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Friday, June 5, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (5 June 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 3 June 2015.

Per scenario sims can be found here.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.


Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, England, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Italy
Pot 2: Slovakia, Czech Republic, Wales, Switzerland, Austria, France, Denmark, Iceland, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Pot 3: Scotland, Poland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland, Greece, Sweden, Serbia, Israel, Hungary
Pot 4: Slovenia, Republic of Ireland, Albania, Turkey, Norway, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Finland, Armenia
Pot 5: Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands, Moldova
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Georgia, Liechtenstein, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino, Andorra

No changes.

Pot 6

100.00% - San Marino
100.00% - Andorra
97.49% - Luxembourg
92.24% - Malta
91.68% - Liechtenstein
83.90% - Georgia
78.06% - Kazakhstan
35.54% - Moldova
18.57% - Faroe Islands
2.45% - Azerbaijan
0.04% - FYR Macedonia
0.03% - Lithuania

Pot 5

95.88% - Azerbaijan
91.74% - FYR Macedonia
88.96% - Cyprus
83.73% - Lithuania
82.40% - Latvia
81.14% - Estonia
80.21% - Belarus
72.43% - Faroe Islands
66.46% - Armenia
64.46% - Moldova
21.94% - Kazakhstan
21.38% - Finland
15.80% - Georgia
12.19% - Montenegro
8.32% - Liechtenstein
7.76% - Malta
2.51% - Luxembourg
2.37% - Bulgaria
0.31% - Norway
0.01% - Republic of Ireland

Pot 4

99.69% - Norway
99.41% - Turkey
97.63% - Bulgaria
86.52% - Montenegro
78.62% - Finland
57.62% - Albania
55.02% - Slovenia
49.46% - Republic of Ireland
47.59% - Israel
37.97% - Hungary
33.54% - Armenia
25.85% - Serbia
19.79% - Belarus
18.86% - Estonia
17.60% - Latvia
16.24% - Lithuania
12.79% - Northern Ireland
11.04% - Cyprus
9.00% - Faroe Islands
8.22% - FYR Macedonia
7.25% - Greece
4.69% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
3.24% - Sweden
1.67% - Azerbaijan
0.30% - Georgia
0.21% - Poland
0.18% - Scotland

Pot 3

95.40% - Sweden
85.59% - Greece
79.83% - Ukraine
75.13% - Poland
73.81% - Scotland
63.04% - Northern Ireland
61.91% - Hungary
57.65% - Iceland
57.05% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
54.48% - Serbia
50.48% - Republic of Ireland
42.38% - Albania
37.39% - Denmark
36.89% - Slovenia
27.09% - Israel
1.29% - Montenegro
0.59% - Turkey

Pot 2

99.31% - France
96.85% - Austria
95.84% - Switzerland
72.97% - Wales
65.55% - Czech Republic
64.85% - Slovakia
62.61% - Denmark
54.53% - Italy
42.35% - Iceland
38.26% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
33.93% - Croatia
26.01% - Scotland
25.32% - Israel
24.66% - Poland
24.17% - Northern Ireland
20.17% - Ukraine
19.67% - Serbia
12.64% - Spain
8.09% - Slovenia
7.16% - Greece
1.95% - Portugal
1.58% - England
1.36% - Sweden
0.12% - Hungary
0.05% - Republic of Ireland

Pot 1

100.00% - Germany
100.00% - Belgium
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Romania
98.42% - England
98.05% - Portugal
87.36% - Spain
66.07% - Croatia
45.47% - Italy
35.15% - Slovakia
34.45% - Czech Republic
27.03% - Wales
4.16% - Switzerland
3.15% - Austria
0.69% - France




14 comments:

  1. Hi, a win for Rep of Ireland against Scotland should guarantee a place in Pot 3? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Almost.

      Defeat vs. Scotland - Pot 4: 100%;
      Draw vs. Scotland - Pot 4: 100%;
      Win vs. Scotland - Pot 3: 97.1%; Pot 4: 2.9%;

      Delete
  2. Ps. That's after drawing against England today

    ReplyDelete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Why is Greece in the 3rd although being 28th in the Fifa Ranking (June)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because it's not the June ranking that counts, but july's ranking

      Delete
    2. Ok, then is it possible for Greece to lose so many points only in one month and drop to the 3rd group?

      Delete
    3. Yes. Greece will lose some of 2014's FIFA WC results (100% => 50%) and 2012's EURO results (30% => 20%). Other teams, which didn't participate at FIFA WC/EURO 2012, will often drop fewer points.

      Delete
  5. It's really stupid that for the WC qualification draw there would be taken into account the rankings where previous WC participants loses so much points because of 50% reducing the value of points they've gained on WC... The more one team gained the more it loose...
    I think that the next ranking after WC finish (as of July 2014) should has been used...

    ReplyDelete
  6. Here is the almost-complete July FIFA Ranking for UEFA: http://i.imgur.com/c8jopsm.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks
      Go Albaniaaaa ♥

      Delete
  7. Here's the final UEFA July ranking, used for the World Cup UEFA-qualification draw after the two remaining friendlies tonight. Note that Russia will be host and that Gibraltar is no FIFA-member.
    Italy lost to Portugal so Croatia stays in pot 1.

    nr team elo
    01 GER 1411
    02 BEL 1244
    03 NED 1204
    04 POR 1177
    05 ROU 1166
    06 ENG 1157
    07 WAL 1155
    08 ESP 1110
    09 CRO 1023
    ------
    10 SVK 1016
    11 AUT 1016
    12 ITA 1001
    13 SUI 0997
    14 CZE 0933
    15 FRA 0882
    16 ISL 0877
    17 DEN 0876
    18 BIH 0819
    ------
    19 UKR 0791
    ~~ RUS 0782
    20 SCO 0774
    21 POL 0769
    22 HUN 0763
    23 SWE 0752
    24 ALB 0722
    25 NIR 0721
    26 SRB 0662
    27 GRE 0661
    ------
    28 TUR 0627
    29 SVN 0626
    30 ISR 0620
    31 IRL 0608
    32 NOR 0495
    33 BUL 0489
    34 FRO 0456
    35 MNE 0423
    36 EST 0420
    ------
    37 CYP 0391
    38 LVA 0377
    39 ARM 0373
    40 FIN 0371
    41 BLR 0341
    42 MKD 0311
    43 AZE 0302
    44 LTU 0301
    45 MDA 0236
    ------
    46 KAZ 0195
    47 LUX 0187
    48 LIE 0182
    49 GEO 0165
    50 MLT 0157
    51 SMR 0040
    52 AND 0009

    ReplyDelete
  8. GROUP X: Wales, Iceland, Albania..... please!!!! :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Or GROUP Z: Germany, Italy, Poland.... NOOOOO!!!

      Delete