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Friday, March 20, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

Only one spot left - it will be either Pakistan or Yemen - as the return leg was rescheduled because of the Lahore church bombings.




As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 19 March 2015.

Yemen are heavy favorites to advance: 96.58%

Assuming Yemen advance, this is how the pots would look like. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims. Should Pakistan advance, they will be in pot 4.


Pot 1: Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Australia, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, China PR, Iraq
Pot 2: Oman, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Vietnam, Kuwait, Maldives
Pot 3: Afghanistan, Thailand, Philippines, Palestine, Lebanon, India, Syria, Tajikistan
Pot 4: Kyrgyzstan, Timor-Leste, Korea DPR, Myanmar, Turkmenistan, Singapore, Indonesia, Yemen
Pot 5: Bhutan, Malaysia, Guam, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, Laos, Cambodia, Chinese Taipei


Broken down by pot:


Pot 5


100.00% - Hong Kong
100.00% - Chinese Taipei
100.00% - Laos
100.00% - Bangladesh
100.00% - Cambodia
99.88% - Guam
80.84% - Malaysia
57.32% - Bhutan
33.94% - Yemen
23.79% - Indonesia
2.92% - Singapore
1.31% - Turkmenistan


Pot 4


100.00% - Korea DPR
100.00% - Myanmar
98.69% - Turkmenistan
97.08% - Singapore
86.60% - Timor-Leste
81.67% - Kyrgyzstan
63.88% - Indonesia
62.64% - Yemen
42.68% - Bhutan
21.65% - Syria
19.16% - Malaysia
17.53% - Tajikistan
4.88% - India
0.12% - Guam


Pot 3


100.00% - Palestine
100.00% - Lebanon
95.12% - India
94.06% - Philippines
85.87% - Thailand
82.47% - Tajikistan
70.48% - Afghanistan
64.25% - Syria
63.69% - Maldives
18.33% - Kyrgyzstan
13.40% - Timor-Leste
12.33% - Indonesia


Pot 2


100.00% - Kuwait
100.00% - Vietnam
100.00% - Qatar
99.97% - Bahrain
97.93% - Jordan
92.21% - Saudi Arabia
60.87% - Oman
49.02% - Iraq
36.31% - Maldives
29.52% - Afghanistan
14.13% - Thailand
14.10% - Syria
5.94% - Philippines


Pot 1


100.00% - Korea Republic
100.00% - Uzbekistan
100.00% - Australia
100.00% - United Arab Emirates
100.00% - Japan
100.00% - Iran
100.00% - China PR
50.98% - Iraq
39.13% - Oman
7.79% - Saudi Arabia
2.07% - Jordan
0.03% - Bahrain

3 comments:

  1. As I commented elsewhere, I think it would have made more sense if the winners from the first (preliminary) round were automatically allocated to pot 5 at the second round draw. If no such preliminary round existed, those teams would be in the bottom pot by default. Now, one of those teams (India) has climbed to pot 3 and another two or even three of them will have climbed to pot 4. Too much of a benefit for a lowest-ranked team just because it was a lowest-ranked teams and had to play two quite "important" (FIFA Rankings-wise) matches against another lowest-ranked team.

    Since the draw for the second stage will be held on 14 April, and that stage will continue into 2016, does that mean that the AFC will not be represented in the main qualifying draw in July?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The AFC will not be represented at the main qualifying draw. Also, is it worth being eliminated in the playoff round just so you can have the chance to increase your position in the rankings.

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    2. I think all draws should be made using the same ranking, and more specifically the ranking immediatly following the previous World Cup.

      Delete