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Friday, November 1, 2013

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for AFC (1 November 2013)

Assumptions:

- AFC will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- AFC will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding


The July 2015 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2011 and July 2015. This means we're currently in the 0.5 time frame and things will start to get interesting.

This the July 2015 ranking (for AFC only) using matches played up to and including October 31st, 2013 and matches scheduled up to July 2014 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

For the 2014 FIFA World Cup preliminaries, AFC used the performance based seeding for the first two rounds, then the July 2011 ranking for the group stage draw. This means that if the rules don't change, we already know the seeding for the first two rounds.

Changes since the last update:

Jordan replace Australia in the first pot.
Saudi Arabia replace Iraq in the second pot.
Kuwait replace Korea DPR in the third pot.

First round (performance based)

Pot 1: Bangladesh, Yemen, India, Philippines, Maldives, Myanmar, Syria, Kyrgystan, Hong Kong, Nepal, Laos
Pot 2: Chinese Taipei, Mongolia, Cambodia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste, Macau, Guam, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam

Second round (performance based)

Pot 1: Uzbekistan, Oman, Qatar, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, China PR, Kuwait, Korea DPR, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, Tajikistan, Singapore, Indonesia
Pot 2: Turkmenistan, Palestine, Malaysia, Vietnam + 11 winners from the first round

Third round (seeded using the FIFA ranking)

Assuming the seeded teams advance, this is how the pots would look like:

Pot 1: Japan, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 2: United Arab Emirates, Australia, Oman, China PR, Saudi Arabia
Pot 3: Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, Iraq, Tajikistan
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Bahrain, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia

Looking at the ranking table below, I'm sure some of the teams would rather have AFC seed all the rounds using the FIFA ranking.

Rank - Team - Points

 1 Japan                 236
 2 Uzbekistan            230
 3 Jordan                211
 4 Korea Republic        200
 5 Iran                  193
 6 United Arab Emirates  178
 7 Australia             176
 8 Oman                  155
 9 China PR              139
10 Saudi Arabia          136
11 Kuwait                121
12 Afghanistan           120
13 Lebanon               115
14 Qatar                 113
15 Iraq                  106
16 Tajikistan            103
17 Korea DPR              90
18 Bahrain                83
19 Vietnam                73
20 Philippines            71
21 Maldives               69
22 Singapore              67
22 Turkmenistan           67
24 India                  65
25 Kyrgyzstan             64
26 Hong Kong              59
27 Thailand               58
28 Syria                  57
29 Indonesia              55
30 Pakistan               54
31 Nepal                  48
32 Palestine              46
33 Malaysia               45
34 Bangladesh             44
35 Sri Lanka              37
36 Chinese Taipei         32
37 Myanmar                30
38 Guam                   23
39 Laos                   20
40 Yemen                  19
41 Brunei Darussalam      15
41 Timor-Leste            15
43 Mongolia                6
44 Macau                   2
45 Bhutan                  0
45 Cambodia                0

Looking to improve your FIFA ranking before the draw? Use the e-mail address from my profile to contact me.

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