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Friday, November 23, 2012

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable ranking (III)

Next update: November / December 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.


Argentina - Brazil 2 - 1, Brazil won after PSO. In light of the Uganda - Zambia match, I gave Argentina 3 points and Brazil 0 points, since the Superclásico de las Américas was played over two legs.

Five competitions left: 2012 CECAFA Cup, 2012 AFF Suzuki Cup (group stage and semifinals), 2012 Caribbean Cup and 2012 WAFF Championship (group stage only) and the qualifiers for the 2013 EAFF Cup. 'Tis the season to be busy! :)

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable results (III)

Here are the probable results used for the December 2012 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 preview (III)

Next update: November / December 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.

The top 21 teams are already set.

Haiti could climb to 22nd, Dominican Republic to 33rd.

Ecuador, Mali, Montserrat and Timor-Leste will improve their best ever ranking.

Côte d'Ivoire will return to their best ever ranking.

Brazil and Sri Lanka will fall to new lows.

EURO 2016 pots: How many points does my team need?

A Romanian journalist asked me two weeks ago how many wins does Romania need to climb in the second pot for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw.

Taking the EURO 2012 pots as a guide line (removing France and adding Poland and Ukraine), these are the thresholds:

Pot 1: 31268
Pot 2: 28133
Pot 3: 24381
Pot 4: 19409
Pot 5: 14730


EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (23 November 2012)

Next update: March / April 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

The qualifying format is already known (but things might change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (23 November 2012)

Next update: February 2013

Includes matches up to and including 21 November 2012.

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

November 2012: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


South Sudan 200 131 69
Syria 147 82 65
Fiji 167 120 47
Mauritania 206 163 43
China PR 88 49 39
Thailand 152 113 39
Finland 91 58 33
New Zealand 93 60 33
Eritrea 192 159 33
Papua New Guinea 195 162 33

Friday, November 16, 2012

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable ranking (II)

Next update: 23 November 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.


Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

No time for the preview today. Of the top 50 only Argentina, Brazil, Australia, Jamaica and Haiti still have matches to play.

Argentina can't move from 3rd, no matter what they do against Brazil, who could be ranked between 16th and 18th depending on the result of the Superclásico de las Américas. A new worst ever ranking for Brazil.

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results used for the December 2012 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

Friday, November 9, 2012

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable ranking

Next update: 16 November 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. 

The 2012 CECAFA Cup draw is scheduled for 12 November, thus I couldn't generate the probable results for this competition.

Based on these probable results, Vietnam, Sao Tome e Principe, Cuba, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, and Jamaica would climb more than 15 spots, while Belize, Bermuda, Saudi Arabia, Chad, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Wales, Korea DPR, Curacao and Dominican Republic would drop more than 15 places.


FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the December 2012 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 preview

Next update: 16 November 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.

The 2012 CECAFA Cup draw is scheduled for 12 November, but I've computed the possible minimum and maximum values for the 11 FIFA members involved.

The top 3 will remain unchanged, while Colombia could climb as high as 4th. Even if they lose to Brazil, they won't drop from their current 8th spot.

FIFA Ranking: November 2012 differences

You might have noticed Uganda's and Zambia's points in the official November 2012 FIFA ranking were different from the ones in my November 2012 final preview.

As Ed already noticed, FIFA changed the PSO algorithm after I've sent them an e-mail. Uganda got the full 3 points, while Zambia got 0, instead of the previous method of calculation: 1 for Uganda, 2 for Zambia.

Friday, November 2, 2012

FIFA Ranking: November 2012 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 November.

Just one match left: Vietnam - Malaysia, a friendly scheduled for tomorrow. This is how the points can change for these two teams:

Vietnam (W: 217, D: 207, L: 202, not included: 212)
Malaysia (W: 142, D: 132, L: 127, not included: 133)

In the table below I've used the minimum values.

On 9 October, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee has declared the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™ qualifying match Sudan-Zambia of 2 June 2012 to be lost by forfeit by Sudan (0-3), but the result still appears as 2-0 win for Sudan. I wrote to FIFA - got no reply. I will use the 2 - 0 result.

FIFA Ranking: Penalty shoot-out matches

Uganda came close to eliminating Zambia (the AFCON title holder) in Kampala last month. The Zambians won the first leg 1 - 0, but Geofrey Massa's goal after 25 minutes had leveled the situation over the two legs. It finally came down to penalties and the Zambians prevailed 9 - 8.

Perhaps some you expect Uganda to make quite a leap in the November FIFA ranking after defeating a team ranked 41st in a qualifier? A quick calculation for this match: 3 * 2.5 * 0.86 * (200 - 41) = 1022.55 points and a total of 428 points overall, a jump of 4 places to 86th. Good news for Bobby Williamson and the Cranes. Well, not quite.

FIFA Ranking: Rules for friendly matches

On 25 October 2012, FIFA sent a circular letter (#1324 - FIFA-Coca-Cola Ranking) to all its members.

Following an analysis of the legal framework, as well as the implementation of the FIFA Regulations Governing International Matches, FIFA would like to clarify the criteria for a match to be included in the list of matches used to calculate the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.