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Friday, May 31, 2013

FIFA Ranking: June 2013 probable ranking (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 June, so this is the final update for June.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

There will be a lot of movement due to devaluation of results.


At least four teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Belgium (12 - 15 in May 2013)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (15 - 19 in January 2012)
Mali (between 22 and 23 - 24 in March 2013)
Albania (between 38 and 39 - 43 in May 2013)

At least five teams will drop to new lows:

Brazil (between 20 and 23 - 19 in April 2013).
Senegal (99 - 95 in December 1998)
Latvia (119 - 118 in October 2012)
Fiji (between 182 and 183 - 177 in April 2013)
Vanuatu (between 191 and 192 - 188 in April 2000)

If Brazil don't defeat England, they will drop out of the top 20.

Probable June 2013 rank - Team - Probable June 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1614 0 76
2 Germany 1446 0 18
3 Argentina 1287 0 -9
4 Croatia 1222 0 31
5 Netherlands 1158 4 65
6 Portugal 1137 -1 -26
7 Colombia 1123 -1 -31
8 Italy 1097 0 -20
9 England 1083 -2 -52
10 Ecuador 1066 0 8
11 Russia 1059 0 7
12 Belgium 1035 3 82
13 Côte d'Ivoire 1022 -1 14
14 Switzerland 1010 0 43
15 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1008 6 112
16 Greece 1006 -3 20
17 Mexico 951 -1 6
18 France 922 0 8
19 Uruguay 913 -2 -19
20 Brazil 898 -1 -4
21 Denmark 890 -1 -10
22 Ghana 887 0 13
23 Mali 869 3 43
24 Czech Republic 853 1 24
25 Chile 841 -2 -6
25 Montenegro 841 2 52
27 Sweden 830 -3 -8
28 Norway 794 3 34
29 Nigeria 774 -1 -6
30 Japan 765 0 -8
31 Peru 764 1 11
32 Hungary 759 1 10
33 USA 758 -4 -21
34 Romania 750 0 4
35 Serbia 723 5 64
36 Algeria 716 -1 -19
37 Venezuela 712 -1 9
38 Ukraine 708 -1 33
39 Albania 690 4 50
40 Korea Republic 666 2 22
41 Republic of Ireland 659 -2 -3
42 Panama 658 -4 -5
43 Tunisia 652 -2 5
44 Paraguay 640 0 6
45 Wales 638 4 49
46 Bulgaria 628 6 45
47 Australia 619 0 -5
48 Costa Rica 617 0 1
49 Turkey 613 -5 -21
50 Burkina Faso 603 0 16
51 Jamaica 602 2 31
51 Zambia 602 -5 -26
53 Honduras 591 -3 4
54 Bolivia 578 4 41
55 Slovakia 565 -1 2
56 New Zealand 551 31 118
57 Uzbekistan 550 9 29
58 Central African Republic 543 6 15
59 South Africa 542 -3 1
60 Iceland 541 13 72
61 Haiti 538 -2 2
62 Equatorial Guinea 523 -1 -12
63 Poland 517 0 -12
64 Slovenia 516 -9 -44
65 Israel 511 -6 -25
66 Belarus 506 3 4
66 Iran 506 -9 -32
68 Cameroon 500 -6 -33
69 Sierra Leone 497 -2 -20
70 Egypt 491 -2 -21
71 Libya 490 -6 -34
72 Cape Verde Islands 486 3 22
73 Togo 483 -1 13
74 Scotland 481 4 22
75 Jordan 472 2 10
76 Austria 469 -5 -3
77 Morocco 463 -3 -3
78 FYR Macedonia 460 6 19
79 Congo 452 -1 -7
80 Trinidad and Tobago 447 2 0
81 Gabon 444 0 -6
82 Canada 443 -2 -14
83 Finland 442 0 -2
84 Congo DR 432 2 -3
85 El Salvador 429 0 -11
86 Guinea 428 -16 -52
87 United Arab Emirates 424 2 1
88 Guatemala 410 6 10
89 Armenia 408 1 -13
89 Estonia 408 3 -3
91 Angola 406 2 5
91 Cuba 406 -4 -27
93 Uganda 401 -2 -12
94 Dominican Republic 396 1 0
95 China PR 393 3 5
96 Georgia 391 0 -3
97 New Caledonia 371 7 38
98 Iraq 370 -1 -21
99 Senegal 366 -23 -97
100 Liberia 356 3 22
101 Oman 351 1 7
102 Zimbabwe 350 3 20
103 Mozambique 349 3 20
104 Qatar 338 -3 -7
105 Lithuania 330 6 14
106 Ethiopia 328 1 0
107 Niger 325 -7 -37
108 Saudi Arabia 323 0 -1
109 Malawi 317 0 -6
109 Tanzania 317 7 11
111 Kuwait 315 2 4
112 Tajikistan 312 0 0
113 Suriname 311 0 0
114 Korea DPR 309 1 0
115 Benin 308 -16 -73
116 Northern Ireland 304 3 19
117 Bahrain 292 0 1
118 Azerbaijan 291 2 15
119 Latvia 287 -9 -35
120 Namibia 281 5 24
121 Antigua and Barbuda 280 -3 -8
122 Cyprus 269 1 7
123 Kenya 268 -1 2
124 Grenada 266 -3 -9
125 Burundi 256 -1 -5
126 Guyana 249 2 1
127 Botswana 245 -2 -12
128 Puerto Rico 241 -3 -16
129 Belize 239 1 0
130 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 238 1 2
131 Lebanon 233 -2 -9
132 Turkmenistan 232 1 0
133 Vietnam 231 -1 -3
134 Moldova 230 5 16
135 Rwanda 224 1 5
135 Sudan 224 -1 0
137 St. Kitts and Nevis 218 0 0
138 Syria 215 0 0
138 Tahiti 215 -3 -6
140 Afghanistan 210 0 0
140 St. Lucia 210 0 0
142 Thailand 209 0 1
143 Kyrgyzstan 206 0 0
144 Philippines 203 0 4
145 Luxembourg 186 3 4
146 Kazakhstan 180 -2 -19
147 Hong Kong 178 4 2
147 India 178 3 0
149 Barbados 175 -3 -13
150 Aruba 163 2 0
151 Palestine 162 2 0
152 Bangladesh 161 2 0
153 Lesotho 156 2 2
154 Chad 152 12 21
155 Myanmar 149 3 0
156 Malta 148 0 -5
157 Maldives 146 2 0
158 Liechtenstein 145 -10 -37
159 Malaysia 144 2 1
159 Sao Tome e Principe 144 1 0
161 Bermuda 139 3 0
162 Faroe Islands 138 -1 -5
162 Gambia 138 -15 -49
162 Nicaragua 138 -5 -12
165 Singapore 134 0 1
166 Solomon Islands 130 -3 -12
167 Dominica 124 0 0
168 Laos 118 0 0
168 Pakistan 118 0 0
170 Indonesia 116 0 -1
171 Nepal 108 0 0
172 Sri Lanka 99 2 0
173 Yemen 96 0 -4
174 Mauritania 94 1 0
175 Chinese Taipei 90 1 0
176 Bahamas 66 3 0
176 Montserrat 66 3 0
178 Curacao 65 4 0
178 Guam 65 4 0
178 Swaziland 65 4 0
181 Guinea-Bissau 62 -2 -4
182 Fiji 61 -5 -24
182 Mongolia 61 3 0
184 Madagascar 55 4 4
185 Brunei Darussalam 52 1 0
185 Mauritius 52 4 2
185 Timor-Leste 52 1 0
188 Samoa 46 -10 -28
189 Cambodia 45 1 0
190 Tonga 44 1 0
191 Vanuatu 43 -19 -59
192 Comoros 41 0 0
193 US Virgin Islands 39 0 0
194 Papua New Guinea 38 0 0
195 British Virgin Islands 34 0 0
196 Cayman Islands 33 0 0
197 American Samoa 30 0 0
198 Eritrea 24 0 0
199 Seychelles 22 0 0
200 South Sudan 20 0 0
201 Cook Islands 16 0 0
202 Macau 14 0 0
202 Somalia 14 0 0
204 Djibouti 11 0 0
205 Andorra 8 0 -1
206 Anguilla 4 0 0
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

24 comments:

  1. Go Belgium! Top 10 here we come ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Belgium indeed continues its relentless march upwards. Mind You, considering their team, that is not surprising! Awesome!

    What a change from 4 years ago and the Bosnia dismantling the Belgian side in Brussels 2:4!

    I really hope we don't play Belgium any time soon...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Bosnia isnt doing too bad either;-)

    ReplyDelete
  4. libya matches with Mauritania 2-0 and Uganda 3-0

    are not "A" matches

    the 2 matches Libya substitute 9 players

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The match vs. Uganda was included in the June calculation.

      Delete
  5. It is said that Bosnia and Herzegovina will play against USA in the August friendlies. I don't know if it is 100% official (even thought FIFA added the game to the calender already), but what does the ELO prediction say about the game, who is gonna win/draw? And what would be the position/points of Bosnia and Herzegovina if it wins that game?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Since Bosnia has been doing great in the last year, a friendly can only lower its points average. Yes, even if they win. I guess this means the dreams of being seeded are over.

      Delete
    2. I'm aware that Bosnia has gathered among the most points in the last 12-18 months regarding all the countries, but I expect from USA to be around place 20-25 when the game commence so the devaluation of the points won't be big. About a being seeded, I never even thought would be possible for us because we were to low when the qualifications began and the opponents in our group aren't really high ranked on the FIFA ranking, especially now.

      But thanks again for your reply

      Delete
    3. max points if Bosnia faces USA (ranked 20) would be 508 points. IF they win (about 169 pts with a draw). So the devaluation might still be quite a lot.

      Delete
    4. Anon,

      For a friendly against the USA in August Elo predicts a loss if the USA plays at home, otherwise it will be a draw. With that draw Bosnia drops to a 14th spot with a predicted 1031 points in October.
      If Bosnia wins that tie, they remain at a predicted 12th spot with 1066 points. So they will lose at least 20 points playing that friendly, compared to the current predicted 1086 points.

      Delete
    5. The real killer is bloody Oman...

      Delete
    6. Oh well, look on the bright side, they're not a bad team. They're actually in a position to qualify directly to the World Cup at this point, though Australia are 2pts behind with a game in hand and still the favourites to take that place. I know the 101st place does nothing for the Bosnia, but at least the match should be useful preparation, I'm sure they're better than Latvia/Lithuania/Liechtenstein and should be decent preparation for closing out this campaign.

      Delete
    7. USA is decent preparation... PRettz much not one Asian team apart from the Aussies, Japan or Korea are realistic preparation...

      This is unfortunately just our FA taking money from rich Arabs, nothing more I'm afraid... In any case, bye bye seeding unless something TECTONIC doesn' happen, like 3-4 top teams not qualifying :)

      Delete
    8. In any case, we need tomorrow's 3 points, those Baltic states are a bitch away :)

      Delete
  6. Indeed! Maybe it's blessing though, lets qualify first and foremost! And THEN bring on Brazil, Argentina, Spain,Germany lol! :)

    ReplyDelete
  7. Keep up the the positive results Bosnia!!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Almost every team higher ranked than Bosnia plays more friendly games than bloody Bosnia. So every other team looses more points than Bosnia.
    Netherlands now play Indonesia and Thailand. England played Brazil and Ireland. USA played Belgium and Germany. Germany played Ecuador and USA ....

    ReplyDelete
  9. I don't understand why I'm struggling to get the points of 4 African countries right for the June ranking. Difference in the last timeframe (100% timeframe) between FIFA-ranking and my ranking.

    Countries are:
    Lesotho (FIFA: 101,53 pts. me: 116,04 in 7 matches)
    Libya (FIFA: 205,3 pts. me: 194,52 in 8 matches)
    South Africa (FIFA: 282,24 pts. me: 292,46 in 15 matches)
    Uganda (FIFA: 227,58 pts. me: 243,9 in 14 matches)

    The other timeframes are correct, only the last timeframe for these 4 countries don't match with the FIFA-rankings.

    I believe I have all the matches and their results right so I assume it has something to do with corrections the FIFA made in the previous rankings which have their influence on the points gained for a match.

    Can somebody help me please?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Tobcoach,

      It's about the matches LES-RSA (0:2, 2/6/2013) and LBY-UGA (3:0, 1/6/2013). Both matches are not in the FIFA results list anymore, but nonetheless they are included in the calculation of the points totals. Apparently that happens sometimes.
      Both matches were deleted from the results list somewhere around the deadline date for the June ranking (3 or 4 June) and that's probably why they are still included in the calculation of the June ranking. I expect that both matches will be excluded from the calculation for the July ranking.

      Delete
    2. Ed,

      Thank you, now the number add up correctly. Apparently, I missed those two matches being removed. Maybe because I've been on vacation the past week. On your vacation, you tend to think of someting other than the FIFA-rankings, you know...

      Thanks again!!

      Delete
    3. Ed, also thanks. Now i know why FIFA took 30 games into account in their publishing, while i had only 28.

      Delete