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Friday, July 26, 2013

July 2013: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the July FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team.

The most popular opponent for the month of June is Central African Republic - the best opponent for no less than 106 teams.

Of the top 20, only Germany, Portugal, Uruguay, England, Russia and Mexico would have gained points. Of these only England would have climbed in the rankings - 2 spots by defeating Denmark. Despite losing 3 points by winning the hypothetical friendly against Croatia, Brazil would have climbed one spot, overtaking their opponents.

Teams from the top 100 that would have gained the most (ranking-wise):

18 - Benin
7 - Angola
6 - Paraguay, Georgia, Tajikistan

Albania were the recommended team for Paraguay. For the other 4 teams - Central African Republic.

Teams from the top 50 that would have gained the most (ranking-wise):

6 - Paraguay
4 - Wales
3 - Sweden and Republic of Ireland

Montenegro were the recommended team for Sweden. For the other 4 teams - Albania.

July Ranking - Team - Recommended opponent - Point difference - Rank difference


1 Spain Croatia -5 0
2 Germany Montenegro 3 0
3 Colombia Montenegro -24 -1
4 Argentina Montenegro -8 0
5 Netherlands Montenegro -8 0
6 Italy Montenegro -1 0
7 Portugal Montenegro 5 0
8 Croatia Montenegro -3 0
9 Brazil Croatia -3 1
10 Belgium Montenegro -21 0
11 Greece Albania -6 0
12 Uruguay Montenegro 9 0
13 Côte d'Ivoire Montenegro -4 0
14 Bosnia-Herzegovina Albania -16 -2
15 England Denmark 15 2
16 Switzerland Montenegro -7 0
17 Russia Montenegro 3 0
18 Ecuador Montenegro -6 0
19 Peru Albania -2 0
20 Mexico Montenegro 2 0
21 Chile Montenegro 10 1
22 USA Albania -5 0
23 France Montenegro 14 0
24 Ghana Albania -14 0
25 Norway Montenegro 12 0
26 Czech Republic Albania 11 1
27 Denmark Albania 14 2
28 Mali Albania 2 0
28 Montenegro Albania 3 0
28 Ukraine Albania 0 0
31 Sweden Montenegro 17 3
32 Hungary Albania 9 0
33 Romania Albania 4 0
34 Algeria Albania 4 1
35 Nigeria Albania 0 0
36 Venezuela Albania 7 0
37 Albania Central African Republic -6 -2
37 Japan Albania 12 0
39 Costa Rica Albania -11 1
40 Australia Albania -2 1
41 Serbia Albania 12 2
42 Burkina Faso Central African Republic -6 0
43 Korea Republic Albania 18 2
44 Republic of Ireland Albania 17 3
45 Slovenia Central African Republic 11 2
46 Wales Albania 19 4
47 Tunisia Central African Republic 3 1
48 Paraguay Albania 22 6
49 Cape Verde Islands Central African Republic -3 0
50 Scotland Albania 15 2
51 Panama Albania 9 1
52 Bulgaria Albania 6 1
52 Iran Albania -4 -2
54 Austria Albania 14 3
55 Honduras Albania -6 -1
55 New Zealand Albania -19 -2
57 Turkey Albania 24 5
58 Uzbekistan Albania 10 1
59 South Africa Albania 9 1
60 Zambia Central African Republic -1 0
61 Guinea Central African Republic 5 0
62 Egypt Albania 19 3
63 Slovakia Central African Republic 15 3
64 Israel Albania 14 4
65 Finland Albania 16 4
66 Armenia Central African Republic 16 5
67 Equatorial Guinea Central African Republic -2 0
68 Bolivia Albania -7 -1
69 Haiti Central African Republic 7 1
70 Libya Central African Republic -1 0
71 Cameroon Central African Republic -8 -1
72 Togo Central African Republic 1 0
73 Iceland Central African Republic 1 0
74 Senegal Central African Republic -7 -1
75 Poland Albania 20 3
76 Jordan Central African Republic 5 1
77 Jamaica Central African Republic -4 -1
78 Belarus Central African Republic 11 3
79 Morocco Central African Republic 10 0
80 Uganda Central African Republic -5 0
81 Gabon Central African Republic 18 2
82 Cuba Central African Republic -1 0
83 Sierra Leone Central African Republic 23 3
84 Congo DR Central African Republic 7 0
85 United Arab Emirates Albania -2 0
86 Estonia Central African Republic 17 2
87 Trinidad and Tobago Central African Republic 10 1
88 Canada Central African Republic 0 0
89 Central African Republic Equatorial Guinea 33 3
90 Congo Central African Republic 24 3
90 Dominican Republic Central African Republic 11 1
92 FYR Macedonia Central African Republic 12 3
93 Guatemala Central African Republic 10 4
94 El Salvador Central African Republic 2 1
95 Ethiopia Equatorial Guinea 7 2
96 Angola Central African Republic 16 7
97 New Caledonia Central African Republic 12 5
98 Georgia Central African Republic 21 6
99 Oman Central African Republic 7 0
100 China PR Central African Republic 8 0
101 Iraq Central African Republic 10 1
102 Mozambique Central African Republic 21 2
103 Liberia Central African Republic 15 3
104 Lithuania Central African Republic 28 4
105 Saudi Arabia Central African Republic 2 0
106 Tajikistan Central African Republic 30 6
107 Niger Central African Republic 20 5
108 Malawi Central African Republic 19 6
109 Suriname Central African Republic 25 8
110 Kuwait Central African Republic 3 2
111 Northern Ireland Central African Republic 30 10
112 Korea DPR Albania 17 8
112 Qatar Central African Republic 12 7
114 Zimbabwe Central African Republic 25 12
115 Benin Central African Republic 72 18
116 Botswana Equatorial Guinea 17 11
117 Azerbaijan Central African Republic 23 13
118 Bahrain Central African Republic 11 0
119 Latvia Central African Republic 30 9
120 Burundi Central African Republic 34 9
121 Tanzania Central African Republic 16 3
122 Antigua and Barbuda Central African Republic 32 4
123 Grenada Central African Republic 74 22
123 Kenya Central African Republic 16 4
125 Cyprus Central African Republic 27 6
125 Moldova Central African Republic 23 5
127 Namibia Central African Republic 34 9
128 Guyana Central African Republic 25 8
129 Lebanon Central African Republic 12 4
130 Belize Central African Republic 31 10
131 Puerto Rico Bhutan 26 9
132 St. Vincent and the Grenadines Central African Republic 21 7
133 Malta Central African Republic 26 8
134 Rwanda Central African Republic 26 9
134 Sudan Central African Republic 22 7
136 Turkmenistan Central African Republic 72 22
137 Kyrgyzstan Central African Republic 25 10
138 Thailand Central African Republic 18 7
139 St. Kitts and Nevis Central African Republic 74 21
140 Afghanistan American Samoa 25 8
141 Luxembourg Central African Republic 29 9
141 St. Lucia American Samoa -9 -3
143 Syria Central African Republic 23 6
144 Philippines Central African Republic 14 4
145 Vietnam Central African Republic 26 2
146 India Central African Republic 27 3
147 Barbados Central African Republic 38 6
148 Hong Kong Central African Republic 24 3
148 Liechtenstein Central African Republic 29 3
150 Kazakhstan Central African Republic 36 7
151 Palestine Central African Republic 23 6
152 Bangladesh American Samoa 8 4
153 Aruba American Samoa 4 2
154 Maldives Central African Republic 46 9
154 Tahiti Central African Republic 32 8
156 Singapore Central African Republic 17 3
157 Bermuda Central African Republic 73 16
158 Nicaragua Central African Republic 74 17
159 Malaysia Central African Republic 21 5
160 Chad Central African Republic 72 17
161 Lesotho Central African Republic 32 8
162 Solomon Islands Central African Republic 40 12
163 Myanmar American Samoa 2 0
164 Gambia Central African Republic 73 19
165 Dominica American Samoa 26 11
166 São Tomé e Príncipe Bhutan 26 10
167 Pakistan American Samoa 5 0
168 Indonesia Central African Republic 27 11
169 Nepal American Samoa 11 2
170 Yemen Central African Republic 30 6
171 Sri Lanka American Samoa 26 5
172 Mauritania Central African Republic 73 21
173 Laos American Samoa 5 0
174 Faroe Islands Central African Republic 50 11
175 Chinese Taipei American Samoa 9 1
176 Guam American Samoa 5 0
177 Montserrat American Samoa 26 4
178 Curaçao American Samoa 26 5
179 Swaziland Central African Republic 48 10
180 Guinea-Bissau Central African Republic 73 17
181 Bahamas American Samoa 26 6
182 Brunei Darussalam American Samoa 12 3
182 Mauritius American Samoa 26 7
182 Timor-Leste American Samoa 25 7
185 Madagascar Central African Republic 73 20
186 Mongolia American Samoa 25 10
187 Samoa American Samoa 26 11
187 US Virgin Islands American Samoa 26 11
189 Tonga American Samoa 25 12
189 Vanuatu Central African Republic 72 22
191 Comoros American Samoa 25 14
191 Fiji Central African Republic 72 23
193 British Virgin Islands American Samoa 26 14
194 Cayman Islands American Samoa 26 14
195 American Samoa Bhutan 26 14
196 Eritrea Central African Republic 73 26
197 Papua New Guinea Central African Republic 72 26
198 Cambodia American Samoa 18 5
198 South Sudan Central African Republic 73 25
200 Seychelles American Samoa 26 11
201 Somalia American Samoa 26 8
202 Macau American Samoa 15 6
203 Djibouti American Samoa 25 10
204 Cook Islands American Samoa 25 11
205 Andorra American Samoa 15 8
206 Anguilla American Samoa 26 10
207 Bhutan American Samoa 26 11
207 San Marino American Samoa 15 6
207 Turks and Caicos Islands American Samoa 26 11

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