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Friday, December 5, 2014

2015 Africa Cup of Nations simulations

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

Top 10 most likely finals:

3.32% - Cameroon vs. Côte d'Ivoire
3.18% - Algeria vs. Ghana
2.64% - Algeria vs. Côte d'Ivoire
2.62% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ghana
2.29% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. South Africa
2.24% - Ghana vs. Senegal
2.02% - Algeria vs. Senegal
1.99% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Tunisia
1.98% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Senegal
1.92% - Ghana vs. Tunisia

Eliminated in the group stage

63.88% - Mali
61.46% - Congo
59.60% - Congo DR
58.99% - Equatorial Guinea
54.65% - South Africa
54.44% - Guinea
52.32% - Cape Verde Islands
52.18% - Senegal
51.55% - Zambia
47.79% - Algeria
45.79% - Cameroon
45.38% - Ghana
42.15% - Gabon
37.40% - Burkina Faso
36.53% - Tunisia
35.89% - Côte d'Ivoire

Reaching the quarterfinals

64.11% - Côte d'Ivoire
63.47% - Tunisia
62.60% - Burkina Faso
57.85% - Gabon
54.62% - Ghana
54.21% - Cameroon
52.21% - Algeria
48.45% - Zambia
47.82% - Senegal
47.68% - Cape Verde Islands
45.56% - Guinea
45.35% - South Africa
41.01% - Equatorial Guinea
40.40% - Congo DR
38.54% - Congo
36.12% - Mali

Reaching the semifinals

39.72% - Tunisia
34.09% - Côte d'Ivoire
31.58% - Burkina Faso
31.49% - Ghana
28.28% - Algeria
26.44% - Zambia
26.36% - Gabon
25.44% - Cameroon
25.11% - Cape Verde Islands
24.49% - Senegal
22.93% - South Africa
20.28% - Congo DR
19.58% - Guinea
15.87% - Equatorial Guinea
14.64% - Congo
13.70% - Mali

Reaching the final

23.83% - Côte d'Ivoire
21.78% - Ghana
19.44% - Algeria
16.53% - Cameroon
16.17% - Tunisia
15.97% - Senegal
14.58% - South Africa
12.41% - Burkina Faso
11.95% - Guinea
8.92% - Zambia
8.48% - Cape Verde Islands
8.12% - Gabon
7.55% - Mali
6.22% - Congo DR
4.03% - Equatorial Guinea
4.02% - Congo

Winners

13.86% - Côte d'Ivoire
12.13% - Ghana
11.30% - Algeria
8.59% - Cameroon
8.52% - Senegal
7.70% - South Africa
7.52% - Tunisia
5.97% - Guinea
5.21% - Burkina Faso
3.84% - Zambia
3.66% - Cape Verde Islands
3.44% - Mali
3.43% - Gabon
2.18% - Congo DR
1.39% - Congo
1.26% - Equatorial Guinea

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