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Friday, February 20, 2015

FIFA Ranking: March 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 March.

Only two matches left, both friendlies between Bermuda and Grenada on 6th and 8th March. The top 147 is already set.

This is how the points and rankings could change for these two teams.


Team - Min points - Max points - Worst rank - Best rank

Grenada 120 156 159 148
Bermuda 55 106 180 163

In the table below I've used the minimum points for these teams.

Best movers:

9 - St. Lucia
8 - Northern Ireland, Rwanda, Afghanistan
7 - Venezuela, Mauritania, Liechtenstein

Worst movers:

-25 - Lebanon
-13 - Palestine
-12 - Myanmar

For Lebanon it will also be the worst ever move. They dropped 23 spots in October 1995.

Best movers in the top 50:

8 - Northern Ireland
6 - Israel, Poland
2 - Italy, Romania, Iceland, Hungary

Worst movers in the top 50:

-4 - Ukraine, Cameroon
-3 - Greece, Wales, Cape Verde Islands, Congo
-2 - England

One team will improve its best ever ranking:

Rwanda (64 - 68 in December 2014).

Two teams will return to their worst ever ranking:

Syria (152 - 152 in September 2014)
Chinese Taipei (188 - 188 in October 2014)

Two teams will drop to new lows:

Sweden (45 - 44 in February 2015)
India (172 - 171 in December 2014)

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

Mauritania (116 - 114 in March 2008) - 7 years
Romania (14 - 13 in September 2008) - 6 years and 6 months
Poland (34 - 29 in March 2009) - 6 years
Czech Republic (16 - 15 in October 2009) - 5 years and 5 months
Tanzania (101 - 99 in October 2009) - 5 years and 5 months
Turks and Caicos Islands (at least 175 - 174 in February 2010) - 5 years and 1 month
Israel (26 - 26 in May 2010) - 4 years and 10 months
Mozambique (86 - 80 in August 2010) - 4 years and 7 months
Uganda (74 - 70 in November 2010) - 4 years and 4 months
Barbados (141 - 141 in June 2011) - 3 years and 9 months
Liechtenstein (123 - 118 in September 2011) - 3 years and 6 months
Latvia (95 - 94 in September 2012) - 2 years and 6 months
Gabon (54 - 49 in January 2013) - 2 years and 2 months

Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

Paraguay (80 - 81 in September 1995) - 19 years and 6 months
Mongolia (195 - 196 in February 2001) - 14 years and 1 month
Greece (27 - 32 in August 2006) - 8 years and 7 months
Honduras (81 - 81 in September 2006) - 8 years and 6 months
Spain (11 - 12 in January 2007) - 8 years and 2 months
Nicaragua (185 - 185 in November 2008) - 6 years and 4 months
Azerbaijan (138 - 139 in September 2009) - 5 years and 6 months
Montenegro (67 - 73 in August 2010) - 4 years and 7 months
Morocco (89 - 95 in September 2010) - 4 years and 6 months
Jordan (102 - 107 in January 2011) - 4 years and 2 months
Zimbabwe (124 - 126 in May 2011) - 3 years and 10 months
Sierra Leone (87 - 92 in August 2011) - 3 years and 7 months
Lebanon (146 - 146 in October 2011) - 3 years and 5 months
Sao Tome e Principe (at most 178 - 196 in January 2012) - 3 years and 2 months
USA (32 - 33 in March 2013) - 2 years
Tajikistan (140 - 152 in March 2013) - 2 years

Congo DR will be ranked above Cameroon for the first time ever.
Liechtenstein will be ranked above Georgia for the first time ever.
Mauritania will be ranked above Canada for the first time ever.
Pakistan will be ranked above India for the first time ever.
Rwanda will be ranked above Bulgaria, Norway and Republic of Ireland for the first time ever.
Faroe Islands will be ranked above FYR Macedonia for the first time in the last 20 years and 10 months.
Italy will be ranked above Spain for the first time in the last 6 years and 9 months.
Romania will be ranked above England for the first time in the last 6 years and 6 months.
Czech Republic will be ranked above England for the first time in the last 6 years and 4 months.


March 2015 rank - Team - March 2015 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Germany 1770 0 41
2 Argentina 1577 0 43
3 Colombia 1499 0 43
4 Belgium 1471 0 41
5 Netherlands 1415 0 30
6 Brazil 1348 0 15
7 Portugal 1191 0 2
8 France 1180 0 12
9 Uruguay 1164 0 18
10 Italy 1146 2 34
11 Spain 1130 -1 -14
12 Switzerland 1126 -1 9
13 Costa Rica 1095 0 21
14 Romania 1081 2 59
15 Chile 1057 -1 20
16 Czech Republic 1045 1 55
17 England 1031 -2 3
18 Algeria 986 0 5
19 Croatia 963 0 18
20 Côte d'Ivoire 944 0 12
21 Mexico 935 0 23
22 Slovakia 932 0 29
23 Austria 916 0 35
24 Ghana 887 1 23
25 Tunisia 881 1 21
26 Israel 880 6 75
27 Greece 872 -3 1
28 Denmark 863 0 17
29 Ecuador 852 0 12
30 Bosnia-Herzegovina 841 0 9
31 Ukraine 838 -4 -21
32 USA 828 -1 4
33 Russia 788 0 -4
34 Poland 778 6 69
35 Iceland 776 2 33
36 Senegal 772 0 28
37 Wales 763 -3 -1
38 Cape Verde Islands 761 -3 5
39 Scotland 727 -1 -11
40 Serbia 709 -1 -14
41 Iran 691 0 -9
42 Nigeria 684 0 20
43 Northern Ireland 679 8 53
44 Guinea 669 -1 7
45 Sweden 663 -1 9
46 Hungary 659 2 25
47 Congo DR 651 -1 10
48 Slovenia 649 -1 9
49 Cameroon 646 -4 0
50 Equatorial Guinea 630 -1 0
51 Mali 626 2 13
52 Congo 625 -3 -5
53 Japan 617 2 12
54 Gabon 610 4 25
55 South Africa 608 1 16
56 Korea Republic 594 -2 -14
56 Turkey 594 -4 -25
58 Egypt 582 -1 -8
59 Peru 565 0 -1
60 Zambia 560 0 4
61 Albania 557 2 9
61 Panama 557 0 2
63 Trinidad and Tobago 553 -1 2
64 Rwanda 550 8 58
65 Australia 549 -2 1
66 Republic of Ireland 537 1 16
67 Montenegro 531 -2 -6
68 Burkina Faso 529 0 16
69 United Arab Emirates 523 -3 -6
70 Norway 522 -1 10
71 Bulgaria 501 -1 -5
72 Venezuela 485 7 45
73 Uzbekistan 483 -2 -10
74 Uganda 478 2 14
75 Togo 466 0 1
76 Jamaica 463 3 23
77 Haiti 454 1 0
78 Finland 450 -5 -25
79 Armenia 437 -5 -33
80 Paraguay 434 -1 -6
81 Honduras 433 -4 -26
82 Guatemala 425 0 -4
83 China PR 423 -1 -6
84 Angola 403 0 12
85 Cyprus 398 4 22
86 Mozambique 385 4 14
87 Estonia 379 -2 -6
87 Sierra Leone 379 -1 -3
89 El Salvador 378 -2 -3
89 Morocco 378 -1 0
91 Malawi 376 2 15
92 Benin 372 3 13
92 Bolivia 372 0 10
94 Lithuania 364 2 9
95 Latvia 361 5 19
96 Oman 356 -5 -12
97 Iraq 353 -3 -7
98 Belarus 346 3 15
99 Antigua and Barbuda 340 0 -4
100 Saudi Arabia 339 -2 -12
101 Tanzania 331 6 16
102 Jordan 326 -5 -27
103 Ethiopia 325 -1 2
104 Bahrain 319 -1 -3
105 Faroe Islands 317 0 0
106 Botswana 316 -1 -1
107 Dominican Republic 310 1 0
108 FYR Macedonia 308 -4 -12
109 Qatar 300 0 -5
109 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 300 1 0
111 Cuba 288 3 17
111 Sudan 288 1 0
113 Libya 281 0 0
114 Namibia 277 -3 -16
115 Niger 271 3 8
116 Mauritania 268 7 17
117 Canada 266 0 2
118 Liberia 264 -3 -4
119 Kenya 263 -3 -3
120 Lesotho 257 5 14
121 St. Kitts and Nevis 244 -2 -14
122 Moldova 243 -1 -11
123 Liechtenstein 238 7 15
124 Zimbabwe 237 -5 -21
125 Kuwait 231 3 0
126 Burundi 225 -2 -24
126 Georgia 225 0 -9
128 Aruba 221 4 0
128 Philippines 221 4 0
130 Vietnam 220 2 -1
131 St. Lucia 216 9 14
132 Maldives 214 3 -6
133 Guinea-Bissau 211 5 -1
133 New Zealand 211 3 -5
135 Luxembourg 209 -6 -16
136 Afghanistan 203 8 22
137 Kazakhstan 199 2 -4
138 Azerbaijan 198 -7 -24
139 Palestine 194 -13 -40
140 Tajikistan 192 -3 -23
141 Barbados 191 1 0
142 Thailand 189 1 5
143 Central African Republic 178 2 0
144 Turkmenistan 175 3 5
145 Malta 168 4 4
146 Lebanon 164 -25 -90
147 Madagascar 163 1 -3
148 Chad 155 -2 -22
149 Korea DPR 149 3 5
150 Kyrgyzstan 146 1 0
151 New Caledonia 143 2 0
152 Syria 141 -2 -6
153 Malaysia 137 1 -5
153 Myanmar 137 -12 -61
153 Singapore 137 3 1
156 Indonesia 129 2 1
157 Hong Kong 127 2 0
158 Curaçao 125 2 0
159 Grenada 120 -4 -17
160 Puerto Rico 119 2 0
161 Suriname 115 3 0
162 Bangladesh 112 -5 -17
163 Swaziland 106 2 3
164 Belize 100 3 0
164 Tahiti 100 3 0
166 Guyana 94 0 -7
167 Guam 93 -5 -26
168 Gambia 90 1 -5
169 Laos 88 -8 -35
169 Pakistan 88 2 3
171 Montserrat 86 -1 0
172 India 74 -1 -11
173 Sri Lanka 73 0 -5
174 Turks and Caicos Islands 66 2 0
175 Yemen 65 4 5
176 Comoros 64 -2 -11
177 Seychelles 61 0 -1
178 Sao Tome e Principe 58 -4 -17
179 Nepal 57 1 2
180 Bermuda 55 0 0
180 Cambodia 55 4 2
180 Dominica 55 0 0
180 San Marino 55 0 0
184 Solomon Islands 53 0 0
185 Nicaragua 51 -8 -10
185 Timor-Leste 51 2 0
187 Macau 45 1 -5
188 Chinese Taipei 43 -4 -10
188 South Sudan 43 1 0
190 Mauritius 36 0 0
191 Vanuatu 34 0 0
192 Fiji 30 0 0
192 Samoa 30 0 0
194 Bahamas 26 1 0
195 Mongolia 25 -1 -4
196 Tonga 17 0 0
197 US Virgin Islands 16 0 0
198 Brunei Darussalam 15 0 0
199 Papua New Guinea 13 0 0
200 American Samoa 12 0 0
201 Andorra 8 0 -1
201 British Virgin Islands 8 1 0
201 Eritrea 8 1 0
204 Somalia 6 0 0
205 Cayman Islands 5 0 0
206 Cook Islands 4 0 0
206 Djibouti 4 0 0
208 Anguilla 2 0 0
209 Bhutan 0 0 0

11 comments:

  1. Afghanistan will play on March 31st against Kyrgyzstan in a friendly. If the next ranking is used for seeding of teams in AFC World Cup Qualifiers, what is the chance for Afghanistan to climb to the second pot?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Assuming that everything (and especially the first round of Asian World Cup qualifiers in March) goes according to the ELO-predictions, the predicted draw against Kyrgyzstan leaves Afghanistan with 199 points in the April ranking, at third spot in pot 3 behind India and Maldives.
      If they win they will climb to 207 points and will be first in pot 3, but the gap to Vietnam and Kuwait (last in pot 2 with 229 points) will still be considerable.

      Delete
  2. with our preliminary group for EURO 2016, Romania can have a better rank :D

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Edgar, what France needs to do to be a seed instead of the Czechs

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. France has friendlies scheduled in March and June against Brazil, Denmark, Belgium and Albania. All are predicted wins except the first against Brazil which would end in a draw according to elo. If France wins that one they will overtake Croatia and climb to 10th in the UEFA ranking, but that would still be pot 2.
      So they need one of their direct opponents for pot 1 to falter: Czech Republic (EURO-qualifier win against Latvia, friendly draw against Slovakia, EURO-qualifier draw against Iceland), Italy (EURO-qualifier win against Bulgaria, friendly draw against England, EURO-qualifier draw against Croatia, friendly draw against Portugal) or Spain (EURO-qualifier win against Ukraine, friendly loss against the Netherlands, EURO-qualifier win against Belarus). All opponents have some room to improve on their elo-predictions, so France will be dependent on performances of other teams the coming months anyway.

      Delete
  4. Edgar, maybe you know the answer to my question. In your (and my) calculation, Antigua and Barbuda has 340 pts. in the March ranking. However, in the official FIFA ranking, they have 325 pts. I cannot find anything to justify the FIFA-points. Is this just again a mistake by FIFA or is there something else going on?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tobcoach, the friendly Antigua-US Virgin Islands (2:0, played March 8th) was incorporated in the fixtures list when the March ranking was calculated. Right afterwards this match was excluded from the fixtures list.

      Delete
    2. Ah, that makes sense. To be honest, I haven't kept track of the rankings for a little while so I missed that. Thanks Ed!

      Delete