Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (23 September 2016)
TwitterLinked In

Friday, April 3, 2015

FIFA Ranking: April 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 April.

Best movers:

46 - Bhutan
40 - Bermuda
33 - Timor-Leste

Worst movers:

-23 - New Caledonia
-22 - Tahiti
-20 - Israel

Best movers in the top 50:

15 - Wales
10 - Scotland
6 - Sweden

Worst movers in the top 50:

-20 - Israel
-11 - Equatorial Guinea
-7 - Congo DR

Five teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Belgium (3 - 4 in October 2014)
Wales (22 - 27 in August 1993)
Faroe Islands (102 - 103 in January 2015)
Timor-Leste (152 - 182 in December 2012)
Bhutan (163 - 187 in December 2003)

Two teams will return to their worst ever ranking:

Mongolia (200 - 200 in February 2000)
Somalia (206 - 206 in November 2014)

Nine teams will drop to new lows:

Suriname (169 - 168 in April 2001)
Solomon Islands (192 - 184 in April 2012)
Vanuatu (195 - 191 in June 2013)
Fiji (196 - 192 in October 2014)
Bahamas (198 - 197 in March 1999)
Eritrea (204 - 203 in August 2014)
Djibouti (207 - 206 in March 2015)
Cook Islands (207 - 206 in July 2014)
Anguilla (209 - 208 in November 2014)

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:


Romania (12 - 11 in August 2008) - 6 years and 8 months
Uganda (72 - 70 in November 2010) - 4 years and 5 months
Barbados (130 - 130 in January 2011) - 4 years and 3 months
Slovakia (20 - 20 in February 2011) - 4 years and 2 months
Northern Ireland (42 - 40 in March 2011) - 4 years and 1 month
US Virgin Islands (173 - 169 in October 2011) - 3 years and 6 months
Syria (126 - 126 in June 2012) - 2 years and 10 months
Latvia (85 - 70 in August 2012) - 2 years and 8 months
Bermuda (129 - 120 in October 2012) - 2 years and 6 months
St. Kitts and Nevis (111 - 106 in November 2012) - 2 years and 5 months
Cayman Islands (191 - 189 in November 2012) - 2 years and 5 months

Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:


Georgia (138 - 156 in April 1994) - 21 years
Paraguay (81 - 81 in September 1995) - 19 years and 7 months
Mongolia (200 - 200 in February 2000) - 15 years and 2 months
Korea DPR (157 - 173 in March 2000) - 15 years and 1 month
New Caledonia (174 - 178 in July 2007) - 7 years and 9 months
New Zealand (144 - 156 in September 2007) - 7 years and 7 months
Grenada (165 - 168 in February 2008) - 7 years and 2 months
Montenegro (70 - 73 in August 2010) - 4 years and 8 months
Morocco (91 - 95 in September 2010) - 4 years and 7 months
Puerto Rico (166 - 170 in September 2010) - 4 years and 7 months
Tahiti (186 - 194 in September 2010) - 4 years and 7 months
Jordan (103 - 107 in January 2011) - 4 years and 3 months
Peru (64 - 68 in February 2011) - 4 years and 2 months
Liberia (131 - 157 in May 2011) - 3 years and 11 months
Papua New Guinea (202 - 203 in June 2011) - 3 years and 10 months
Sierra Leone (88 - 92 in August 2011) - 3 years and 8 months
Tonga (201 - 202 in November 2011) - 3 years and 5 months
American Samoa (203 - 204 in November 2011) - 3 years and 5 months
Samoa (196 - 204 in November 2011) - 3 years and 5 months
Sao Tome e Principe (190 - 196 in January 2012) - 3 years and 3 months
Turkmenistan (159 - 166 in March 2012) - 3 years and 1 month
Ecuador (34 - 36 in June 2012) - 2 years and 10 months
Laos (178 - 193 in October 2012) - 2 years and 6 months
Bosnia-Herzegovina (31 - 31 in November 2012) - 2 years and 5 months
Hong Kong (167 - 172 in November 2012) - 2 years and 5 months
Sri Lanka (186 - 193 in February 2013) - 2 years and 2 months
Tajikistan (143 - 152 in March 2013) - 2 years and 1 month
Malaysia (164 - 164 in March 2013) - 2 years and 1 month

Lots of first time ever:

Afghanistan will be ranked above Georgia and New Zealand for the first time ever.
Aruba will be ranked above Georgia for the first time ever.
Bhutan will be ranked above 21 teams for the first time ever: Bangladesh, Cambodia, Cayman Islands, Chinese Taipei, Eritrea, Fiji, Grenada, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Mauritius, Nepal, New Caledonia, Pakistan, Seychelles, Solomon Islands, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Swaziland, Vanuatu, Yemen.
Macau will be ranked above Sri Lanka for the first time ever.
Montserrat will be ranked above New Caledonia for the first time ever.
Nicaragua will be ranked above Korea DPR for the first time ever.
Timor-Leste will be ranked above 21 teams for the first time ever: Bangladesh, Belize, Gambia, Grenada, Guyana, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea DPR, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Caledonia, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico, Sao Tome e Principe, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Suriname, Tahiti, Turkmenistan, Yemen
Wales will be ranked above Denmark and Russia for the first time ever.

Wales will be ranked above USA for the first time in the last 21 years and 8 months.
Wales will be ranked above Greece for the first time in the last 21 years.
Switzerland will be ranked above Spain for the first time in the last 20 years and 11 months.
Luxembourg will be ranked above Georgia for the first time in the last 20 years and 9 months.
Romania will be ranked above Italy for the first time in the last 14 years and 10 months.
India will be ranked above Korea DPR for the first time in the last 12 years and 1 month.
Wales will be ranked above Côte d'Ivoire for the first time in the last 10 years and 7 months.
Iran will be ranked above Serbia for the first time in the last 8 years and 11 months.
Scotland will be ranked above Russia for the first time in the last 6 years and 10 months.
Wales will be ranked above Bosnia-Herzegovina for the first time in the last 6 years and 3 months.

March 2015 rank - Team - March 2015 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Germany 1687 0 -83
2 Argentina 1490 0 -87
3 Belgium 1457 1 -14
4 Colombia 1412 -1 -87
5 Brazil 1354 1 6
6 Netherlands 1301 -1 -114
7 Portugal 1221 0 30
8 Uruguay 1176 1 12
9 Switzerland 1135 3 9
10 Spain 1132 1 2
11 France 1127 -3 -53
12 Romania 1086 2 5
13 Italy 1085 -3 -61
14 England 1030 3 -1
15 Costa Rica 1014 -2 -81
16 Chile 991 -1 -66
17 Croatia 977 2 14
18 Mexico 937 3 2
19 Czech Republic 923 -3 -122
20 Slovakia 920 2 -12
21 Algeria 917 -3 -69
22 Wales 916 15 153
23 Côte d'Ivoire 907 -3 -37
24 Greece 900 3 28
25 Austria 891 -2 -25
26 Ghana 833 -2 -54
27 USA 815 5 -13
28 Denmark 808 0 -55
29 Scotland 796 10 69
30 Tunisia 793 -5 -88
31 Bosnia-Herzegovina 783 -1 -58
32 Russia 781 1 -7
33 Ukraine 772 -2 -66
34 Ecuador 759 -5 -93
35 Poland 753 -1 -25
36 Senegal 752 0 -20
37 Cape Verde Islands 737 1 -24
38 Iceland 728 -3 -48
39 Sweden 704 6 41
40 Iran 689 2 -3
41 Guinea 678 3 9
42 Northern Ireland 672 1 -7
43 Hungary 665 3 6
44 Serbia 664 -4 -45
45 Nigeria 652 -4 -49
46 Israel 649 -20 -231
47 Slovenia 648 1 -1
48 Cameroon 627 1 -19
49 Congo 624 3 -1
50 Japan 614 3 -3
51 Egypt 612 7 30
52 Turkey 603 4 9
53 Panama 587 8 30
54 Congo DR 584 -7 -67
55 Gabon 583 -1 -27
56 Mali 578 -5 -48
57 Albania 575 4 18
57 Korea Republic 575 -1 -19
59 Zambia 556 1 -4
60 South Africa 553 -5 -55
61 Equatorial Guinea 549 -11 -81
62 Republic of Ireland 546 4 9
63 Australia 531 2 -18
64 Peru 526 -5 -39
65 Trinidad and Tobago 519 -2 -34
66 Burkina Faso 517 2 -12
67 Bulgaria 505 4 4
68 United Arab Emirates 501 1 -22
69 Venezuela 495 3 12
70 Montenegro 491 -3 -40
70 Norway 491 0 -31
72 Uganda 485 2 7
73 Uzbekistan 476 -1 -7
74 Rwanda 474 -10 -76
75 Jamaica 466 1 3
76 Honduras 451 5 18
77 Armenia 449 2 12
78 Finland 446 0 -4
79 Haiti 442 -2 -12
80 Togo 435 -5 -31
81 Paraguay 418 -1 -16
82 China PR 408 1 -15
83 Belarus 397 15 51
84 El Salvador 388 5 10
85 Latvia 387 10 26
86 Iraq 385 11 32
86 Mozambique 385 0 0
88 Sierra Leone 382 -1 3
89 Angola 381 -5 -22
90 Guatemala 372 -8 -53
91 Morocco 371 -2 -7
92 Bolivia 360 0 -12
93 Estonia 358 -6 -21
94 Benin 357 -2 -15
95 Saudi Arabia 349 4 10
96 Cyprus 342 -11 -56
97 Malawi 341 -6 -35
97 Oman 341 -1 -15
99 Qatar 337 10 37
100 Lithuania 333 -6 -31
101 Ethiopia 321 1 -4
102 Faroe Islands 318 3 1
103 Jordan 316 -2 -10
104 Botswana 314 2 -2
105 FYR Macedonia 312 3 4
106 Antigua and Barbuda 311 -4 -14
107 Tanzania 302 -7 -29
108 Bahrain 299 -4 -20
109 Cuba 298 1 10
110 Sudan 288 0 0
111 Libya 281 1 0
111 St. Kitts and Nevis 281 10 37
113 Namibia 279 0 2
114 Canada 277 2 11
115 Azerbaijan 264 24 66
116 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 262 3 2
117 Kenya 258 1 -5
118 Dominican Republic 257 -11 -53
119 Niger 252 -5 -19
120 Mauritania 246 -5 -22
121 Moldova 245 1 2
122 Lesotho 242 -2 -15
123 Burundi 237 3 12
123 Zimbabwe 237 1 0
125 Vietnam 229 5 9
126 Syria 225 26 84
127 Kuwait 224 -2 -7
128 Liechtenstein 219 -5 -19
129 Bermuda 217 40 128
130 Barbados 215 1 -3
131 Guinea-Bissau 212 3 1
131 Liberia 212 -14 -52
133 Kazakhstan 210 5 11
134 Aruba 204 -6 -17
135 Afghanistan 203 2 0
136 St. Lucia 202 -4 -14
137 Luxembourg 200 -1 -9
138 Georgia 197 -12 -28
139 Philippines 193 -11 -28
140 Palestine 192 0 -2
141 Maldives 191 -8 -23
142 Thailand 183 0 -6
143 Tajikistan 175 -2 -17
144 Central African Republic 163 -1 -15
144 Lebanon 163 2 -1
144 New Zealand 163 -10 -48
147 India 161 26 87
148 Curaçao 159 11 34
149 Malta 158 -4 -10
150 Madagascar 156 -3 -7
151 Chad 155 -3 0
152 Timor-Leste 151 33 100
153 Kyrgyzstan 146 -3 0
154 Nicaragua 142 31 91
155 Guyana 139 11 45
156 Gambia 138 12 48
157 Korea DPR 137 -8 -12
158 Myanmar 133 -5 -4
159 Belize 131 5 31
159 Indonesia 131 -3 2
159 Turkmenistan 131 -15 -44
162 Singapore 130 -9 -7
163 Bhutan 128 46 128
164 Malaysia 123 -11 -14
165 Grenada 120 -7 -6
166 Puerto Rico 119 -6 0
167 Bangladesh 116 -5 4
167 Hong Kong 116 -10 -11
169 Suriname 115 -8 0
170 Yemen 111 5 39
171 Montserrat 107 1 21
172 Pakistan 106 -2 18
173 US Virgin Islands 104 24 88
174 New Caledonia 101 -23 -42
175 Guam 97 -8 4
175 Swaziland 97 -12 -9
177 Dominica 96 4 41
178 Laos 88 -8 0
179 Cambodia 86 2 31
179 Chinese Taipei 86 9 43
181 Mauritius 71 9 35
181 Nepal 71 -1 14
183 Brunei Darussalam 69 15 54
184 Macau 66 3 21
184 Turks and Caicos Islands 66 -8 0
186 Comoros 65 -9 1
186 Sri Lanka 65 -12 -8
186 Tahiti 65 -22 -35
189 Seychelles 60 -11 0
190 Sao Tome e Principe 58 -11 0
191 Cayman Islands 48 14 43
192 Solomon Islands 46 -8 -7
193 South Sudan 43 -5 0
194 San Marino 40 -13 -15
195 Vanuatu 34 -4 0
196 Fiji 30 -4 0
196 Samoa 30 -4 0
198 Bahamas 26 -4 0
198 British Virgin Islands 26 3 18
200 Mongolia 19 -5 -6
201 Tonga 17 -5 0
202 Papua New Guinea 13 -3 0
203 American Samoa 12 -3 0
204 Andorra 8 -3 0
204 Eritrea 8 -3 0
206 Somalia 6 -2 0
207 Cook Islands 4 -1 0
207 Djibouti 4 -1 0
209 Anguilla 2 -1 0

23 comments:

  1. Georgia also drops to a new low in April (138 - 126 in November 2014). What's going wrong there, knowing they were steady ranked around spot 70 just a few years ago ?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Egypt will play friendly against Kuwait in May,, if Egypt wins, how many points can gain from this game in July ranking?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Edgar (and Ed),

    i'm trying to fine-tune my excel-spreadsheet and have some problems with rounding-down.

    An example: Burkina Faso's March ranking totals 5654.75 points for the 50% timezone (17 games). 30% timezone gives 5407,25 points for 15 games.
    When i try to calculate the actual points, i get either 136.90 & 108.15 or 136.91 & 108.14. Fifa has got 136.90 & 108.14.

    How do you round down? or don't you round down sometimes and just use X digits?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Jeroen, I sum the unrounded averages per timeframe to a total unrounded points which I only round to present in a ranking table. FIFA used to do it exactly the same way. Since they have a new website and a new layout of presenting the ranking table and midway calculation results, they have some rounding-issues: they round each timeframe average to two decimals. And they round 108.145 down to 108.14, which is against normal math-conventions.

    Example BFA March 2015
    I calculate: 2868.42/11 = 260.765454545455 + (4654.75/17*0.5 =) 136.904411764706 + (5407.25/15*0.3 =) 108.145 + (1391.05/12*0.2 =) 23.1841666666667 = 528.999032976827 = 529.00 = 529
    FIFA presents: 260.77 + 136.90 + 108.14 + 23.18 = 528.99 = 529
    In this case it doesn't matter but I have noticed in the last couple of rankings that for one or two countries there was a difference of 1 FIFA-point (!) between my and their calculation, because of the rounding they apply (in the case the total points are for instance 234.50 exactly). And that could matter a lot when the ranking is used for seeding. Edgar has made a twitter-comment on this issue to FIFA some time ago. Any response on that, Edgar ?

    ReplyDelete
  5. And the worst part is: they don't even do their rounding consistently. Take a look at Cape verde and New Zealand in March:
    CPV two-digit timeframe averages sum up to 671.50: rounded up to 672. I calculate 761.495818181818 points (rounded up to 672)
    NZL two-digit timeframe averages sum up to 216.50: rounded down to 216. I calculate 216.495069230769 points (rounded up to 217). Btw, I just discover that for NZL the February situation is presented in their March ranking table. Huh ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Three examples from the February 2015 ranking with regard to inconsistent FIFA-rounding:
      IRN 342.124 + 222.122 + 72.894 + 63.372 = 700.511490873016 => 700.51 => 701 (up); FIFA 342.12 + 222.12 + 72.89 + 63.37 = 700.50 => 700 (down)
      NZL 42.125 + 92.695 + 77.434 + 4.241 = 216.495069230769 => 216.50 => 217 (up); FIFA 42.13 + 92.70 + 77.43 + 4.24 = 216.50 => 216 (down)
      SEY 25.500 + 26.316 + 0.000 + 9.675 = 61.491 => 61.49 => 61 (down); FIFA 25.50 + 26.32 + 0.00 + 9.68 = 61.50 => 62 (up).

      I round in this way: first on the third decimal to get rounded two-decimal numbers and then on the first decimal to get integer values. All rounding is according to math-convention: 5 or more is +1, 4 or less is +0. So 0.4950000 = 0.50 = 1.00 and 0.49499999 = 0.49 = 0.00.

      Delete
    2. Ed, in the accepted convention, you don't round twice.

      If you have 671.4x, you gotta round down to 671, no matter what x is; even if it's 671.49989.

      If you have 671.5x, you gotta round up to 672, no matter what x is.

      You could possibly jump between the two values if you add more and more digits to get more and more precise. But how I'd do it is keep all the digits I know, and then look at the first digit after the decimal point. It's easier and "more correct".

      Delete
    3. You're right, it's simpler (and probably more correct) to just look at the first decimal. My '2-stage rounding' has its origin in the fact that in an earlier version of FIFA's ranking table I automatically made a comparison between the two-decimal timeframe averages on the website and mine, just to be sure I calculated the stuff correctly.
      Anyway, I sort my ranking table always on the unrounded FIFA-points,

      Delete
    4. One last remark about the rounding FIFA applies. Take a look at Tahiti in the April 2015 ranking. They are presented as having 65.50 points = 66 pts. I calculate the unrounded FIFA-points as 65.498681 pts.
      Looking at the ranking POSITIONS Tahiti has got spot 186, together with Comoros and Sri Lanka (who both have 65 points). In front of Tahiti are Turks and Caicos Islands and Macau, who both have 66 points and share spot 184.
      So the conclusion can be that, although FIFA sometimes doesn't present the correctly rounded points in their ranking table, they do apply the correctly rounded points when assigning ranking positions. And in the calculation of the matchpoints for a match the ranking position of the opponent in the latest ranking is the only thing that really matters !

      Delete
    5. No, no further reply from Mr. Alex Stone on the rounding issue.

      Delete
  6. Oops, CPV numbers should read as 761.50 rounded up to 762.I calculate 761.495818181818 points (rounded up to 762)

    ReplyDelete
  7. Apparently I looked at the february ranking for NZL, I see that their March total is (correctly) 211 points. Sorry for the confusion.
    Doesn't take anything away from the inconsistent rounding-routine of FIFA.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Egypt will play against Jordan in April& Kuwait in May.How many points will had in July ranking if wins both games?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Why rank 146 and 145 not mentioned ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As you can see: Central African Republic, Lebanon and New Zealand all have the same FIFA-points (163) and thus are all three placed in the ranking on the same spot 144. Therefore spot 145 and 146 are non-existent. Next in the ranking is India with 161 points on spot 147.

      Delete
  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  12. AFCON 2017 qualifers draw were done today
    there will be the 1st game in June.kindly arrange for possible July ranking for Egypt if wins against Tanzania??

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hossam,

    With matches for the COSAFA-Cup 2015, African Nations Championship 2016 Q and African Cup of Nations 2017 Q now added to the calendar, the following July 2015 ranking for African teams is predicted by Elo (including a win for Egypt against Tanzania):

    Algeria (19 - 941)
    Cote d'Ivoire (20 - 930)
    Ghana (24 - 856)
    Tunisia (29 - 789)
    Senegal (38 - 716)
    Cameroon (39 - 700)
    Congo (44 - 656)
    Guinea (49 - 623)
    Equatorial Guinea (51 - 617)
    Egypt (52 - 616)
    Cape Verde Islands (55 - 608)
    Nigeria (56 - 601)
    Mali (58 - 571)
    Congo DR (60 - 556)
    Gabon (62 - 538)
    South Africa (65 - 527)
    Burkina Faso (66 - 519)
    Zambia (68 - 499)
    Uganda (70 - 485)
    Togo (74 - 443)
    Morocco (82 - 402)
    Mozambique (86 - 383)
    Angola (87 - 382)
    Sudan (90 - 372)
    Malawi (94 - 350)
    Rwanda (95 - 347)
    Ethiopia (100 - 327)
    Sierra Leone (103 - 318)
    Niger (106 - 310)
    Benin (109 - 282)
    Libya (114 - 262)
    Botswana (115 - 259)
    Zimbabwe (116 - 254)
    Kenya (118 - 241)
    Tanzania (121 - 238)
    Burundi (124 - 217)
    Lesotho (129 - 207)
    Namibia (137 - 178)
    Mauritania (145 - 153)
    Guinea-Bissau (150 - 131)
    Liberia (157 - 126)
    Central African Republic (164 - 111)
    Gambia (164 - 111)
    Madagascar (167 - 105)
    Chad (169 - 100)
    Swaziland (181 - 68)
    Mauritius (184 - 61)
    Seychelles (186 - 50)
    Sao Tome e Principe (188 - 48)
    Comoros (192 - 37)
    South Sudan (195 - 24)
    Eritrea (204 - 8)
    Somalia (205 - 6)
    Djibouti (207 - 4)

    ReplyDelete
  14. Thanks alot Ed for your effort with us .
    Waiting for detailed post for CAF July ranking after yesterday draw

    ReplyDelete