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Friday, October 16, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: Only two years left

Next update: October 2016.

Assuming FIFA will again use the October 2017 ranking to determine the seeds, the 0.3 time frame (games played between 24 and 36 months ago relative to the release date) closed a couple of days ago.


It's not looking good for some of the big teams, but there's plenty of time to climb in the rankings.

Need help? Just check the consulting page.

See the previous update.

Portugal, Chile and Austria replace Netherlands, France and Brazil in the list of seeds.


1 Germany 377
2 Portugal 366
3 Argentina 355
4 Belgium 351
5 Chile 332
6 Colombia 329
7 Austria 314
8 Brazil 305
9 England 301
9 Spain 301
11 Wales 291
12 Romania 282
13 Netherlands 275
14 Switzerland 268
15 Uruguay 256
16 France 251
17 Slovakia 241
18 Croatia 240
19 Czech Republic 230
20 Côte d'Ivoire 228
20 Northern Ireland 228
22 Algeria 227
23 Iceland 224
24 Italy 223
24 Bosnia-Herzegovina 223
26 Mexico 219
27 Turkey 213
28 Ghana 208
29 Senegal 198
29 Albania 198

USA are 42nd.

Right now, the seeds for the 2018 World Cup would be: Russia, Germany, Portugal, Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Colombia and Austria.

27 comments:

  1. Edgar, are you sure?
    Next update: October 2019...

    ReplyDelete
  2. A lot of the matches were played on 12 Oct 2015. Do these matches go into the 0.3 or 0.5 timeframe?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hm, in my tables I got the same numbers as you, except for the teams that played matches on 12 Oct 2015: England, Spain, Slovakia, Switzerland, Austria.

      When I add up the 0.2 and 0.3 timeframes for these teams, I get:
      Spain 276,
      Switzerland 258,
      Austria 322,
      Slovakia 248,
      England 302.

      Could you please write your weighted averages for 0.2 and 0.3 timeframe for at least one of these 5 countries, so I can find out where is my mistake?

      Delete
    2. I found out how you got your numbers. These five teams played matches both on 12 Oct 2014 and 12 Oct 2015. The former match you put into the 0.2 timeframe, and the latter into the 0.3 timeframe, the opposite of what you said. Is that correct?

      Delete
    3. *exception from the above is Switzerland who did not play a match on 12 Oct 2014, but played on 12 Oct 2015.

      Delete
    4. Sorry nogomet, I thought you meant 13 October. As long as you got the same numbers, it must be correct.

      Delete
    5. So just to be clear, what are the corresponding dates for each timeframe? According to your numbers, it should be something like this:

      13 Oct 2016 - 10 Oct 2017 --> 1.0 timeframe
      13 Oct 2015 - 12 Oct 2016 --> 0.5 timeframe
      13 Oct 2014 - 12 Oct 2015 --> 0.3 timeframe
      12 Oct 2013 - 12 Oct 2014 --> 0.2 timeframe

      The last matches of qualifiers will be played on 10 Oct 2017, only two days before the new FIFA ranking is published.

      Delete
    6. Actually, looking at my code, each windows is 365 days long going back from the release date, with the exception of the 0.1 time frame - 366 days long.

      Delete
    7. So, what are the correct dates then?

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    8. 0.2 starts on 2013-10-12
      0.3 starts on 2014-10-13
      0.5 starts on 2015-10-13
      1.0 starts on 2016-10-12

      Delete
    9. Thanks. Not a very intuitive approach FIFA uses there.

      Delete
  3. I still don't understand how these timeframes are calculated... why 365 or 366?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's simply how it is, Jeroen. Just let go of flimsy concepts like logic and go with the FIFA flow :)

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    2. ok, but how can you predict it? I don't see any logic, hasn't got anything to do with leap years...

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    3. What's to predict? The oldest one is always 366. All the others 365. Not logical, but it's always the same. I got this explanation from FIFA long time ago.

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    4. ah, ok :). I thought the 0.1 timeframe is 366 days by accident, not by default :).

      Delete
  4. hey Ed
    Example, FIFA published December FIFA ranking in 19/12/2014 and 5/12/2015
    so the newest one is from 19/12/2014 to 5/12/2015 or 6/12/2014 to 5/12/2015 ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The time frames are determined only by the current release date.

      Delete
    2. ok Ed
      now I know why there's problem when I calculate my NT points
      tks so much :D

      Delete
  5. Are the title holders always seeded in the final tournament? For instance, if Germany qualifies for the WC, but ends below 7th place in October 2017 rankings, will they be seeded?

    ReplyDelete
  6. See http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Download/competitions/Regulations/01/87/54/21/1875421_DOWNLOAD.pdf (art. 31.2 and 41.2). Basically: FIFA can change everything last minute,according to "sportive and geographical" reasons.

    I don't think the problem ever occured, but i'd doubt if Germany would be below top 7, they'd be seeded. Not because of sportive criteria, but because CONMEBOL and other non-UEFA bobo's wouldn't agree to lose a seed to UEFA.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So there's no article saying that the title holder is seeded. They can do whatever they want. Ludicrous.

      Given that we have another Copa America next year, I think it's a given that we'll have 4 CONMEBOL + 3 UEFA + Russia as seeded teams in the WC 2018.

      Delete
  7. It seems like FIFA might have new draw methods. At the Olympic draw as well as for the forthcoming U17 Women's World Cup draw, there were no regional pots as all pots were based on the ranking. Hopefully, this is a sign for what we can expect for the 2018 World Cup draw. It would be much fairer than the current system.
    At both draws, the ranking system has been performances at the last four tournaments. Hopefully, that's just because there is no normal ranking for youth tournaments like that. Even the FIFA ranking would probably be better than doing that for 2018. The best would ofc be a reformed FIFA ranking with less emphasis on the most recent year or a system like ELO

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The U17 Women's World Cup draw post here:

      Pot 1
      Jordan
      Japan
      Germany
      Korea DPR

      Pot 2
      Nigeria
      Spain
      Venezuela
      Ghana

      Pot 3
      Canada
      USA
      Mexico
      Brazil

      Pot 4
      New Zealand
      England
      Paraguay
      Camerooon

      http://www.fifa.com/u17womensworldcup/news/y=2016/m=5/news=jordan-2016-draw-to-be-streamed-live-2792788.html?intcmp=fifacom_hp_module_news

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    2. That would be great, but I'm not getting my hopes up :)

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