Probable July 2014 rank - Team - Probable July 2014 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Germany | 1627 | 1 | 327 | 
| 2 | Argentina | 1614 | 3 | 439 | 
| 3 | Brazil | 1555 | 0 | 313 | 
| 4 | Colombia | 1492 | 4 | 355 | 
| 5 | Netherlands | 1381 | 10 | 400 | 
| 6 | Italy | 1306 | 3 | 202 | 
| 7 | Switzerland | 1272 | -1 | 123 | 
| 8 | Belgium | 1254 | 3 | 180 | 
| 9 | Spain | 1229 | -8 | -256 | 
| 10 | Uruguay | 1220 | -3 | 73 | 
| 11 | France | 1218 | 6 | 305 | 
| 12 | Portugal | 1167 | -8 | -22 | 
| 13 | Chile | 1095 | 1 | 69 | 
| 14 | USA | 1018 | -1 | -17 | 
| 15 | Russia | 1009 | 4 | 116 | 
| 16 | Croatia | 1007 | 2 | 104 | 
| 17 | England | 1004 | -7 | -86 | 
| 18 | Greece | 991 | -6 | -73 | 
| 19 | Ukraine | 898 | -3 | -17 | 
| 20 | Côte d'Ivoire | 879 | 3 | 70 | 
| 21 | Mexico | 862 | -1 | -20 | 
| 22 | Ecuador | 849 | 4 | 58 | 
| 23 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 841 | -2 | -32 | 
| 24 | Denmark | 807 | -1 | -2 | 
| 25 | Algeria | 759 | -3 | -99 | 
| 26 | Scotland | 734 | 1 | -52 | 
| 27 | Romania | 733 | 2 | -28 | 
| 28 | Sweden | 724 | 4 | -17 | 
| 29 | Costa Rica | 723 | -1 | -39 | 
| 30 | Venezuela | 720 | 10 | 48 | 
| 31 | Serbia | 717 | -1 | -28 | 
| 32 | Turkey | 714 | 3 | -8 | 
| 33 | Panama | 684 | -2 | -59 | 
| 34 | Czech Republic | 646 | 0 | -78 | 
| 35 | Egypt | 645 | 1 | -70 | 
| 36 | Slovenia | 644 | -11 | -156 | 
| 37 | Hungary | 642 | 10 | 18 | 
| 38 | Honduras | 637 | -5 | -94 | 
| 39 | Armenia | 635 | -1 | -47 | 
| 40 | Tunisia | 621 | 8 | 9 | 
| 41 | Iran | 618 | 2 | -23 | 
| 41 | Nigeria | 618 | 3 | -22 | 
| 43 | Austria | 614 | -1 | -29 | 
| 44 | Wales | 606 | -3 | -38 | 
| 45 | Ghana | 604 | -8 | -100 | 
| 45 | Japan | 604 | 1 | -22 | 
| 47 | Slovakia | 588 | 2 | -3 | 
| 48 | Iceland | 570 | 4 | 4 | 
| 49 | Paraguay | 566 | 1 | -9 | 
| 50 | Montenegro | 559 | 1 | -15 | 
| 51 | Guinea | 555 | 1 | -11 | 
| 52 | Korea Republic | 533 | 5 | -14 | 
| 53 | Uzbekistan | 523 | 6 | -16 | 
| 54 | Cameroon | 520 | 2 | -38 | 
| 54 | Norway | 520 | 1 | -42 | 
| 56 | Finland | 508 | 5 | -24 | 
| 57 | Jordan | 500 | 6 | -10 | 
| 58 | Burkina Faso | 495 | 2 | -43 | 
| 59 | Peru | 487 | -14 | -140 | 
| 60 | Poland | 478 | 9 | 4 | 
| 61 | Senegal | 476 | 13 | 25 | 
| 62 | Libya | 471 | 2 | -27 | 
| 63 | Sierra Leone | 469 | -9 | -96 | 
| 64 | United Arab Emirates | 466 | 8 | 6 | 
| 65 | Mali | 462 | -8 | -85 | 
| 66 | South Africa | 450 | -1 | -46 | 
| 67 | Albania | 444 | -1 | -51 | 
| 67 | Israel | 444 | 8 | 0 | 
| 69 | Oman | 443 | 10 | 23 | 
| 70 | Republic of Ireland | 440 | 0 | -33 | 
| 71 | Bolivia | 429 | -4 | -54 | 
| 72 | Bulgaria | 425 | 6 | 0 | 
| 73 | Azerbaijan | 410 | 10 | 14 | 
| 74 | Cape Verde Islands | 401 | -35 | -273 | 
| 75 | Australia | 397 | -13 | -129 | 
| 76 | FYR Macedonia | 396 | 4 | -23 | 
| 76 | Zambia | 396 | 0 | -45 | 
| 78 | China PR | 391 | 25 | 60 | 
| 79 | Saudi Arabia | 384 | 11 | 3 | 
| 80 | Angola | 377 | 13 | 13 | 
| 80 | Morocco | 377 | -3 | -62 | 
| 82 | Belarus | 376 | 0 | -21 | 
| 83 | Congo | 375 | 2 | -18 | 
| 84 | Jamaica | 373 | -3 | -38 | 
| 85 | Trinidad and Tobago | 369 | -14 | -101 | 
| 86 | Palestine | 362 | 8 | 4 | 
| 87 | Qatar | 361 | 13 | 22 | 
| 88 | Uganda | 358 | -2 | -32 | 
| 89 | Togo | 357 | -1 | -26 | 
| 90 | Iraq | 356 | 14 | 27 | 
| 90 | Northern Ireland | 356 | 0 | -25 | 
| 92 | Benin | 354 | -5 | -32 | 
| 93 | Estonia | 345 | 5 | 2 | 
| 94 | Gabon | 344 | -5 | -38 | 
| 95 | Kenya | 339 | 13 | 43 | 
| 96 | Congo DR | 338 | -12 | -57 | 
| 96 | Georgia | 338 | 0 | -11 | 
| 98 | Zimbabwe | 334 | 1 | -6 | 
| 99 | Botswana | 332 | -7 | -43 | 
| 99 | Niger | 332 | 13 | 48 | 
| 101 | New Zealand | 330 | -4 | -17 | 
| 102 | Moldova | 325 | -1 | -9 | 
| 103 | Latvia | 314 | 6 | 21 | 
| 104 | Lithuania | 312 | 2 | -7 | 
| 105 | Bahrain | 288 | 5 | -1 | 
| 106 | Tanzania | 287 | 7 | 4 | 
| 107 | Kuwait | 281 | 8 | 5 | 
| 108 | Luxembourg | 278 | 11 | 11 | 
| 109 | Rwanda | 276 | 7 | 5 | 
| 110 | Ethiopia | 271 | -3 | -46 | 
| 111 | Equatorial Guinea | 270 | -9 | -63 | 
| 112 | Namibia | 264 | 2 | -13 | 
| 113 | Haiti | 262 | -40 | -190 | 
| 114 | Liberia | 256 | 2 | -15 | 
| 114 | Sudan | 256 | 6 | 2 | 
| 116 | Mozambique | 255 | 2 | -14 | 
| 117 | Central African Republic | 253 | -12 | -68 | 
| 118 | Canada | 250 | -8 | -39 | 
| 119 | Lebanon | 249 | 6 | 16 | 
| 120 | Cuba | 245 | -25 | -109 | 
| 121 | El Salvador | 234 | -53 | -247 | 
| 121 | Malawi | 234 | 1 | -13 | 
| 123 | Aruba | 233 | -3 | -21 | 
| 124 | Tajikistan | 232 | 2 | 3 | 
| 125 | Dominican Republic | 230 | 6 | 18 | 
| 126 | Burundi | 222 | 2 | 1 | 
| 127 | Kazakhstan | 220 | -3 | -21 | 
| 128 | Philippines | 218 | 1 | 1 | 
| 129 | Afghanistan | 217 | 1 | 2 | 
| 129 | Vietnam | 217 | -6 | -25 | 
| 131 | Lesotho | 213 | 8 | 19 | 
| 131 | Suriname | 213 | 5 | 16 | 
| 133 | Mauritania | 208 | 4 | 12 | 
| 134 | Guatemala | 204 | -7 | -22 | 
| 135 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 203 | -2 | 0 | 
| 136 | Guinea-Bissau | 199 | -2 | -2 | 
| 136 | New Caledonia | 199 | 4 | 9 | 
| 138 | St. Lucia | 195 | -1 | -1 | 
| 139 | Cyprus | 193 | 3 | 4 | 
| 140 | Chad | 183 | -6 | -18 | 
| 140 | Turkmenistan | 183 | 3 | 0 | 
| 142 | Grenada | 182 | 2 | 0 | 
| 143 | Madagascar | 179 | 1 | -3 | 
| 144 | Kyrgyzstan | 176 | 5 | 13 | 
| 145 | Maldives | 171 | 2 | 0 | 
| 146 | Syria | 169 | -6 | -21 | 
| 147 | Korea DPR | 163 | -1 | -12 | 
| 148 | Gambia | 161 | 0 | -5 | 
| 149 | Antigua and Barbuda | 152 | 2 | -6 | 
| 150 | Indonesia | 151 | 7 | 16 | 
| 151 | Malta | 146 | -19 | -58 | 
| 152 | India | 144 | 2 | 0 | 
| 152 | Malaysia | 144 | 1 | -5 | 
| 154 | Singapore | 140 | 1 | -1 | 
| 155 | Guyana | 136 | 1 | -1 | 
| 156 | Puerto Rico | 134 | 2 | 0 | 
| 157 | Thailand | 128 | -8 | -35 | 
| 158 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 124 | 2 | 0 | 
| 159 | Swaziland | 123 | 14 | 38 | 
| 160 | Myanmar | 122 | -1 | -11 | 
| 161 | Belize | 117 | -9 | -35 | 
| 162 | Hong Kong | 114 | 1 | 2 | 
| 163 | Bangladesh | 103 | 4 | 5 | 
| 164 | Montserrat | 99 | 2 | 0 | 
| 165 | Nepal | 96 | -1 | -6 | 
| 166 | Pakistan | 95 | -2 | -7 | 
| 167 | Dominica | 93 | 2 | 0 | 
| 167 | Liechtenstein | 93 | -5 | -25 | 
| 169 | Barbados | 92 | 1 | 0 | 
| 170 | Laos | 87 | -2 | -10 | 
| 171 | Tahiti | 85 | -10 | -37 | 
| 172 | Comoros | 84 | 2 | 0 | 
| 173 | Bermuda | 83 | 2 | 0 | 
| 174 | Guam | 79 | 4 | 2 | 
| 175 | Nicaragua | 78 | 1 | 0 | 
| 175 | Solomon Islands | 78 | 5 | 8 | 
| 177 | Sao Tome e Principe | 72 | -5 | -14 | 
| 178 | Chinese Taipei | 71 | -2 | -7 | 
| 178 | Sri Lanka | 71 | 1 | -2 | 
| 180 | Yemen | 70 | 3 | 9 | 
| 181 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 66 | 26 | 66 | 
| 182 | Seychelles | 64 | -1 | -2 | 
| 183 | Curacao | 63 | -1 | -2 | 
| 184 | Faroe Islands | 61 | -13 | -28 | 
| 185 | Mauritius | 56 | -1 | -1 | 
| 186 | South Sudan | 43 | -1 | -4 | 
| 187 | Vanuatu | 38 | 3 | 10 | 
| 188 | Fiji | 31 | 0 | -3 | 
| 189 | Mongolia | 29 | -2 | -6 | 
| 190 | Samoa | 28 | -1 | -4 | 
| 190 | US Virgin Islands | 28 | 5 | 5 | 
| 192 | Bahamas | 26 | -6 | -14 | 
| 192 | Brunei Darussalam | 26 | 0 | 0 | 
| 192 | Timor-Leste | 26 | 0 | 0 | 
| 192 | Tonga | 26 | 0 | 0 | 
| 196 | Cayman Islands | 21 | 0 | 0 | 
| 197 | American Samoa | 18 | 1 | 0 | 
| 198 | Andorra | 16 | 2 | 0 | 
| 199 | Papua New Guinea | 14 | -3 | -7 | 
| 200 | British Virgin Islands | 13 | -2 | -5 | 
| 200 | Cambodia | 13 | -10 | -15 | 
| 202 | Eritrea | 11 | -1 | 0 | 
| 203 | Somalia | 8 | -1 | 0 | 
| 204 | Macau | 7 | -2 | -1 | 
| 205 | Djibouti | 6 | -1 | 0 | 
| 206 | Cook Islands | 5 | -1 | 0 | 
| 207 | Anguilla | 1 | -1 | -2 | 
| 208 | Bhutan | 0 | -1 | 0 | 
| 208 | San Marino | 0 | -1 | 0 | 
 
The second matchday in each group at the World Cup has been played. Here's an update of the elo-predictions for the remaining matches, the resulting top-30 of the July ranking and the confederation weightings.
ReplyDelete2014-06-23 Brazil - Cameroon; World Cup; 1
2014-06-23 Croatia - Mexico; World Cup; X
2014-06-23 Netherlands - Chile; World Cup; X
2014-06-23 Spain - Australia; World Cup; 1
2014-06-24 Colombia - Japan; World Cup; 1
2014-06-24 Greece - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup; X
2014-06-24 Costa Rica - England; World Cup; X
2014-06-24 Uruguay - Italy; World Cup; X
2014-06-25 Ecuador - France; World Cup; 2
2014-06-25 Switzerland - Honduras; World Cup; 1
2014-06-25 Argentina - Nigeria; World Cup; 1
2014-06-25 Bosnia-Herzegovina - Iran; World Cup; X
2014-06-25 Indonesia - Nepal; Friendly; 1
2014-06-25 Mozambique - Ethiopia; Friendly; X
2014-06-26 Germany - USA; World Cup; 1
2014-06-26 Portugal - Ghana; World Cup; 1
2014-06-26 Algeria - Russia; World Cup; 2
2014-06-26 Belgium - Korea Republic; World Cup; 1
2014-06-28 Brazil - Chile; World Cup; 1
2014-06-28 Colombia - Italy; World Cup; 1
2014-06-29 Netherlands - Mexico; World Cup; 1
2014-06-29 Costa Rica - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup; Costa Rica PSO win
2014-06-29 China PR - Mali; Friendly; 1
2014-06-30 France - Nigeria; World Cup; 1
2014-06-30 Germany - Russia; World Cup; 1
2014-07-01 Argentina - Switzerland; World Cup; 1
2014-07-01 Belgium - USA; World Cup; Belgium PSO win
2014-07-02 Vietnam - Myanmar; Friendly; 1
2014-07-04 Brazil - Colombia; World Cup; 1
2014-07-04 France - Germany; World Cup; 2
2014-07-05 Netherlands - Costa Rica; World Cup; 1
2014-07-05 Argentina - Belgium; World Cup; 1
2014-07-08 Brazil - Germany; World Cup; 1
2014-07-09 Netherlands - Argentina; World Cup; Netherlands PSO win
2014-07-12 Germany - Argentina; World Cup; Germany PSO win
2014-07-13 Brazil - Netherlands; World Cup; 1
1 Argentina 1609 (+4)
2 Germany 1559 (-)
3 Brazil 1555 (-)
4 Colombia 1490 (+4)
5 Netherlands 1362 (+10)
6 Belgium 1351 (+5)
7 France 1289 (+10)
8 Uruguay 1276 (-1)
9 Spain 1229 (-8)
10 Switzerland 1216 (-4)
11 Portugal 1148 (-7)
12 Chile 1095 (+2)
13 Italy 1078 (-4)
14 USA 1024 (-1)
15 Croatia 1007 (+3)
16 Greece 991 (-4)
17 Russia 959 (+2)
18 Costa Rica 931 (+10)
19 Cote d'Ivoire 929 (+4)
20 England 911 (-10)
21 Ukraine 898 (-5)
22 Mexico 862 (-2)
23 Algeria 857 (-1)
24 Ecuador 849 (+2)
25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 820 (-4)
26 Denmark 807 (-3)
27 Scotland 734 (-)
28 Romania 733 (+1)
29 Sweden 724 (+3)
30 Venezuela 720 (+10)
CONMEBOL 1.00
UEFA 0.96
CONCACAF 0.87
CAF/AFC/OFC 0.85
Auch Europe ! That's not good at all.
At the same time: a very entertaining World Cup so far. Lots of goals and surprises.
Looking at the predicted results & ranking, these teams of the top 20 may have a very different ranking if the results turn out to be slightly different:
ReplyDeleteBrazil, Netherlands & Chile: depending on the result of Netherlands-Chile, these 3 teams can face very different opponents and that way a very different result.
Uruguay: seems to me able to qualify for round of 16, so this could make a big change. Also makes the result of Italy unsure.
Portugal: IF (IF, IF!!!) they would still qualify, they can still get a big bonus.
Jeroen, as it happens the result for each team is unsure. It's just a prediction, as you know, but based on the (in my opinion) best NT-ranking system there is.
DeleteIt's just for fun, this prediction business :) I hope everyone is aware of all the what-if-scenario's around here when interpreting the information ...
Thanks Ed.
ReplyDelete