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Friday, April 17, 2015

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (17 April 2015)

Long overdue post. And it's quite long.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 15 April 2015.

Best 3rd most like to come out of group:



18.14% - Group A
17.06% - Group C
16.54% - Group G
15.43% - Group D
9.22% - Group E
8.42% - Group H
5.59% - Group B
5.40% - Group F
4.20% - Group I

Top 10 most likely best 3rd team:

12.55% - Ukraine
7.62% - Russia
7.32% - Iceland
6.09% - Netherlands
5.91% - Scotland
5.82% - Slovenia
5.06% - Sweden
4.72% - Poland
4.46% - Norway
3.91% - Czech Republic

Top 10 most likely to be involved in play-offs:

68.59% - Norway
59.44% - Ukraine
55.53% - Slovenia
50.44% - Israel
49.09% - Albania
42.81% - Hungary
32.03% - Russia
31.51% - Scotland
31.35% - Iceland
29.91% - Republic of Ireland

Top 10 most likely to be seeded in the play-offs:

58.13% - Ukraine
31.68% - Russia
31.25% - Hungary
28.69% - Switzerland
27.13% - Sweden
26.22% - Netherlands
23.30% - Slovenia
19.92% - Republic of Ireland
19.49% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
17.28% - Norway

Top 10 most likely to qualify through play-offs:

40.76% - Ukraine
24.90% - Norway
23.58% - Slovenia
23.36% - Netherlands
20.34% - Israel
20.02% - Russia
19.85% - Hungary
19.22% - Switzerland
18.38% - Sweden
17.78% - Republic of Ireland

Most likely to qualify for the final tournament:

99.93% - England
98.70% - Germany
98.59% - Croatia
98.55% - Spain
98.39% - Slovakia
98.22% - Belgium
97.99% - Romania
97.89% - Italy
97.81% - Portugal
94.33% - Austria
91.86% - Czech Republic
91.22% - Netherlands
87.34% - Sweden
86.14% - Switzerland
85.49% - Denmark
82.80% - Wales
81.55% - Russia
79.12% - Ukraine
77.41% - Iceland
76.55% - Poland
72.79% - Northern Ireland
60.10% - Slovenia
51.51% - Hungary
48.96% - Scotland
45.79% - Israel
39.82% - Albania
38.73% - Norway
36.94% - Republic of Ireland
16.78% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
16.57% - Serbia
11.07% - Finland
8.34% - Greece
8.32% - Turkey
7.65% - Bulgaria
5.36% - Montenegro
3.39% - Lithuania
3.31% - Armenia
2.04% - Cyprus
1.06% - Estonia
0.96% - Belarus
0.20% - Azerbaijan
0.19% - Latvia
0.07% - Faroe Islands
0.07% - FYR Macedonia
0.05% - Georgia
0.03% - Liechtenstein
0.02% - Moldova

Final tournament draw

Pot 4

82.23% - Wales
73.57% - Iceland
72.79% - Northern Ireland
47.50% - Scotland
41.82% - Slovenia
39.81% - Albania
35.70% - Israel
31.13% - Norway
21.36% - Slovakia
21.08% - Poland
19.21% - Denmark
17.29% - Republic of Ireland
15.71% - Hungary
15.65% - Austria
15.00% - Serbia
11.07% - Finland
7.65% - Bulgaria
6.95% - Romania
4.96% - Montenegro
4.36% - Turkey
3.39% - Lithuania
3.27% - Armenia
2.49% - Czech Republic
2.04% - Cyprus
1.06% - Estonia
0.96% - Belarus
0.82% - Ukraine
0.43% - Sweden
0.20% - Azerbaijan
0.19% - Latvia
0.07% - Faroe Islands
0.07% - FYR Macedonia
0.05% - Georgia
0.04% - Russia
0.03% - Switzerland
0.03% - Liechtenstein
0.02% - Moldova

Pot 3

71.34% - Austria
71.22% - Slovakia
66.22% - Romania
65.48% - Czech Republic
60.70% - Denmark
51.28% - Poland
44.03% - Sweden
34.71% - Hungary
20.17% - Switzerland
19.57% - Republic of Ireland
18.66% - Ukraine
18.24% - Slovenia
14.04% - Russia
10.08% - Israel
8.04% - Croatia
7.58% - Norway
4.11% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
3.96% - Turkey
3.84% - Iceland
1.76% - Greece
1.57% - Serbia
1.46% - Scotland
0.85% - Portugal
0.57% - Wales
0.40% - Montenegro
0.06% - Italy
0.04% - Armenia
0.01% - Albania
0.01% - England

Pot 2

87.59% - Croatia
74.14% - Portugal
67.34% - Russia
65.85% - Switzerland
58.75% - Ukraine
54.43% - Italy
42.87% - Sweden
33.38% - Belgium
24.82% - Romania
23.89% - Czech Republic
23.36% - England
12.67% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
7.34% - Austria
6.58% - Greece
5.81% - Slovakia
5.58% - Denmark
4.19% - Poland
1.09% - Hungary
0.17% - Netherlands
0.08% - Republic of Ireland
0.04% - Slovenia
0.02% - Norway
0.01% - Israel

Pot 1

98.70% - Germany
98.55% - Spain
91.05% - Netherlands
76.56% - England
64.84% - Belgium
43.40% - Italy
22.82% - Portugal
2.96% - Croatia
0.89% - Ukraine
0.13% - Russia
0.09% - Switzerland
0.01% - Sweden



8 comments:

  1. Hi!

    any idea to what happened to the eloratings website?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Works for me. I assume it was down because it had used up all its bandwidth.

      Delete
  2. UEFA NT-ranking after the matches played this weekend and including all the elo-predicted EURO-qualifiers until October. Indicated are the group spots after EURO-qualifying (Q1 and Q2: spot 1 and 2 in the group, Qq: best nr. 3, q1-8: numbers three of the 8 remaining groups sorted on October 2015 NT-coeff). Please keep in mind that the elo-predictions I use are only 1:0, 0:0 or 0:1. As the scored goals do count in the NT-coefficient, this is only a realistic indication of the resulting coefficient. This ranking plus the results of the November play-offs is used as seeding ranking for the EURO 2016 finals draw. Host France and reigning European champion Spain (when qualified) are always seeded in pot 1:


    33,599 France -
    37,062 Spain Q1
    41,456 Germany Q1
    37,439 Netherlands Q1
    35,782 England Q1
    35,138 Portugal Q1
    ----------------------------
    34,362 Belgium Q2
    34,324 Italy Q2
    32,682 Croatia Q1
    31,154 Switzerland Q2
    30,268 Sweden Q2
    29,638 Romania Q1
    ----------------------------
    29,423 Czech Republic Q2
    29,190 Denmark Q2
    28,792 Austria Q1
    28,411 Slovakia Q2
    25,788 Iceland Qq
    25,341 Wales Q1
    ----------------------------
    25,219 Scotland Q2
    21,681 Northern Ireland Q2

    ----------------------------
    31,205 Russia q1
    30,839 Ukraine q2
    30,326 Bosnia-Herzegovina q3
    27,585 Poland q4
    27,142 Hungary q5
    26,241 Slovenia q6
    22,026 Bulgaria q7
    20,516 Albania q8

    ----------------------------
    27,914 Greece
    25,601 Republic of Ireland
    25,313 Turkey
    24,941 Israel
    23,919 Norway
    22,701 Serbia
    22,551 Montenegro
    20,341 Finland
    19,551 Armenia
    19,449 Estonia
    18,898 Lithuania
    18,246 Belarus
    17,381 Azerbaijan
    17,331 Latvia
    17,081 Moldova
    16,486 Georgia
    16,361 FYR Macedonia
    15,658 Cyprus
    12,925 Liechtenstein
    12,740 Faroe Islands
    12,680 Luxembourg
    12,441 Kazakhstan
    10,910 Malta
    8,680 Andorra
    8,350 San Marino
    8,150 Gibraltar

    ReplyDelete
  3. Can't see Iceland being the best qualifier if the Netherlands top the group, they'd have to slide a fair bit. Group F or D seem to be the best bet, I'm going to stick my neck out here and say best 3rd place ... GERMANY.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Find it strange Germany are more certain than Slovakia, they've used up their games with Gibraltar and have had tight games with the top four with one home win and one home draw. One bad result i.e. An away defeat to Scotland or Rep. Ireland or a home defeat to Poland and top 2 is far from guaranteed.

      Delete
    2. Well, all above is of course according to elo and in that ranking Germany is far and away the best of that group. So elo predicts 4 wins, no matter the opposition,

      Delete
  4. Elo predicts two home-wins and two away-losses for Iceland: so they become best third with 15 points, 1 point better than the third-placed teams from group D (Poland) and group C (Ukraine).

    Third-placed of group F (Hungary) is predicted to lose quite some points this autumn and reaches only 11 points.

    In group D Germany is of course predicted to win the group comfortably, while Scotland and Poland end at the same points-total, their head-to-head will be decisive.

    Kevin, you are a bold predictor, to say the least !

    ReplyDelete