This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).
I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings for the matches still to be played before the August 2013 FIFA ranking deadline.
I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for an OFC opponent.
Of the top 20 best teams to play against only 6 are still available for the 14 August 2013 FIFA match date.
Teams in bold still available:
Albania (home vs. Armenia)
Montenegro (away to Belarus)
Greece (away to Austria)
Norway (away to Sweden)
Belgium (home vs. France)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (home vs. USA)
Iceland (home vs. the Faroe Islands)
Switzerland (home vs. Brazil)
Hungary (home vs. the Czech Republic)
Wales (home vs. the Republic of Ireland)
Cape Verde Islands
Croatia (away to Liechtenstein)
Uruguay (away to Japan)
Czech Republic (away to Hungary)
Denmark (away to Poland)