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Friday, June 21, 2013

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 probable ranking (III)

Next update: 28 June 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July.

I'm aware of the disciplinary procedures opened against 3 African teams. I expect Ethiopia and Togo to lose 3 - 0 their matches against Botswana and Cameroon. The Equatorial Guinea issue has to do with player nationality (most likely Ricardinho). I will update the ranking when the decisions will be final.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings.

The total points are already set for all teams, with the exception of the 12 teams involved in the remaining matches. For minimum and maximum points see the preview.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

22/Jun Italy - Brazil 2 (FIFA Confederations Cup)
22/Jun Japan - Mexico X (FIFA Confederations Cup)
23/Jun Nigeria - Spain 2 (FIFA Confederations Cup)
23/Jun Swaziland - Angola 2 (Friendly)
23/Jun Uruguay - Tahiti 1 (FIFA Confederations Cup)
26/Jun Brazil - Uruguay 1 (FIFA Confederations Cup)
27/Jun Spain - Italy 1 (FIFA Confederations Cup)
29/Jun Angola - Swaziland 1 (Friendly)
29/Jun Grenada - Dominica 1 (Friendly)
30/Jun Brazil - Spain X Brazil PSO (FIFA Confederations Cup)
30/Jun Italy - Uruguay X Italy PSO (FIFA Confederations Cup)


Best movers:

25 - Senegal
24 - Scotland and Guinea
23 - Cape Verde Islands, Armenia and Malta

Worst movers:

-30 - Central African Republic
-28 - Jamaica
-16 - Tahiti

Best movers in the top 50:

24 - Scotland
23 - Cape Verde Islands
12 - Brazil

Worst movers in the top 50:

-28 - Jamaica
-11 - Zambia
-8 - Ecuador and Panama

Eight teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Colombia (3 - 4 in December 1996)
Belgium (9 - 12 in June 2013)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (14 - 15 in June 2013)
Peru (19 - 25 in July 2011)
Cape Verde Islands (49 - 51 in October 2012)
Dominican Republic (90 - 92 in November 2012)
Tajikistan (106 - 112 in April 2013)
Guam (176 - 178 in October 2012)

One team will return to its best ever ranking:

Timor-Leste (182 - 182 in December 2012)

Two teams will return to their worst ever ranking:


Cameroon (71 - 71 in October 2012)
Poland (75 - 75 in March 2012)

Five teams will drop to new lows:

Latvia (120 - 119 in June 2013)
Fiji (191 - 182 in June 2013)
Cambodia (198 - 192 in July 2012)
Seychelles (200 - 199 in July 2011)
Cook Islands (204 - 202 in April 2009)

Probable July 2013 rank - Team - Probable July 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1602 0 -12
2 Germany 1273 0 -143
3 Colombia 1206 4 83
4 Argentina 1204 -1 -83
5 Netherlands 1180 0 22
6 Italy 1107 2 10
7 Portugal 1099 -1 -38
8 Croatia 1098 -4 -124
9 Belgium 1079 3 44
10 Brazil 1065 12 193
11 Greece 1038 5 32
12 Uruguay 1016 7 103
13 Côte d'Ivoire 1009 0 -13
14 Bosnia-Herzegovina 995 1 -13
15 England 994 -6 -101
16 Switzerland 987 -2 -23
17 Russia 979 -6 -80
18 Ecuador 932 -8 -134
19 Peru 898 11 107
20 Chile 872 5 31
21 USA 865 7 67
22 France 838 -4 -84
23 Ghana 830 -2 -57
24 Mexico 828 -7 -100
25 Norway 801 4 7
26 Czech Republic 797 -2 -56
27 Denmark 788 -7 -102
28 Mali 774 -5 -95
29 Montenegro 774 -3 -67
29 Ukraine 774 11 87
31 Sweden 765 -4 -65
32 Hungary 749 1 -10
33 Romania 732 1 -18
34 Algeria 730 1 -7
35 Nigeria 724 -4 -61
36 Japan 721 -4 -44
37 Venezuela 704 0 -8
38 Albania 689 0 -1
38 Costa Rica 688 9 71
40 Australia 671 7 52
41 Serbia 661 -5 -62
42 Burkina Faso 656 9 62
43 Korea Republic 642 -3 -24
44 Republic of Ireland 639 -3 -20
45 Slovenia 634 10 66
46 Wales 630 -1 -8
47 Tunisia 627 -5 -25
48 Paraguay 622 -4 -18
49 Cape Verde Islands 620 23 134
50 Scotland 610 24 129
51 Panama 601 -8 -48
52 Bulgaria 596 -6 -32
53 Iran 596 15 90
54 Austria 595 22 126
55 Honduras 582 -3 0
56 New Zealand 582 2 31
57 Turkey 573 -3 0
58 Uzbekistan 563 0 13
59 South Africa 558 1 16
60 Zambia 554 -11 -48
61 Guinea 545 24 107
62 Egypt 543 9 52
63 Slovakia 542 -7 -23
64 Israel 540 -2 0
65 Finland 537 19 95
66 Armenia 534 23 126
67 Equatorial Guinea 532 -3 9
68 Bolivia 528 -15 -50
69 Haiti 522 -6 -16
70 Libya 518 -1 20
71 Cameroon 517 -6 0
71 Togo 511 1 28
73 Iceland 499 -12 -42
74 Senegal 497 25 131
75 Poland 493 -10 -24
76 Jordan 489 -1 17
77 Jamaica 484 -28 -118
78 Belarus 482 -11 -24
78 Morocco 470 -2 7
80 Uganda 466 13 65
81 Gabon 459 1 15
82 Cuba 458 9 52
83 Sierra Leone 443 -13 -54
84 Congo DR 434 -5 -20
85 United Arab Emirates 432 2 8
86 Estonia 423 3 15
87 Trinidad and Tobago 419 -6 -28
88 Canada 413 -5 -30
89 Central African Republic 398 -30 -145
90 Congo 396 -10 -56
91 Dominican Republic 396 4 0
92 FYR Macedonia 395 -14 -65
93 Guatemala 388 -5 -22
94 El Salvador 382 -8 -47
95 Ethiopia 381 11 53
96 Angola 380 -5 -26
97 New Caledonia 377 0 6
98 Georgia 369 -2 -22
99 Oman 361 2 10
100 China PR 339 -5 -54
101 Iraq 335 -3 -35
102 Mozambique 326 1 -23
103 Liberia 324 -3 -32
104 Lithuania 321 1 -9
105 Saudi Arabia 315 3 -8
106 Tajikistan 314 6 2
107 Niger 313 0 -12
108 Malawi 312 1 -5
109 Suriname 311 4 0
110 Kuwait 309 1 -6
111 Northern Ireland 307 5 3
112 Korea DPR 306 2 -3
112 Qatar 306 -8 -32
114 Zimbabwe 304 -12 -46
115 Benin 302 0 -6
116 Botswana 301 11 56
117 Azerbaijan 298 1 7
118 Grenada 291 6 25
119 Bahrain 286 -2 -6
120 Latvia 280 -1 -7
121 Burundi 273 4 17
121 Tanzania 271 -13 -46
123 Antigua and Barbuda 265 -2 -15
123 Kenya 264 -1 -4
125 Cyprus 256 -3 -13
126 Moldova 256 9 26
127 Namibia 252 -7 -29
128 Guyana 250 -2 1
129 Lebanon 246 2 13
130 Belize 242 -1 3
131 Puerto Rico 241 -3 0
132 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 238 -2 0
133 Malta 236 23 88
134 Rwanda 233 1 9
135 Sudan 233 1 9
136 Turkmenistan 232 -4 0
137 Kyrgyzstan 227 6 21
138 Thailand 223 4 14
139 St. Kitts and Nevis 218 -2 0
139 Afghanistan 214 0 4
141 Luxembourg 210 4 24
142 St. Lucia 210 -1 0
142 Syria 205 -5 -10
144 Philippines 203 0 0
145 Vietnam 182 -12 -49
146 India 178 1 0
147 Barbados 175 2 0
148 Hong Kong 173 -1 -5
148 Liechtenstein 173 10 28
150 Kazakhstan 172 -4 -8
151 Palestine 167 0 5
152 Bangladesh 166 0 5
153 Aruba 163 -3 0
154 Maldives 147 3 1
154 Tahiti 147 -16 -68
156 Singapore 146 9 12
157 Bermuda 139 4 0
158 Nicaragua 138 4 0
159 Malaysia 136 0 -8
160 Chad 134 -6 -18
161 Lesotho 133 -8 -23
162 Solomon Islands 132 4 2
163 Myanmar 129 -8 -20
164 Gambia 126 -2 -12
165 Dominica 124 2 0
166 Sao Tome e Principe 120 -7 -24
167 Pakistan 114 1 -4
168 Indonesia 112 2 -4
169 Nepal 106 2 -2
170 Yemen 96 3 0
171 Sri Lanka 95 1 -4
172 Mauritania 94 2 0
173 Laos 87 -5 -31
174 Faroe Islands 81 -12 -57
175 Chinese Taipei 77 0 -13
176 Guam 70 2 5
177 Montserrat 66 -1 0
178 Curacao 65 0 0
179 Swaziland 60 -1 -5
180 Guinea-Bissau 58 1 -4
181 Bahamas 53 -5 -13
182 Brunei Darussalam 52 3 0
182 Mauritius 52 3 0
182 Timor-Leste 52 3 0
185 Madagascar 51 -1 -4
186 Mongolia 49 -4 -12
187 Samoa 46 1 0
187 US Virgin Islands 46 6 7
189 Tonga 43 1 -1
189 Vanuatu 43 2 0
191 Comoros 41 1 0
191 Fiji 41 -9 -20
193 British Virgin Islands 34 2 0
194 Cayman Islands 33 2 0
195 American Samoa 30 2 0
196 Eritrea 24 2 0
197 Papua New Guinea 23 -3 -15
198 Cambodia 20 -9 -25
198 South Sudan 20 2 0
200 Seychelles 19 -1 -3
201 Somalia 14 1 0
202 Macau 12 0 -2
203 Djibouti 11 1 0
204 Cook Islands 9 -3 -7
205 Andorra 8 0 0
206 Anguilla 3 0 -1
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

10 comments:

  1. "Four teams will drop to new lows:"

    What about Latvia?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry, I was looking at the wrong column :)

      Updated now.

      Delete
  2. in the fifa web site


    Libya will be 527 not 518


    but my calculate like you 518



    even this month they put libya 498
    but it is 489 becuse libya uganda match is not "A" match

    ReplyDelete
  3. mexico rank : 20 recheck

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. recheck the date of posting and this: "Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)"

      Delete
  4. Edgar, is it possible to make a post with the October probable ranking, taking into account the probable results of the matches remaining? I know there are still some games not setled yet, like the CAF play-offs, but we could get a pretty close idea of which teams would be seeded in the WC final stage and for the UEFA play-offs...

    Thank You

    ReplyDelete
  5. Could you perhaps tell me what Uruguay's point total would be if they were to win the penalty shoot-out against Italy?

    ReplyDelete