Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (2 December 2016)
TwitterLinked In

Friday, July 4, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for UEFA (4 July 2014)

I received last week an e-mail from someone at Deloitte with questions about the 2018 seeding for Europe. I planned to update this after the World Cup, but since the 4 remaining UEFA teams are in the first pot and there are no other matches involving European teams before the 0.5 time frame closes, here's the current situation.

Assumptions:

- UEFA will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- UEFA will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding


The July 2015 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2011 and July 2015. This means the 0.5 time frame is set for all European teams except Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and France.

This the July 2015 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including July 2nd, 2014 and matches scheduled up to July 2014 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Looking to improve your FIFA ranking before the draw? Use the e-mail address from my profile to contact me.

Changes since the last update:

Netherlands and France replace Ukraine and England in pot 1.
Romania and Serbia replace Armenia and Slovenia in pot 2.
Bulgaria replace Moldova in pot 4.

Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, France, Portugal, Greece, Italy
Pot 2: Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ukraine, England, Denmark, Scotland, Romania, Serbia, Sweden
Pot 3: Turkey, Czech Republic, Wales, Hungary, Austria, Armenia, Slovenia, Iceland, Slovakia
Pot 4: Finland, Poland, Montenegro, Norway, Albania, FYR Macedonia, Republic of Ireland, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan
Pot 5: Israel, Estonia, Latvia, Northern Ireland, Belarus, Moldova, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Georgia
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Cyprus, Malta, Liechtenstein, Faroe Islands, Andorra, San Marino

Rank -Previous Rank - Team - Points

 1  2 Germany              723
 2  6 Belgium              714
 3 11 Netherlands          645
 4  1 Switzerland          630
 5  3 Spain                628
 6 10 France               594
 7  5 Portugal             576
 8  4 Greece               550
 9  7 Italy                532
------------------------------
10 12 Croatia              477
11 13 Bosnia-Herzegovina   470
12  8 Ukraine              468
13  9 England              451
14 17 Denmark              401
15 15 Scotland             384
16 19 Romania              380
17 20 Serbia               354
18 15 Sweden               347
------------------------------
19 22 Turkey               342
20 23 Czech Republic       340
21 25 Wales                337
22 24 Hungary              331
23 26 Austria              317
24 14 Armenia              314
25 18 Slovenia             313
26 21 Iceland              305
27 27 Slovakia             278
------------------------------
28 28 Finland              267
29 34 Poland               245
30 32 Montenegro           241
31 34 Norway               239
32 32 Albania              223
33 29 FYR Macedonia        216
34 36 Republic of Ireland  214
35 39 Bulgaria             211
36 31 Azerbaijan           204
------------------------------
37 38 Israel               200
38 40 Estonia              174
39 41 Latvia               166
40 37 Northern Ireland     165
41 42 Belarus              164
42 30 Moldova              153
43 43 Lithuania            145
44 44 Luxembourg           143
45 45 Georgia              142
------------------------------
46 45 Kazakhstan           103
47 47 Cyprus                93
48 48 Malta                 84
49 49 Liechtenstein         34
50 50 Faroe Islands         14
51 51 Andorra                9
52 52 San Marino             0

19 comments:

  1. Great, but I miss Gibraltar. Germany-England-Czech Republic-Montenegro-Israel would be terrible

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because at the moment Gibraltar is not a FIFA-member their EURO 2016 qualifying matches are not included on fifa.com. Technically, this leads to a ranking list without Gibraltar. Wiki states: "Gibraltar is not yet a member of FIFA. However, the GFA aims to become a full FIFA member in time to participate in 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification."

      Delete
    2. Do you know do points obtained by Poland and Ireland (and other teams) vs. Gibraltar count for the FIFA ranking if Gibraltar are not a member of FIFA? What if Gibraltar joins the FIFA in the middle of qualifying tournament, would points then be calculated retroactively for the time they were not a member?

      Delete
    3. Well, at the moment Gibraltar's opponents do not obtain points for their matches as Gibraltar is not a FIFA-member yet and does not appear in the FIFA-ranking.

      As soon as Gibraltar is a full FIFA-member -and according to the Wiki-statement that will be before July 2015 when the WC-2018 qualification draw is performed- FIFA could certainly retroactively include all the EURO-2016 qualification matches of Gibraltar into their fixture-list, calculating the matchpoints for the already played matches with the ranking at the moment of Gibraltar's admission and Gibraltar at spot 210 in that ranking.

      Delete
  2. what about CAF?
    Is there is new qualification format for 2018?
    or will be the same one as 2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. @Hossam Hassan

      I remember reading somewhere about change a format in CAF.

      Delete
  3. Any chance to Portugal miss the top seed position?
    Hey Edgar, can't you put the probability (%) of the teams already locked or almost locked as seeds?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. With one year until the draw, no team is locked as seed. You need more than 1000 points to be seeded.

      Delete
    2. For Comparison

      Aug 2010 FIFA rankings for top 9 UEFA teams
      1. Spain 1883
      2. Netherlands 1659
      4. Germany 1464
      7. England 1125
      8. Portugal 1062
      11. Italy 982
      12. Greece 975
      13. Serbia 969
      14. Croatia 968

      22. Norway 878

      July 2011 FIFA Rankings
      1. Spain 1588
      2. Netherlands 1542
      3. Germany 1305
      6. England 1146
      7. Portugal 1076
      8. Italy 1059
      9. Croatia 1033
      12. Norway 972
      13. Greece 959

      27. Serbia 798

      As you can see that Aug 2010 top 9 UEFA FIFA ranked teams did not change much from the July 2011 top 9 UEFA FIFA ranked teams.

      Portugal at present is #7 highest ranked UEFA team.

      It's going to take an epic collapse by Portugal to miss Pot 1 if it is solely based on FIFA rankings as of July 2015.

      Of the teams not currently in Pot 1 Ukraine seems to be the team that has the best chance to jump up.

      Delete
  4. Will you shortly put the 50% of July 2015 FIFA Ranking for CONCACAF, CAF and AFC? And maybe the probabilities in UEFA of each team finishing in each pot.

    ReplyDelete
  5. How on earth were Switzerland ranked first!? - oh yeah, FIFA are based in Zurich

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, they simply had an exceptional run - that's how they were seeded for the final draw.

      Delete
  6. 2nd July 2015, has that date been released by FIFA as the scheduled date for the rankings? I see the draw is announced for 25th July, but I dont see any ranking release schedule for 2015 on their website. Where did you learn of 2nd July? This year the July ranking was released in 17th and 2013 was released July 4th.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2 July was the date of the last match played at the time of this post.

      Delete
    2. It could be critical which date FIFA choose to release the July 2015 rankings. For Netherland after July 12th could see them drop into Pot 2, but before they will be safe with the win against brazil in WC 3rd place playoff still counting at 100%.

      Delete
    3. You're right, but it would be fair to have all the WC14-matches in the same timeframe i.e. the second. So I expect the publishing date of the July 2015 ranking will be July 16th 2015.

      Delete
    4. Thanks. That makes sense to me too.

      Delete
  7. Greece deserve 1st seed always qualify for pazt tournuments ok there playen bad now down manager and some players have no confidence playing for a poor manager like ranneri now he is sacked greece make finals euro 16 and world cup 18

    ReplyDelete