 -3
109 Bolivia 308 -3 1
110 Azerbaijan 305 6 20
111 St. Kitts and Nevis 298 -2 -3
112 Liberia 293 13 25
113 Gambia 292 10 21
113 Sudan 292 -3 -8
115 Chad 289 -3 -4
116 Sao Tome e Principe 288 -1 0
117 Kenya 285 -4 -7
118 Faroe Islands 284 -2 -1
119 Congo DR 283 1 2
119 Luxembourg 283 8 19
121 Namibia 281 11 31
121 United Arab Emirates 281 1 6
123 Niger 274 -9 -15
124 Central African Republic 271 7 20
125 Benin 269 2 5
126 Syria 268 0 1
127 Burundi 267 5 17
128 Lebanon 266 -4 -4
129 Liechtenstein 261 8 25
130 New Zealand 256 -11 -28
131 Iceland 255 -10 -22
131 Tajikistan 255 14 45
133 Cyprus 252 -4 -10
133 Suriname 252 -3 -2
135 Dominican Republic 247 0 0
136 Cuba 244 -20 -41
137 Kazakhstan 243 5 19
138 Ethiopia 236 2 5
138 Puerto Rico 236 -4 -13
140 Belize 235 -4 -3
141 Thailand 232 -2 -3
142 Moldova 222 1 6
142 Turkmenistan 222 24 108
144 Grenada 217 -7 -19
145 Tanzania 215 -4 -13
146 Nicaragua 211 -2 0
147 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 184 -1 -4
148 Philippines 182 8 46
149 Nepal 164 4 20
150 Malta 161 -2 9
151 Indonesia 160 -4 0
152 Bangladesh 154 12 34
153 Palestine 151 7 20
154 New Caledonia 150 8 24
155 Samoa 149 -5 0
156 Malaysia 148 -4 0
156 Yemen 148 -8 -4
158 Singapore 145 -8 -4
159 Curacao 138 -5 -4
160 Fiji 133 -3 0
161 Bahamas 132 -6 -9
161 Hong Kong 132 -3 0
163 Lesotho 131 -3 0
164 Maldives 130 10 35
165 India 122 -7 -10
166 Madagascar 121 -3 -2
167 Aruba 120 -3 0
168 Afghanistan 118 10 33
169 Chinese Taipei 117 -1 7
170 Guinea-Bissau 116 -2 6
171 Barbados 106 -1 -1
172 Vanuatu 103 0 0
173 Cambodia 101 -7 -13
173 Myanmar 101 4 15
175 Laos 96 -2 0
176 Dominica 95 -2 0
177 Mongolia 90 -6 -16
178 Tonga 88 -2 0
179 Swaziland 86 0 3
179 Tahiti 86 4 13
181 Sri Lanka 82 5 20
182 Pakistan 80 -1 4
183 US Virgin Islands 78 -3 -4
184 Solomon Islands 75 -2 0
185 Cayman Islands 72 -1 0
186 American Samoa 61 1 0
187 Comoros 60 1 5
188 St. Lucia 52 -3 -13
189 Seychelles 47 0 0
190 Eritrea 45 0 0
191 Somalia 43 0 0
192 Mauritius 37 3 5
193 Papua New Guinea 34 1 0
194 Guam 32 -1 -4
195 Kyrgyzstan 29 -3 -10
196 Cook Islands 28 0 0
197 Djibouti 23 0 0
198 Macau 19 1 -1
199 British Virgin Islands 13 -2 -10
200 Anguilla 9 0 0
201 Bhutan 6 0 0
202 Brunei Darussalam 4 -1 -2
202 Mauritania 4 1 0
204 Timor-Leste 2 0 0
205 Andorra 0 0 0
205 Montserrat 0 0 0
205 San Marino 0 0 0
205 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.