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Friday, December 5, 2014

2015 AFC Asian Cup simulations

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

Top 10 most likely finals:

6.94% - Australia vs. Japan
4.37% - Australia vs. Korea Republic
3.79% - Iran vs. Japan
3.55% - Japan vs. United Arab Emirates
3.41% - Australia vs. Uzbekistan
3.35% - Australia vs. Iran
2.83% - Iran vs. United Arab Emirates
2.71% - Japan vs. Korea Republic
2.40% - Japan vs. Jordan
2.35% - Australia vs. Oman

Eliminated in the group stage

82.81% - Palestine
75.90% - Bahrain
66.61% - Kuwait
61.95% - Oman
58.76% - Saudi Arabia
54.93% - Korea DPR
52.84% - Iraq
51.32% - Qatar
49.99% - China PR
47.55% - Jordan
46.40% - Korea Republic
40.09% - United Arab Emirates
36.32% - Uzbekistan
32.69% - Iran
25.04% - Australia
16.80% - Japan

Reaching the quarterfinals

83.20% - Japan
74.96% - Australia
67.31% - Iran
63.68% - Uzbekistan
59.91% - United Arab Emirates
53.60% - Korea Republic
52.45% - Jordan
50.01% - China PR
48.68% - Qatar
47.16% - Iraq
45.07% - Korea DPR
41.24% - Saudi Arabia
38.05% - Oman
33.39% - Kuwait
24.10% - Bahrain
17.19% - Palestine

Reaching the semifinals

52.53% - Australia
52.35% - Japan
40.26% - Iran
33.86% - United Arab Emirates
31.30% - Korea Republic
30.67% - Uzbekistan
23.12% - Qatar
20.68% - Jordan
19.96% - China PR
19.34% - Oman
17.73% - Iraq
16.65% - Korea DPR
15.55% - Kuwait
14.00% - Saudi Arabia
8.39% - Bahrain
3.61% - Palestine

Reaching the final

33.30% - Australia
30.84% - Japan
21.30% - Iran
17.42% - United Arab Emirates
16.23% - Korea Republic
15.81% - Uzbekistan
10.31% - Qatar
9.26% - Oman
8.43% - Jordan
7.97% - China PR
7.15% - Iraq
6.99% - Korea DPR
6.12% - Kuwait
5.23% - Saudi Arabia
2.77% - Bahrain
0.87% - Palestine

Winners

20.28% - Australia
17.48% - Japan
11.58% - Iran
8.95% - United Arab Emirates
8.30% - Korea Republic
8.10% - Uzbekistan
4.39% - Qatar
4.12% - Oman
3.10% - China PR
2.83% - Jordan
2.81% - Korea DPR
2.53% - Iraq
2.26% - Kuwait
2.02% - Saudi Arabia
1.04% - Bahrain
0.21% - Palestine

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