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Friday, July 25, 2014

July 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the July FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team.

The most popular opponent for the month of June were Sierra Leone - best opponent for 87 teams.

2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: 'Only' 3 years and 3 months left

Yes, I know, it's too early. However, if FIFA will use again the October 2017 ranking, it means the results taken into account will be from October 2013 to October 2017, thus in less than three months the "0.2" time frame will close.

Needless to say, some big teams have had an unimpressive start or should I say they forgot to start?

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for AFC (25 July 2014)

The qualifying system has already been announced by AFC.

Assumptions:

- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- AFC will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding the first group stage draw

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for CAF (25 July 2014)

Assumptions:

- CAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CAF will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for CONCACAF (25 July 2014)

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CONCACAF will choose the March 2015 ranking for seeding

Friday, July 18, 2014

FIFA Ranking: August 2014 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 August.

22 matches left to be played.

Of the teams involved in these matches, the one that could climb highest is Sierra Leone. They could climb to 43rd. This means the top 42 is already set.


FIFA Ranking: August 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the August 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: August 2014 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 August.

22 matches left to be played.

Of the teams involved in these matches, the one that could climb highest is Sierra Leone. They could climb to 43rd. This means the top 42 is already set.


Confederation weightings for the next 4 years

Unless FIFA tweaks the formula somehow, these are the values that will be used for the next 4 years (up to and including the 2018 FIFA World Cup final).

Friday, July 11, 2014

FIFA Ranking: July 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 17 July.

4 matches left. Two African friendlies and the last two matches of the World Cup.

Uganda - Seychelles
Rwanda - Gabon
Brazil - Netherlands
Germany - Argentina

This is how the points and ranking could change for these 8 teams:

Confederation weightings update (11 July 2014)

After the semifinals.

CONMEBOL sure to remain on top.

Friday, July 4, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for UEFA (4 July 2014)

I received last week an e-mail from someone at Deloitte with questions about the 2018 seeding for Europe. I planned to update this after the World Cup, but since the 4 remaining UEFA teams are in the first pot and there are no other matches involving European teams before the 0.5 time frame closes, here's the current situation.

Assumptions:

- UEFA will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- UEFA will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding

2014 World Cup Castrol Index bottom 11

See the 2010 World Cup bottom 11 and EURO 2012 bottom 11.

Based on the Castrol Index.

Restricting the field to players that have played in at least 50% of the team playing time (i.e. 135 minutes for a team knocked out in the group stage).

Bottom 10 goalkeepers