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Monday, February 18, 2013

FIFA Ranking: March 2013 preview

Next update: 8 March 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 March 2013.

This is a quiet month - only 11 teams have matches scheduled - all part of the 2014 AFC Challenge Cup qualification. None of them could climb higher than 128th. This means the top 127 of the March ranking is already set.

This is how the points and rankings could change for these 11 teams:

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Worst possible rank - Best possible rank

Palestine 132 175 168 143
India 97 218 175 138
Myanmar 84 165 178 147
Bangladesh 79 208 178 140
Chinese Taipei 78 175 178 143
Laos 73 154 179 149
Nepal 72 152 179 150
Mongolia 50 244 187 128
Guam 40 120 190 164
Afghanistan 39 233 190 131
Sri Lanka 28 221 196 135

In the table below, the values displayed for these teams are the lowest possible, thus their total points can't drop even if they lose all the matches.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (18 February 2013)

Next update: March/April 2013

Includes matches up to and including 17 February 2013.

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

This ranking could also be used for the UEFA play-off.

This is the top 20 of the intermediate October 2013 ranking.

Friday, February 8, 2013

FIFA Ranking: February 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 February 2013.

Three matches left: a friendly (Nepal - Pakistan) and the final and the 3rd place match of the 2013 Africa Cup of Nations (Nigeria - Burkina Faso and Mali - Ghana).

This is how the points could change:

L = Loss, D = Draw, W = Win, PSO = Penalty shoot-out.

Ghana (L:865, PSO L:893, PSO W:922, W:950)
Nigeria (L:698, PSO L:714, PSO W:731, W:747)
Mali (L:679, PSO L:723, PSO W:768, W:813)
Burkina Faso (L:571, PSO L:594, PSO W:618, W:642)
Nepal (L:80, D:85, W:95)
Pakistan (L:63, D:71, W:88)

In the table below, the values displayed for those teams are the lowest possible.

Brazil will fall to 19th (worst ever ranking) if Ghana defeat Mali after 90 or 120 minutes (i.e. avoiding PSO).

Friday, February 1, 2013

FIFA Ranking: February 2013 probable ranking

Next update: 8 February 2013. 

59 matches left before the deadline. FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 February 2012.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results, Côte d'Ivoire will climb to 4th (best ever ranking for a team from Africa).

FIFA decided to consider CHAN matches as friendlies and they have added some CHAN games played in December 2012. That's why for instance Mauritania and Mauritius climb in the rankings.

Mauritania, South Africa and Belize will climb more than 30 places, Burkina Faso - 26, Congo, Mauritius, El Salvador and Congo DR - 15 or more.

Equatorial Guinea will drop 33 places, Gabon - 26, Angola - 17, Egypt 14, Guinea, Tanzania, Haiti and Algeria - 10 or more.

FIFA Ranking: February 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the February 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: February 2013 preview

Next update: 8 February 2013.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

130 - Belize
98 - Burkina Faso
91 - Mauritania
72 - South Africa
63 - Congo
60 - El Salvador
45 - Congo DR
44 - Costa Rica
42 - Tunisia
39 - Ghana

Most points dropped (best case scenario):

-134 - Equatorial Guinea
-110 - Gabon
-104 - Algeria
-62 - Angola
-55 - Japan
-55 - Zambia
-55 - Egypt
-45 - Libya
-45 - Guinea
-35 - Colombia

January 2013 FIFA Ranking: Discrepancy between results and points

As Ed noticed, there is a problem with Burkina Faso (and Bahrain and Congo). FIFA awarded a FIFA World Cup qualifier played in June 2012 to Congo (the result on the field was 0:0). FIFA also removed the friendly Bahrain - Burkina Faso (0:0 on December 26th, 2012), before the ranking was released. The points for Burkina Faso are computed as if these changes were ignored.

EURO 2016 pots: Points needed to stay in current pot

In November 2012 I posted a list with the points needed to climb to the next pot (e.g. from pot 3 from pot 2) for the EURO 2016 preliminary draw.

Håkon asked me for a list with the points needed to stay in the current pot. Here it is.

Rank
Team
Points needed to stay in the current pot in a no play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a no play-off scenario
Points needed to stay in the current pot in a play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a play-off scenario

January 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Syria 136 75 61
South Sudan 198 141 57
Fiji 169 123 46
Mauritania 206 163 43
Iraq 89 52 37
Korea DPR 99 63 36
China PR 86 51 35
Kuwait 120 85 35
New Zealand 91 57 34
Eritrea 195 161 34