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Friday, July 26, 2013

2018 FIFA World Cup: 2 years left until the preliminary draw

Next update: July/August 2014.

The preliminary draw for the 2018 FIFA World Cup will take place in Saint Petersburg on either 24 or 25 July 2015.

Assumption: same formats used for the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers.

Based on the 2014 preliminary draw, the FIFA ranking used to seed the teams from AFC, CAF and UEFA will be the July 2015 edition, while for the CONCACAF teams the March 2015 ranking will be used.

This means we already have 25% of the final formula (even more for CONCACAF teams), as the 0.3 time frame closed a couple of days ago. See previous update.

July 2013: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the July FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team.

The most popular opponent for the month of June is Central African Republic - the best opponent for no less than 106 teams.

Of the top 20, only Germany, Portugal, Uruguay, England, Russia and Mexico would have gained points. Of these only England would have climbed in the rankings - 2 spots by defeating Denmark. Despite losing 3 points by winning the hypothetical friendly against Croatia, Brazil would have climbed one spot, overtaking their opponents.

Friday, July 19, 2013

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 probable ranking (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 8 August.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

At least three teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Bosnia-Herzegovina (13 - 14 in July 2013)
Dominican Republic (at least 89 - 90 in July 2013)
Philippines (141 - 143 in November 2012)

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results used for the August 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 preview (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on August 8th.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

92 - Cameroon
49 - El Salvador
40 - Ecuador
33 - Trinidad and Tobago
33 - Suriname
31 - Lebanon
30 - Botswana
25 - Dominican Republic
24 - Vanuatu
22 - Turkmenistan

July 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Fiji 191 122 69
Syria 143 83 60
South Sudan 198 139 59
Korea DPR 112 58 54
Vanuatu 189 144 45
Kuwait 110 72 38
Gambia 164 128 36
Guinea-Bissau 180 147 33
Eritrea 196 164 32
Papua New Guinea 197 165 32

Friday, July 12, 2013

FIFA Ranking: Excel file with FIFA points since March 2009

For all those looking to kick-start their FIFA ranking calculations, Jeroen (one of visitors of this blog) has provided an Excel file with all the FIFA match points since March 2009.

Enjoy!

2015 Africa Cup of Nations seeding for the qualifying and final draws

The qualifying draw for the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations (hosted by Morocco) will take place in South Africa in January/February 2014 during the African Nations Championship.

There will be a preliminary round to reduce the field to 48 teams - for this round, the FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams.

The for group stage draw, the CAF rankings will be used for seeding.

The winner from each of the 12 groups will qualify for a place in the final tournament in Morocco along with the 3 best second placed teams.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: No official announcement from FIFA

It's amazing what some members of the media will publish or tweet.

On Sunday, I was alerted by Fredrik  of something Vito De Palma (ESPN journalist) wrote on Twitter.

7 Jul
Temas cabezas de serie: FIFA hara una tabla promediando los ultimos 3 Mundiales y 3 aƱos de ranking. Colombia con suerte estara en 3ra urna

Friday, July 5, 2013

2013 CONCACAF Gold Cup simulations

The Gold Cup kicks off in two days.

Compared to the April simulations, USA are now favorites to win the tournament.

Last in group:

80.08% - Belize
53.16% - Martinique
37.05% - Trinidad and Tobago
33.5% - Haiti
29.14% - Canada
19.47% - El Salvador
18.19% - Cuba
13.82% - Panama
9.98% - Honduras
3.88% - Mexico
1.52% - Costa Rica
0.21% - USA

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 8 August.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Bosnia-Herzegovina will improve their best ever ranking again. They will be 13th next month.


FIFA Ranking: August 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the August 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 preview (I)

FIFA will publish the ranking on August 8th.

It's quite an active month: Gold Cup, COSAFA Cup, CHAN qualifiers and the East Asian Cup.

For this month, I've changed the preview approach. I won't be looking at minimum and maximum points, but at best and worst possible ranking.

Moving up (worst case scenario):

9 - Solomon Islands and Vanuatu
8 - Cameroon
6 - Suriname and Botswana

Update on FIFA's sanctions

FIFA announced sanctions against Ethiopia and Togo. Both will lose their matches (against Botswana and Cameroon respectively) 3 - 0. However, the decisions are not yet final and binding (according to an e-mail from FIFA).

As you can see, the results (Group A and Group I) are not changed yet.

Cameroon also managed to get suspended.

For the July ranking I already used the awarded results, because both Ethiopia and Togo have announced they won't be appealing.

Elo Ratings: Brazil dethrone Spain

Spain took hold (again) of the top spot on 3 July 2010, after defeating Paraguay in the quarterfinals of South Africa 2010.

They have remained on top for 45 matches, but on 30 June they've lost not only the final of the Confederations Cup, but also the first place in the Elo Ratings to Brazil.